#36 - JRL 2007-109 - JRL Home
Turkmenistan: New President Modifying Niyazov's
Neutrality Policy
By Jean-Christophe Peuch
Copyright (c) 2007. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
www.rferl.orgMay 10, 2007 (RFE/RL)
-- While reasserting the policy of neutrality of his predecessor, Turkmen
President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov has signaled a desire to end
Turkmenistan's self-isolation and to repair ties with its Central Asian
neighbors. He has also indicated that he is willing to engage more actively with
Russia and reach out to the West.
Since Berdymukhammedov officially took over from late Turkmen President
Saparmurat Niyazov in mid-February, Ashgabat has become a center of intense
diplomatic activity as high-ranking visitors from around the world have flocked
to the Turkmen capital to meet its new master.
Energy-Filled Agenda
Berdymukhammedov has invited his Russian and Kazakh counterparts, Vladimir
Putin and Nursultan Nazarbaev, respectively, to take part in three-way talks on
May 12 that are to focus on energy cooperation.
Berdymukhammedov told his cabinet on March 7 that the upcoming summit --
which will take place in the Caspian Sea city port of Turkmenbashi -- is
designed "to open a new chapter in the relations of friendship and cooperation
that have been existing for centuries among neighbors that are ready to take
advantage of new historical conditions and make those relations even more
efficient and multivectorial."
All grandiloquence apart, Berdymukhammedov's statement may signal a shift
from his predecessor's foreign policy-making, which depended largely on the ties
that existed between the Turkmen autocrat and foreign industrial groups such as
the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom.
Under Niyazov, Gazprom became Turkmenistan's main economic partner, buying
nearly 70 percent of its annual natural gas output and reexporting it to
Ukraine, the Caucasus, and Europe at great profit.
Meanwhile, former President Niyazov's insistence on boycotting all
Russian-led regional groupings (CIS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the
Eurasian Economic Community, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization)
and his discriminatory policy toward Turkmenistan's 160,000 ethnic Russians led
to a cooling of political relations between Ashgabat and Moscow.
Friendly To All
The Moscow-based daily "Vremya Novostei" recently quoted unnamed Kremlin
officials as saying they are satisfied with what they believe is "a pro-Russian
trend in Turkmenistan's post-Niyazov foreign policy."
Under Niyazov, Ashgabat had progressively isolated itself from all other
regional capitals.
Relations with Azerbaijan reached a record low because of an ownership
dispute over the Serdar-Kapaz Caspian Sea oil field and ties with Uzbekistan had
become frosty amid border tensions and Niyazov's claims that Tashkent was
involved in an alleged assassination attempt against him in 2002.
By contrast, Berdymukhammedov has clearly indicated that he is willing to
engage neighboring countries.
The presidents of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, the prime ministers of Russia
and Azerbaijan, and the speaker of the Uzbek parliament were among the many
foreign guests who attended his inauguration on February 14.
A number of senior Russian and Kazakh government officials recently visited
the Turkmen capital and Berdymukhammedov has extended his Uzbek and Azerbaijani
counterparts invitations to visit Ashgabat.
Going Around Russia?
The Turkmen president made a two-day visit to Moscow in April, which he
praised as marking "the beginning of a new era in bilateral relations."
If the Turkmen leader is interested in mending ties with his neighbors, the
reverse is also true.
The United States supports a project to pump Central Asian natural gas to
Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea and on to Georgia, Turkey, and Western markets
through the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline.
Following Niyazov's death, Washington renewed calls for Turkmenistan to join
the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) project.
Addressing a recent energy conference in Tbilisi, U.S. Ambassador to Georgia
John Tefft said that Washington wished "to see Turkmenistan develop its energy
reserves and for those reserves to have a market value so that Turkmenistan has
several options to export its gas," the Civil Georgia website reported on March
22.
In comments made to the British daily "The Independent" on April 18, Matthew
Bryza, the U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian
affairs, called on Western countries to "reach out" to the new Turkmen
government to circumvent Gazprom's monopoly over Central Asian energy exports.
New Caspian Pipeline?
The Kremlin, which needs to ensure steady flows of Central Asian gas for its
export needs, in turn seeks to revive plans to build another pipeline that would
run along the Caspian Sea shore and link Turkmenistan to Russia, via Kazakhstan.
Following his talks with Putin last month, Berdymukhammedov said he will
instruct Turkmen experts to conduct a new assessment of the project, which had
been shelved by Niyazov.
Observers note that Kazakhstan would also benefit from teaming up with
Turkmenistan, not least of all because Central Asia's two largest hydrocarbon
producers complement each other -- Kazakhstan produces mainly oil, while the
bulk of Turkmenistan's output is made of gas -- and could work together to make
their export pipeline projects more profitable.
Kazakh Prime Minister Karim Masimov, who was in Ashgabat earlier this month,
said after talks with Tachberdy Tagyyev, the Turkmen deputy prime minister in
charge of the energy sector, that both countries will now "coordinate" their
energy transportation policies and consult each other on all related issues.
Also this month, Kazakhstan officially renewed a proposal to host a section
of Turkmenistan's planned gas export pipeline to China that Niyazov had pledged
would be operational by 2009. Astana also suggested that the future
Turkmenistan-China pipeline should run through Uzbekistan.
Just like his Kazakh counterpart, Berdymukhammedov seems unwilling to put all
his eggs in one basket.
Last week he invited major U.S. oil company Chevron to take part in the
development of Turkmenistan's Caspian Sea shelf and other energy projects.
Oil market analysts believe the proposal could be a signal for other western
majors that have thus far been left out of the country's energy projects during
Niyazov's tenure.
Additionally, at least three high-ranking U.S. State Department officials
have visited Ashgabat since Berdymukhammedov's inauguration, including
Ambassador Steven Mann, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for South
and Central Asian affairs.
Although state media in Ashgabat reported that Mann had come to extend an
offer to help Turkmenistan rebuild its depleted health and education systems,
the Russian daily "Kommersant" on March 6 cited Mann's background as a senior
energy adviser to argue that he likely tried to convince Berdymukhammedov to
join the TCGP project.
U.S. officials clearly believe Turkmenistan is at a crossroad.
U.S. Optimism
"We feel we have the chance to open up an absolutely new chapter in our
engagement with Turkmenistan," Bryza told "The Independent" in April. "My
colleagues who have visited [Ashgabat] since President Niyazov's death have been
pleasantly surprised by the degree to which the new president seems to want to
open to the West," he added.
Meanwhile, Berdymukhammedov has said he will meet the energy commitments that
his predecessor made toward China and Iran.
He has also left open the possibility of Turkmenistan joining the Eurasian
Economic Community or reintegrating the CIS as a full-fledged member.
Interestingly enough, he has also left unanswered Putin's recent proposals to
renew defense and intelligence ties between the two countries.
In all likelihood, the new Turkmen president has decided to keep all his
options open.
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