#33 - JRL 2008-119 - JRL Home
Moscow News
http://www.mnweekly.ru/
June 19, 2008
The End of a Fairytale
By Marina Pustilnik
When British Petroleum and a group of Russian billionaire owners of TNK oil
signed their partnership deal, which created TNK-BP, back in 2003, it was not
only the largest foreign investment in Russia to date, it was also a sign of
hope. Hope that Russian companies can partner with foreign energy majors, learn
from them and expand their presence on the international markets. That was an
age of innocence. As this partnership is now unraveling with mutual accusations
on both sides and active propaganda by both shareholder groups, it is becoming
clear that this age is over. It also shows that apples and oranges are only good
together in a fruit salad - putting two different interest groups under one
venture umbrella is unlikely to reap much success.
TNK-BP has been under much pressure in recent months. First, the company had
to give up control over the giant Kovykta gas field in the Irkutsk region to
Russia's gas monopoly Gazprom, because the state-backed firm refused to open up
its pipelines otherwise.
The Russian-British firm was then subjected to back-tax checks and cases, its
foreign specialists had their work visas revoked and there was even an
industrial espionage case involving a TNK-BP employee. All of this was happening
as TNK-BP was nearing the end of the 5-year lock-up period, during which the
partners could not sell their stakes.
Analysts viewed this as the state applying pressure; driving BP to agree to
take on a new partner instead of the Russian billionaires. That partner would
most likely be either Gazprom or Rosneft. The general feeling was that the
British would be uncomfortable with such a partnership, but reality proved to be
much more interesting.
During all those months the Russian shareholders of TNK-BP denied any plans
to sell their stakes, while trouble was brewing. Several weeks ago the Russian
shareholders launched an attack on TNK-BP CEO Robert Dudley, accusing him of
mismanagement and demanding his replacement. BP tried to keep up appearances at
first, but over the last week accusations started sprouting from both sides.
BP Chairman Peter Sutherland accused his Russian partners of reverting to the
raider tactics of 1990s and of trying to wrest full control and - ultimately -
ownership of the com-pany. Russian billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Viktor
Vekselberg accuse BP of sabotaging TNK-BP's international growth and IPO plans.
At the same time the Russian shareholders say they are ready to sign an
agreement on a new lock-up period, while sources close to BP say that the
international energy giant wants guarantees of a partnership with Gazprom or
Rosneft before it buys the billionaires' stakes.
On top of that neither Gazprom nor Rosneft seem capable of affording the 50
percent stake in TNK-BP, which is worth over $20 billion according to expert
estimates. Both state companies have spread themselves thin with various
investments, and a source close to Gazprom said a couple of weeks ago there is
no possibility of acquisition in the next 18 months.
The major problem of TNK-BP is, of course, the conflict of interests. On the
one hand you have an international giant, which is interested in improving the
quality of its subsidiary's operations, but it is mostly interested in getting
oil and gas from the company while promoting its original brand - BP. On the
other hand you have private shareholders, who want both high dividends and the
growth of the company's value.
The Russian shareholders of TNK-BP are powerful men who are used to managing
the assets they own. BP forced them to give up operational control, but they
were willing to do it because the payoff was enough. Now the billionaires want
full parity - and BP sees that as raiding.
It's as if BP does not understand that the "raider tactics" of its current
partners will seem like really innocent stuff compared to the new rules of play
that Gazprom or Rosneft would most likely implement if a deal ever goes through.
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