#25 - JRL 2007-149 - JRL Home
Moscow News
www.MN.Ru
July 5, 2007
The Maine Course
What a difference a decade makes
By Robert Bridge
Although western commentators never miss a chance to chastise Russia, the
pundits have stopped spilling ink over the once ubiquitous question, "Who lost
Russia," which thinly veiled America's aura of self importance. The question was
almost forgivable in the cash-and-carry Yeltsin era, when Russia was a basket
case of IMF-funded instability and the country was being auctioned off to the
highest bidders. Today, Russia's outstanding debts are paid in full, oil and gas
is more precious than diamonds, while Moscow has hoarded away the third highest
amount of foreign currency reserves in the world. Perhaps the better question
would have been: Was Russia ever America's to lose in the first place?
Yes, Russia is back on the map. But does its resurgence demand that it fall
under the West's radar gun?
The partners in the war on terrorism have run up against a wall: Washington
wants to construct an anti-missile defense system in Poland and the Czech
Republic, just a few hundred kilometers from the Russian border. On paper, the
new (and still unproven) technology will swat down incoming missiles from rogue
states. The problem with this strategy is obvious, however, and not least of all
to the Russian generals: no rogue state has, or will have anytime soon, such
mean capabilities.
Moscow argues that the billions being spent on this space odyssey should
instead be used to prevent the cross-border smuggling of dirty bombs, dirty
terrorists, and dirty money. After all, states still abide by the 'mutually
assured destruction' law, whereas the new-age terrorists gladly commit suicide
to promote their cause.
To emphasize Moscow's jitters with the plan, Russia conducted something of a
fireworks display shortly before Putin departed for the "lobster summit," hosted
by U.S. President George W. Bush at his family's seaside retreat in
Kennebunkport, Maine.
Moscow test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile that the Russian
Army says will make redundant any missile defense system. The multiple-warhead
missile hit its target on the Kamchatka Peninsula more than 3,700 miles away,
the Strategic Missile Forces said. So much for Russia's brain drain.
"It can overcome any potential full-scale missile defense system developed by
foreign countries," Colonel-General Viktor Yesin told the Russian Today
television channel.
What is unfortunate about this missile launch is that Moscow made numerous
diplomatic overtures to Brussels and Washington about the consequences of
stockpiling Russia's borders with weapons.
Weeks before the missile launch, Putin attempted to convince European leaders
that it is not in their interest to host a weapons system that threatens to
destabilize the continent.
"We consider it harmful and dangerous to turn Europe into a powder keg and to
stuff it with new weapons," Putin said at a press conference with Prime Minister
José Socrates of Portugal, who assumed the European Union's rotating presidency
on July 1. "It creates new and unnecessary risks for the whole system of
international and European relations."
Earlier, during his annual state of the nation address at the end of April,
Putin warned that Russia would pull out of the Conventional Forces in Europe
treaty (for full report on the CFE, see page 7) unless NATO members sign onto
the document.
"It would be appropriate to announce a moratorium on Russian adherence to
this treaty until it has been ratified by all NATO countries... It is high time
for our partners to deliver their contribution to arms reduction, not just in
word but in deed."
Yet, the United States, shrewdly playing Western Europe against Eastern
Europe in a game of Rumsfeldian-style insult and conquer, said it would not back
down from its missile-shield fantasy.
It was under this cloud of uncertainty that Bush and Putin met for talks in
Kennebunkport.
"Lobster Summit"
Putin had the honor of being the first foreign leader to receive an
invitation to the Bush family's Kennebunkport residence in the northeastern
state of Maine. If this gesture was not enough to convince the Russian president
of America's sincerity, family patriarch George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of
the U.S., skippered a joyride for his son and Putin in his speedboat, Fidelity,
on Sunday. Early the next day, after a breakfast of pancakes and eggs, the
esteemed Russian guest even managed to catch a big bass in the course of a
90-minute outing, which he diplomatically played down as "a team effort."
Bush Sr. announced to his crewmates: "Fishing is good for the soul. Fishing
is good for one person to get to know another."
Following Monday's boat outing, the leaders got down to business on the
missile defense issue and Putin seemed to be angling with the right bait again.
In addition to offering Washington access to the radar station in Azerbaijan
- which is capable of monitoring large swaths of Central Asia, including Iran,
where the U.S. most fears a 'rogue' attack to originate from - Putin offered
joint use of radar that is under construction in southern Russia.
Naturally, no immediate decision was forthcoming, although Bush did call
Putin's proposal "very innovative."
But Putin was not fishing in friendly waters. Diplomatic aftershocks
following the summit suggest that the U.S. is adamant about its missile defense
dream being bolted down to former Soviet-bloc real estate.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who rather absentmindedly and not a
little unwisely lumped Russia together with Iran and North Korea in a Who's Who
in the World of Bad Guys speech in January (this comment was probably the main
impetus behind Putin's Munich speech in February, where he slammed the "one
sovereign" for having "nothing in common with democracy"), said the Azerbaijan
radar would complement, not substitute, the Polish and Czech components.
The diplomatic tit-for-tat escalated to a new level on Wednesday as First
Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said that if the U.S. went ahead with its
missile plan, Russia would have no choice but to "base new rocket forces in the
European part of Russia, in Kaliningrad, in order to parry the new threats."
This comment will certainly screw up the geopolitical calculus in Europe,
since Kaliningrad, Russia's exclave, sits further to the west than the Baltic
States, and shares a border with Poland and Lithuania.
The Russian president chased away the thunderstorms with a sunny Fourth of
July message, which held out hope for constructive relations with the U.S.
despite some soggy fireworks in the box.
"We look with certainty to the future of mutually satisfactory cooperation. I
am sure that... the policy of comprehensive development of bilateral ties in all
areas will continue," Putin said in the message, released by the Kremlin during
Putin's trip to Guatemala, where he pitched for Sochi's Winter Olympic bid.
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