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Voice of America
2 June 2008
Russia May Profit from Private Energy Dispute
By Peter Fedynsky
Moscow
Russia's latest struggle over control of a private energy company appears
linked to state politics and differing views among foreign and domestic
investors about profits and risk. At stake is the leadership and direction of
the British-Russian energy company TNK-BP. VOA Moscow Correspondent Peter
Fedynsky reports the winner could be Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom.
Exactly 50 percent of TNK-BP is owned by Britain's BP oil company. The other
half is controlled by three Russian billionaires, Viktor Vekselberg, Mikhail
Fridman and Len Blavatnik, owners of the Alfa-Access-Renova consortium. They are
demanding the resignation of TNK-BP chairman Robert Dudley, accusing him of
favoring shareholders on the British side of the company. Russian investors are
also at odds over company development strategy.
Natalia Milchakova, energy analyst with Russia's Otkrytia Investment
Corporation, told VOA that ironically, the British side wants to focus on
projects in Russia, but Russian investors prefer development abroad, first of
all in Central Asia.
Milchakova says TNK-BP has excellent opportunities to increase production in
Russia, which also has good processing capacity. The analyst adds that Russian
investors want to tackle riskier projects. She also asks why, if reasonable
profits can be made in Russia without inordinate risk.
Another observer, Yegeniy Volk, manager of Moscow's Heritage Foundation think
tank, says the British and Russian attitudes toward profit and risk reflect two
different business traditions.
Volk says Russians are interested in a quick profit and give little thought
to strategic considerations, which -- he notes -- explains recent energy
production declines in Russia. Western business, according to Volk, is more
civilized and oriented toward future strategic concerns. Russian business, he
says has little faith in the country's investment climate because there have
been too many changes and redistributions, so the desire for short term profit
often prevails over other considerations, such as infrastructure investment.
The TNK-BP dispute comes amid increasing pressure in recent months from the
Russian government. In March, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, raided the
company's Moscow headquarters and accused one of its employees of industrial
espionage. The company's foreign employees have also had problems getting
Russian visas.
In an interview published Saturday in the French newspaper Le Monde, Russian
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says he warned five years ago against TNK-BP's
50-50 ownership arrangement, noting that problems would emerge in the absence of
clearly defined authority.
Konstantin Simonov, general director of Russia's National Energy Security
Foundation, says the company's leadership drift is making the Kremlin nervous,
because production and profits could suffer. Simonov is one of many analysts who
say TNK-BP's problems make it a prime target for a government takeover.
Simonov says Mr. Putin's logic is clear, noting the prime minister can see
that nobody is in charge of the company and its affairs are a mess. The analyst
says Mr. Putin can also see the infighting among investors and a new story
appearing everyday, which makes it imperative that a leader emerge quickly.
Simonov says that leader could well be one of Russia's state owned energy
companies.
The likely candidate is energy giant Gazprom, which dismantled Russia's
largest private oil company, Yukos, and also seized control of the Sakhalin-2
gas project from Royal Dutch Shell. And last year, the Kremlin pressured British
Petroleum to give up its stake in Siberia's Kovykta field, one of the world's
largest gas deposits.
TNK-BP has nine billion barrels of proven reserves and accounts for about 16
percent of Russia's entire oil output.
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