#34 - JRL 2007-87 - JRL Home
Ukraine: Did West Pull Up Stakes Too Soon?
By Brian Whitmore
Copyright (c) 2007. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org
PRAGUE, April 12, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Two years ago, Viktor Yushchenko was
hailed as a conquering hero in many Western capitals.
The U.S. Congress, hosting the newly annointed Ukrainian president in April
2005, welcomed his arrival with boisterous enthusiasm, chanting his name and
cheering as he thanked "the entire American nation" for its support.
That speech, and one in Germany's Bundestag a month earlier, were part of a
postrevolutionary victory lap after the massive public protests of the Orange
Revolution propelled Yushchenko into the Ukrainian presidency -- and reduced his
Moscow-backed rival, Viktor Yanukovych, to political ignominy.
Now Yushchenko and Yanukovych are once again locking horns.
This time, however, Yanukovych is prime minister and head of the lynchpin
party in parliament's ruling coalition. And the cheers of Western support for
Yushchenko? Nowhere to be heard.
"Any political questions in Ukraine need to be resolved by the Ukraine
government," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, responding to
Yushchenko's dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada following the defection of
opposition lawmakers to the coalition.
And in Brussels, Adrian Severin, a member of the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary
Cooperation Committee, said this time around, Europe was putting its support
behind "values," rather than "people."
Yushchenko himself appears to acknowledge he cannot turn to the West for
support on this battle. In an interview with RFE/RL on April 11, the president
said Ukrainians must solve the current crisis "by themselves."
Orange Letdown
Some observers say many in the West have been disappointed by the inability
of the Orange Revolution leaders to capitalize on their powerful public mandate
and effectively lead the country down a new progressive path.
"The lethargy that you see, the hesitancy, or even the frustration on the
part of Brussels and Washington has to do with the degree to which the Orange
Revolution itself collapsed or disintegrated or eroded," says Robert Legvold, a
professor at New York's Columbia University who specializes in post-Soviet
politics.
Just months after the Orange Revolution, Yushchenko and his charismatic
political ally, Yuliya Tymoshenko, had been reduced to constant bickering. By
September 2005, Yushchenko removed Tymoshenko from her prime ministerial post.
That move split the pro-Western Orange forces and opened the door for
Yanukovych's political comeback and the victory of his Party of Regions in March
2006 parliamentary elections.
After months of haggling, Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Socialist Party leader
Oleksandr Moroz appeared to revive the Orange forces and form a ruling coalition
that would have returned Tymoshenko to the prime ministerial post.
But in the end, Moroz defected and instead formed a coalition with Party of
Regions and the Communists. By August 2006, it was Yanukovych, and not
Tymoshenko, who was confirmed as prime minister.
"The Orange Revolution alliance quarreled so much, it didn't have the sort of
inner dynamism to create a government of its own," says Eugeniusz Smolar of the
Warsaw-based Center for International Relations, who said he watched the months
of haggling with a mixture of "sympathy and horror."
The fighting, he says, "destroyed, on the one hand, the cohesion -- and, on
the other hand, some of the support -- of the population toward the government."
Divided Loyalty
Some analysts and politicians suggest the West could have done more to
support pro-European forces in Ukraine by expediting the country's bid to join
Western institutions like the World Trade Organization, the European Union, and
NATO.
Brussels, which acknowledges expansion fatigue, has been firm in its refusal
to bolster Ukraine's hopes of membership. But U.S. President Bush on April 10
signed legislation backing NATO membership for five countries, including
Ukraine.
The fact remains, however, that Ukraine's eastern regions remain largely
loyal to Russia, which adamantly opposes NATO expansion. As a result, Ukraine
itself is deeply divided over whether it wants to join the EU or NATO. Some
polls have indicated that most Ukrainians would reject membership in either if
the issue was put to a referendum.
"There is a quite a large group of public opinion in Ukraine that is not
terribly interested in joining the European Union, understanding that it has an
important economic, social, and cultural interest in staying close to Russia,"
Smolar says.
So did the West fail, or Ukraine? "It's a complex situation," Smolar
continues. "I believe that the Ukrainian public and the Ukrainian elite didn't
do enough. Whether the West could do more... I believe it could do more, but I
am not sure it could do much more."
Wider Implications
Ukraine's inconstancy regarding the West may prove an inconvenience elsewhere
in the former Soviet Union -- particularly in Georgia, whose NATO bid also got
U.S. President Bush's blessing this week.
Georgia kicked off the wave of colored revolutions with its 2003 Rose
Revolution, and President Mikheil Saakashvili has traditionally kept close ties
with Yushchenko. But Legvold at Columbia University says Georgia's own Western
ambitions may be hampered by the ongoing Ukrainian stalemate.
"I don't see any prospect that Georgia can be considered for NATO membership
-- even if it seems in some fashion more qualified -- until the Ukrainian issue
is settled," he says. "You can't jump over Ukraine and address the Georgian
question separately."
Ultimately, U.S. and EU support for Yushchenko and Ukraine's pro-Western
forces may also be muted because the current composition of the Ukrainian
government is the product of elections that were universally judged to be among
the fairest and cleanest in post-Soviet Ukraine.
The Orange Revolution had a clear villain in Yanukovych, whose backers
blatantly falsified election results. This time around, he is the legitimate
head of government and leads the most popular party in the country.
Marek Siwiec, deputy chairman of the European Parliament, said on April 11
that Yushchenko can no longer expect the unequivocal Western support he enjoyed
in 2004.
"All parties have a legal democratic mandate now," Siwiec said. And that
makes a "huge difference."
|