#24 - JRL 2007-201 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
September 21, 2007
Russia loses Gabala opening
MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - There is a
chance of joint American-Russian use of the Gabala radar, Jonathan Henick,
public relations officer at the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan, told Interfax. He
said Washington was currently analyzing information about the radar.
Russian, U.S. and Azerbaijani experts visited the Gabala radar on September
19 in response to a proposal from Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, to drop
U.S. plans for new missile-defense construction in Central Europe, and to use
instead the Russian radar against a possible Iranian threat.
However, it appears that Washington is considering the issue from an angle
entirely unsuitable to Russia. The visit to Gabala provided the United States
with arguments allowing it to question the possible use of the radar as an
alternative to the planned U.S. anti-ballistic missile (ABM) facility in the
Czech Republic.
The same argument will be most likely used with regard to the cutting-edge
radar being built in Armavir in southern Russia.
Russian radars are not designed to fulfill the tasks set to the
missile-tracking radar which is to be deployed in the Czech Republic.
The best solution in this situation would be to link the Russian radar system
in Azerbaijan into the proposed U.S. one in Central Europe, running them in
tandem, Lieutenant General Henry Obering, director of the Missile Defense
Agency, said in a speech Tuesday at the European Institute, a public-policy
organization focused on trans-Atlantic affairs.
"I believe we are going to reach agreement with Poland and the Czech
Republic," he said, pressing on the Kremlin's sore spot.
"We have seen a dramatic increase in interest in missile defense around the
globe," driven by the development of increasingly longer-range missiles by North
Korea and Iran, he told an audience of European attaches.
This does not suit Moscow at all. The Gabala radar cannot be "a supplement"
to the U.S. ballistic defense system in Europe, said Russia's Deputy Foreign
Minister Sergei Kislyak.
Chief of Staff Yury Baluyevsky, who had initially proposed using the Gabala
radar jointly with the United States, said he had expected this reaction from
Washington.
He is right, again. Obering has not said anything new, and his idea of using
the radar as part of the American system in Europe was to be expected.
Washington had warned that the Gabala radar (as well as the Armavir facility
offered for joint use later) is an early warning system, and not the X-band
radar used to guide the Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI) missiles, which the
United States plans to deploy in the Czech Republic.
In other words, Washington has decided to reduce the issue to technical
aspects, claiming that the Gabala radar, although a very good one, cannot be
used to target American anti-missiles at Iranian ballistic missiles.
Moscow has run out of arguments in favor of Gabala. The U.S. is not convinced
by the claim that the Gabala radar can be used to create a "new-generation [ABM]
system in Russia."
Likewise, the Kremlin can no longer say that Washington's acceptance or
rejection of the Russian offer will show if the United States really needs the
European ABM to protect itself from Iranian missiles, or to look deep into
Russian territory.
If Washington refuses to deploy its X-band radar in the Czech Republic and
instead agrees to use the Gabala radar, which is not designed to fight Iranian
missiles, its ABM system in Europe would be seen as targeted exclusively against
Russia.
Worse still, Moscow and Baku have tried to convince Tehran that the use of
the Gabala radar by the United States would not harm Iran. If this is so, then
why should Washington agree to incorporate the Gabala radar in its anti-Iranian
ABM system in Europe?
In short, Russia has lost the opening in the ABM chess game. The Gabala trick
has not succeeded, and Washington has quickly moved to the middlegame, when
players need to assess their positions, formulate plans, and at the same time
consider tactical possibilities. Meanwhile, it continues to harp on the need to
continue consultations and ABM cooperation with Russia.
This will be a long middlegame. At the earliest, the United States could
place interceptors in Poland and the radar in the Czech Republic in 2011 or
2012, Obering said, adding: "So there's a sense of urgency to get on with this."
However, congressional restrictions may delay the start of work on the
missile-defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic for six months.
It appears that Washington has firm plans regarding the European ABM, and it
is unlikely to abandon them only because the Russian General Staff claims that
they are "unpromising, to say the least." In fact, this is exactly what
Baluyevsky has said.
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