#27 - JRL 2007 - 210 - JRL Home
Office of Senator Richard Lugar (R-Indiana)
October 8, 2007
Lugar Offers Agenda for Bush and Putin Meeting
Says much can be accomplished before elections in respective countries
Following is the text of U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar's speech at the Brookings
Institution, Washington, D.C. Lugar is ranking member of the U.S. Senate Foreign
Relations Committee and co-author of the Nunn-Lugar program (www.lugar.senate.gov/nunnlugar).
The relationship between Russia and the United States is more important for
American interests and more complicated to manage than at any time since the end
of the Cold War. The truth is that this is a period of considerable frustration
and disappointment about our relationship in both Washington and Moscow.
The State of the Relationship
For many Americans, there is concern about an over-concentration of power at
the top in Russia and about how that power is being projected in dealing with
the "near abroad." For Russians, there is a growing conviction that Americans
really don't even try to understand how chaotic the last 15 years have been for
Russia.
In reality, we both need to get used to the fact that we need each other;
that we need to be as energetic in expanding common ground as we have been
lately in voicing our frustration.
In fact, in our current fashion of mutual dissatisfaction, we are losing
sight of what we have to gain by working together. And that risk will not likely
recede over the next 14 months when the intersection of our two domestic
political processes may produce more rhetoric than light from either of us.
A Three-Part Framework
How do we put Russian-American relations on a more sustainable, long-term
footing? In the next fourteen months, both the United States and Russia will
hold presidential elections and elect new leaders. While both presidents would
be considered by many political pundits as "lameducks", this last phase of the
Putin and Bush presidencies offers a historic opportunity to renew and
revitalize US-Russian relations. Our presidents have an opportunity to give new
direction to their bureaucracies and to lead our countries toward a stronger
partnership.
To many it will seem counterintuitive to make major policy pushes in the
final months of a presidency, but the strategic choices legitimized by
Presidents Bush and Putin will shape the behavior and policies of successors for
years to come. The U.S. and Russia have a narrow window of opportunity to make
significant progress on a number of important issues. Progress on global
security initiatives will anchor bilateral relations amidst tensions and
disagreements on energy dependence, Kosovo, Georgia, etc.
Secretaries Rice and Gates will travel to Moscow at the end of this week to
meet with their Russian colleaguesthe so-called Two-plus-Two Discussions. This
visit provides the last best opportunity to lay the foundation for bold
initiatives and to seize the high ground by establishing a legacy for Presidents
Bush and Putin. I strongly recommend that the Secretaries and their Russian
counterparts introduce a new package of initiatives. These initiatives relate to
three bold security challenges: (1) nonproliferation and nuclear energy
partnership; (2) progress in arms control; and (3) missile defense cooperation.
NONPROLIFERATION AND NUCLEAR ENERGY
Nunn-Lugar Expansion
In the area of nonproliferation, we have made great progress. Even during
moments of tension between our countries during the last 15 years, the
Nunn-Lugar program, our primary cooperative means to address proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, remained a constant. Both sides recognize the
importance of this endeavor to our mutual security. The Program has succeeded in
convincing Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan to remove all of the nuclear weapons
from their territories. In addition, it became the primary tool through which
the United States works with Russia to safely destroy its massive nuclear,
chemical and biological warfare capacity.
Fissile Material Storage Facility
The Fissile Material Storage Facility at Mayak is one of the largest projects
undertaken by the Nunn-Lugar Program. The massive storage bunker provides safe
and secure storage for up to 100 metric tons of plutonium taken from dismantled
Russian nuclear warheads. Negotiations are underway to conclude a Transparency
Agreement that will establish a process whereby select U.S. personnel,
acceptable to Russia, can periodically inspect the facility and ensure that it
is being used for its intended purpose -- storage of weapons-grade nuclear
material. U.S. personnel would be able to make observations and take certain,
previously agreed measurements to create confidence in the material stored in
the facility.
In February 2007, the US provided a new draft proposal to bridge the gap
between the US and Russia on this important issue. I was pleased to learn from
officials at ROSATOM that Russia believes these negotiations can be concluded by
the end of this year. Such a success would demonstrate ongoing US-Russian
cooperation on nuclear security matters in particular and the Nunn-Lugar program
in general.
Warhead Security
Four years ago Presidents Bush and Putin agreed at their summit in
Bratislava, Slovakia, to upgrade the safety and security at Russian nuclear
warhead and material storage sites by the end of 2008. This was an important
step forward. Together we have made tremendous progress but we still have much
work to do. It is important that Washington and Moscow reaffirm their commitment
to complete the site security work and reach agreement on how the improvements
will be sustained in future years.
Plutonium Disposition
Equally important is the fate of the US-Russian agreement to dispose of 34
metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium, on each side. This proposal has been
held up for a number of years over disagreements in implementation. Now is the
time to finalize a path forward, amend the existing agreement, and begin
implementation. Progress on elimination of this former weapons material will
send an important message to the international community: both countries are
meeting their nuclear disarmament commitment under Article VI of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty.
Nunn-Lugar in North Korea
Together, the United States and Russia should be sending the clear message
that we are willing to go anywhere in pursuit of preventing the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction. We should not assume that we cannot forge
cooperative non-proliferation programs with critical nations. The U.S. and
Russia should be exploring how the Nunn-Lugar experience can be applied in North
Korea. While difficult diplomatic work remains, we must be prepared to move
forward quickly if the respective governments affirm the "disablement" steps
agreed in the Six-Power Talks succeed. To the extent that North Korea permits
the elimination of its weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery,
the Nunn-Lugar program represents a ready-made framework for beginning the
weapons elimination process. Moscow and Washington have proven that former
enemies can work together to achieve shared security benefits. Such a track
record will be critical to a successful diplomatic process on the Korean
peninsula.
In sum, the Nunn-Lugar Program still has important work to do with Russia. I
strongly urge Secretaries Rice and Gates to make certain that the Mayak
Transparency Agreement, warhead security, plutonium disposition, and joint
efforts in North Korea are at the top of the list of subjects to be discussed a
the Two-plus-Two talks in Moscow.
Nuclear Energy
Closely related to nonproliferation cooperation is the need for joint efforts
in the nuclear energy field. Many nuclear experts predict a coming surge in
global demand for nuclear power, which may provide a pretext for more nations to
seek their own nuclear enrichment facilities. The spread of this technology to
additional states poses long-term risks. While the technology may be intended to
produce reactor fuel, it can also produce materials for nuclear weapons.
The US and Russia should formally continue joint efforts with the
International Atomic Energy Agency and consultations with potential partners to
develop an international nuclear fuel bank and a multilateral fuel assurances
system. Such a system would ensure that countries who give up their enrichment
and reprocessing programs have an assurance -- either bilateral, multilateral or
both -- of nuclear reactor fuel at reasonable prices. Under such a regime,
nations would be prohibited from using the guise of peaceful energy production
to develop nuclear weapons.
The US and Russia can provide critical leadership in stopping the abuses to
the core and intent of the NPT. For too long, nations have used the template of
nuclear energy to develop nuclear weapons; the nuclear fuel bank and assurance
system concept could give us an effective means to reverse this trend. To
realize the full potential of these proposals, the peaceful nuclear agreement,
or "123 agreement", negotiated by the US and Russia, must be finalized and
signed by the President and sent to Congress. When the agreement arrives in the
Senate, it will have my support.
ARMS CONTROL
START I Treaty Extension
There is a second area where progress is not only possible in the short-term
but is in our mutual interestand that is arms control. The United States and
Russia are engaged in negotiations on the fate of the START Treaty's
verification regime, which will expire in 2009. The Russian Government has
announced that the agreement should be legally binding. The US, on the other
hand, has argued for a politically-binding agreement that is not reinforced by
law. The US position is similar to that adopted by the Bush Administration in
early rounds of discussions on the Moscow Treaty in 2003. I am hopeful the
Administration will ultimately abandon anxieties about legally binding
commitments as they did four years ago.
Some argue that concluding a legally binding agreement suggests that the
current bilateral relationship is the same as the U.S.-Soviet relationship.
Unfortunately, this point does not provide a logical rationale for abandoning a
legally-binding START Treaty. If both sides agree that it is necessary to have
some type of verification arrangement in place, why not provide them with the
force of law? The predictability and confidence provided by a treaty and an
effective verification regime will reduce the chances of misinterpretation,
miscalculation, and error.
I appreciate the view that the Moscow Treaty was a first step in formalizing
a new strategic relationship between the two countries based on transparency and
confidence building measures. But we must not forget that this new concept was
buttressed by the START Treaty's verification regime. In other words, the
conceptual underpinning of the Moscow Treaty depends upon something which is
about to expire! The selective discarding of START Treaty elements in order to
arrive at less stringent post-START transparency alternatives carries with it
the seeds of greater distrust between the two sides. I am not opposed to new
transparency measures but the current Russian-American relationship is
complicated enough without introducing greater elements of uncertainty into the
nuclear relationship.
The US and Russia need to get on with the business of extending the START
Treaty. Time is running out. The failure to extend START would be a significant
setback to the NPT and the international community's view of the American and
Russian commitment to meeting our obligations under Article VI of the NPT. This
could lead to a further weakening of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, which
has already suffered significant damage in recent years. A shift in policies in
both capitals will be necessary if we are to stop this sharp decline and begin
to rebuild the regime.
Transparency for the Moscow Treaty
After signing the Moscow Treaty, the United States and Russia committed to
work closely together to negotiate additional transparency measures to accompany
the treaty. Unfortunately, no progress has been made to date. This is a missed
opportunity that must be rectified.
The Moscow Treaty created the Bilateral Implementation Commission as the
primary forum for discussions on transparency and verification. A number of
important proposals should be added to the Committee's agenda to enhance
confidence and help verify reductions of strategic systems, including: more
detailed exchanges of information, visits to additional sites, and additional
kinds of inspections. The two sides should also discuss the merits of an
inspection regime that would seek to verify the actual number of warheads on
each delivery system or permit inspections at storage sites to count weapons
held in those locations.
It was also hoped that the Commission would be used to address non-strategic
(tactical) nuclear warheads. Many public reports suggest that Russia may have
more than 12,000 of these systems. The Administration testified in great detail
on how this would be a topic of discussion and negotiation. Again,
unfortunately, there has been no progress.
The START and Moscow Treaties made important contributions to US national
security and I believe they can continue to make us safer. To accomplish this,
the Administration must reject the arguments from some that suggest the
US-Russian relationship has moved beyond the need for legally binding treaties.
While I wish this was the case, nuclear weapons are too dangerous to leave to
political machinations of Washington and Moscow. Extension of START and the
establishment of transparency measures under the Moscow Treaty are the next
steps in providing the international leadership necessary to address the threats
posed by weapons of mass destruction.
MISSILE DEFENSE
Missile defense is a third area where progress in the short term is possible,
even though this issue is seen by many as a major source of the current malaise
in the relationship.
Concerns over the impact of a limited, regional missile defense system in
central Europe directed at rogue states can evolve into productive discussions
over a more global approach to defenses against nuclear attacks. Henry Kissinger
has suggested that President Putin's initiative to link NATO and Russian warning
systems was one of those initiatives easy to disparage on technical grounds but
also one that allows us to "imagine a genuinely global approach to the specter
of nuclear proliferation, which has until now been treated largely through
national policies . If the countries involved link their strategies on the
nonproliferation issue - a new framework for a host of other issues will come
about". I agree with former Secretary Kissinger. The Russian missile defense
proposal provides an important strategic opening for further discussion and
exploration.
President Putin's proposal is not a new concept. In fact, it is surprisingly
similar to the strategic vision that President Ronald Reagan laid out more than
two decades ago. I am pleased that the Administration is seriously studying
Putin's offer on missile defense. While the utilization of former Soviet radar
stations may or may not assist in tracking missiles fired from rogue states,
sharing information gathered by US and NATO systems to Russia, and possibly
linking radar and early warning systems, would be useful in ensuring
transparency and reaffirming our cooperative approach. As General Obering, head
of the US Missile Defense Agency has said: ". the Russian proposals are things
we should certainly pursue . The ideal future . would be that we have US
capabilities, we have NATO capabilities that marry up to (US capabilities), and
we have Russian capabilities that can marry up to (US and NATO capabilities) as
well."
The US and Russia should also consider the establishment of jointly manned
radar facilities and exchanges of early-warning data. They might also consider
joint threat assessments as well as undertake bilateral discussions on options
for missile defense cooperation. Lastly we might consider placing Russian
liaison officers at US missile defense tracking sites in exchange for US
officers in Russian strategic command centers. The transparency gained from such
steps would be useful in offering reassurances that these radars are not meant
for spying on Russia.
During my recent trip to Moscow, US and Russian experts discussed the utility
of installing missile defense in Eastern Europe in phases. They argue that this
could well change the substance as well as the tenor of U.S.-Russian discussions
on missile defense. Further, I applaud General Obering's invitations to his
Russian counterparts to observe missile defense tests here in the US.
Missile defense cooperation could be conducted on a bilateral or multilateral
level through the NATO-Russia Council. Some have expressed skepticism in using
NATO because of the need for unanimity under NATO rules. But such a view is
short-sighted. It is difficult to believe that the US will succeed in developing
an effective missile defense system in Europe without the full support of NATO
members. In many cases, this will require a good-faith effort to engage Russia.
While securing broad support is time-consuming and difficult, it is unlikely
that a policy based upon avoiding those European capitals that oppose our plans
and Russia will succeed at all.
The 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest provides an opportunity to build European
support for the missile defense concept. Further, the NATO-Russia Council could
serve as a forum for discussions and consultations on not only proliferation but
broader nonproliferation cooperation. It might organize threat assessments,
research and development concepts, interoperable systems, and studies on joint
capabilities and operations.
To date, missile defense has been a divisive issue in the US-Russian
relations and it has the potential to cause similar damage to the US-European
relationship. This does not have to continue. Experienced observers understand
that the US will need to build support in Europe for missile defense and that
this will require patient diplomacy and a willingness to consider other options,
opinions, and alternatives time lines. Let me be clear: the United States must
do whatever it must, including missile defense, to protect American lives. But,
in this case, we must have cooperation from our allies. US policies must reflect
this reality!
BUSINESS COOPERATION
While the US-Russian government-to-government relationship needs creative,
strategic thinking and a kick-start, the commercial side of the bilateral
relationship is moving in high-gear and expanding significantly. Last year, U.S.
exports to Russia increased by 20 percent to $4.7 billion in a broad range of
merchandise and service markets. Unfortunately, the merits and benefits of this
expanding relationship remains unknown to many here in Washington.
The business community can be a valuable partner in improving US-Russian
relations. We should carefully consider the recommendations they are making.
First, they argue accurately that the Jackson-Vanik economic legislation has
long outlived its usefulness. This relic of the Cold War is no longer applicable
to the modern Russian government and administration. For more than 8 years,
Russia has satisfied the requirements of Jackson-Vanik by facilitating free
emigration.
Perhaps most importantly, the Jackson-Vanik amendment must be revoked if
Russian membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is to move forward.
Granting permanent normal trade relations will improve confidence in the Russian
investment climate and enhance economic relations between the U.S. and Russia.
The two countries have concluded a bilateral agreement and work is currently
underway on the multilateral draft Protocol of Accession for WTO. I support
Russian accession to the WTO and urge both sides to ensure that these agreements
contain provisions improving cooperation in the areas of piracy, counterfeiting,
border control, protection of pharmaceutical test data, and intellectual
property rights.
I urge Secretaries Rice and Gates to inform their Russian counterparts that
when the WTO multilateral negotiating process is complete and these important
provisions are secured, that President Bush will send it to Congress for
approval with the full strength of the White House behind it. They must work to
convince both the House and the Senate that Russian membership in the WTO will
further integrate Russia into the international, rules-based trading system and
help lock in reforms. Both represent important US national security objectives.
There are no more effective ambassadors for democracy, rule of law, and
American ideals than US corporate leaders. While governments will continue to
play the critical role in relations, we must encourage and endorse the benefits
that will be gained from strong commercial ties and the important contributions
they can make to the US-Russian relationship.
CONCLUSION
To conclude, the existence of neuralgic issues on both sides should not
distract us from pursuing means by which to manage them more adroitly so that
priorities that make sense can be illuminated and mechanisms through which to
accomplish mutually positive ends can be identified.
Presidents Bush and Putin have the opportunity to give new direction to their
bureaucracies and to lead our countries toward a stronger partnership. If they
are to succeed, Secretaries Rice and Gates must arrive in Moscow later this week
with a forward-looking agenda aimed at constructing a package of agreements
designed to make progress on the nonproliferation, nuclear energy, arms control
and missile defense fronts.
To arrive at such a package of agreements, the United States and Russia must
entertain compromise. Refusal to seek common ground dooms the entire exercise to
failure. I remain optimistic we will summon the courage and perseverance
required to move our nations toward many mutual successes.
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