#32 - JRL 2007-201 - JRL Home
Central Asia: Is The Region Entering A New Era Of
Cooperation?
By Bruce Pannier
Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.org
Central Asia seems to have entered a new period of cooperation. Regional
leaders are making official visits to neighboring states at a rate not seen
since the early days after the fall of the Soviet Union. What's driving this new
dynamic?
September 20, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The latest example is this week's visit by
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to Kyrgyzstan.
"We touched on the difficult issue of territorial delimitation and spoke in
favor of a calm resolution of the issue that we inherited from history in a
spirit of brotherhood, neighborly relations, in a constructive atmosphere, with
mutual respect for our interests," Rahmon said.
Some might say, "So what?" The Tajik president took a one-hour flight to
visit the head of a neighboring state. But it's the first time Rahmon has paid
an official state visit to Kyrgyzstan since the March 2005 Tulip Revolution that
brought Kurmanbek Bakiev to power.
And Bakiev was not the only Central Asian head of state Rahmon held talks
with this month. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev visited Tajikistan earlier
this month with some good news for the Tajik people.
"We agreed to establish a special investment fund of $100 million," Nazarbaev
said. "The Kazakh side will contribute its significant part. The fund will work
for the benefit of the Tajik economy. I believe it will be good support."
'Great Potential'
During the same trip, Nazarbaev also visited Turkmenistan to meet with that
country's new president, Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov. The new Turkmen leader
hinted that better days are ahead for Turkmen-Kazakh relations.
[]"One of the priority aspects of our cooperation is the further
intensification of bilateral trade and economic relations," Berdymukhammedov
said. "In this regard, we have great potential in the realization of large-scale
projects in the field of trade, energy, transportation, and telecommunications."
Nazarbaev's visit to Ashgabat this month was actually the Kazakh president's
second trip to Turkmenistan this year, something of a record for visits to
Turkmenistan by a head of state. Nazarbaev was in Turkmenistan in May when
Russian President Vladimir Putin was visiting, and the three heads of state
signed an agreement on pipelines to export natural gas.
Uzbek Comeback
Uzbekistan has not been left out of this new era of cooperation either. Uzbek
President Islam Karimov is due to visit Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in October
-- two countries that have often had very strained relations with Uzbekistan.
Tajikistan for example, gets most its natural gas from Uzbekistan, but Uzbek
authorities have used this as leverage in relations with Tajikistan. When the
Tajik government makes decisions that the Uzbek government disagrees with, the
gas supplies often are reduced or cut off entirely, though officially the reason
is always technical problems. Kyrgyzstan has experienced a similar problem with
Uzbekistan.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been on bad terms almost since they became
independent in 1991. But more recently the Turkmen authorities blame the Uzbek
government for helping would-be assassins who allegedly tried to kill former
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov in November 2002.
The Uzbek Embassy in Ashgabat was searched at that time -- in defiance of
international law -- and the Uzbek ambassador to Turkmenistan was declared
persona non grata shortly after the incident. In fact, Karimov's last official
visit to Turkmenistan was nearly nine years ago -- in October 1998. The reason
for that visit was the advance of Afghanistan's Taliban movement to the borders
of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Of course, the leaders of the five Central Asian states do see each other
when they attend various meetings, like CIS gatherings or, in the case of
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, at summits of the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization.
But while such summits may include security as a leading topic on the agenda,
they do not do much to promote regional cooperation in Central Asia. And prior
to this busy month of visits, the leaders of the five countries had been making
fewer and fewer official visits to other Central Asian states.
Factors Behind Developments
Several factors could be driving this new era of cooperation in Central Asia.
The first is the change in leadership in Turkmenistan. Berdymukhammedov's
predecessor -- Saparmurat Niyazov -- made Turkmenistan a very reclusive state.
Niyazov did not commit his country to regional groups like the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization or the now-defunct Central Asian Economic Union.
Niyazov also did not ever see any reason to talk about regional security.
Another factor drawing the Central Asian states closer together is
Kazakhstan's emergence as the regional economic powerhouse. Revenues from oil
and natural gas exports are finally starting to drive Kazakhstan's economy
upward, and with this extra money the Kazakh government and Kazakh
businesspeople are investing huge sums in neighboring Central Asian countries.
When the Taliban movement's forces seized control of Kabul in September 1996,
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan sent representatives
to Almaty to discuss this threat to security. Turkmenistan, buoyed by its status
as a UN-recognized neutral state, chose not to attend that conference or any
regional security conference after that.
But Berdymukhammedov has placed a priority on developing better relations
with his Central Asian neighbors, a fact that is not only noticed but was
rewarded with an invitation as an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization summit in Bishkek in August.
Berdymukhammedov's government is promising even more cooperation with its
Central Asian neighbors, including energy exports to energy-starved Kyrgyzstan
and Tajikistan.
There is now Kazakh investment in hydropower projects, oil and gas pipelines,
banks, and other ventures in all of Central Asia. Nazarbaev's trips to
Turkmenistan and Tajikistan this month were as much about trade and economic
cooperation as they were about political cooperation.
One more factor compelling the five Central Asian countries toward deeper
cooperation is the international community's increasing familiarity with the
region.
Sensing Growing Importance?
Central Asia was barely on the map for most people until the last few years.
The willingness of the five countries to cooperate with U.S.-led efforts in
Afghanistan helped bring new attention to the region, and the vast energy
resources the region possesses kept that attention on Central Asia after those
countries' role in the Afghan operation began to diminish.
But now, any number of foreign suitors are arriving in Central Asia, seeking
energy supplies, metals, or merely some political influence in a strategically
important area of the world that is the border between the worrisome states of
Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran to the south, China to the east, and Russia and
Europe to the west. The five leaders of Central Asia may now be sensing the
region's growing importance and a need to coordinate their approaches to various
would-be regional players.
One small example is oil and natural gas exports. If Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan can agree on a price for gas that suits them all,
they could avoid a potentially nasty competition that might see all reducing
prices to outsell their neighbors, with a corresponding loss in profits.
If all this seems logical, then it must be mentioned that historically the
region has a horrible record of cooperation. Until the area fell under the
domination of the Soviet Union, it was never divided along ethnic lines. There
were khanates and emirates in Central Asia and where a person lived -- not who
they were ethnically -- was all that was important. A person was either a
citizen of the Khivan or Kokand Khanate or the Bukharan Emirate and whether they
were Uzbek, Kyrgyz, Tajik, Kazakh or Turkmen made little difference. But these
khanates and emirates rarely cooperated, even in the face of a common threat.
Tsarist Russia had little trouble in subduing them one at a time in the
latter part of the 19th century. The Soviet plan to divide the region into
republics based on titular nationalities was intended to further divide the
people of Central Asia, and even today that policy seems to have succeeded. For
more than a decade the five Central Asian states tended to seek help from
outsiders instead of seeking it from their neighbors.
After many centuries, that may all be changing.
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