#8 - JRL 2006-64 - JRL Home
Moscow Times
March 14, 2006
Russia Lays Out Energy Demands
By Stephen Boykewich and Maria Levitov
Staff Writers
Russia was on the defensive at the start of a major energy conference on
Monday, emphasizing the need for massive investment and guaranteed demand if it
is to fulfill its role as a guarantor of global energy security.
The two-day conference on international energy security, which precedes a
meeting of the Group of Eight energy ministers on Thursday, comes amid sky-high
oil prices and rocketing demand in developing countries such as China and India.
Russia has put the topic at the head of the agenda for its G8 presidency this
year, positioning itself as a leader in safeguarding global energy supplies.
"We have set ourselves the task of providing the world with energy resources
on a reliable, long-term basis," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the
conference. "Russia can make a constructive contribution toward fulfilling this
task, and is already doing so."
But even as Russia touts its role, the European Union is seeking to reduce
its dependence on Russian energy, spooked by growing state involvement in the
sector and recent drops in gas delivery.
Gazprom deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev aggressively refuted doubts about the
monopoly's reliability as an energy partner, blaming the media for stoking
European fears during Gazprom's price dispute with Ukraine earlier this year.
"Gazprom was, is and will be a reliable guarantor of gas supplies to Europe,"
Medvedev said at the conference to a smattering of applause.
Gas supplies to Europe fell in January and February, fueling European calls
to diversify away from Russian energy. The most recent came in an EU green paper
on energy security last week that said "a true partnership" with Russia was
lacking.
Speaking on the sidelines of the conference, Medvedev called the EU's
approach "unilateral" and "totally unjustified," as it failed to take into
account Gazprom's need for reliable, long-term buyers.
"You can't have road safety by taking care of pedestrians without thinking of
drivers' security, too," he said.
"[EU] dependency is only going to increase," Medvedev said. "There are only
four sources of gas in the world: Qatar, Iran, Algeria and Russia."
When asked whether Russia was the only one of the four that could be
considered stable, Medvedev said, "You can answer that question yourself."
The European Union is Russia's largest energy consumer, with Gazprom
supplying one-quarter of Europe's natural gas.
"Without the interests of suppliers, sufficient responsibility by transit
countries and adequate access by producers to liberalized European markets, all
this talk is good only for the journalists who use Gazprom to scare little
children," Medvedev said.
Compounding concerns about gas supplies are worries about the lag in Russian
oil production growth, which hit a high of 13 percent year on year in 2003, but
had fallen as low as 2 percent by January 2006 as compared to January 2005.
U.S. Deputy Energy Secretary David Sampson echoed the frequent Western
contention that the state's hand in the sector was hampering growth, telling the
conference that "opportunities are lost when governments fail to welcome private
capital."
"Every country has a right to handle its energy resources" as it sees fit,
Sampson said on the sidelines of the conference. "I'm here to advocate for the
role of markets in allocating capital."
Sampson called on Gazprom to "work more quickly with American companies" in
developing Shtokman, a massive natural gas field in the Barents Sea that is
thought to contain 3.2 trillion cubic meters of gas.
Gazprom will choose two to three foreign partners for the $20 billion project
by April 15, Medvedev said Monday. The shortlist includes American oil majors
ConocoPhillips and Chevron, France's Total, and Norway's Statoil and Norsk
Hydro.
Asked if increased U.S. dependence on Russian energy carried risks, Sampson
invoked Winston Churchill, quoting the former British prime minister as saying:
"'Safety and certainty in oil lay in variety and variety alone.' That's what our
strategy is," he added.
Energy and Industry Minister Viktor Khristenko offered an oblique response to
critics of the state's hand in the energy sector.
"Market reforms are not an end in themselves, but an instrument to raise the
efficient and reliable function of world energy," Khristenko told the
conference. "An inalienable part of that process is the regulatory role of
government in ... eliminating the risks of energy insecurity."
The most immediate solution to the global energy crunch is major new
investment, the minister said. He cited an estimate by the International Energy
Agency that $17 trillion in energy investment is needed through 2030, two-thirds
of it for hydrocarbon extraction and refining.
A significant share of the rising global energy needs comes from China's
superheated economy, which has doubled the country's oil and gas consumption in
the past decade, LUKoil CEO Vagit Alekperov said during the conference. Average
global energy consumption has risen 16 percent during that period, Alekperov
said.
Zhang Guobao, deputy minister of China's Development Reform Commission, said
that the country planned to boost energy efficiency and increase its reliance on
internal resources, such as coal reserves, which are plentiful in China.
Still, Guobao said, "oil extraction in China will remain at the level of 180
to 200 million tons over the next 10 years." And while Chinese imports of oil
products dropped from 26.3 million tons in 2004 to 17.4 million tons last year,
its overall oil imports increased by 2.4 million tons from 2004 to 2005,
reaching 180 million tons last year, according to Guobao.
With such enormous energy demands in mind, numerous conference participants
called for an increase in non-hydrocarbon energy sources, especially nuclear
power.
Lavrov touted President Vladimir Putin's plan to "open the road of atomic
energy to all governments" by making Russia a global provider of enriched
nuclear fuel.
Federal Atomic Energy Agency chief Sergei Kiriyenko said the plan would
expand developing nations' access to nuclear power while reducing the risk that
civil nuclear programs might be used to hide nuclear weapons development -- as
the United States accuses Iran of doing.
But with oil and gas likely to fill the bulk of the world's energy needs in
the near future, participants also said that energy importers should help Russia
foot the bill for helping ensure global supplies.
Russia can act as a stabilizer for the global energy market only if it has
guaranteed demand for its resources, said Alexander Shokhin, head of the Russian
Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, at the conference Monday.
Total's senior vice president, Menno Grouvel, also said that the long-term
security of Russian energy supplies required stable energy sector development.
The country invests $15 billion each year to modernize and develop its energy
sector, but needs to invest $40 billion in order to expand global energy
supplies, Grouvel said.
He suggested that energy-importing countries help Russia come up with half of
its energy sector modernization costs -- $20 billion per year -- since about 50
percent of Russia's hydrocarbon extraction is for export.
A staggering 90 percent of the world's gross domestic product is produced by
countries that import energy, Khristenko said.
LUKoil's Alekperov noted that Russia had nearly four times the energy
reserves controlled by the G7 nations, but said Russia's aging industrial
infrastructure was threatening to make the country a petrol-products importer as
early as 2009.
Only one modern oil-refining plant has been built in Russia since 1966,
Alekperov said, calling for greater investment in the energy sector's
oil-refining technology.
"Companies are ready to invest, but they come up against unstable tax
legislation and political encumbrances," Alekperov said. As a result, potential
investors, the state and all energy market participants lose out, he said.
TNK-BP president Robert Dudley reiterated Alekperov's call for clearer
investment terms.
"The oil and gas industry is one of very long lead times," Dudley said on the
sidelines of the conference. "All of the companies in the country need to start
investing now, but to do that we need to have a clear investment framework."
Still, he commended Russia for putting energy security at the top of the
agenda during its G8 presidency, saying it gave political and industry leaders
the chance to sift through investment and regulatory issues, as well as to
discuss concrete projects.
"It's no longer the case that energy security is only about supply
disruptions," Dudley said.
Staff Writer Catherine Belton contributed to this report.
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