#1
Christian Science Monitor
27 August 1999
Why Russians keep dollars under beds
President Boris Yeltsin linked to latest allegations of financial 
impropriety. 
By Fred Weir, Special to The Christian Science Monitor


The Kremlin is busy issuing denials after allegations surfaced implicating 
President Boris Yeltsin in the latest in a string of financial scandals to 
hit Russia. 


The claims that an Italian company with a Kremlin contract paid more than $1 
million to cover expenses for Mr. Yeltsin and his daughters during a 1994 
trip to Hungary appeared Wednesday in Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera. 
It's the first time the president has been directly linked to allegations of 
financial impropriety. 


As Russia heads into a period of elections and political transition, the 
emerging appearance is one of a government, and business sector, preoccupied 
with skimming funds or moving money offshore. According to some reports, even 
money lent to Russia by the International Monetary Fund may have been 
spirited out of the country. 


In a separate case, unnamed FBI sources say $15 billion in cash thought to be 
connected to Russian organized crime figures many have passed through two New 
York banks, according to USA Today. 


Prosecutors in Geneva recently confirmed they are examining the Swiss bank 
accounts of 24 past and present Kremlin officials on suspicion of 
money-laundering. Last week, the Swiss froze a $67 million account owned by 
Boris Berezovsky, one of Russia's richest men and a reputed personal 
financial adviser to the Yeltsin family. 


But Russian experts say that's just a tiny drop in the nonstop cascade of 
capital that has poured from post-Soviet Russia. 


"What we hear about is probably just the tip of the iceberg," says Yuri 
Pavlov, an expert with the independent Russian-European Center for Economic 
Policy. 


The best estimates available suggest an average of $2 billion has left Russia 
every month since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. And the problem may 
be accelerating. A joint Canadian-Russian study concluded last year that the 
outflow has been greater than the combined capital flight from Brazil, 
Venezuela, Mexico, and Peru during the turbulent 1980s. 


"While capital movements are very common the world over, Russia has 
experienced an abnormal, even cataclysmic, loss of vital resources," says 
Leonid Abalkin, director of the Institute of Economics in Moscow and one of 
the report's authors. 


Russian criminals and politicians moving money through Western banks are part 
of the story. 


But with these examples before them, it is hardly surprising that legitimate 
companies and even ordinary Russians are frantic to get their money out of 
the sagging ruble, and out of the country altogether. 


Experts say many Russian companies routinely use "false contracts" to get 
around the country's superficially strict currency controls. For example, a 
company might obtain a license to export raw materials, but sell them at 
below cost to an offshore subsidiary - which retains the excessive profits. 
Or it might obtain legal permission to transfer money abroad as payment for 
fictitious imports. 


"False contracts probably account for 80 percent of all capital flight," says 
Yevgeny Wittenburg, President of Intelbridge, a financial consulting firm in 
Moscow. "This is considered a normal part of doing business." 


AT THE root of the problem is Russia's failure to create a stable climate for 
business, large or small. 


"People worry about the risk and do not trust anything the government tells 
them," says Mr. Pavlov. "Corruption is rampant on all levels. There are no 
effective laws to protect property or the rights of investors. The political 
situation is one of constant upheaval. Why would people trust enough to 
invest their money here?" 


A related problem is what some analysts call "internal capital flight," the 
tendency of average Russians to trade rubles for dollars as fast as they can. 
Economists estimate there may be as much as $40 billion stuffed in 
mattresses, hidden under floorboards, and buried in kitchen gardens across 
Russia. 


"It's a real vote of no confidence in the Russian economy," says Pavlov. 


The result is a crippling net outflow of resources from Russia. "Capital 
investment, from outside and inside the country, is at a low ebb," says 
Natalia Smorodinskaya, an expert on capital flight with the Institute of 
Economics in Moscow. "That translates into crumbling infrastructure, low 
business activity, and mass poverty. Those are all the things we see around 
us today. If we could reverse the flow and get investment coming back we 
would start to reverse all those things too." 


SHORT of making Russia a prosperous, well-governed, and investor- friendly 
country, experts say there are steps that could reduce the outflow. These 
include more state control on import-export operations, a tax on cash 
transfers abroad, more international cooperation to report movements of large 
sums of money, and an amnesty from prosecution for Russians who voluntarily 
repatriate their capital. 


Vyacheslav Senchagov, director of the independent Center of Financial and 
Banking Research in Moscow, says projections for capital flight in 1999 are 
hard to make, in part because Russia's crisis-hit banking system barely 
functions. "But I think it's safe to say it's speeding up. There is a frenzy 
to get money out of the country." 


Any hopes that political stability will return to Russia must await the 
outcome of parliamentary elections in December and the crucial presidential 
contest next June. 


The strongest current contender to win both elections is a centrist coalition 
led by former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov, whose economic views are known 
to be generally state-centered and protectionist. Allied with him is the 
powerful mayor of Moscow, Yuri Luzhkov, who is famous for his interference in 
the city's businesses. 


Arrayed against them are the Communist Party, an as-yet unformed pro-Kremlin 
coalition, and Yabloko, the lone liberal party still standing on Russia's 
turbulent political stage. Opinion polls presently show Yabloko with less 
than 10 percent of the vote. 


"There are measures that could stem capital flight and bolster confidence, 
but they could only be enacted by a government of clean-handed reformers," 
says Dimitri Golubkov, head analyst at Center-Invest, a Moscow consultancy. 
"The prospects for getting such a government don't look good." 

The Russian army has finally managed to free Tando and several other mountain 
Dagestani villages that were occupied by Chechen-led rebels earlier this 
month. It took more than two weeks of constant bombardments and heavy 
fighting before the Russians managed to dislodge the rebels. The village of 
Tando was reduced to rubble by Russian bombs as it was "liberated." 


After the fighting subsided, the Defense Ministry proclaimed victory. The 
Russian commander of the combined forces fighting the rebels in Dagestan, 
Viktor Kazantsev, told journalists that 1,000 rebels were killed. Earlier the 
Russian military reported that more than 1,000 rebels were wounded. 


If the official Russian casualty figures are true, there was hardly a rebel 
left standing. The Russian military,. in fact, says that only a handful of 
rebels f no more than 300 f managed to skim through the Russian blockade back 
into Chechnya. 


However, the official Russian body count is deceptive. It seems the Russian 
military has learned some lessons from the recent war in the Balkans, when 
NATO officials reported more Yugoslav MiG-29 fighters destroyed than the 
Serbian air force actually had. 


In fact there was no genuine body count made after the fighting in Dagestan. 
The military authorities simply assumed that the rebels removed most of the 
bodies. But how could the presumed 300 surviving rebels carry away thousands 
of dead and dying comrades, especially when the Russian authorities say they 
blocked the route into Chechnya? 


The Russian official claim of victory in Dagestan sounds hollow. When true 
victory happens f when an enemy infantry force is effectively smashed f then 
many prisoners are taken, enemy officers are captured and so on. That's not 
the case this time in Dagestan. Apparently the Chechen account of the recent 
fighting f that the rebels withdrew in an organized fashion before the final 
Russian assault f is more realistic than the story the Defense Ministry is 
telling. 


During the fighting in Dagestan, the rebels, led by the Chechen warlord 
Shamil Basayev, have proven that they can face the regular Russian army in 
battle. As during the war in Chechnya in 1994-96, the military deployed heavy 
guns and used air power extensively. But the coordination of infantry action 
with firepower was as ineffective in Dagestan as during the Chechen campaign. 


Basayev's Chechen war veterans know how to dig in and avoid heavy casualties 
from bombardments. The military reports that even though Tando was razed to 
the ground, rebel dugouts survived intact. Russian infantry assaults several 
times ran into enemy opposition that could have been suppressed if the 
bombardments were better coordinated. As a result Russian forces have, 
according to official reports, suffered heavy casualties: 59 dead and 210 
wounded. 


The covert rebel withdrawal caught the Russian generals as unaware as did the 
initial rebel incursion. Russian guns and bombs were apparently pounding 
rebel strongholds long after the rebels had left. The Russian brass seemed to 
never know for sure where the enemy was, or what were his intentions, 
equipment, numbers, organization and so on. 


When the conflict began, Interior Ministry police units were sent to deal 
with the rebels f as if this was indeed an assault by some "bandits." An 
Interior Ministry general, Vyacheslav Ovchinnikov, was appointed chief 
commander. After a week it turned out that this was not exactly a police 
matter. 


Kazantsev, an army general, replaced Ovchinnikov and army units were rushed 
to the front. But Basayev had the military initiative from beginning to end. 


Basayev's plan to oust the Russians from Dagestan seems clear: To infiltrate 
here and there, provoking the Russian military to "liberate" region after 
region with bombs and artillery. 


The depleted Russian army does not have any battle-ready crack infantry units 
that can confront Basayev's veterans man-to-man. Without heavy guns, Russian 
soldiers are lost. In future engagements in Dagestan, the military will 
hardly do better than in Tando. At present most Dagestanis do not want 
Chechen warlords to take over their country and are backing federal troops. 
As more towns are "liberated," their attitude may begin to change. 


Basayev obviously hopes that Russia will, as it threatened, bomb "terrorist 
bases" in Chechnya. Such raids can provoke an all-out war in the Caucasus, 
which Basayev and other Chechen warlords expect to win because they know how 
weak Russia is militarily. 

#4
From
The Center for Defense Information
The Weekly Defense Monitor
VOLUME 3, ISSUE #33 August 26, 1999


Demystifying The Role of Islam in The Former Soviet South.
Islam has long dominated the lives of people in the Caucasus and Central
Asia. But recent conflicts and economic decline resulted in religious
radicalization.
By Tomas Valasek, Research Analyst, tvalasek@cdi.org


The sudden outbreak of fighting in Dagestan in Russia's south revived
fears in Moscow and elsewhere of the Caucasus and Central Asia succumbing
to radical Islam. Violence broke out in four different countries this
month. In Dagestan, a republic of the Russian Federation, Chechen troops
fighting for the reunification of Chechnya and Dagestan under an Islamic
banner briefly occupied several villages. In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are battling Islamic groups lodged in the
mountainous region where the borders of the three republics converge. The
gunmen took a number of people hostage in Kyrgyzstan, embarrassing its
government which had been hosting a regional summit with the presidents of
Russia and China.


While the nature of the current crises differ from country to country, they
appear to share the same root causes -- collapse of states and state
authorities, poverty, and outside pressure towards religious radicalization.


Dagestan's crisis bears all the above marks. Most of the population in the
Caucasus region has historically been Muslim, dominated by the Sufi order.
This particular order blended original pre-Muslim traditions with Islamic
customs; an aberration only strengthened through decades of isolation from
the rest of the Muslim world during the Soviet rule. Nevertheless,
Caucasus-watchers agree, religion served to strengthen the ethnic groups'
identity during years of Russification. In the case of Chechnya, Islam
provided spiritual support to fighters facing militarily superior (at
least on paper) Russian forces during the 1994-96 conflict. Sufi Islam
became closely intertwined with nationalism and with the existing social
structure in most north Caucasus republics.


But the nature of religious beliefs in the region has been changing
recently. The opening of the borders in early 1990s enabled Arab
missionaries preaching a more radical form of Islam to begin work in the
former USSR. Russian and local government officials usually label the
missionaries as 'Wahabis,' after an Arab Islamic order originating in the
18th century. In a strict sense, Wahabis are followers of a teaching that
strive to purify Islamic belief and rituals. Wahabi missionaries in the
Caucasus are openly hostile to the traditional Sufi Islam of the region,
which is permeated by pre-Muslim traditions.


Anatol Lieven, author of a book on Chechnya and a reporter during the
Russo-Chechen war notes, "The 'Wahabis' in the North Caucasus used to
number a few, with minimal influence; but religious radicalization
produced by the war, the arrival of former Arab Mujahedin who had
served in Afghanistan and, above all, Arab money, have since made a
strong impact."


The term "Wahabism" has been overused and abused by government
officials and the media -- there is no indication, for example, that the
Chechen commander Shamil Basaysev who led the Dagestan revolt is a Wahabi.
But regardless of the banner, radical Islam is making inroads in the
former Soviet South, The region houses countless veterans of the Chechen,
Abhkaz or Afghan conflicts, who possess few skills beyond warfighting and
few other career options in these impoverished regions. Islam provides the
cause to sustain their fight -- and more fighting produces more generations
of people uprooted from their homes and professions. The categorical moral
purity of the Islamic message also appeals to those disillusioned with the
corruption and poverty plaguing the former Soviet republics.


In the case of Dagestan, Russian influence has kept the country relatively
stable and slowed the process of religious radicalization. The population
of Dagestan consists of over 30 ethnic groups with competing claims on each
other's territories. Subsidies from Moscow and Russian political tutelage
helps keep Dagestan from disintegrating. The use of the Russian language
and a complicated system of power-sharing have kept the republic together
so far, just as belonging to the Russian Federation gives Dagestanis a
sense of unity which the country would normally lack. Consequently,
Chechen troops trying the separate Dagestan from Russian and create a
common state with Chechnya found little support among Dagestanis.


But Russian subsidies have dropped off and its and influence has waned
considerably recently, partly because of Russia's political and financial
difficulties and partly through the growing influence of Islam. Should
Dagestan separate or fall apart, it would likely descend into inter-ethnic
fighting, furthering the poverty and religious radicalization of the
region. The real danger to the republic is not a band of Islamic fighters
from Chechnya but its own internal fractures and a crippling social
situation.

#6
Nuclear Centre Marks 50th Anniversary of First A-Bomb Test.

SAROV, Nizhni Novgorod Region, August 26 (Itar-Tass) - The Sarov federal 
nuclear centre (former Arzamas-16) marks on Thursday the 50th anniversary 
since the first test of the Russian A-bomb at the Semipalatinsk proving 
ground. It was developed by researchers of the All-Russian Nuclear Physics 
Institute in this closed city. 

First deputy head of the Sarov administration Vladimir Yunakov said that a 
meeting with the participation of speaker of the State Duma (lower house) 
Gennady Seleznyov, Russian and foreign scientists will be held on the 
occasion of this anniversary. 

Americans were the first to test nuclear weapons and on people at that, 
dropping bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 
1945. Those blasts entailed huge destruction and human casualties. The Soviet 
Union caught up with Americans four years later in that feverish race and 
then even outstripped them by testing a thermonuclear bomb at the Novaya 
Zemlya proving ground in 1953. 

The Sarov military facility was set up in 1946 by a decision of the Soviet 
government as "a think tank" to create a nuclear shield of the country. It 
was housed in the former Sarov monastery, in honour of which Arzamas-16 was 
renamed Sarov in 1995. 

The institute employed the best physicists and engineers who made the first 
atomic bomb in an matter of three years. They included members of the Soviet 
Academy of Sciences Yuly Khariton, Andrei Sakharov and Yakov Zeldovich. The 
very fact of the center's operation and its whereabouts were a top state 
secret until spy satellites appeared. The regime of secrecy is now preserved 
only for works to create weapons of a new generation. 

One of the most secret places in Sarov is a museum-warehouse where all 
samples of nuclear weapons, made by Russian specialists between 1949 and this 
time, are kept in a single version. No visitors can get there: the arsenal 
has both historic and defence importance. 

An exception was made only once: the warehouse which has a dual protection 
system, was visited by President Boris Yeltsin in 1992 where he signed a 
decree on granting the status of the Federal Nuclear Centre to the 
All-Russian Experimental Physics Institute. 

#7
Yeltsin Sends Message of Greeting to Atomic Bomb Builders.


MOSCOW, August 26 (Itar-Tass) - President Boris Yeltsin has sent a message of 
greeting to the builders and testers of the first Soviet atomic bomb. The 
message, whose text was received by Itar-Tass on Thursday from the 
president's press service, says that "half a century ago the selfless work of 
scientists, engineers, workers and military men created a strong foundation 
for Russia's nuclear shield." 


"The extremely complicated scientific and technical problem -- the putting to 
use of atomic energy -- was resolved in difficult conditions and within a 
short period of time. That was an event of historic significance, which 
played an extremely important role in maintaining durable peace on the 
planet." 


"At present the nuclear arms complex continues to work effectively, remaining 
a reliable guarantor of the country's security."

#8
Minister: Russia to Continue Modernizing Nuclear Arms

MOSCOW (Aug. 26) XINHUA - Russia will continue to modernize nuclear weapons, 
Deputy Minister for Atomic Energy Lev Ryabev said Thursday. 

Attending a special meeting on the 50th anniversary of the first Soviet 
nuclear test at the Russian Federal Nuclear Center in Sarov, Nizhny Novgorod 
region, Ryabev said the modernization drive aims to improve the weapons' 
safety, to extend the service life of the existing nuclear arsenal and to 
maintain its research and development potential through laboratory 
simulation. 

Another goal is arms modernization in conditions of advancing anti-missile 
defenses, the Interfax news agency quoted him as saying. 

Ryabev also named as the main objective for today the development of a 
compact nuclear system. 

He said that in the process of disarmament, Russia has slashed more than 90 
percent of the production of its nuclear arms. Under plans extending to 2005, 
the industry staff should be reduced from 75,000 to 35,000 and the number of 
facilities making nuclear weapons from four to two. 

Meanwhile, despite its limited financial resources, Russia is doing its 
utmost to maintain its nuclear potential at due standards. 

The remaining weapons are not inferior to the ones "held by the strongest 
owners of nuclear arms," he said. 

#9
Stratfor Commentary
www.stratfor.com
August 26, 1999
New Alliances Emerge in the Duma Elections

Recent political mergers in Russia have produced two alliances that stand 
improved chances of earning seats in December’s parliamentary election. The 
nearly invisible campaign of the Yabloko Party has been boosted and the Union 
of Rightist Forces is growing as reformists swim upstream against the 
disaster of reform.


A new right-wing coalition formed on August 24. The Union of Rightist Forces 
is an alliance cobbled out of Boris Nemtsov’s Right Cause, Irina Khakamada’s 
Common Cause and Sergei Kiriyenko’s New Power party. Voice of Russia, led by 
Konstantin Titov, is also expected to join the Kiriyenko-led party.


Former Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin threw in with the liberal Yabloko 
party on August 25, after considering alternatives. Though discarded by 
Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Stepashin will expand the visibility of the 
party. His name will add a hint of familiarity to a campaign that has been 
nearly invisible to most Russians, though led by a popular figure, Grigory 
Yavlinsky. Stepashin is also running for a constituency seat in St. 
Petersburg.


Led by former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, 
the Fatherland-All Russia alliance is the most powerful of the alliances 
emerging. Primakov will seek the presidency as Luzhkov positions himself for 
a potential prime minister role. Primakov is the most popular politician in 
Russia; Luzhkov is the fourth most popular, according to recent opinion polls.


On the left, Gennady Zyuganov’s Communist Party appears to be withstanding a 
challenge from the Communist-Workers of Russia for the Soviet Union, which 
split and registered as its own party on August 25.

#10
Security: Muted Response to RUSSIA'S Call for Multi-Polar World
InterPress Service


MOSCOW, (Aug. 26) IPS - The Kremlin has been keen to forge new alliances in 
Asia to counterbalance U.S. global influence, but Moscow's calls to create a 
"multi-polar" world have been getting somewhat muted responses so far. 


This despite Russian President Boris Yeltsin's repeated calls -- mostly 
recently at yesterday's summit with Chinese President Jiang Zemin at the 
Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek -- for Moscow and Beijing to jointly oppose the 
emergence of a unipolar world dominated by the west. 


Still, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told Russian television on Aug. 
25: "Russia, China and other nations advocate a multi-polar world, a world in 
which the interests of all nations -- great, medium or small -- are taken 
into account". 


The multi-polar world concept could be instrumental in guaranteeing global 
stability in a longer term, he added. 


On his third trip abroad this year to meet Jiang, Yeltsin met Jiang in 
Bishkek ahead of a summit with three Central Asian states, in what is called 
the Shanghai Five regional alliance, on security matters and trade. 


In Bishkek five leaders -- including Yeltsin, Jiang, Kyrgyz President Askar 
Akayev, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, and Tajik President Emomali 
Rakhmonov -- inked the Bishkek joint declaration, advocating a "multi-polar" 
world and claiming that their forum is not directed against other states. 


At one point, Yeltsin lashed out at "attempts of some states" to build up a 
world order convenient "for them only" and said he was ready to fight with 
"Westerners". 


Ivanov had to clarify Yeltsin's vague statement, arguing it needed to be 
perceived "in the context of countermeasures against building up unipolar 
world". 


However, as usual, Moscow managed to get only a cautious response from 
Beijing, as Chinese leader Jiang Zemin reportedly just advocated "universally 
accepted norms of international relations". 


The Russian government's efforts to build a closer alliance with China to 
forge a "multi-polar" world as a counterbalance to U.S. might comes at a time 
when Russia's global influence is seen as waning. 


For instance, its global role is hitting rock bottom and the North Atlantic 
Treaty Organization (NATO) is expanding into eastern Europe, which used to be 
sphere of influence. 


Former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov also once said that he favored 
a strategic triangle involving China, Russia and India, to ensure regional 
geopolitical stability. 


But China dismissed Primakov's idea of strategic triangle, though Beijing 
earlier had criticized NATO's expansion into eastern Europe, warning it could 
only undermine regional and global stability. 


"It is an old idea in Moscow of a sort of China, Russia and India axis," Oleg 
Ostroukhov, senior researcher of the Institute of World Economy and 
International Relations, Moscow-based think-tank, said in interview. 


"However, the idea of strategic triangle is obviously unrealistic due to 
friction between Beijing and New Delhi," he said. 


Moscow's insistence on building up a "multi-polar world" is seen as an 
attempt to reassert Russia's global role. But against the backdrop of 
miserable domestic economic circumstances, the truth is that crisis-hit and 
aid-dependent Russia can hardly afford an anti-Western stance. 


The Bishkek summit was also about discussing common interests with the 
Central Asian states, given security concerns that both Beijing and Moscow 
have been worried about. 


"Central Asia is a region of utmost importance for Russia as civil wars in 
Afghanistan and Tajikistan have turned into a global hotspot of extremism and 
terrorism," argues Vladimir Lukin, chairman of foreign affairs committee of 
the State Duma, the lower house of Russian parliament. 


"For Moscow, Asian security is no less important than European security," 
said Lukin, former Russian ambassador to Washington. 


At the Shanghai Five summit in Kazakhstan last year, the five nations agreed 
to cooperate in combating ethnic or religious separatism. 


China has been primarily concerned about independence demands by some 
Uighurs, a largely Muslim ethnic minority in north-western China. 


The issue is even more important for Russia, which still faces challenge from 
its rebellious region of Chechnya. Earlier this month the Chechen-led rebels 
fought the federal troops in neighboring Daghestan. 


"Both Russia and China have strategic interests in Central Asia, notably to 
combat Muslim extremism," argues Alexey Mitrofanov, chairman of geopolicy 
committee of the State Duma. 


Jiang reportedly supported the idea of turning Shanghai Five into a sort of 
regional economic bloc, and called for a united stand against international 
terrorism and nationalist separatism. 


Yeltsin also supported the initiative of Central Asian states to set up a 
nuclear weapons free zone in this region. 


In April 1996 the leaders of China, Russia, and three Central Asian nations 
met in Shanghai and agreed on a series of confidence-building measures. 


During a trip to Moscow by Jiang in April 1997, the two countries signed a 
pact along with the former Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and 
Kyrgyzstan on troop reductions along the former Soviet-Chinese border which 
stretches for more than 7,000 km. 


The next Shanghai Five summit is scheduled for May 2000 in Tajik capital 
Dushanbe. 

#11
Moscow Times
August 27, 1999 
PARTY LINES: 'Family' Foe Now Appears Yeltsin's Savior 
By Brian Whitmore
Staff Writer


The view from behind the Kremlin walls must look pretty bleak these days. 


There is the alarming daily diet of money-laundering scandals appearing in 
each morning's papers, each one worse than the last. There is the increasing 
political isolation of President Boris Yeltsin and his rapidly shrinking 
inner circle. There is the fact that nobody f except Prime Minister Vladimir 
Putin f seems to want Yeltsin's political endorsement. 


"As soon as the Kremlin shows affection for a political party, that party 
loses from 5 to 7 percent of its support," former Prime Minister Sergei 
Stepashin said Thursday. 


This is the same Stepashin, who, after being fired, expressed his undying 
loyalty to the president. It is also the same Stepashin who, as Grigory 
Yavlinsky told it last week, objected that he couldn't join the anti-Kremlin 
Yabloko because as an "officer" he would always need to be ready to do 
Yeltsin's bidding. Thursday, Stepashin was singing a different tune, saying 
"I have no obligations to anybody other than to my own conscience and to my 
own family." 


It appears that Stepashin's officer's loyalty only goes so far. In the most 
recent issue of Literaturnaya Gazeta newspaper, respected columnist Alexander 
Zhilin wrote, citing Kremlin sources,that the real reason Stepashin was fired 
on Aug. 9 was that Yeltsin's doctors had informed first daughter Tatyana 
Dyachenko that the president's health was so bad he should even not be shown 
on television. 


In other words, the old man could keel over any minute. Stepashin could no 
longer be trusted to protect Yeltsin's inner circle because he was, Zhilin 
wrote, "categorically opposed to any adventurist plans on the part of the 
Kremlin to cancel elections." It seems that late in the game, Stepashin 
decided that it was time to do the right thing. 


And if the present looks bleak from behind the Kremlin walls, the future must 
look terrifying. 


The main political groupings competing for power post-Yeltsin are Gennady 
Zyuganov's Communists, Yury Luzhkov's Fatherland-All Russia and the 
Yabloko-Stepashin alliance. 


What do these contenders say about life for citizen Yeltsin when he ceases to 
be President Yeltsin? 


The Communists are making the usual noises about trying Yeltsin for "genocide 
against the Russian people," but nobody really expects them to get anywhere 
near real power. Fatherland-All Russia is a more realistic bet to become the 
new ruling party. On one hand, their "wise old man," Yevgeny Primakov, says 
that he favors legislation guaranteeing Yeltsin "complete safety and a 
dignified life." 


On the other hand, there is Luzhkov's campaign chief Georgy Boos saying that, 
if they don't watch their step, Yeltsin and his "family" could be facing a 
Ceausescu scenario f in reference to Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, who 
was shot together with his wife in 1989 after losing power. 


Perhaps with this in mind, Stepashin on Thursday conceded that the Kremlin 
was facing near total isolation and should "think seriously about which 
political forces will be kinder to them." Translation: Yabloko-Stepashin 
would be the safest bet for Yeltsin if he wants to enjoy a peaceful 
retirement. Just don't endorse us publicly, please. 


The irony is rich. The Kremlin has done everything it can to keep Yavlinsky, 
the self-styled principled corruption fighter, out of power. Now he is 
Yeltsin's last, best hope for a peaceful retirement.