#4 - JRL 2007-115 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
May 21, 2007
Russia's economy - never had it so good?
MOSCOW. (Ian Pryde for RIA Novosti) - Much attention this week was focused on
the visits to Moscow by the German and US foreign ministers and the Russia-EU
summit in Samara.
The arrival of an IMF delegation and changes in Russia's budget process went
largely unnoticed, and yet they shed an interesting light on the profound
changes of recent years.
Russia's economy seems to be awash with money, and at first sight the country
has never had it so good.
This week, the Central Bank of Russia announced that between 4 and 11 May
2007, Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves had increased by $14.2 billion
to $386.3 billion, making them the third largest in the world, although they
remain far lower than China's figure of over $1 trillion.
On preliminary figures, Russia's budget surplus in the first quarter of 2007
was 471.9 billion rubles ($18.2 billion).
It is of course no secret that Russia's economy has recovered on the back of
high oil and gas prices, although other commodities such as coal,
metals and timber are important and arms sales and machinery also contribute
to Russia's exports.
The real questions are how to manage all this money and at the same time
ensure Russia's economic diversification and continued growth.
Russia is coping with the first task rather better than the second.
It has paid back its sovereign debt to the Paris Club, saving billions of
dollars a year in interest payments, and no longer needs to go cap in hand to
the IMF for periodic bailouts as happened during much of the 1990s.
Russia has set up a Stabilization Fund on the lines of Norway and other
countries to soak up petrodollars and prevent the Dutch disease: by April 1,
2007, the Fund had reached 2.8 trillion rubles ($108.02 billion) and inflation
has been falling, although it is still too high.
Russia's finance ministry is replacing the annual budget plan with a new
three-year budget to cover 2008-10 with the aim of stabilizing and rationalizing
the country's finances and expenditures.
Pointing to the successful experience of other countries using this approach,
the hope is that departments will be able to allocate money more effectively
over a three-year period, rather than having to return unused money to the
government at the end of the financial year as under the current system.
All of this has been made possible by the favorable external economic
environment.
But this manna from heaven has not yet led to real diversification in the
economy, and manufacturing and services remain underdeveloped.
Moreover, despite growth averaging over 6% per annum since 2000 and a
veritable consumer boom based on oil and credit, Russia is only now recovering
to the output levels of the early 1990s following what many see as the biggest
collapse in an economy during peacetime in the 20th century.
President Putin and the government are of course aware that the economy is
far too dependent on commodities, and that economic growth over the next few
years would no longer be driven by oil to the same extent as earlier.
The Kremlin has also been emphasizing for some time now that more processing
of its huge raw materials must be done in Russia in order to export higher value
added products in industries such as oil and timber.
It is also keen to develop high-tech areas such as nanotechnology and is
investing in a series of science parks across the country.
The government is setting up investment and venture funds to help finance
these areas, but it remains to be seen how all of this will be implemented in
practice.
The national projects introduced by the Kremlin in 2005, aimed at improving
the country's education, agriculture and providing affordable housing, for
example, have not resulted in huge spending programs.
And as Putin said this week, the housing sector is characterized by "very
high" corruption - which in the Russian context is a damning indictment,
although hardly front-page news.
The president also speaks of the need to develop a middle class, and yet
corruption, bureaucracy and onerous laws are widely seen as inhibiting the
country's economic development by placing too great a burden on small and
medium-sized enterprises.
Comparisons are always risky, but Tony Blair's recent announcement of his
forthcoming resignation as British Prime Minister highlights the problems of
achieving real improvement in public services through government intervention in
one of the richest countries in the world.
Most agree that Britain's huge investment in health and education over the
last 10 years have failed to produce the desired and expected results.
The weakness of Russia's banking and transport infrastructure are also areas
where future bottlenecks are likely.
Russia might have paid back its sovereign debt, but commercial debt has been
rising fast, leading some observers to point to the risk of a future banking
crisis due to the high level of non-performing loans.
And although the government wants to attract much-needed foreign investment,
its approach is unlikely to bring in the vast amounts required.
This Friday, Sergei Ivanov, deputy prime minister and widely tipped as a
possible future president, said that Russia would put in place incentives to
attract foreign investment.
But these proposals repeat the very same mistake as the first laws on joint
ventures with foreign companies which Mikhail Gorbachev put forward in the late
1980s - money would be welcome, but the Soviet enterprises would be in control.
Twenty years on, it is Russian companies that will remain in charge.
So Russia seems to have missed a good opportunity
in recent years to reform the economy, while the weakness of the state raises
questions about how far the government could implement any such program.
Key policy changes to address these issues would make a major difference, but
it seems that the government is reluctant to embrace them at the moment.
Despite the rhetoric of recent months, however, Russia did have a good piece
of news on the economic front this week.
Although Moscow's attempt to joint the World Trade Organization has been
fraught with difficulties, ministers from the 30 members of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the Paris-based club of rich
countries, said that they would begin talks on membership with Russia, as well
as with Chile, Estonia, Israel and Slovenia.
Ian Pryde is CEO of Eurasia Strategy & Communications, Moscow.
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