#15 - JRL 2008-15 - JRL Home
Russia Profile
22 January 2008
20 Foreign Policy Questions for Medvedev
How Does the Successor View Russia’s Place in the World?
Comment by Vladimir Frolov
Last week, First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev accompanied President
Vladimir Putin to Bulgaria in his new capacity as a soon-to-be-registered
presidential candidate. Although he was there more as chairman of the board of
Gazprom than the likely next president of Russia, Medvedev’s separate meetings
with Bulgarian leaders were clearly meant to present him to a friendly foreign
audience.
In his campaign trips to the Russian regions, justifiably, Medvedev has been
emphasizing social and economic issues. After all, during this time of relative
prosperity and peace, the election will be decided not on foreign policy, but on
housing construction, pension plans and drug reimbursement programs.
But this is a presidential election, and in Russia, presidents set the
country’s foreign policy and command the troops. For a candidate, focusing on
social development is not enough; you need to demonstrate at least some
expertise in foreign and defense policy.
During the 2000 elections, Putin passed the test on both counts – he was a
former KGB foreign intelligence officer who had received solid training in
international relations and had lived more than five years in a foreign country.
He had also served as deputy mayor of St. Petersburg in charge of international
cooperation projects. Before he was appointed prime minister, he had been chief
of the FSB and the Security Council. The military, the FSB and the Foreign
Ministry never questioned his expertise.
But Medvedev is a foreign policy novice. Nothing in his life experience has
prepared him for the kind of international challenges that he will have to face
in the very short future. He has been, by and large, a very good lawyer and a
capable administrator. Of course, he has been sitting in on all the closed
security council meetings chaired by Putin and has undoubtedly learned a lot. He
also ran some international errands for Putin as his chief of staff, including
some sensitive missions to Kazakhstan and Ukraine as well as a trip to
Washington.
But what do we really know about Medvedev’s own foreign policy views? Where
is he likely to lead Russia internationally? We know he has pledged continuity
with Putin’s course, but what does that mean specifically on the foreign policy
front?
Medvedev has said that that he would soon unveil his electoral program, and
it is possible that he might even do it today at the meeting of the Russian
Civic Forum. But I think he needs to plan a special address to prove his
expertise on key international issues. In my view, he needs to break with
Putin’s bizarre tradition of presenting his major foreign policy initiatives to
foreign audiences first. Medvedev would do well by going to a major Russian
university – his alma mater in St. Petersburg would be a good fit – to lay out
his foreign policy agenda and talk to the students and the Russian audience at
large about his vision for Russia’s place in the globalized world.
Here are a few questions that I think Medvedev should answer in such a
speech.
How are you going to set policy? Will you lay out your own strategy and
assemble your own foreign policy team or will you defer on major issues to Prime
Minister Putin and his men? Who will be your national security advisor? Your
foreign minister? How are you going to manage the bickering foreign policy and
security agencies, some of which seem to have their own agendas? Will you get
the security services out of the business of running their own foreign policies,
particularly in the former Soviet Union? Will you revamp the security council,
which has been languishing in its comatose state of political irrelevance? Will
you continue Putin’s Saturday sessions with the Security Council, and, if so,
who will preside at those meetings?
How are you going to deal with the military? Will you let the chief of the
Army’s General Staff make political statements committing Russia to a nuclear
strategy of first use and preemption, as General Yury Baluevsky just did over
the weekend? A preemptive nuclear strike is a very serious thing. The strategic
consequences such an act would entail are no laughing matter. Setting policy on
such highly controversial issues that touch the core of national security
strategy is a clear presidential prerogative that should be spelled out in a
doctrinal document signed by the president. This is none of General Baluevsky’s
business. His job is to execute policy, not set it.
What is your strategy for the former Soviet Union, particularly with regard
to the energy rich Central Asian states? As president, what will you do if at
some point in your presidency, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and, to a lesser extent,
Kazakhstan were to refuse to supply Russia with the amounts of natural gas it
needs to replace its own gas contracted for exports to Europe? What are you
going to do to countervail China’s influence in Central Asia?
How will you repair Russia’s strained engagement with the United States and
the EU to minimize Russia’s risks and maximize Russia’s opportunities? What will
you do if the United States and NATO deploy a missile defense system in Eastern
Europe over Russian objections? How will you react to Kosovo’s unilateral
declaration of independence and the likelihood that the United States and the EU
will recognize Kosovo? Will you recognize Transdnistria, Abkhazia and South
Ossetia as independent states once Kosovo’s independence is recognized
internationally?
How do you see Russia’s role in the Middle East? Should we bring more
resources to bear to produce a meaningful outcome for the Israeli-Palestinian
peace process? How do we approach Iraq once the United States restores the
country to sovereignty? What do we do with the Iranian nuclear program? The
weapons are not there yet, but the know-how seems to be within reach.
Do you share the international concerns about global warming? Do you support
policies to stimulate research on alternative fuels and alternative energy
sources in Russia?
What are you going to do in case major international demand depletes Russia’s
oil and gas reserves on your watch? What is your Plan B?
We do not expect an answer to all of these questions from Medvedev the
presidential candidate. But we do have the right to demand it from Medvedev the
president.
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