#22 - JRL 2007-129 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
June 6, 2007
G8 summit - national differences likely to dominate
despite common interests
MOSCOW. (Ian Pryde for RIA Novosti) - Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel has
tried hard to concentrate on "Growth and Responsibility" as the theme for this
week's G8 summit in Heiligendamm on the Baltic coast.
Everyone wants growth, but as the summit begins, responsibility has been
pushed aside and rhetoric and mutual recriminations are the order of the day.
Moreover, sovereignty understood as carte blanche to pursue narrow national
interests cannot work in today's world, for as Lenin said, "everything is
connected to everything else."
But while the United States and China, the two biggest polluters on the
planet, feel at liberty to damage their own countries, they can hardly be
expected to cooperate on implementing effective solutions on the environment.
And yet, despite the common threats of global warming, energy security and
terrorism, there are countless common opportunities.
Russian rhetoric and nuclear weapons - a zero-sum game
The agreement in May between Russia and the West to tone down the rhetoric
proved short-lived.
In a conference with several foreign journalists earlier this week, President
Putin warned that if America stationed ABM systems in Poland and the Czech
Republic, Russia would retarget its nuclear weapons at Europe.
This is not difficult technically, so in that sense his comment changes
nothing - but has Putin forgotten that Britain and France are also nuclear
powers which could just as easily (re)target Russia?
This kind of approach, however, is obviously a zero-sum game, which the West
is unlikely to play, and Putin's threat unleashed a wave of international
condemnation from Europe, Russia's main trading partner, and the United States.
Although both Putin and the Russian elite claim their country is democratic
and a member of the civilized (read Western) world, this kind of rhetoric merely
serves to increase international distrust toward Russia and isolate it even
more, giving it less leverage than it would like in international affairs.
While the Kremlin moved quickly in an attempt to defuse the situation by
pointing out that the Russian president had replied to a hypothetical question,
Putin had made clear his anger at the American plan to the Portuguese prime
minister and the Greek president during their visits to Moscow last week.
In contrast to George W. Bush, however, Putin is bright, articulate and
extremely well-briefed, but he is also forthright, irascible and "takes no
prisoners."
In other words, this was not the kind of lapse that Bush makes so often.
Contrary to the view of the more pro-American Western media, however, some of
Putin's claims are valid.
He is right to point out that NATO has expanded into Eastern Europe -
something the Russians did not expect when they agreed to withdraw from the
region and which they feel goes against the spirit of the negotiations at the
time.
The Americans, however, claim they made no such commitments.
Yes, some of the countries in Eastern Europe are distrustful of Russia, but
this is more for historical reasons than because of any threat Russia now poses,
or is likely to pose.
As a result, NATO remains an organization in search of a mission since it was
never designed for "out-of-area" action in places such as Afghanistan and faces
no real threat from any comparable conventional forces, which are in any event
woefully inadequate to cope with the "asymmetric threat" of terrorism by
non-state actors.
Russia's foreign policy - time for a new approach
Unfortunately, Russia's new-found and much vaunted role as energy superpower
has led it to overreach itself somewhat.
Moscow has still to understand the concept of interdependence - "everything
is connected to everything else."
While some observers believe that Russia is pursuing a "divide and rule"
policy by trying to drive a wedge between European countries and/or between
Europe and the United States, such tactics will fail if pushed to the limit.
The European Union and NATO rushed to support Estonia recently over the
dispute with Russia and helped defend it against the recent attacks on its
computer systems which apparently emanated from Russia.
And now Russia is complaining that Britain has internationalized the
Litvinenko/Lugovoi affair by invoking EU support.
If Russia wishes to avoid this kind of concerted response, which was, after
all, completely predictable, it needs to avoid rhetoric and actions that confirm
the stereotype.
American unilateralism - a problem for itself, Europe, Russia and the world
One American official condemned Putin for his statement that Moscow would
retarget nuclear weapons and rightly pointed out that the Russia-NATO Council
provides a forum to discuss the issue.
However, it is no secret that on a wide range of issues such as energy,
security, space and international justice, the United States prefers a
unilateral approach.
This is perfectly acceptable - after all, the United States is a sovereign
nation and can do as its likes - as can Russia, Estonia, China and all the other
190-odd countries in the world.
But in that case, the United States should not be surprised and disappointed
to find that other countries disagree with its policies and will resist them.
A recent BBC poll showed that in many countries a majority believes the
United Sates exerts a negative influence on global politics, which should be
equally worrying to the American leadership.
No surprise, then, that America, like Russia, cannot get the support it wants
when it finds it cannot go it alone - welcome to the real world.
America's failed energy policies
Every American president since the first oil crisis in 1973 has tried to
implement his own national energy policy.
Every policy, however, has been ineffective - countless Americans remain
addicted to oil and continue to emulate the brief and largely mythical wild-west
lifestyle by buying gas guzzling SUVs and pickups.
America has failed utterly to learn from the far more sensible Japanese.
When America passed the Clean Air Act in 1970, the Big Three Detroit
carmakers called in their lawyers - the Japanese manufacturers brought in their
engineers.
Now, nearly 40 years on, Toyota, one of the best companies in the world, is
sweeping past Detroit's lumbering giants, exposing their total lack of strategic
vision and showing how industry and companies can benefit from environmentally
sound products as increasing numbers of Americans become convinced of the need
for action on global warming.
But despite this grass roots pressure and action at state level to reduce
emissions, the administration continues to stall.
On the eve of the G8 summit, the United States announced its own
counter-proposal on climate change.
Once again it refused to join the Kyoto process within the framework of the
United Nations and accept limits on emissions.
The result? Like Russia, America finds itself rather isolated.
China and India - partners in crime
Against this background, it is hardly surprising to see countries such as
China and India arguing that since the rich countries are responsible for most
carbon emissions, they must bear the brunt of the efforts to reduce them.
China's per capita production of carbon, for example, is only one fifth of
America's, but it produces 70% of its electricity from coal, so it is likely to
become the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world this year, overtaking
the United States.
Even so, China's own climate plan announced on the eve of the G8 summit
focuses on energy conservation measures rather than on reducing emissions.
China, like America, argues that caps on emissions would reduce growth at
home (and in other emerging economies).
But the growing scientific consensus that the situation is becoming critical
means action needs to be taken if sharply reduced economic growth and all sorts
of unpleasant and unpredictable consequences are to be avoided.
The time for applying the precautionary principle "just in case" has
therefore passed and inaction is a recipe for disaster - and that applies to the
United States, China and India in equal measure.
China and India can insist as much as they want that the United States and
Europe begin to reduce carbon emissions before they take action, but poor
countries such as themselves will suffer far more from global warming than the
rich and technologically advanced countries of the northern hemisphere.
Prospects and solutions
Russian rhetoric, America unilateralism and emerging countries bent on
development - all these make it more difficult to achieve the concerted
international action needed for Growth and Responsibility.
Too many countries are still insisting on their own "sovereignty" and
"national interest," and as a result do not always see the medium and long-term
consequences of their actions.
Estonia, for, example, would have done better not to antagonize Russia, and
Moscow would have done better not to indulge in silly rhetoric against Estonia
as if such a small country represented a threat to one of the biggest and most
populous countries on the planet.
Like America, Russia could learn much from Japan, which has taken countless
Western ideas and improved upon them to build the second-largest economy in the
world.
For much of its history, however, Russia has borrowed Western ideas and
adapted them to Russian conditions, usually diluting and distorting them in the
process.
Russia then proceeds to tell everyone that it is implementing these ideas
just as well or even better than the West itself - the results are well-known.
Russia's current position is curiously inconsistent and at odds with its
stated goals - the desire to develop and be accepted as an equal member of the
Western club and "civilized" world.
Constant talk of democracy and a market economy at home and of international
friendship and partnership is intermingled with rhetoric and actions that are
widely perceived both in Russia and abroad as proving the exact opposite.
At the same time, the West is often too quick to dismiss legitimate Russian
grievances.
The American people at both state and grass-roots levels are increasingly
concerned about global warming, while more and more companies in America (and
Europe) see it as a business opportunity.
So with the Bush administration in denial and abdicating its responsibility
and emerging countries keen to develop, it will be left to Europe and grass
roots pressure in the United States to help bring about change and push for a
concerted international effort, including the sale of advanced environmentally
friendly technology to emerging countries.
This would in turn help to put real pressure on China and India.
Despite the views of the conspiracy theorists and the Cold Warriors in the
United States and Russia, there are in fact no real conflicts of interests
between the two sides despite all the unpleasant rhetoric of recent months.
In fact, the opportunities and potential benefits from joint action on the
major issues facing the world are huge and include much closer economic ties.
Energy security, for example, has a rarely mentioned flipside - consumers
such as Europe, the United States, China and India need more certainty, but so
do suppliers such as Russia.
In order to break the current impasse - especially the differences between
Russia and the West - far greater statesmanship, dialogue and mutual
understanding are required.
Unfortunately, these seem sadly lacking at the moment as countries such as
the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia, backed up by some of the
sillier and often less informed serious media on both sides, insist on the
default position that they - and they alone - are right.
Ian Pryde is CEO of Eurasia Strategy & Communications, Moscow.
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