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#25 - JRL 2007-149 - JRL Home
Moscow News
www.MN.Ru
July 5, 2007
The Maine Course
What a difference a decade makes

By Robert Bridge

Although western commentators never miss a chance to chastise Russia, the pundits have stopped spilling ink over the once ubiquitous question, "Who lost Russia," which thinly veiled America's aura of self importance. The question was almost forgivable in the cash-and-carry Yeltsin era, when Russia was a basket case of IMF-funded instability and the country was being auctioned off to the highest bidders. Today, Russia's outstanding debts are paid in full, oil and gas is more precious than diamonds, while Moscow has hoarded away the third highest amount of foreign currency reserves in the world. Perhaps the better question would have been: Was Russia ever America's to lose in the first place?

Yes, Russia is back on the map. But does its resurgence demand that it fall under the West's radar gun?

The partners in the war on terrorism have run up against a wall: Washington wants to construct an anti-missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, just a few hundred kilometers from the Russian border. On paper, the new (and still unproven) technology will swat down incoming missiles from rogue states. The problem with this strategy is obvious, however, and not least of all to the Russian generals: no rogue state has, or will have anytime soon, such mean capabilities.

Moscow argues that the billions being spent on this space odyssey should instead be used to prevent the cross-border smuggling of dirty bombs, dirty terrorists, and dirty money. After all, states still abide by the 'mutually assured destruction' law, whereas the new-age terrorists gladly commit suicide to promote their cause.

To emphasize Moscow's jitters with the plan, Russia conducted something of a fireworks display shortly before Putin departed for the "lobster summit," hosted by U.S. President George W. Bush at his family's seaside retreat in Kennebunkport, Maine.

Moscow test-fired a new intercontinental ballistic missile that the Russian Army says will make redundant any missile defense system. The multiple-warhead missile hit its target on the Kamchatka Peninsula more than 3,700 miles away, the Strategic Missile Forces said. So much for Russia's brain drain.

"It can overcome any potential full-scale missile defense system developed by foreign countries," Colonel-General Viktor Yesin told the Russian Today television channel.

What is unfortunate about this missile launch is that Moscow made numerous diplomatic overtures to Brussels and Washington about the consequences of stockpiling Russia's borders with weapons.

Weeks before the missile launch, Putin attempted to convince European leaders that it is not in their interest to host a weapons system that threatens to destabilize the continent.

"We consider it harmful and dangerous to turn Europe into a powder keg and to stuff it with new weapons," Putin said at a press conference with Prime Minister José Socrates of Portugal, who assumed the European Union's rotating presidency on July 1. "It creates new and unnecessary risks for the whole system of international and European relations."

Earlier, during his annual state of the nation address at the end of April, Putin warned that Russia would pull out of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty (for full report on the CFE, see page 7) unless NATO members sign onto the document.

"It would be appropriate to announce a moratorium on Russian adherence to this treaty until it has been ratified by all NATO countries... It is high time for our partners to deliver their contribution to arms reduction, not just in word but in deed."

Yet, the United States, shrewdly playing Western Europe against Eastern Europe in a game of Rumsfeldian-style insult and conquer, said it would not back down from its missile-shield fantasy.

It was under this cloud of uncertainty that Bush and Putin met for talks in Kennebunkport.

"Lobster Summit"

Putin had the honor of being the first foreign leader to receive an invitation to the Bush family's Kennebunkport residence in the northeastern state of Maine. If this gesture was not enough to convince the Russian president of America's sincerity, family patriarch George H.W. Bush, the 41st president of the U.S., skippered a joyride for his son and Putin in his speedboat, Fidelity, on Sunday. Early the next day, after a breakfast of pancakes and eggs, the esteemed Russian guest even managed to catch a big bass in the course of a 90-minute outing, which he diplomatically played down as "a team effort."

Bush Sr. announced to his crewmates: "Fishing is good for the soul. Fishing is good for one person to get to know another."

Following Monday's boat outing, the leaders got down to business on the missile defense issue and Putin seemed to be angling with the right bait again.

In addition to offering Washington access to the radar station in Azerbaijan - which is capable of monitoring large swaths of Central Asia, including Iran, where the U.S. most fears a 'rogue' attack to originate from - Putin offered joint use of radar that is under construction in southern Russia.

Naturally, no immediate decision was forthcoming, although Bush did call Putin's proposal "very innovative."

But Putin was not fishing in friendly waters. Diplomatic aftershocks following the summit suggest that the U.S. is adamant about its missile defense dream being bolted down to former Soviet-bloc real estate.

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who rather absentmindedly and not a little unwisely lumped Russia together with Iran and North Korea in a Who's Who in the World of Bad Guys speech in January (this comment was probably the main impetus behind Putin's Munich speech in February, where he slammed the "one sovereign" for having "nothing in common with democracy"), said the Azerbaijan radar would complement, not substitute, the Polish and Czech components.

The diplomatic tit-for-tat escalated to a new level on Wednesday as First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said that if the U.S. went ahead with its missile plan, Russia would have no choice but to "base new rocket forces in the European part of Russia, in Kaliningrad, in order to parry the new threats."

This comment will certainly screw up the geopolitical calculus in Europe, since Kaliningrad, Russia's exclave, sits further to the west than the Baltic States, and shares a border with Poland and Lithuania.

The Russian president chased away the thunderstorms with a sunny Fourth of July message, which held out hope for constructive relations with the U.S. despite some soggy fireworks in the box.

"We look with certainty to the future of mutually satisfactory cooperation. I am sure that... the policy of comprehensive development of bilateral ties in all areas will continue," Putin said in the message, released by the Kremlin during Putin's trip to Guatemala, where he pitched for Sochi's Winter Olympic bid.

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