#38 - JRL 2007-198 - JRL Home
Azerbaijan: U.S., Russian Experts Arrive For
Missile-Defense Talks
By Chloe Arnold
Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.orgMOSCOW, September
17, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- Military experts from Azerbaijan, Russia, and the United
States are to meet in Azerbaijan on September 18 to discuss the possibility of
Washington using the country's Qabala (Gabala) radar station as part of its
planned missile-defense shield.
The United States wants to build parts of a missile-defense shield in Poland
and the Czech Republic to monitor missile movement in rogue states, such as Iran
and North Korea.
Russia, which reacted angrily to the plans, has proposed the Qabala facility
in Azerbaijan as an alternative to the sites in Central Europe. Russia leases
the site from Azerbaijan, which shares a border with Iran to the south.
When the United States first announced its defense-shield plans, the Kremlin
threatened to aim its missiles at Europe in retaliation. Aleksandr Yakushin, the
head of the Russian delegation to the Qabala talks, said on September 15 that
Moscow will insist Washington abandon its projects in Poland and the Czech
Republic.
He added, however, that the talks on Qabala indicated that Russia was willing
to compromise. "The very fact that we are showing the Qabala radar station,
which is a functioning radar station and which fulfills a very important
strategic task and is a secret Defense Ministry site, proves that at the
upcoming talks we are ready to openly discuss and show the purpose and
perspectives for the development of this station, and that we are fully open to
dialogue," Yakushin added.
Agreement 'A Long Way Off'
Washington has given no indication it would accept a Qabala partnership as an
alternative to its bases in Central Europe.
But the September 18 meeting in Azerbaijan shows that Russia is willing to
keep the conversation moving, says Viktor Kremenyuk, the deputy director of the
Institute of U.S. and Canadian Studies in Moscow.
"I think that now Russia has changed its position from the total rejection of
this idea to something like a bargaining between Russia and the U.S. on the
conditions under which Russia can become part of this global system," Kremenyuk
says.
The U.S. experts will decide whether conditions at Qabala are suitable for
the defense shield and whether the technology is compatible with the U.S.
system. Russia has promised to update the facility to bring it in line with U.S.
requirements. But Kremenyuk warns that an agreement between Russia and the
United States over the proposed defense system is likely to be a long way off.
"So far, the positions are different. The Russians suggest that this Azeri
station should be introduced instead of the American installations in Poland and
the Czech Republic, while the Americans think that it may be in addition to what
they are doing there," Kremenyuk says. "What may be the final result of this
bargaining is still hard to say, but anyway it's good that the process of
bargaining is under way."
The Politics Of Military Confrontation
Tomorrow's meeting comes amid deteriorating relations between Russia and the
United States on military issues. In response to U.S. defense plans in Central
Europe, the Kremlin recently announced it was pulling out of the Conventional
Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, a key Cold War arms pact that limits the
deployment of heavy weapons.
Aleksandr Golts, a defense expert and deputy editor of the "Yezhednevny
zhurnal" Internet newspaper, says the meeting is unlikely to result in any sort
of deal. "The meeting won't produce any results," Golts said. "It's a meeting of
experts who are not bringing with them any documents to be signed."
He says Russian President Vladimir Putin may have a different reason for
wanting to come out strong on military issues. "I think actually that the U.S.
missile-defense program and the Russian reaction to it [have] more to do with
politics than with military strategy," Golts says. "Vladimir Putin wants to
bring relations with the West to the fore. He'd rather talk about
military-political questions than, say, discuss the handover of power."
Last week, the Russian president dismissed his government and appointed a
little-known technocrat, Viktor Zubkov, as his new prime minister. The move
triggered speculation that Zubkov may be the president's chosen candidate to run
in the presidential election next year.
The Qabala radar station was built in 1984 in the foothills of the Caucasus
Mountains in northern Azerbaijan and was the one of the Soviet Union's most
powerful missile-detection early-warning systems.
The Russian government has signed a lease until 2012 for the facility, which
can monitor missile movement as far away as Africa and the Indian Ocean.
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