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CDI Russia Weekly
        Issue # 81         December 24, 1999

Edited by David Johnson
The CDI Russia Weekly is a weekly e-mail newsletter that carries news and analysis on all aspects of today's Russia, including political, economic, social, military, and foreign policy issues. With funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, CDI Russia Weekly is a project of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information (CDI), a nonprofit research and education organization. To receive a free subscription, e-mail David Johnson at djohnson@cdi.org
 
Contents
  1. AFP: Yeltsin surprises world by abandoning Kremlin.
  2. AFP: Yeltsin resignation puts new uncertainty into US-Russian ties.
  3. RFE/RL: Floriana Fossato, Reasons Behind Yeltsin's Resignation.
  4. Moscow Times EDITORIAL: Nikitin Trial 1999's Last Great Gift.
  5. AFP: Putin rocked Russians with ruthlessness.
  6. Christian Science Monitor: Fred Weir, Where Rebellion is a tradition. Russia may take Grozny, again. Then?
  7. Boston Globe: David Filipov, Russians mired in mud, slowed by rebel snipers. Artillery, tanks counter Chechen gunmen.
  8. RIA Novosti: Valentin Kunin, WHY DOES NOT PEACE IN CHECHNYA SUIT USA?
  9. RFE/RL: Sophie Lambroschini, Grandfather Frost Dispute Roils New Year.


#1
Yeltsin surprises world by abandoning Kremlin


MOSCOW, Dec 31 (AFP) - 
Boris Yeltsin quit the Russian presidency on Friday, stunning the world and 
handing the keys to the Kremlin and Russia's nuclear arsenal to his anointed 
successor, premier Vladimir Putin.


"I am going," Yeltsin said in an emotional television address which ended 
nine turbulent years as president and surprised the nation as it stood on the 
threshold of a new century.


"Russia must enter the new millennium with new politicians, new forces, 
intelligent, strong, energetic people. Now, those of us who have been in 
power for many years must go," Yeltsin said.


Yeltsin's decision to quit six months early was a master stroke clearly 
designed to make Putin, a 47-year-old former KGB spy, a shoo-in as president, 
analysts said.


Putin's popularity has soared with his tough handling of the Chechen war and 
he appears well-placed to replace Yeltsin in an early vote a top election 
official said could take place on March 26.


Yeltsin passed the codes for Russia's mighty nuclear arsenal to the new 
acting head of state before leaving the Kremlin for the last time as 
president around 2:00 p.m. (1100 GMT), bound for his Gorky-9 residence 
outside Moscow.


"I did all I could," declared 68-year-old Yeltsin, adding: "Russia will never 
return to the past. Russia from now on will only move forward."


After lurching economic change and an uneven track record on democracy, which 
included the shelling of a recalcitrant parliament into submission in 1993, 
it was time to change the guard, Yeltsin said.


"I have been replaced by a new generation. I have charged the head of the 
government, Vladimir Putin, to take over my duties. The people will decide 
the rest in three months," said Yeltsin.


Russia's new leader vowed to defend free speech and human rights, according 
to the text of an upcoming New Year's presidential address, quoted by 
ITAR-TASS.


"Freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, freedom of media and private 
ownership -- these are the defining elements of a civilised society," said 
Putin in his first to the nation since becoming acting president.


The address was scheduled to be broadcast on television later Friday.


Meanwhile Putin vowed Moscow's foreign policy would remain unchanged, the 
Kremlin said, adding that Putin had signed a decree granting Yeltsin immunity 
from prosecution and other personal guarantees.


US President Bill Clinton, who called Yeltsin after the landmark 
announcement, said his "lasting achievement has been dismantling that 
Communist system and building new political institutions under democratically 
elected leaders within a constitutional framework."


French President Jacques Chirac spoke of Yeltsin's "historic role" in putting 
Russia on the path to democracy and economic reform, while British Prime 
Minister Tony Blair said "the world is more stable and secure as a result of 
Boris Yeltsin's leadership."


Former political rival Mikhail Gorbachev however told AFP: "It would have 
been better if he had done it a year-and-a-half or two years ago, or in 1996."


Yeltsin's announcement came out of the blue, maintaining to the last his 
reputation for springing surprises on the political establishment.


Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Defence Minister Igor Sergeyev and Interior 
Minister Vladimir Rushailo were only informed of the sensational news in a 
private meeting with Yeltsin on Friday morning, Interfax reported.


A snap poll by the radio station showed 58 percent of Muscovites were 
delighted with the news, while 42 percent expressed sadness.


The Kremlin chief, who stared down an attempted coup by Communist hardliners 
nine years ago, dropped the bombshell just after midday in a statement 
broadcast on the state-run ORT television.


Clearly emotional, Yeltsin paused several times, looking directly at the 
camera for several moments after announcing: "Today I am addressing you for 
the last time as president.


"I have thought about it for a long time, and with great pain. Today, the 
last day of the outgoing century, I am resigning," said Yeltsin, whose eyes 
peeked out of a wan, puffy face.


He denied his resignation was linked to his chronic poor health, saying it 
was "for a whole variety of reasons."


"I have heard several times that Yeltsin would cling to power by any means, 
and that I would hand over to nobody. That's all lies," he said.


December 19 legislative elections had passed off as planned, said Yeltsin, 
and although he would have preferred to see out his term to July 2000, the 
country now had an unrivalled opportunity for a peaceful handover.


"We could create a precedent, the civilised and voluntary transfer of power 
from one Russian president to another, newly elected. But I took a different 
decision."


The silver-haired Yeltsin struck a personal note saying: "I want to ask your 
forgiveness" for mistakes he had committed during his two terms as president.


The suffering of millions of ordinary Russians during the dash to a market 
economy had caused him sleepless nights, he said.


"I was not able to justify the hopes of some people who believed that we 
would be able to move forward in one fell swoop from a grey totalitarian and 
stagnant past to a bright, rich and civilised future," he said.


The political earthquake means Putin, a former chief of the domestic 
intelligence agency, is almost certain to succeed Yeltsin at the head of this 
former superpower, say analysts.


A political nobody when he was appointed on August 9, Putin has quickly 
established a reputation as an efficient, tough manager, an image that has 
put him in a seemingly unassailable position.


Parties allied to Putin performed strongly in elections to the lower house 
State Duma earlier this month, while the premier's potential rivals were 
blown away by a Soviet-style campaign of denigration on state-run television.


Back to the top


#2
Yeltsin resignation puts new uncertainty into US-Russian ties


WASHINGTON, Dec 31 (AFP) - 
Russian President Boris Yeltsin's resignation may not have been a complete 
surprise to the United States, but his sudden departure from power will bring 
a further element of uncertainty into already strained ties between 
Washington and Moscow, officials and analysts said Friday.


President Bill Clinton was quick to signal his willingness for a close 
working relationship with new Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. However it will 
take time -- perhaps longer than Clinton has in his final remaining year in 
office -- to come close to establishing with Putin the same connection he had 
with Yeltsin, analysts said.


Forging those ties will be made more difficult with heated differences over 
Moscow's Chechnya campaign -- a Putin pet project -- still boiling, as well 
as Washington's deepening concern over crime and corruption in Russia, as 
well as mutual recrimination lingering from a recent series of espionage 
incidents.


Key disarmament issues will be thrown into volatile mix, including the 
ratification of START II treaty, negotiations over START III, and the 
controversial US national missile defense proposal, which Russia vehemently 
opposes.


Just last week striking differences over missile defense arose again, with US 
Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott failing in decidedly chilly visit to 
Moscow to make any headway on the matter.


"I don't think it bodes terribly well," former national security adviser 
Richard Pipes said of Putin's accession to power.


"Putin is not a democrat, he is not a communist but he is not a democrat," 
said Pipes, now a Harvard University historian, referring to Putin's strong 
nationalist bent and KGB background.


"He is essentially an apparatchik, he doesn't have any of the same 
statesmanlike qualities as Yeltsin and he is going to be much more difficult 
for Clinton and the next (US) president to deal with," Pipes said.


Clinton lauded the constitutional manner in which Putin took office in a 
statement hailing Yeltsin's reformist tenure in power. The US leader 
indicated that the transition process was perhaps one of Yeltsin's most 
important democratization successes.


"The fact that Prime Minister Putin assumes responsibility today as acting 
president in accordance with the constitution is but the latest example of 
the achievement," Clinton said.


But mere process is not enough to herald a renewal in trust between 
Washington and Moscow, analysts said.


"Putin is a man who has built his reputation on the campaign in Chechnya and 
I don't see much reason for hope in that," said David Kramer, the associate 
director for Russian-Eurasian Affairs at the Carnegie Endowment for 
International Peace.


Kramer, a strong critic of the Chechnya offensive, sees in Putin the 
possibility of a partial return to Russia's authoritarian past with a 
corresponding deterioration in US-Russia ties.


"When (Putin) talks to Westerners, he talks about good relations because he 
has to," Kramer said, noting Moscow's dependence on foreign aid. "But inside 
the country it's very different.


"While I don't expect any dramatic shift, I think the tenor of relations has 
been very bad and is not likely to improve at least until both countries have 
their next presidential elections."


Russia is due for that election in June, while the United States will hold 
its presidential poll in November.


US officials, meanwhile, tried to paint as positive a picture as they could, 
saying Yeltsin's resignation would have no dramatic effect on the situation. 


"Any time you have a change in leadership at this level and of this 
importance, its going to cause a few hiccups, I expect this will not be 
different," said one senior State Department official.


"But it is not the end of the world. We've had differences before and will 
have them again no matter who is in charge. The important thing is to keep 
the dialogue going."


Back to the top


#3
Russia: Analysis - Reasons Behind Yeltsin's Resignation
By By Floriana Fossato


Boris Yeltsin today made the announcement that his political foes have been 
hoping to hear for a long time. He resigned as Russian president. However, 
the circumstances of Yeltsin's decision -- the victory of pro-Kremlin parties 
in the recent parliamentary vote, the mostly positive, for the moment, 
devlopments of the war in Chechnya -- clearly indicate that Yeltsin did not 
decide to resign because of pressure from his opponents. RFE/RL correspondent 
Floriana Fossato examines the possible motivations behind Yeltsin's surprise 
move. 


London, 31 December 1999 (NCA/Floriana Fossato) -- Calls for Russian 
President Boris Yeltsin's resignation have been common since the heart 
operation that followed his last re-election in the Summer of 1996. 


Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov, Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov and many 
commentators in the West and in Russia have reacted to Yeltsin's many 
illnesses and to the political and financial scandals of recent years by 
saying it was time for Yeltsin to go. 


But the 68-year-old Russian president always dismissed the calls, saying he 
wanted to lead a democratic Russia into the 21 century. That is, until this 
morning, when he made his surprise announcement. 


Yeltsin: "Dear friends, my dear ones, today I am wishing you New Year 
greetings for the last time. But that is not all. Today I am addressing you 
for the last time as Russian president. I have made a decision. I have 
contemplated this long and hard. Today, on the last day of the outgoing 
century, I am retiring." 


Following Yeltsin's final piece of high political theatre, Prime Minister 
Vladimir Putin becomes acting president and presidential elections will take 
place at the end of March, instead of June. 


Yeltsin is a man who has long enjoyed surprising his political enemies. One 
of the main reasons why he was able to stay in power despite adverse 
circumstances in Soviet and post-Soviet times is that he believes attack is 
the best form of defense. He has seldom hesitated before using this 
technique, at times ruthlessly, against his enemies. And it has, by and 
large, paid off. 


Today, again, Yeltsin chose to attack before he -- or rather his entourage -- 
risked losing the clear advantage gained as a result of the December 19 
parliamentary vote and of what has so far been a largely successful military 
operation in Chechnya. 


Yeltsin had made it sufficiently clear in the last year that he would not 
give up his grip on power until he was sure the transfer would mean that a 
man he trusted would become the next Russian president. It is widely believed 
that one reason for the staunch opposition of the so-called "family" 
surrounding Yeltsin to the presidential ambitions of Luzhkov, Zyuganov and 
particularly of former prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has been that none 
would give guarantees of a peaceful and prosperous future for Yeltsin and of 
his entourage. 


Former secret service (FSB) head Putin, hand-picked by the Kremlin only a few 
months ago, seems to offer that guarantee. And the way Putin's government has 
been conducting military operations in Chechnya appealed to the Russian 
public to the extent that in a matter of months he was transformed into 
Russia's most popular politician. 


The political parties endorsed by Putin -- including "Unity," the new 
'party-of-power' created by Kremlin strategists with the goal of siphoning 
votes off from the Communists and Luzhkov and Primakov's "Fatherland-All 
Russia" bloc, posted a surprisingly strong result on December 19. This should 
allow the government to better control the Duma. The campaign in Chechnya, 
despite recent reports of Russian Army losses in the fight with Chechen 
militants for control of the capital, Grozny, is perceived by the Russian 
public as not only legitimate, but also victorious so far. This background 
looks rather favorable for the Kremlin and for Putin's presidential bid. 


Following Yeltsin's announcement today, RFE/RL spoke with several 
Moscow-based analysts who spoke on condition of anonymity. Some told RFE/RL 
that Kremlin strategists may have worried about possible complications if the 
presidential election was held as scheduled in June. 


According to one of the analysts, there are intertwining factors that 
together could have motivated Yeltsin's move. The first is Chechnya. Most 
Russian military experts have raised doubts that military operations could 
continue in the same "victorious" way until June. According to the military 
experts, as Chechen militants organize themselves in partisan groups based in 
hideouts in the mountains of southern Chechnya, it will become increasingly 
difficult for Russian forces to maintain their present progress. 


However, the experts point out that the on-going offensive in Grozny, where 
heavy fighting is being reported and air-strikes on Chechen positions are 
continuing, could have a positive outcome for the Russian Army. Defense 
Minister Igor Sergeyev has said he expects the offensive to come to an end in 
the next weeks. 


Russian control of Grozny, says one analyst, would allow Putin's government 
to declare victory over the Chechens in the next two months. And he added 
that, "riding this wave, Putin would easily enter the Kremlin on a white 
horse." 


But this, agree all the analysts, has to happen soon. If the Chechen campaign 
stagnates or turns against Russian forces, Putin's popularity ratings could 
start falling between now and June. 


The often rapidly changing fates of Russian politicians can be seen in what 
has happened to Primakov this last year. Until the Summer he was the darling 
of the Russian public. But during the recent campaign for the Duma, thanks 
largely to a vicious campaign launched against him and Luzhkov by media 
controlled either by the state or by Kremlin insiders, Primakov's popularity 
fell dramatically. 


So the power of the media in Russia -- used to sling mud at one's political 
opponents -- was once again made evident. This brings us to another factor 
possibly behind Yeltsin's decision. 


Moscow is full of rumors that Primakov's side is preparing a new campaign of 
compromising materials -- this time against Putin -- that would reportedly 
start soon on media outlets controlled by Kremlin opponents. One analyst says 
that Kremlin strategist may have come to the conclusion that, if this media 
campaign and setbacks in Chechnya came together at the same time, they would 
run too great a risk of losing the presidency to their opponents. 


Back to the top


#4
What a wonderful way to end the ambivalent year of 1999 - with the long, long 
overdue acquittal of Alexander Nikitin. 

Nikitin, a retired Russian navy captain, documented the navy's negligence in 
handling nuclear waste. His published report was clearly inspired by a 
public-spirited desire to help his fellow citizens. We would call this the 
highest sort of patriotism - a love of country that is far more noble than 
that, for example, driving the war in Chechnya. 


The Federal Security Service, or FSB, never saw it that way. They accused 
Nikitin of being a traitor and a spy. Their argument was grounded in 
xenophobia - the report was published by a Norwegian environmental group, so 
Nikitin clearly liked working with the West too much and so was a "spy" - and 
on Kafkaesque legal idiocies. 


For example: Nikitin was accused of having broken "secret" laws - Defense 
Ministry decrees that had never been published - which had classified some of 
the research materials he used as top secret. True, nobody had told Nikitin 
that he had broken an unwritten law - and as FSB prosecutors once explained, 
even they hadn't seen the secret decrees they had built their treason case 
upon. They were that secret. 


It was that kind of case: absurd. Nikitin was held in jail for 10 months 
while the new-and-improved KGB crowd scratched their heads over what to 
charge him with. In St. Petersburg, the FSB ran around confiscating copies of 
the report he had written - even though the report could also be found on the 
Internet. 


When Vladimir Putin - former St. Petersburg deputy mayor, former KGB man - 
became head of the FSB, the case droned on. When Putin became prime minister 
and a national hero, the case still droned on. Things were looking bad indeed 
for Nikitin. 


Reporters from The St. Petersburg Times, our sister paper, continued to 
document FSB surveillance and harassment of the Nikitins. This year, the head 
of St. Petersburg's FSB press center was appointed to run the news at the 
local television station, and before long Petersburg television was reporting 
that the war in Yugoslavia was Nikitin's fault too. (The argument being that 
spies like him had left Russia's nuclear deterrent a joke, and NATO free to 
act with impunity.) 


And yet, we finally have an acquittal - one that bluntly unmasks the idiocy 
of charging a man with having violated a secret, never-published law, and one 
that pokes holes in the other mean-spirited little horrors that have 
characterized these four years of KGB thuggishness. We look forward to a 21st 
century when the FSB will leave the Nikitins, and so many others like them, 
alone. 


Back to the top


#5
Vladimir Putin, the poker-faced ex-KGB spy, once tried to westernize a 
crumbling Soviet Union but has since galvanized a new Russia and is vowing to 
annihilate the rebels of Chechnya.

"We'll get them anywhere -- if we find terrorists sitting in the outhouse, 
then we will piss on them there. That's it. The matter is settled," barked 
Putin shortly after Russia launched its Chechen war in September.
Such talk could have cost his predecessors their job. But it boosted Putin's 
career.

He became acting president Friday when Boris Yeltsin suddenly announced he 
was stepping down, and is likely to retain the Kremlin hot seat for years to 
come.

Yeltsin, ailing and being edged out of power by his closest advisers, named 
the then virtually unknown security chief as prime minister last August.
He had been running the secretive but omnipotent Security Council.
He has since turned into one of the most admired figures Russia has seen this 
decade, even his opponents singing his praises.

"Putin has enchanted Russia," wrote Vyacheslav Kostikov, a former Kremlin 
spokesman and current board member of a Media-MOST empire that has campaigned 
heavily against the government.

"I honestly believe that Putin is capable of heroic deeds in the name of our 
humiliated Russia," Kostikov said.

Yet the 47-year-old prime minister and acting president remains a political 
enigma.

He helped found a new party, Unity, which rode into the State Duma (the lower 
house of parliament) on the back of his popularity in December 19 elections.
The party is described as "centrist." But the respected Moscow Times said in 
an editorial: "There is no particular reason to believe that Unity is 
'centrist,' unless 'centrist' is another word for 'unknown.'"

The English-language newspaper added: "But what seems clear is that the 
Kremlin has been dealt a winning hand -- or the Kremlin has dealt itself a 
winning hand, depending on one's point of view."

What can be gleamed from Putin's bare biography suggests that he is 
intelligent and cunning, trusted enough by peers to be handed some of the 
most sensitive assignments.

Putin "was shaped by the single greatest mission in the history of the KGB," 
wrote the US-based private global intelligence firm Stratfor.
That mission was the "systematic restructuring of the Soviet economy, Soviet 
society and Soviet relations with the West in the hope of preserving the 
state and the regime."

Putin spent the 1980s in Berlin, where intelligence observers believe he 
slipped into West Germany to learn trade secrets of such companies as US 
computer giant IBM.

Observers believe KGB officers knew the Soviet Union was in ruins and could 
be preserved only by revolutionising its lagging technology and attracting 
investors from the West.

It remains unclear how successful Putin was. But he became the chief liaison 
for foreign investors after joining the pro-reform team of Saint Petersburg 
Mayor Anatoly Sabchak in 1994.

Local journalists report that it was impossible to make foreign investments 
in Russia's second city without first contacting Putin.

He then also became a trusted ally of economics chief Anatoly Chubais, who 
brought Putin to Moscow in 1996 and made him responsible for monitoring 
regional leaders who were seeking greater independence from Moscow.
One political analyst reported that Putin was told to collect so-called 
"compromising material" on governors which could then be used as an 
"incentive" for them to toe the Kremlin line.

Analysts suggest the Kremlin is now repaying Putin by making him the star of 
a well orchestrated media public relations campaign, one which has put his 
presidential rating at an unheralded 46 percent.

The latest Public Opinion Foundation poll said Russians were three times as 
likely to vote for Putin in presidential election due in June than his 
nearest rival, Communist Party boss Gennady Zyuganov.

"Russia was and will remain a great country," Putin wrote in a 14-page essay 
entitled "Russia on the Threshold of a New Millenium" published this week on 
the government's Internet web site.

The message, at once an outline of policy objectives and a philosophical 
expose, was striking both in its relaxed tone and a novel content that mixed 
Western democratic and market ideals with traditional Russian mores.
"Russia is never going to be another USA or England, where liberal values 
have deep historic roots," Putin asserted.
"It is a fact that in Russia the attraction to a collective way of life has 
always been stronger than the desire for individualism."

At the same time, though, the country and its people understand better than 
many the dangers that a government -- particularly an executive branch -- 
endowed with excessive power can pose to people's freedom, he said.
"The global experience prompts the conclusion that the main threat to human 
rights and freedoms, to democracy as such, emanates from the executive 
authority," Putin wrote.
"The state must be where and as needed; freedom must be where and as 
required."


Back to the top


#6
Christian Science Monitor 
31 December 1999 
Where rebellion is a tradition 
Russia may take Grozny, again. Then? 
By Fred Weir, Special to The Christian Science Monitor

Rugged and remote, a bewildering patchwork of ethnic identities and the 
violent historic frontier between Christianity and Islam, the Caucasus has 
been a seedbed of war and insurrection for centuries. 

Conquerors have occupied its green river valleys and gentle coasts only to be 
driven away by mountain warriors sweeping in from the heights above. 
It took Russia 150 years to subdue the Caucasian isthmus, which joins Europe 
to Asia between the Black Sea and the landlocked Caspian. But with the 
collapse of the Soviet Union a decade ago, Moscow's grip faltered. The 
southern states of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia broke free and have since 
drifted toward the West. 

The current three-month-old war, now focused on the Chechen capital, Grozny, 
and mountains to the south, is post-Soviet Russia's second attempt to 
reimpose its control over the Caucasus' vital northern gateway. 
Chechnya is the most volatile of Russia's six North Caucasus republics, the 
only one to have declared independence when the USSR broke up. The 19th 
century Russian General Mikhail Yermolev, who spent decades trying to crush 
Chechen resistance, called them "congenital rebels." 

In 20 months of brutal warfare after Russia's 1994 invasion, Chechen 
irregulars consistently outmaneuvered, outfought, and eventually drove out 
Moscow's armies. 

But having won de facto independence, the Chechens proved incapable of 
governing themselves. Chechnya's elected president, Aslan Maskhadov, failed 
to create a viable government, to address the republic's economic ruin, or to 
rein in restless and lawless local warlords. One of those warlords, Shamil 
Basayev, triggered Moscow's rage by launching two attacks on the neighboring 
republic of Dagestan last summer. 

For Russia, the stakes in Chechnya are huge. Average Russians appear angry 
and fed up after a decade of national decline. The war has been hugely 
popular, in part due to fears of terrorism after a series of apartment 
bombings over the summer killed 300 people in Russia. Moscow blames the 
attacks on Chechen insurgents. The Army felt humiliated and betrayed by its 
previous defeat in Chechnya, analysts say, and is eager this time for 
complete victory. Moscow is engaged in a vast game of chess with the West 
over the Caucasus and particularly the newly discovered Caspian oil fields. 
If Russia loses its grip on Chechnya, and vital mountain passes to the south, 
any hope of winning that game will evaporate. 

The West's hope that Russia is firmly on the road to democracy and open 
society has been badly shaken by the assault on Chechnya. Russian forces have 
bombarded Chechen towns, creating streams of refugees, and are now blasting 
the capital, Grozny, into rubble. 

There are disturbing reports that Russian troops massacred dozens of 
civilians two weeks ago in the town of Alkhan Yurt. Other reports say the 
Russians are using "aerosol bombs," which erupt in a fiery ball of gas, to 
target fighters in the southern mountains. 

Russian prosecutors, meanwhile, say they are investigating mass graves in 
Chechnya alleged to contain 1,000 people. Prosecutors believe the victims 
were ethnic Russians killed between 1991 and 1999. They have called on 
President Maskhadov to testify in the case. 

Though Moscow may hope for military success in the short run, it seems 
unlikely the Chechens will abandon their struggle anytime soon. Some basic 
questions on the conflict include: 

What does the Caucasus refer to? 

The Caucasus comprises three post-Soviet states and six autonomous Russian 
republics occupying the mountainous isthmus joining Russia and Turkey between 
the Black and Caspian Seas. The historic divide between Europe and Asia, the 
traits of both mix - often wildly - in the South Caucasus countries of 
Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia. The mainly Muslim North Caucasus includes 
the Russian provinces of Kabardino-Balkaria, Karacheyevo-Cherkessia, North 
Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan. 

What ethnic groups live there? 

The Caucasus is possibly the world's most complex ethnic mosaic, making the 
Balkans appear simple by comparison. More than 100 distinct groups, speaking 
dozens of languages and practicing several different religions, occupy 
traditional economic niches in the region's mountain slopes, broad valleys, 
and subtropical seacoasts. Dagestan alone has 32 ethnic groups and 14 
official languages. 

Who are the Chechens? 

The Chechens are an indigenous group of mountain herdsmen, farmers, and 
fighters who have lived in the North Caucasus for thousands of years. They 
speak a distinct Caucasic tongue, which is non-Slavic, non-Turkic, and 
non-Persian. Russian novelist Mikhail Lermontov wrote of the Chechens in 
1832: "Their god is freedom, their law is war." The last census in 1989 put 
their number at just over 1 million. 

Is Chechnya an independent country? 

Chechnya broke away from Russia in 1991. But the declaration went 
unrecognized by Moscow and the world community. In 1994 Russian forces 
invaded, but were forced to withdraw after two years of bloody warfare and an 
estimated 80,000 deaths. The cease-fire agreement ending the conflict left 
Chechnya's national status in limbo until 2001.
 
Why is Chechnya important to Russia? 

Moscow regards Chechnya as part of the Russian Federation; the 1993 
Constitution written by President Boris Yeltsin does not acknowledge the 
right of any territory to secede. The North Caucasus republics command 
mountain passes into the South Caucasus, where Russia is jockeying with the 
West for influence with those post-Soviet states and control over output of 
potentially vast Caspian oil fields. 

What are the prospects for peace? 

Russia appears to be staking all on military victory and has consistently 
ruled out talks with Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov or any international 
mediation. A pro-Moscow Chechen leader serving prison time for embezzlement, 
Bislan Gantamirov, was recently pardoned by President Yeltsin and sent to 
Chechnya, probably to head an eventual puppet government. Most analysts 
believe Russia can capture Chechnya's towns and cities, but doubt it can win 
an extended guerrilla war against Chechnya's highly-motivated and fast-moving 
irregular forces. 

What has life been like for ordinary Chechens? 

Chechnya was one of the poorest regions in the former Soviet Union, but 
isolation and lawlessness made things incomparably worse after the republic 
declared independence in 1991. The 1994-96 war devastated towns, ruined 
infrastructure, and killed thousands. The present war has cut off power, 
heat, and water to most towns and villages and led more than 200,000 people 
to flee to ill-supplied, makeshift refugee camps in neighboring Ingushetia. 
What is the international community doing? 

Western leaders have condemned Russia's battle tactics in harsh terms, but 
have taken few practical steps to rein in the Kremlin. On Dec. 28 the World 
Bank approved a $100-million loan to Moscow, signaling that business-as-usual 
is likely to prevail. 

A history of rebellion 

1722: Russian Czar Peter the Great annexes Dagestan, only to lose it in 
subsequent warfare with mountain tribes. 

Early 19th century: Russia fights for decades against an Islamic alliance led 
by Imam Shamil, a legendary Avar warrior from Dagestan. Chechens are the 
backbone of anti-Russian resistance, and the last to surrender in 1859. 
1944: Accusing Chechens of collaborating with invading Germans, Soviet leader 
Joseph Stalin deports the entire nation, along with their Ingush cousins, to 
Kazakhstan. Tens of thousands die. 

1957: Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev permits surviving exiles to return to 
their ancestral homes. 

Aug. 1991: Chechnya's Communist leadership supports an abortive coup in 
Moscow. They are overthrown, with Russian President Boris Yeltsin's blessing, 
by a local firebrand, former Soviet Air Force Gen. Dzhokhar Dudayev. 

October 1991: After winning a dubious election, Dudayev declares 
independence. 

December 1994: Russian troops invade Chechnya. Moscow succeeds in occupying 
all the republic's urban areas, but is unable to defeat guerrillas in the 
mountainous south. 

August 1996: The rebels re-take Grozny. Under the Khasavyurt Peace Accords, 
Russia withdraws from Chechnya and agrees to discuss its independence after 
five years. 

January 1997: Rebel military commander Aslan Maskhadov, a moderate 
nationalist, wins presidential elections. 

August-September 1999: Chechen militants led by warlord Shamil Basayev launch 
two invasions of neighboring Dagestan. Apartment bombings in Moscow and two 
other Russian cities kill some 300 people. The Kremlin blames Chechen 
extremists. 

Oct. 2, 1999: Russian forces invade Chechnya for the second time. 

Dec. 25, 1999: A full-scale assault on Grozny begins. 


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#7
Boston Globe 
31 December 1999 
[for personal use only] 
Russians mired in mud, slowed by rebel snipers 
Artillery, tanks counter Chechen gunmen 
By David Filipov
STARAYA SUNZHA, Russia - What does it take to blow up a building?
That was the problem facing Russian Colonel Yury Bukharin and his men on the 
front lines of the battle for Grozny, capital of the breakaway region of 
Chechnya.

Over a two-hour period Wednesday, Chechen rebel snipers in the nine-story 
apartment building on Grozny's northeast outskirts had already killed one of 
Bukharin's men and wounded four, halting his unit's effort to push further 
toward the center of the city.

A few hundred yards from the snipers, Bukharin barked orders over his 
walkie-talkie from his makeshift headquarters in a ruined house in the Grozny 
suburb of Staraya Sunzha.

Moments later, the big Russian guns in a field behind the village opened 
fire. A Russian T-80 tank rumbled down a lane strewn with wreckage and fired 
a salvo at the building. Heavy machine guns and mortar let loose in every 
direction. The nine-story building still stood. Then came the response - the 
deceptively harmless-sounding pop-pop-pop of a sniper's rifle.

The exchange epitomized the difficulty of Russia's weeklong assault on 
Grozny, the rebels' largest remaining stronghold in the flatlands that make 
up two-thirds of Chechnya. Russian commanders once said they would capture 
the city by New Year's, but no one is saying that now. 

The Russian tactic of shelling Grozny's fortified buildings and sending in 
lightly armed infantry to mop up is designed to limit Russian casualties and 
slowly decimate the insurgents. But it is arduously slow, costly, and hard 
work.

''They said it would be easy, that we'd go in, and if we met any resistance, 
we'd go back out, and the artillery would take care of it, but it's not like 
that,'' a Russian police commando said to an infantry officer.

''We fired 250 rounds yesterday, and 60 so far today,'' replied the officer. 
''I don't know what else to tell you.''

''What does it take to take out a nine-story building?'' asked the commando. 
His unit was ordered to go back into the city and creep around, looking for 
rebels. He and about 20 other men put on their helmets, scrambled onto an 
armored troop carrier, and sped off.

Before they left, Denis Parshin, an officer in a commando unit from Murmansk, 
scrawled out a note to pass on to his parents: ''I'm alive, I'm well, and I'm 
storming Grozny. Happy New Year.''

The Russians captured Staraya Sunzha on Christmas day, in fighting that 
turned entire blocks of houses into hollow ruins. The streets are rivers of 
mud, trees have been cut and razed by shells and bullets. Villagers cut up 
the remaining trees for firewood. There is no heat, light, or gas.

The Russian guns here fire almost constantly, even though many of the 
estimated 40,000 civilians in Grozny are trapped in the northern outskirts.
''The rebels are not letting civilians out; we are waiting for the 
civilians,'' said a deputy commander of a pro-Russian Chechen militia who 
would only give his first name, Mayerbeck.

Armored personnel carriers with soldiers in battle gear roared up and down 
war-ruined lanes. The militiamen rushed across open streets, firing rounds 
toward the high buildings of Grozny to distract snipers. A few others led a 
cow out of a courtyard toward the Russian headquarters. A few Chechen 
villagers started to complain about their treatment at the hands of the 
Russians, but a few words from Bukharin quieted them down.
''This is all a big spectacle,'' said one woman.

Bukharin offered some guests hard candy and soldiers' rations of oatmeal and 
canned meat. In the adjoining room, Chechens suspected of being rebel 
fighters stood against the wall, their hands and legs spread out.
Bukharin's men are confident they will eventually overwhelm their 
adversaries, but they are concerned the Chechen rebels are going to try to 
break out. 

''These Santa Clauses are going to try to fly tonight,'' he said with a grim 
smile, pausing to order another salvo on his walkie-talkie.

Outside, Russian soldiers milled around the muddy ruins with pro-Russian 
Chechen militia, wearing white armbands to distinguish themselves from the 
rebels. Bukharin repeated the official line that the loyalist Chechens have 
been useful allies for their knowledge of the area, but it is clear the 
Russians and the loyalists do not fully trust one another. 

Bukharin would not even speak to Mayerbeck, despite their nominally equal 
rank. At one point, a Russian and a loyalist Chechen, both armed to the 
teeth, got in a shoving match.

''Don't you push me,'' said the Chechen. ''We have to work together.''
''You have your work, and we have ours,'' snapped the Russian. 
The center of Russia's campaign is in Grozny, and the soldiers were tense 
along the road leading into the capital from the northwest, territory 
captured at the beginning of the conflict in October.

''We get shot at every night,'' said Alexander, a riot police officer from 
Vladivostok who was manning a checkpoint on the road leading from the Chechen 
town of Znamenskaya into Grozny. Here, some soldiers were replacing phone 
lines wrecked during the fighting. Others were digging trenches. The rebels, 
the soldiers said, sneak across Russian territory and launch hit-and-run 
attacks.

''We should just drop a few hydrogen bombs on the place and be done with 
this,'' Alexander said. ''Otherwise, this war will go on forever.''
But his and other police patrols waved journalists through. In the towns 
along the way were rows of fresh graves. There were more than 40 in 
Goragorsky, just over Chechnya's western frontier, the site of a fierce 
two-day battle in October.

At the town of Tolstoy-Yurt, behind the low ridge that runs just north of 
Grozny, the Russian artillery barrage was intense. At one point, journalists 
counted 60 rounds fired in a minute.

At a small street market, vendors sold special New Year's cakes with 
Christmas tree designs on the icing.

Convoys of armored vehicles rumbled along the Grozny road. Trucks full of men 
and supplies made their way toward the fighting; trucks with their canvas 
flaps closed tight rumbled out. The passage of many tanks has ruined the 
pavement and strewn clay and mud along the road, making the driving 
treacherous. A large Russian military truck lay on its side; its driver had 
apparently lost control in the muck.

The Russian forward positions start at the checkpoint outside Staraya Sunzha. 
Two young draftees stopped a car and asked for food. One of them greedily 
grabbed a pack of cigarettes. 

''We are standing here in a ring around the city, waiting for the order to go 
in,'' said Vladimir, a soldier from Novorossiisk who has been fighting the 
rebels since they invaded the neighboring Russian region of Dagestan in 
August.

Vladimir, who also fought in Russia's 1994-1996 war in Chechnya, has signed a 
contract to fight through February. He makes decent pay for Russia - $120 per 
month plus $30 for each day spent in the battle zone - but Vladimir is not 
happy about it.

''I want out of here now,'' he said. ''But we're spending New Year's in the 
trenches.''

A mortar round went off nearby. The pro-Russian Chechens agreed to escort a 
group of journalists into Staraya Sunzha, but only to the front line in the 
village center. The Russian forces still do not fully control the area.
''This place is not safe,'' said a Russian police officer who gave his name 
as Sergei. He said the rebel fighters were mostly not Chechens, but 
mercenaries from other countries. Every Russian officer tells this story, and 
the list of nationalities gets longer at each checkpoint.

''We're fighting Turks, Poles, Balts, Arabs, Ukrainian women snipers with 
small caliber rifles, Scots in kilts, blacks from Africa, scared 16-year-old 
boys, what have you,'' Colonel Bukharin said with a big smile. He told his 
troops to guard against possible breakouts by the rebels.

Outside headquarters, a Russian soldier in battle gear called his mother on a 
journalist's satellite phone and told her he was all right. He hung up and 
grabbed his assault rifle and moved off to join the other men going off 
towards the city.

''That's that, now I'm off to fight,'' he said, and then he was gone.



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#8
RIA Novosti - Moscow Diary 
December 29, 1999 
WHY DOES NOT PEACE IN CHECHNYA SUIT USA? 
By Valentin KUNIN, RIA Novosti 
All attempts by the US Administration to persuade the 
Russian leadership into backing out from the military 
operation in Chechnya have proved futile. Hoping for a changed 
Kremlin position on Chechen settlement after Duma elections, 
Washington dispatched Under-Secretary of State Strobe Talbott 
to sound out the post-poll situation only to see that the 
moods were the same. The elections displayed powerful support 
by Russian voters for pro-government policies in the North 
Caucasus. This adds to the prospect of bringing the Chechnya 
problem to its logical end, that is to eliminate all terrorist 
enclaves in the republic and to create facilities for 
rehabilitation. 

The White House is nevertheless tireless in chanting its 
hackneyed statements of being "extremely concerned over the 
federal troops' activities in Chechnya," dubbing them as 
inadmissible, urging an end to the armed hostilities and 
dialogue with the Chechen "political leaders". Moscow does not 
comply. As a result Washington has threatened the Kremlin with 
more pressure and subsequent economic sanctions. 

The latter, incidentally, is on the way. On direct 
instructions from the US Secretary of State, Madeleine 
Albright, the Export and Import bank has denied a commercial 
loan to the Tyumen Oil company under doubtful excuses that 
this refusal answers US interests and promotes US policies 
toward Russia. 

This pressure however has no prospect of being fruitful. 
No state will keep the benevolent eye on a criminal enclave on 
its territory, with its leaders making no secret of their 
separatist intentions--withdrawal from Russia and proclamation 
of independence. So, why is Russia being now bombarded with 
the demands to stop fighting for its territorial integrity and 
national security. 

In addition, the Western position does look paradoxical. 
While admitting that Chechnya has been occupied by terrorists 
being linked with Usama bin Laden, Washington is urging an end 
to any fighting against them. Should one figure out that the 
American Administration is completely ignorant of the axiom 
that professional killers, kidnappers, arms traffickers and 
drug dealers cannot be negotiated with? Would the US federal 
authorities or West European governments ever put up with such 
a situation on their territories? 

Russia's stand in Chechnya's crisis has a far-reaching 
implication: either this country will accept America-imposed 
rules of the game and agree to the role of a second-rate state 
one can speak with from the position of strength and interfere 
in its internal affairs, or Russia will make it clear that it 
remains a great power despite all current economic hardships. 
Moscow stands for the latter. 

As to the United States, it is guided not only by the 
ambition of being the only great power on the world scene. The 
continued tensions and instability in the North Caucasus fully 
corresponds to its plans in Transcaucasia and the Caspian Sea 
referred to by the United States several years ago as a zone 
of its vital interests. 

Washington does not even conceal its ultimate purpose of 
ousting Russian influence from the region and establishing its 
full control over Caspian oil and gas transportation routes. 
Commenting on the Istanbul-signed agreement between 
Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey on the transit of Caspian oil 
via the East-Western corridor, US Secretary of Energy Bill 
Richardson called it a great victory of US foreign policy. 
This "great victory" has become possible largely due to 
Chechen terrorists who have sapped oil transportation across 
Russia's territory, from Baku to Novorossiisk. 

Russia does not want any other surprises of this kind in 
its southern frontiers. This calls above all for the uprooting 
of breeding grounds of international terrorism in Chechnya and 
stabilising the situation in the North Caucasus.



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#9
Russia: Grandfather Frost Dispute Roils New Year 
By Sophie Lambroschini
This year, as Russia celebrates the 300th anniversary of Peter the Great's 
initiative to align the Russian New Year with the West's, a squabble is 
spoiling the spirit of the season. RFE/RL Moscow correspondent Sophie 
Lambroschini reports that two Ded Moroz (Grandfather Frost), both claiming an 
exclusive right to the name, are souring the festivities.

Moscow, 30 December 1999 (RFE/RL) -- Is the real Ded Moroz from Arkhangelsk 
or from Veliky Ustyug? Since Grandfather Frost returned from his Soviet exile 
in Lapland, two towns are claiming to be Ded Moroz's homeland. The northern 
city of Arkhangelsk boasts an Arctic geography and direct flights to 
Rovaniemi, in Finland, home to Ded Moroz's Western counterpart, Santa Claus. 
Laid-back Veliky Ustyug, a big village where two-thirds of the population 
still live without any running water, says its deep dark forests are the 
ideal hide-out for the mysterious bearded man. 

In Soviet times, the Russian Santa Claus -- who unlike his Western Christmas 
counterpart gives presents at New Year's -- used to be a worn out actor in a 
drab red coat whose services workers' unions could rent for their party along 
with a cleaning lady. But as New Years is becoming more and more of a 
commercial affair in Russia, Ded Moroz is being exploited as a juicy source 
of money. 

Arkhangelsk was Ded Moroz' first post-Soviet home, claims Andrei 
Tymashkevich, head of the "Ded Moroz" stock company. Back in 1991, taking 
market reforms in hand, Tymashkevich quickly registered Ded Moroz's name and 
address as a trademark in the Arkhangelsk registration office. 
But a local Arkhangelsk journalist, Vladimir Anufriev, tells RFE/RL that Ded 
Moroz's activities were limited to a seasonal venture and therefore didn't 
bring in enough profit to compete with a competing initiative from Moscow. 
"Because times were so [hard], Perestroika, the end of the eighties then the 
[difficult] beginning of the nineties, the financial situation was 
unfavorable to really promote the [Ded Moroz] idea on a national level. So 
the company was only active towards the year's end -- answering mail, giving 
out presents, organizing parties." 

Two years ago, Russia's second official Santa Claus made a come-back in 
Veliky Ustyug. Though the town is a twenty-hour train ride from Moscow, the 
capital's Mayor Yury Luzhkov decided with the local governor of Vologda to 
revive laid back Veliky Ustyug's economy by patenting it as Ded Moroz's true 
hometown. Mixing populism and profit in his usual bustly way, Luzhkov helped 
launch the project. 

The former "Druzhba" sanatorium has been turned into Ded Moroz's new home -- 
a big two-story izba with traditional lace-like carvings framing the windows. 
Four rooms -- called Winter, Spring, Summer, and Fall -- will make it 
possible for Santa to invite his guests all year round. There is also a 
restaurant, billiard room, sauna, and souvenir shop. A theme park, hotels, 
ice cream parlors, a new road, a gas station, and a camping ground are 
planned. 

Dmitri Nazarov, an actor from Vologda who plays the Veliky Ustyug Ded Moroz, 
is two meters tall and wears size 47 shoes. He was given a popularity boost 
thanks to Moscow's promotion. Every year Nazarov is personally greeted by 
Luzhkov at the opening of a series of children's New Years parties financed 
by Moscow's municipal budget. 

The Arkhangelsk Santa Claus, Tymashkevich, decries his Vologda counterpart as 
an impostor. Tymashkevich argues that since Ded Moroz received his first 
Russian "propiska", the registration stamp inherited from Soviet bureaucracy, 
in Arkhangelsk, that makes it his only home. Also, he says Ded Moroz proved 
his lawful place of residence by dutifully answering thousands of children's 
letters addressed to Arkhangelsk for seven years. 

Tymashkevich says Veliky Ustyug is resorting to wrongful competition by using 
a local governor's and Luzhkov's administrative levers. The Moscow City 
Council allegedly sent out letters into all the regions, promoting the Veliky 
Ustyug Santa Claus. 

Arkhangelsk journalist Anufriev asks "what else can Russia's poor North hope 
to make money from if not from Grandfather Frost?" He also warns that a new 
party to the dispute may be lurking. Anufriev says he has heard that there's 
another registered Grandfather Frost in Murmansk who also claims to be the 
real one. 


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