#38 - JRL 2008-104 - JRL Home
Jamestown Foundation
www.Jamestown.org
Eurasia Daily Monitor
Volume 5, Number 100
May 27, 2008
RUSSIA AND CHINA: UNITED BY FOREIGN POLICY, DIVIDED BY
ENERGY PRICES
By Sergei Blagov
The Kremlin has repeatedly pledged to forge what it calls a "strategic
partnership" with China, and President Dmitry Medvedev came to the Chinese
capital to reiterate these pledges. But while Moscow's and Beijing's respective
positions have converged on international issues, bilateral economic ties have
apparently remained affected by disagreements on energy.
In their joint official pronouncements, both nations have been using vaguely
worded anti-Western statements. Medvedev and his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao
signed a joint declaration on May 23, urging nations to combat international
terrorism according to international law and "without double standards." The
statement came as an apparent reference to what the signatories viewed as
illegitimate Western maneuverings, based on double standards (Interfax,
ITAR-Tass, May 23)
Medvedev hailed the joint declaration as an example of what he described as
ongoing top level foreign policy dialogue between Moscow and Beijing. Apart from
the joint declaration, both nations signed a series of deals worth about $1
billion, including an agreement between Russia's Techsnabexport and China's
nuclear energy agency (Interfax, May 23).
The joint declaration also urged the prohibiting of weapons in outer space
and suggested signing a binding international agreement on this. Efforts to
create a global missile defense system did not help sustain strategic stability
and hindered international non-proliferation efforts, the declaration said
(Interfax, RIA-Novosti, May 23).
The statement apparently echoed earlier demands by Russia and China that the
United Nations Disarmament Conference, suspended in 1994, be re-launched as a
special committee for the prevention of arms race in space,. In February 2008
Russia and China announced that they had drafted a treaty to prohibit the
deployment of weapons in outer space to be discussed by the United Nations
Disarmament Conference. Moscow and Beijing are understood to view the deployment
of weapons in outer space, including plans for a U.S. missile defense system, as
a threat to their respective nuclear deterrents.
Following talks in Beijing, Medvedev said that Russia would prioritize
high-tech sectors, including nuclear energy, aerospace and nanotechnology, in
its trade relations with China. Medvedev also said that bilateral commerce would
exceed $60 billion before 2010 (Interfax, May 23).
Medvedev's statement came in an apparent reference to his predecessor's
earlier pledges. In January 2006 then Russian President Vladimir Putin announced
plans to raise bilateral trade to $60-$80 billion a year by 2010.
In 2007 Russia’s trade with China reached $40.3 billion, according to Russian
government data. Meanwhile, the figure was put at $48.16 billion or 44.3 percent
up from the previous year, according to Russian foreign trade estimates and
Chinese statistics. For the first time since the Soviet collapse in 1991, China
recorded a healthy $8.76 billion surplus in its trade with Russia. Discrepancies
between Russian and Chinese statistics have been explained by the so-called
"gray" trade phenomenon -- semi-legal cross-border commerce.
In the meantime, Russian oil exports to China were going down, apparently
because the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) remained reluctant to accept
the import prices of crude oil supplied to China by Rosneft. In 2007 oil
deliveries to China mainly by the state-run oil company Rosneft totaled 14.5
millions tons, down 9 percent in terms of volume.
Nonetheless, Medvedev announced ahead of his trip to Beijing that Russian
energy supplies had reached $6.7 billion in 2007, or up from $500 million in
2001. He said that Russia and China had agreed to build an off-shoot from the
Eastern Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline (ESPO) to China. Medvedev also said that
negotiations between Rosneft and CNPC were nearing completion, but did not
elaborate (Interfax, May 22). In April 2008, Russia's Industry and Energy
Ministry made it clear that negotiations on the ESPO pipeline spur were stalled
because Rosneft and CNPC remained divided over oil export volumes and prices.
Russian and Chinese companies tentatively agreed on the ESPO off-shot when
Putin visited China in March 2006. Two years ago, Putin promised to export
Russian gas to China from both Eastern and Western Siberia, up to 30-40 billion
cubic meters of gas a year from each region. He also pledged to build a $10
billion new pipeline, tentatively called Altai, due to be commissioned in 2011.
Also in March 2006, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and CNPC head Chen Geng signed
a memorandum on the delivery of Russian natural gas to China, a follow-up of
partnership deal signed in October 2004. Miller also said Gazprom had agreed on
a price formula for gas deliveries with its Chinese partners.
Interestingly, ahead of his trip to Beijing, Medvedev said both sides had
been considering exports of Russian gas to China from Eastern and Western
Siberia, adding that "technological details are still being discussed." Medvedev
also said that "negotiations were ongoing to finalize the price formula of
Russian gas supplies to Chinese consumers" (Interfax, May 22). Therefore, Russia
and China apparently struggled to agree on the gas price formula, thus forcing
the Altai gas pipeline project to remain on a drawing board.
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