THE PUTIN/MEDVEDEV RELATIONSHIP
Puppetry, Sham or an Inherently Russian Solution

American media is obsessing over Russia's future governance - whether Medvedev will kowtow to Putin's whims, Putin will wrest power again, or Medvedev will challenge Putin and "become his own man." The following is another point of view.

First, this is Russia being scrutinized - not America or western Europe, which is easy to forget when analyzing things Russian. It's helpful to keep in mind that there has been no experience with real democratic governance for a thousand years in Russia - and Russians aren't ready to make that leap just yet. The current Putin/Medvedev coupling is a practical solution for both Russian citizens and their leaders. It's no accident that a high percentage of the country voted for this combination.

Appointing leaders is deeply embedded in Russia's traditions. Even in elementary schools, class leaders haven't emerged organically. It's the Russian teacher who appoints a class leader, and their peers have reportedly accepted this method for generations. From classrooms to hospitals, military, institutes and to politics, this is how leadership in Russia has evolved. Even today Russian citizens aren't all that comfortable with the 'rough and tumble' of electoral competition.

In 2003 I sat in a Moscow hall with 100 successful Russian entrepreneurs, all CCI alumni from 30 Russian regions. They needed to pick a leader and board for their new grassroots association. After much difficulty, they said that they didn't want to choose, but that they would accept whoever I would choose as their leader. I deferred saying it was their association, not mine. A leader was reluctantly arrived at, and it was even more difficult to select board members. At last the board was selected, but unfortunately those chosen were the weakest entrepreneurs in the room. Later in private I asked, why were the weakest chosen? One offered, "Well, maybe so we could control them," another, "We don't know whether we can trust the strong ones," another, "Maybe power would corrupt them, if they are weak it won't matter." In the months ahead, the leader chosen was not supported, the board members were too inexperienced to lead - and unfortunately, the first CCI association of entrepreneurs died a natural death. This process had nothing to do with the native intelligence or education of the entrepreneurs, or a desire for autocracy - but everything to do with lifetimes of conditioning from another perspective.

Puzzling over many similar situations, I have finally begun to accept the unconscious elements at work in Russia society which are based on their history and conditioning: 1) Russians find it quite difficult to promote themselves and are suspicious when others promote themselves; 2) are overly concerned what power will do to their peers or unknown contenders; 3) don't like elevating one peer above another; 4) don't consider it sport to compete with peers for power; 5) are comfortable when someone whom they trust appoints others to positions of power; 6) if someone has already proven themselves in situations of power, they believe they naturally should continue; and lastly, 7) making changes in leadership when things are operating well makes no sense to Russians. All of this is the opposite to western conditioning.

While Americans furl their brows and pen endless articles about Putin appointing Medvedev and Russia's "devolving democracy", it would be well to admit that 80 to 90% of Russia's population sees no reason to change leadership during this election year. They don't understand why they should take a chance on new stock.... unless it is someone who the leader himself appoints. Putin has proven himself to the rank and file Russian. The 'why' is no mystery - Russia has come out of a bottomless pit of devastation under his eight-year tenure and this bodes well for the future.

Most Russians are comfortable with Putin's presidential transition strategy - so long as he stays close to mentor his choice. This insures that the current direction will continue. Americans can argue that Russia's media control distorts what Russian citizens think and want from their president - but even independent entrepreneurs who get their news from Internet, support the Putin direction. To Russian citizens across most walks of life, it would be unconscionable for Putin to retire to the ski slopes, now that he has amassed the skills for handling the country internally and externally.

Putin's relationship with Medvedev: again, this relationship has to be viewed from a Russian perspective, not a western one. In Russia, bonds form early in life: during school years, among those with roots in the same university, or those who have worked together through tough times - these roots create deep, life-long bonds. This is an expected and accepted fact throughout Russia.

Putin and Medvedev have the same roots - they problem-solved, side-by-side, in Petersburg during Russia's desperate 90s. Putin was Medvedev's trusted mentor. In Russia this counts big. They are both devoted to a practical vision and strategy for Russia. Such relationships in Russia have a quality seldom found in the west. Competition isn't an issue; deference, trust and respect exists toward the elder - and trust, promotion and a sense of responsibility for, is accorded the protege. Neither side will transgress these bonds.

We in the west are so accustomed to "inevitable" competition between alpha males and testosterone politics, that we really don't, or perhaps can't, comprehend this special relatedness that occurs, not infrequently, across Russia. Conversely, it is also true that outside these, and other trusted relationships among Russians, a general distrust of other fellow citizens exists - which complicates Russia's evolution toward development of political parties and electoral politics.

My prediction is that Medvedev and Putin will get along collaboratively, with genuine give and take, with respect and trust - and four years from now theirs will still be a relatively seamless connection based on their long-standing friendship and on solving Russia's pressing internal and external problems. Needless to say, Medvedev will have no interest in "besting" his mentor and friend.

Since few, if any, western journalists and pundits understand this type of relationship, they will continue to cobble together sensational stories and manufacture evidences that there are grave tensions between these two - which will say more about the west's mentality than about the Putin/Medvedev relationship.