#12 - JRL 2007-221 - JRL Home
U.S.: Defense Secretary Says 'Nobody Wants A New Cold
War'
Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC
20036. www.rferl.org
PRAGUE, October 23, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- In a wide-ranging exclusive interview
with RFE/RL, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the United States is
not in a new Cold War with Moscow and that Washington still holds out hope that
democracy will take hold in Russia. In Prague to discuss U.S. missile-defense
plans, Gates also told RFE/RL correspondents Ulrich Speck and Brian Whitmore
that despite rising tensions, the United States can work with Russia on a number
of issues.RFE/RL: Over the past year, Russia has become increasingly aggressive.
There's been a lot of saber rattling. There are a lot of conflicts over issues
like Kosovo and Iran. I'm wondering if it still makes sense to call Russia a
strategic partner of the United States.
Robert Gates: I think our approach should be to consider Russia a strategic
partner until and unless it proves otherwise. There has been a lot of rhetoric,
but in terms of specific actions so far, the Russians have not taken any
irreversible decisions. And they have, in some areas, continued to play a
constructive role. So my view is, we should continue to characterize them as a
strategic partner. We should continue to work with them where we can. And we
should try and persuade them of our point of view in those areas where we
disagree.
RFE/RL: Some observers even talk of a new Cold War. You have a long
experience dealing with Russia, how would you compare the old days dealing with
the Soviet Union and dealing with Russia today?
Gates: We were engaged in a worldwide conflict with the Soviet Union. Often,
it was through surrogates. But after all, at a certain point, we were dealing
with 40,000 Cuban troops in Ethiopia, 40,000 Cuban troops in Angola. We had Cuba
exporting revolution throughout Central and South American with huge Soviet
subsidies. We had the Soviets subsidizing antigovernment movements in Europe. We
were dealing with the Warsaw Pact, this country wasn't free -- the Czech
Republic wasn't free. Neither was Poland, neither were Bulgaria or Romania or
any of the others in Eastern Europe. We had an open-ended arms race going on
with them. They were spending a huge amount more on their military then than
they are now.
So, I mean, it was a very different world, and while some of the rhetoric has
been strong, the reality, it seems to me, is that there are areas where we can
cooperate and where we are cooperating. And we just don't have anything like the
global competition or the global conflict that existed, and where people were
worried that we had our missiles pointed at each other all the time. I just
think it's a completely different world, and as I told the Wehrkunde Conference
in Munich in February, nobody wants a new Cold War. And I don't think the
Russians do, either.
RFE/RL: Going along the same lines of cooperation, the United States very
much needs Russia's cooperation on a number of issues -- again, Kosovo, Iran,
and so on. And, given Russia's authoritarian tilt, this implies on the one hand,
that maybe we must work with the leaders in place there. Could you speak to the
contradiction between classical "realpolitik" and the U.S. president's "freedom
agenda." Is there a contradiction in our policy toward Russia, given the fact
that we need Russia so badly?
Gates: No, I don't think so. And I would characterize it differently,
actually. It's not just the United States that's dealing with Russia. Kosovo is
above all a European matter, it's a NATO matter, it's for all of the Europeans
-- the EU, and so on. So it's not just the United States trying to get the
Russians to take a particular point of view on Kosovo, but it's all of Europe
that is in this. And it's the same way on some of these other challenges that we
face where we're talking with the Russians. Their rhetoric in terms of the
Intermediate[-Range] Nuclear Forces Treaty [INF], in terms of the Conventional
Forces in Europe [CFE] Treaty: these are agreements with all of the states in
Europe, for the most part, and certainly in the CFE, and the Europeans clearly
are concerned about the INF Treaty.
So, I guess my first problem is, this is not just a U.S.-Russian issue; this
is an issue about how Russia is going to interrelate with the rest of Europe.
Does Russia wish to be a part of Europe and wish to be a strategic partner with
the United States? I think they do. And I think that the increasing business
investments, both in Russia and Russia in Europe, can illustrate that that's
true. I don't think there's any contradiction with the president's freedom
agenda.
The reality is, Russia's a very different place today than it was under the
Soviet Union. Is it more authoritarian than we would wish, is there greater
limitation on freedom? Yes. But the reality is that it's very different than in
the Soviet days. And frankly, as I said in my speech on democracy in
Williamsburg a few weeks ago, it takes time to build the institutions of
democracy. Just having an election doesn't mean you have a democracy. So these
institutions have to grow. And you're looking at a country in Russia that in a
thousand years of its history has not had a democracy. So my view is, I think we
need to encourage the development of freedom in Russia, we need to encourage the
development of democratic institutions, but also think we need to understand
that those things take time.
RFE/RL: In encouraging the development of democratic institutions in Russia,
does the U.S. have any leverage, any influence? What can Washington do to help
from the outside to increase these freedoms?
Gates: Well, we didn't think we had any leverage when we went to Helsinki in
1975, and it ended up playing a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union
and in the liberation of Eastern Europe. So I think that we can't underestimate
a certain moral authority. And also, I think, we have to be persistent. After
all, our engagement in the Cold War with the Soviet Union lasted almost half a
century.
RFE/RL: Russian President Vladimir Putin clearly wants to establishment a
sphere of influence in what the Russians call the near-abroad, parts of the
former Soviet Union. Georgia's bid to join NATO, and to cozy up to the United
States, has clearly caused a lot of anxiety and anger in the Kremlin. And I'm
wondering: how dedicated is Washington to Georgia's entry into NATO, and
conversely, is it conceivable that Georgia could become a bargaining chip in the
larger U.S.-Russia relationship?
Gates: I don't think we should link these things, in the relationship, at
all; we'll judge these events on their own merits, these developments. Georgia
in NATO, other nations in NATO, have to be evaluated on their own merits. In my
view, you don't tie them to other issues; I wouldn't link them at all.
RFE/RL: So you would say there's not a risk of Georgia turning into a
bargaining chip?
Gates: I don't think so, no.
RFE/RL: There's concern in Tbilisi....
Gates: We certainly don't intend to let it become one.
RFE/RL: Ukraine also has a growing interest, or a long-standing interest, to
join NATO, even if the domestic support is weaker than in Georgia. How do you
judge Ukraine's chance to get into NATO in the next years?
Gates: Well, I think that's probably not a near-term likelihood. There
clearly is some interest in Ukraine. But there's also, as I understand it, still
substantial domestic opposition to it. So I think we'll just have to see how
things evolve.
RFE/RL: A lot of analysts think that Russia is creating an alternative
security architecture in the world. This came up after there was talk if Serbia
loses Kosovo, that perhaps Serbia would cozy up to Russia, and they are saying,
"Here's a new architecture, and we invite you to join." Is this a cause of
concern in the defense and security community in the United States?
Gates: It's not a concern to me because I don't think it'll be successful,
even if they are trying it. Serbia knows that its interests are with the
Europeans and with the European Union, not with some kind of linkage back to the
East. Russia and Serbia have had a strong political relationship going back well
before World War I. Serbia can't have it both ways: it can have a friendly
relationship with Russia, but its economic future is almost certainly tied to
Europe.
And I think these other countries, it's an open question, in my opinion,
whether Russia's actions are intended to -- whether they actually think they can
create some sort of an alternative architecture, or whether they're trying to
build a bulwark against what they might see as NATO and the Western architecture
enveloping them. So whether it's an offensive or a defensive reaction, I'm not
entirely sure.
RFE/RL: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and things like that don't
cause concern?
Gates: They don't bother me very much. We can't be terrified and looking over
our shoulder every time some other country makes an overture to others about
associating with it. We, the United States and the NATO alliance, this is the
most powerful alliance the world has ever known, and I don't think we need to be
afraid of our own shadow.
RFE/RL: You travel to Germany and the Netherlands in the next days. What is
your message for the Europeans? You mentioned that you want to encourage the
Europeans to do more, to take over more responsibility, especially with regard
to Afghanistan, sending more troops. So, your approach is to bring the Europeans
more into play in regards to Russia and to Afghanistan?
Gates: No, it has nothing to do with Russia, the message I am going to have
in the Netherlands at the NATO defense ministers meeting is a very simple one
and that is that the nations should fulfill the commitments that their leaders
made in Riga, in terms of their support in Afghanistan. It is not about us, it's
about commitments that were made by the leaders of NATO in Riga and I just want
to make sure that everyone understands that those obligations continue. That is
the fundamental message.
RFE/RL: On missile defense, how would you assess your visit here in the Czech
Republic?
Gates: Well, I think that the Czech leadership was intrigued, as was the
Russian government, by the new proposals that Secretary [of State Condoleezza]
Rice and I put on the table when we were in Moscow a couple of weeks ago looking
for ways for greater transparency to provide the Russians reassurance. Going
forward with the agreements, we made it perfectly clear in Russia that we were
going to proceed with the negotiations with the Czech Republic and Poland
regardless and, if those negotiations are successful, then to proceed to deploy,
or build, these radars and interceptors.
However, we also said that if the question is about the threat, then we might
be willing to sit down and talk with the Russians about not activating the
completed systems until the threat was apparent, in other words, until the
Iranians or others in the Middle East had flight-tested missiles of a range that
could hit Europe, as an example. And I think the government here, as in Moscow,
was taken with it, even President Putin referred to the proposals as
constructive.
RFE/RL: The press played up a lot of the so-called chilly reception that you
received there with Secretary Rice. Do you think that was more spin, or did you
feel a chilly reception?
Gates: Well, first of all, that's inaccurate. The big piece of this was the
perception that Secretary Rice and I were kept waiting for about 40 minutes.
Well, the reality is that about five minutes past the time for the meeting, we
were taken to the room where the meeting with President Putin was to take place,
all the press was already in place, we were waiting outside the door, we waited
a few minutes and an aide came to tell us that he had had to take an urgent
telephone call.
We subsequently were able to confirm that that was the fact, that it was a
foreign leader who had called, that it was a fairly important call, and I don't
think that either Secretary Rice or I felt that we were impolitely treated or
kept waiting in some kind of old Soviet way, if you will, and in fact our
meeting with President Putin went about half an hour or 45 minutes beyond the
scheduled time, or the allotted time. So I think that we both felt that they
were very productive meetings.
RFE/RL: Coming back to the larger picture, how do you see Russia in 10 years?
Gates: Well, one of the things that impresses me is it has been about 18
years since my first visit to Russia in 1989 and certainly in terms of the
well-being of the Russian people, materially, they are a lot better off than
they were. And as I wrote in my book, I think one of President [Mikhail]
Gorbachev's last contributions, and historic contributions, in Russia was that
in dismantling the Stalinist economic bureaucracy and in paving the way for
democratic change, he really gave the Russian people their future.
And I think that future is still open for the Russian people. My own view is
that there will be a gradual increase in democratic reforms and freedoms in
Russia. I think part of the problem in Russia was that because the economy
collapsed along with the Soviet Union, in the early stages after the collapse of
the Soviet Union, in the minds of many Russians democracy became confused with
economic disaster, with criminal activities, with activities of the oligarchs
and thievery and so on, and chaos. And so an opportunity was lost. And I think
now, with stability, with economic growth, with growing prosperity, my hope is
that that opportunity that we missed, that the Russians missed early in the 90s
will be recaptured and that would be my hope for Russia over the next 10 years.
RFE/RL: Can we recapture it even given the backsliding on democratic reform
right now and given the fact that former KGB officers are in power?
Gates: We can't recapture it but the Russians can. And frankly, the role of
the KGB today, of the Russian intelligence services, is nothing like what it was
in the Soviet period.
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