#40 - JRL 2007-86 - JRL Home
Russia: Ukraine Crisis Looms Large
By Chloe Arnold
Copyright (c) 2007. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org
MOSCOW, April 11, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The recent spat in Ukraine between the
president, Viktor Yushchenko, and his rival, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych,
has been followed closely in Russia.
Russian politicians have been eager to speak out about the mounting crisis,
with the Duma issuing a statement on April 6 supporting the Ukrainian Verkhovna
Rada and denouncing Yushchenko's decision to dissolve parliament.
But a member of a Russian State Duma delegation visiting Ukraine, Duma Deputy
Aleksandr Krutov, denied today that Russia was interfering in Ukrainian
politics.
The Duma's statement "is not interference in [Ukraine's] internal affairs. It
is an assessment of the Ukrainian president's decree," Krutov said. "Anybody,
any organization, any country may give their assessment to any legal act in any
country. The State Duma has given its own assessment and it is fully entitled to
do so."
Old Ties
Events in Ukraine have provoked strong feelings among many Russians.
Russian television news programs have devoted hours of airtime to the current
crisis in Ukraine. The escalating row has dominated the news and the front pages
of most of the newspapers in Russia for several days.
Yevgeny Volk, the director of the Moscow branch of the Washington-based
Heritage Foundation, says Russia and Ukraine are bound together.
"The idea of Ukraine becoming a completely independent state is very hard for
Russians to understand," Volk says.
"It always used to be that when something happened in Ukraine, we regarded it
as something that was happening to us. We'd watch it with a great deal of
attention. And of course the question of Ukraine joining the West, becoming a
member of NATO or the European Union -- this is the worst imaginable nightmare
for Russian public opinion."
Winter Of Orange
Three winters ago, when demonstrators wearing orange jackets took to the
streets in Kyiv to contest fraudulent elections, they had the strong support of
Washington and the European Union. The results of the election were overturned
and the Western-leaning Yushchenko came to power in what became known as the
Orange Revolution.
But three years later, there are signs that the West's support for Ukraine
has waned.
Sam Greene, a political researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center, says things
look different now.
"Unfortunately, attention spans, particularly in Washington -- but I think
not only in Washington -- I think are sometimes shorter than we would like them
to be, and I think that interest has moved on. I think we saw similar dynamics
probably in Georgia and probably in Kyrgyzstan," Greene says.
But has the void left by the Western governments that supported the Orange
Revolution in Ukraine, the Rose Revolution in Georgia, and the Tulip Revolution
in Kyrgyzstan left an opportunity for Russia to regain influence in these former
Soviet republics?
Greene says the issue is a little bit more complicated.
"The attention deficit from Washington's side may provide some opportunities
to Moscow. They're more aware of an opportunity when it comes up and they might
be able to take better advantage of it," Greene says.
"But in the long run, the real meat and bones of the relationship is
something that is played out and fought over on a daily basis, not just in these
moments of crisis and specific opportunity, but something that is part of trade
negotiations and diplomacy and investment."
Saving Face
In recent years, Russia has taken steps to exert political influence in the
region. At the beginning of 2006, an energy row between Moscow and Kyiv took on
broader implications when Russia said it would no longer supply gas to Ukraine
at reduced rates. Eventually, Ukraine was forced to accept the new terms. A few
months later, Georgia agreed to pay market rates for Russian gas, too.
Greene says part of Russia's show of force is about saving face.
"The other thing they're sensitive to is image and prestige, partly for
domestic reasons, partly for maintaining this international rhetoric that
obviously makes them feel very good on some level," Greene says.
"They certainly would not want to see Ukraine join NATO or Georgia join NATO.
They certainly would not want to see American antimissile systems and radar
bases directly on the other side of the Russian border."
At the same time, he says, Moscow is coming to realize that the influence it
used to wield over countries like Ukraine and Georgia is on the wane.
The decision makers in the Kremlin are under no illusion they can bring these
countries into line -- now, he says, their primary concern is to do business
with them.
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