#21 - JRL 2007-240 - JRL Home
Russian Economy Has No Serious Medium-term Risks -
Gaidar
MOSCOW. Nov 19 (Interfax) - Former acting Russian prime minister Yegor Gaidar
said on Monday that he "can't see any serious risks for Russia's economy until
2010" but that "everything is much more complicated" as regards "the next 20
years" because of "very serious stability problems in the pension system."
An economic crisis that would involve defaults on major debts "is out of the
question in the short and medium terms," Gaidar, who heads the Russian Institute
of the Transitional Period Economy, told a news conference at Interfax
headquarters in Moscow by citing an analysis by his institute of possible risks
for the next three years.
"We have tried to analyze the worst possible scenarios. Of course, I can't
see any serious risks until 2010," he said.
"Natural gas production does involve some specific problems, but that has
nothing to do with a default. If we discuss developments not within the next
three but the next 20 years, everything is much more complicated there due to
very serious stability problems in the pension system, something that,
strategically speaking, I consider to be one of the most serious problems of
Russia, and of many other countries for that matter," Gaidar said.
Asked whether there existed potential problems for the Russian banking
system, he said: "of course, they are caused by the severe problems of mortgage
lending in the United States. It is a paradoxical but the logic of the
international financial system that, when financial problems arise in the U.S.,
it is to the United States that money flows to."
"But our system has quite large reserves of stability. The Central Bank has
been amazingly quick in preventing panic from gaining momentum in banking and
financial markets by a series of intelligent actions," Gaidar said.
Gaidar was acting prime minister for six months in 1992.
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