MOSCOW. Aug 20 (Interfax) - A high-profile Russian analyst argued on Wednesday that there is a good chance Russia will recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states.

"It is a realistic prospect. And I think it's a position that makes sense today. Under current circumstances, which are in effect an emergency, such recognition would be seen as a morally justified move even by those who are not prepared to share it with Russia," Gleb Pavlovsky, head of the Effective Policy Foundation, told Interfax.

Among other things, recognizing the independence of the two breakaway Georgian provinces would be essential to Russia attaining its declared objective of protecting South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Pavlovsky argued.

"From the point of view of real politics, (recognizing the two regions' independence) would lay the basis for the necessary presence of Russian armed forces and would thereby provide a guarantee of security," he said.

Until Georgian troops stormed South Ossetia on August 8, Russia had not been prepared to put the status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia on its agenda, Pavlovsky said.

"But the situation has changed, and Russia, having paid the lives of its soldiers for saving the people of South Ossetia, must keep defending them. Otherwise, the success of our armed forces will be senseless and we will end up with a situation worse than that before August 8," he said.

Besides, recognizing the independence of the two territories would facilitate building a pan-Caucasus security system, Pavlovsky said. It would, for example, make is easier to put into practice a proposal by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for setting up a Caucasus union, the analyst said.