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Moscow Times
May 29, 2008
Putin Visit Muddies The Policy Picture
By Nikolaus Twickel / Staff Writer
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's trip to Paris on Thursday for a two-day visit
will be watched closely for the answers that it might provide to a vexing
question: Just who is the country's most important figure when it comes to
foreign policy?
As is the case on the domestic front, there has been no clear indication yet
of who will set the tone in the country's foreign relations after Putin was
replaced in the Kremlin by his hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev. Analysts
said they remained puzzled as to how power is being shared by the Kremlin and
the White House.
During the working visit to France, his first trip abroad as prime minister,
Putin will hold talks with French Prime Minister Francois Fillon, but he also
plans to meet with his former counterpart, French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The
two will have a "working dinner" at the Elysee Palace on Thursday evening,
French Embassy spokesman Sylvain Guiaugue said Wednesday.
It is a rare honor for a foreign head of government to have dinner with
France's head of state. "It is unusual, but it happens," Guiaugue said.
Analysts said the trip demonstrated Putin's extraordinary authority as prime
minister.
"There is no question that he is much more powerful than that of any other
prime minister in Russian postcommunist history," said Masha Lipman, editor of
the Pro et Contra journal, published by the Moscow Carnegie Center.
Lipman added that Putin had not only formulated, but also implemented the
country's foreign policy during his two presidential terms.
The White House dismissed all speculation about leadership questions as
nonsense.
"Russia's foreign policy is determined by the president, as stipulated by the
Constitution," said Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov. "There can be absolutely
no question about this."
Peskov also confirmed that Putin planned to meet with U.S. President George
W. Bush in August at the Olympic Games in Beijing.
He also said that, as prime minister, Putin remained an important
international actor.
"The executive's range of power in international contacts is also very high,"
he said.
Both French and Russian officials explained that Putin's visit was the result
of an invitation made by Sarkozy.
"During his visit to Moscow last October, President Sarkozy invited Mr. Putin
to come to Paris after his presidential term ends," Guiaugue said.
He added that the invitation had been issued regardless of Putin's future
role.
"It was totally unknown then what post he would hold after stepping down,"
Guiaugue said.
Putin is being accompanied on the trip by a group of government officials and
business leaders, including Industry and Trade Minister Viktor Khristenko, White
House chief of staff Sergei Sobyanin, Rosatom chief Sergei Kiriyenko,
Vneshekonombank chairman Vladimir Dmitriyev and AvtoVAZ president Boris
Alyoshin.
Putin's wife, Lyudmila, will not be making the trip.
"This is a working visit," Peskov said.
The talks with Fillon on Thursday afternoon will focus on economic
cooperation in the spheres of energy, aerospace, transportation and
infrastructure, embassy spokesman Guiaugue said.
The country's trade with France grew from $5.8 billion in 2006 to $16.3
billion last year.
France is one of the world's biggest producers of atomic-energy equipment. It
is also home to some core units of EADS, the European aerospace group, in which
Russia's state-owned Development Bank owns a 5 percent stake.
Another aspect of the trip will be preparation for negotiations over a new
cooperation agreement with the European Union, set to begin at the EU-Russia
summit in Khanty-Mansiisk in June.
France will assume the EU's rotating presidency in July, and Foreign Minister
Bernard Kouchner set out his country's priorities for relations with Russia
during a visit to Moscow last week.
"The talks should be interpreted as preparation for the French presidency,"
said Thomas Gomart, an analyst at the French Institute of International Affairs,
adding that energy was likely to dominate the French agenda.
"Russia may not be at the top of the government's interests, but energy is,"
Gomart said by telephone from Paris.
He said it was good that the Paris talks were still on after the leadership
change in Moscow, but the Carnegie Center's Lipman warned that the leadership
question was still an issue.
"A year ago, we thought it would be clear as soon as Putin named his
successor," Lipman said. "But as it turns out, we do not have any better answer
today."
Alexei Makarkin, an analyst at the Center of Political Technologies, said
Putin and Medvedev would share powers in both domestic and foreign affairs.
"They will divide influence in both spheres," he said, adding that the
country's foreign policy will continue to be focused on both the East and West.
"Putin goes to France, Medvedev to China, Germany and then the G8 [summit in
Japan]. Then someone will go to India and the United States," he said.
Medvedev's choice of Kazakhstan and China for his first foreign trip as head
of state last week was broadly interpreted as a signal he would follow an
Asia-first strategy.
The French have also invited Medvedev to visit Paris.
"Sarkozy invited President Medvedev when he called him to congratulate him on
his election, and Foreign Minister Kouchner repeated this invitation during his
visit last week," Guiaugue said.
But Medvedev promised German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier during
an earlier meeting in the Kremlin that he would visit Germany on his first trip
to the West, in early June.
At the time, reporters traveling with Steinmeier said he had asked for a
meeting with Putin but was rebuffed with the explanation that the prime minister
was not responsible for foreign policy.
Spokespeople for both sides dismissed the reports at the time.
n Sarkozy said Wednesday that he would propose a European Union partnership
with Ukraine that would lead to Kiev's eventual membership.
"As head of the European Council, I will want to propose a partnership for
Ukraine so that it could finally join [the EU]," Sarkozy told a joint news
conference with Polish President Lech Kaczynski in Warsaw, Reuters reported.
It was the first time France, traditionally lukewarm on EU enlargement, has
raised the possibility of Ukrainian membership. Sarkozy did not elaborate, and
it was not clear when he envisioned Ukraine qualifying for EU accession.
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