#34 - JRL 2008-126 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
July 2, 2008
What kind of nuclear forces does Russia need?
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Kislyakov) - If the Defense
Ministry sticks to its plans to devote three-fourths of this year's booster
rocket launches to placing new satellites in orbit, there is hope that our
future strategic nuclear missile forces will be not only the sword, but also a
strong shield, of our country.
Besides missiles, silos and submarines, modern nuclear weapons systems also
depend on a space-based component, comprising telecommunications and early
warning satellites. Today, timely and precise information on a nuclear attack
and adequate counter-measures are equally necessary for the effective use of
strategic missile systems.
In other words, it is necessary to develop a system capable of working
effectively with both enemy and friendly missile defenses operating in the same
space. Yury Solomonov, director of the Moscow Heat Engineering Institute and one
of Russia's principal developers of strategic missile systems, says:
"Advanced strategic systems need to be adaptable to the full-scale deployment
of missile defense systems, including space-based components.
"A modern missile defense system comprises two principle components. The data
component requires military satellites capable of recording strategic nuclear
capabilities and cataloguing the trajectory parameters and combat
characteristics of individual missiles. This is crucial for the second
component, which includes data processing and means of intercept. This could
include either traditional interceptor missiles, or various weapons based on new
physical principles.
"These basic principles must be built into the systems which are to replace
the current weaponry".
This entails three things: A nuclear power should have a strong network of
data service satellites at its disposal, deploy its own missile defense
capability, and ensure that the whole system functions as a single entity, aimed
at protecting the country from strategic threats.
Frankly, Russia will not be capable of deploying a missile defense system of
such complexity in the near future, due to a combination of weak infrastructure
and an absence of political will. Even more alarming is the fact that the
current early warning system is insufficient. By the beginning of this year only
three Russian early warning satellites remained in orbit, which is not
sufficient to form a joint data and missile-firing complex.
With so few satellites in operation, potentially fatal errors in missile
attack detection become more likely. A false alarm, for example, could force the
high command to take the decision to retaliate.
The ground based warning system is also experiencing problems. Russia
abandoned early warning radar installations at Sevastopol and Mukachevo in
Ukraine for economic and political reasons. The radar station in Armavir, meant
to fill the "gap", has still not been put on alert, and the date for doing so is
constantly being postponed.
In late June it was reported that a new early warning satellite had been
launched into orbit. Unfortunately, it is still premature to talk about Russian
strategic missile systems being adjusted to modern requirements.
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