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Edited by David Johnson
| ISSUE #44 | April16,1999 |
The CDI Russia Weekly is an e-mail newsletter that carries news and
analysis on all aspects of today's Russia, including political, economic,
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organization.
MOSCOW, April 13 (Itar-Tass) - Strategic
strike arms and defensive arms make
up a single system, and a radical reduction
in strategic arms is only
possible with strict compliance with the
anti-ballistic missile, or ABM,
treaty of 1972, said the director of Russia's
Centre for Internationl
Strategic Studies, Major-General Vladimir
Belous.
He spoke at a press conference on The ABM
Treaty as a Barometre of
Russian-American Relations on Tuesday.
Asked about modifications of the ABM treaty,
Belous said the "creation of the
large-scale national anti-missile defense
system (AMD) of the US is a
strategic line, and all the acts that
have been undertaken during 27 years
since the signing of this document in
an implicit or explicit form are aimed
at achieving results in implementing these
plans".
"The creation of the ADM is a matter of
time and money. Such a system will be
deployed and Russia's possiblities to
counter this are fairly limited.
However, in a political-diplomatic plane,
our reserves are far from
exhausted," Belous said.
He said Russia can ratify the Start-2 strategic
arms reduction treaty without
damage to its national security.
However, Russia should reconsider foundations
of its military doctrine with
account for the present-day realities
before ratifying it, he said.
"Besides, strategic and tactical nuclear
forces of our country must be in
condition to deter the threat of an unleashed
aggression and escalation of a
military conflict into a large-scale war,"
Belous said.
"Russia can get some economic advantages
after the fulfillment of Start-2,
but illusions that the West has become
a consistent peacemaker contradict the
national interests of Russia. The events
in the Balkans convince one of
that," he said.
MOSCOW, April 15 (Itar-Tass)-- Moscow and
Beijing have expressed grave
concern in connection with the U.S.-announced
plans to set up a
national ABM defence system, which is
fraught with the danger of
undermining the ABM treaty, says the Russo-
Chinese communique on the
results of the bilateral consultations
on problems of strategic
stability, which were held here on Thursday
between Deputy Foreign
Minister Georgy Mamedov and Chinese Deputy
Foreign Minister Wan Gun.
The implementation of Washington's plans
to set up a national
anti-missile defence system "would be
a violation of the main
commitment of the ABM treaty: not to deploy
an anti-missile defence
system on the territory of the country
and not to create the foundation
for such defence", the communique notes.
The ABM treaty, which was
signed in 1972, is regarded by Moscow
and Beijing as "the cornerstone
of strategic stability in the world".
In the course of the consultations, the
sides stressed that the
undermining or violation of the ABM treaty
would bring about several
negative consequences: appearance of new
factors capable of
destabilising the international situation
both at global and regional
levels, and emergence of preconditions
for the resumption of the arms
race and for additional obstacles to the
disarmament process.
In the emerging situation, Russia and China
deem it necessary to draw
special attention of the international
community to the consequences
that may arise in case the ABM treaty
is violated, the joint communique
points out.
Last week, President Boris Yeltsin said
that Russia might go to war if the
West continued to "liberate" the Serbian
province of Kosovo. Yeltsin's
predictions of a possible "all-European
and perhaps a world war" were
ridiculed in the West as a not-very-clever
domestic publicity stunt or maybe
simply the ravings of an old drunk.
Russian war threats sounded even less serious
after the State Duma speaker,
Gennady Seleznyov, announced that Yeltsin
had ordered Russia's strategic
rocket forces to retarget their nuclear
weapons on NATO countries involved in
the attacks on Yugoslavia. Seleznyov's
declaration was swiftly dismissed by
spokesmen in the Kremlin, in Russia's
Defense Ministry and even the Duma.
NATO's supreme commander in Europe General
Wesley Clark dismissed the threat
by proclaiming that NATO will "continue
with the mission exactly as planned,
regardless of political and diplomatic
atmospherics."
During less than a month of war, Western
political and military leaders have
already several times grossly miscalculated
the end results of their actions.
NATO military leaders did not anticipate
nor prepare any effective
contingency plan to stop a vicious and
highly effective ethnic cleansing of
Kosovo by the forces of Yugoslav President
Slobodan Milosevic. Western
leaders did not foresee the resilience
of Serb resistance and the
overwhelming support the Serbian people
would give Milosevic. Western leaders
also fully failed to forecast the absolute
outrage of the Russian people and
the rapid spread of grass-roots anti-Western
sentiment that followed the
order: "Bombs away."
With all those strategic blunders, its
actually hard to find any item Western
military and political planners did get
right. Perhaps the outright dismissal
of any possibility that Russian nuclear
threats could become a decisive
factor in the current war is also a miscalculation?
Using strategic nuclear threats to stop
a conventional local military
conflict is nothing new. In 1973, President
Richard Nixon successfully used
nuclear deterrence to prevent an Arab-Israeli
war from spreading and also to
stop the fighting. In October 1973, the
Kremlin was on the verge of sending
conventional forces to attack Israel.
The U.S. Army, just extracted from
Vietnam after losing the war, seemed to
be no match for the Russians. At any
rate, the U.S. public would not have tolerated
a new war. So Nixon put U.S.
strategic forces on high alert and balanced
for several hours on the verge of
a global nuclear holocaust. Such totally
unreasonable behavior intimidated
both the Russians and the advancing Israelis.
Less than 24 hours later, the
fighting was over and the warring parties
ready to talk peace.
Of course, Nixon had a reputation as a
vicious madman, ready to bomb anyone,
to allow unarmed students to be shot dead
on campuses and so on, while
Yeltsin seems to be considered a harmless
drunk and Russia too weak to even
shake a finger.
Last week a high-ranking intelligence and
analytical official in the U.S.
National Security Council (also closely
connected to the White House) told
me: "Of course, we cannot fully rely on
it, but, you know, Pavel, the Serbs
are cowards. They lost to the Croats,
they lost in Bosnia. The Serbs can
fight civilians, not real solders. If
we press them a bit harder, they will
buckle sometime soon."
I believe that this official, out of politeness,
did not mention that in
Washington's decision-making quarters,
Russians are also considered to be
yellow. After the defeat in Afghanistan
and the even more humiliating defeat
in Chechnya, the Russians are viewed as
not having the guts to fight anyone,
anywhere.
It is apparently exactly such calculations
that have dragged the West into
the present ill-conceived military operation
in the Balkans, while incoherent
statements from Moscow only aggravated
Western arrogance. In fact, Russia can
fully use its nuclear weapons without
"retargeting." Russian nukes are today
controlled by the same war machines -
using the same programs - that were
used during the Cold War. If I know that,
Clark also knows it. When Seleznyov
was reported to have babbled about nuclear
"retargeting," Clark must have
said something like: "Humbug," before
dismissing the case.
Humbug it may be. However, its clear that
the weaker a nuclear superpower
becomes, the more it is inclined to resort
to nuclear threats in time of
crisis, as the United States showed in
1973.
Hoping that such threats are simply a bluff
and that Russia turns yellow each
time its bluff is called may be the final
miscalculation President Bill
Clinton's administration makes before
the United States goes up in smoke.
MOSCOW, April 14 (Itar-Tass) - Examination
of the situation on the state
border and adjacent areas gives grounds
to draw a conclusion that the Russian
state border increasingly becomes an object
of geopolitical aspirations of
some neighbouring countries as well as
international crime families.
A stable range of threats to Russian border
security has formed finally, the
first deputy director of the Federal Border
Service (FPS), Lieutenant-General
Nikolai Reznichenko, told reporters here
on Wednesday.
According to the general, these threats
include smuggling of drugs, weapons
as well as means of committing saboteur
and terror activities, as well as
plunder of natural, especially marine,
biological resources and consequences
of illegal migration.
Reznichenko said that the situation with
smuggling weapons as well as means
of committing terror and saboteur activities
remains disquieting along the
entire border. The greatest number of
seizures of firearms is registered by
the North-Caucasian and Trans-Baikal regional
administrations. Borderguards
seized 24 firearms and 3,400 rounds of
ammunition in the first quarter of
this year alone, the general continued.
Reznichenko also predicts an aggravation
of the situation in Tajikistan. In
the general's words, "this is caused by
the continued domestic conflict in
that country as well as by the latest
successes of the Taliban movement in
Afghanistan."
"Taliban fighters spread the most radical
trends of Islam, and Tajikistan is
undoubtedly in the sphere of their close
attention," he stressed.
Borderguards thwarted 33 attempts at armed
crossings into Tajikistan,
detained 54 border transgressors and confiscated
over 42 kilograms of drugs
in the first three months of this year
alone. Borderguards were fired on
seven times and were engaged in armed
clashes four times, the general
reported.
According to the FPS, the number of state
border transgressors and illegal
migrants does not decline. Most detentions
were made on the Russian border
with Georgia, China, Azerbaijan and Mongolia.
Borderguards detained 746
border transgressors over the first quarter
of this year.
FPS officials seized contraband worth 4,9
million roubles and 7,000 U.S.
dollars over the past period and detained
goods to a sum of seven million
roubles.
In the meantime, officials and borders
service bodies carried out 2,258
inspections of Russian and foreign ships
as well as held responsible 310
breachers of environmental legislation,
while materials on eight facts of
violation were forwarded to prosecutors'
offices to institute criminal cases.
Borderguards seized 1,500 tonnes of illegally
caught marine products from
poachers.
Turning to financing of the Federal Border
Service, Reznichenko noted that if
its stable trend persists to the year-end,
this will help the FPS to fulfil
its main tasks. He also stressed that
despite present difficulties and
problems, the Russian border security
system functions steadily.
Over 10,000 border patrols are dispatched
daily to protect the Russian border
in all directions. They use coast guard
ships, aviation as well as other
technical means to the utmost extent,
the general concluded.
Budapest's Nepszabadsag in Hungarian
10 April 1999
[translation for personal use only]
Interview with Aleksey Arbatov, deputy
chairman of the State Duma
Defense Committee and leader of the
Yabloko faction, by Laszlo M.
Lengyel; in Moscow on 9 April: "Aleksey
Arbatov: Moscow Cannot Dwell
Solely on the West"
[Lengyel] After the conclusion of
the Yugoslav war,
the set of relations in world politics
will never be the same again.
Russia's place, instruments, and stance
will be certainly different. What
will Russia's new role and international
policy be like?
[Arbatov] A great deal depends, of course,
on how this conflict ends: If
during this totally senseless war NATO
bombs Yugoslavia into dust and
imposes a solution by force, then Russia
will have to find the proper
response to this situation. It will have
to find allies among all the
countries that not only do not accept
but oppose NATO's policy, and it
will have to fashion a new military alliance
out of them.
[Lengyel] What happens if Russia's influence
is still felt in this crisis,
and Moscow participates in its settlement?
[Arbatov] If NATO puts an end to this
adventurist action and is ready to
accept compromises; if, by relying on
moderate Albanian forces, and
making use of Russia's mediator role,
a solution can be worked out,
perhaps we will be able to avoid a new
cold war. Of course, the earlier
euphoric atmosphere of mutual confidence
and cooperation cannot be
restored. However, more or less normal
relations could still be
established between Russia and, particularly,
the European Union, or
Russia and the United States, in the field
of arms reduction.
[Lengyel] According to certain opinions,
the current crisis has proven that
Russia has very few genuine tools to exert
influence on certain processes
in world politics. Do you think that it
will have more such tools in the
new set of relations?
[Arbatov] Indeed, Russia possesses very
few efficient tools, and the
Yugoslavcrisis has demonstrated this as
extensively as possible. Regardless of
the specific outcome of this crisis, Russia's
most important subject for
reflection will be how to regain most
of those tools. Quite obviously,
this can be achieved above all by fortifying
its economy, increasing its
military strength, and by expanding its
political ties and circle of
allies. The fresh news is that Duma Chairman
Gennadiy Seleznev has met
with President Boris Yeltsin, and the
latter allegedly approved the idea
of Yugoslavia joining the Russia-Belarus
federation.
[Lengyel] The question is, of course,
how such a federation can be achieved
technically.
[Arbatov] Technically, of course,
the issue is problematic, but politically
it is very important. This is just one
of the directions in which Russia is
trying to strengthen its political influence.
Russia has realized that it
must not orient itself solely toward the
West, further its relations with
the West, only, or place all its hopes
exclusively in the West. Should it
do so, Russia would lose its influence
and reputation, and it would
become isolated. This is the conclusion
Russia has drawn, regardless of
the outcome of the Yugoslav crisis, and
it will keep this lesson in mind
for a long time.
MOSCOW, April 15 (Itar-Tass) - A State
Duma lower house leader on Thursday
dubbed as "Goebbels-like propaganda" statements
by Western politicians
blaming Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic
for the deaths of
ethic-Albanian refugees under NATO bombs.
"Lies are increasingly becoming the weapon
of the Atlantic alliance,"
chairman of the Duma committee for international
affairs Vladimir Lukin
said.
Western politicians bogged down in the
Yugoslavia conflict are "awkwardly
trying to cover up their international
gangsterism" by lying, Lukin said.
Wednesday's NATO bombing of a column of
refugees in southern Kosovo was "a
heinous crime" for which the West is trying
to blame Milosevic because
NATO and the U.S. are having difficulty
ending the war without losing face.
MOSCOW, April 9 (Interfax) -- The proliferation
of
weapons of mass destruction may be one
of the consequences of NATO's
strikes in Yugoslavia, said State Duma
International Affairs Committee
Chairman Vladimir Lukin. Now the leader
of any country is likely to think
he must possess jarfuls of germs, if not
of an A-bomb, just in case of "a
guy not liked by the Americans" comes
to power in his country, he told an
international conference on Russia's cooperation
with the European Union.
The Balkan crisis has shown again that
Europe is incapable of managing
its own problems, Lukin said. If the European
member nations of NATO
acted more independently, "everybody would
gain," he said. Lukin called
on European countries "to work with Russia
rather than shoot with the
Americans." The role of the West European
Union (incorporated in NATO)
must be enhanced and Russia must be involved
in its operation to a
certain degree, he said.
BELGRADE, April 11 (Itar-Tass) -- Many
Belgrade
residents have to mark Easter in bomb
shelters or in churches, but with
wailing air-raid sirens.
NATO's leaders had no mercy on Yugoslavia
on the Catholic Easter holiday
they marked a week ago. On the day, they
destroyed a heat supplying
station in Belgrade.
Patriarch Pavle of the Serb Orthodox Church
appealed not to bomb the
long-suffering Yugoslav people on Orthodox
Easter Day. Romanian President
Emil Constantinescu called for the same.
However, NATO officials said in
reply that the bombings would continue.
The air-raid signal sounded in Belgrade
an hour and a half before the
midnight Moscow time. However, sound of
flying NATO planes was not heard.
Learning from the bitter experience of
residents in other Yugoslav regions
where the air strikes wiped out whole
residential sections, Belgrade
residents more often spend nights in bomb
shelters.
However, there are many people who came
to churches at Easter.
Dozens of foreign reporters gathered in
the cathedral where patriarch Pavle
led a religious service. He appealed to
NATO to stop the mad bombings.
The Russian Trinity church was closed.
Many Serbs and Russians who used
to celebrate Easter in the church asked
Itar-Tass correspondents why it
was closed. But the reporters could not
answer, because they did not know
either.
Workers of the Russian representative offices
also came to churches, but
there was few of them. The embassy and
other offices are operating under
war-time conditions, and the personnel
have no time to go to a church
even at Easter.
Perhaps, the Russian church was closed
because it is located near the
headquarters of state television. NATO
said it would bomb out Serbia's
radio and television for refusing to give
it access to the broadcasting.
Thousands of people also stayed as "a
human shield" on bridges in Belgrade on
the night to protect the bridges in such
a way from bombing.
MOSCOW, April 15 (Itar-Tass) - Viktor Chernomyrdin,
who was appointed
Russian Special Presidential Envoy for
Settling the Yugoslavian
Conflict on Wednesday, is planning to
take all the necessary measures
to settle the crisis on the Balkans.
"I intend to exert every effort to settle
this conflict," Chernomyrdin
told journalists after his meeting here
with World Bank President James
Wolfensohn.
Chernomyrdin did not rule out the possibility
of his trip to Belgrade
and to the other countries on which the
settlement of the Balkan crisis
depends, but before that, he stressed,
"I have to get down to the
particulars of the issue, to look into
the attending problems". "It is
very important for us to work out Russia's
common stand on the crisis,"
Chernomyrdin noted. "Such a single stand
is necessary and will be
elaborated at the head of the president
of the Russian Federation," he
stressed.
According to Chernomyrdin, all the arms
of government in Russia must
exert efforts towards the same goal. He
described as "absolutely
correct" all the previous actions of the
government of Yevgeny Primakov
and of Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov to
settle the crisis in Yugoslavia.
Chernomyrdin believes Primakov's trip
to Belgrade, where he went
together with the foreign and defence
ministers of Russia, was a very
significant and most important event.
"There will be no contrapositions," Chernomyrdin
stressed. "We shall
all jointly elaborate our stand and shall
jointly implement it. There
will be enough work for everybody," he
added.
CHERNOMYRDIN AS BALKANS ENVOY: ANOTHER
BLOW TO PRIMAKOV?
Perhaps the most important aspect of Victor
Chernomyrdin's selection as President
Boris Yeltsin's
official representative in the Balkans
conflict is that
it casts a further shadow over Primakov.
During his
seven months as prime minister, Primakov
has not, to put
it mildly, won any laurels for how he
has managed the
Russian economy. Were Chernomyrdin to
make actual or
perceived gains in resolving the conflict,
Primakov
would be even further weakened, particularly
given that
foreign policy and diplomacy is putatively
his strong
point.
One account today went so far as to say
that Yeltsin, in
naming Chernomyrdin his special envoy
for the
Yugoslavian crisis, had "in essence named
a parallel
premier" (Kommersant, April 15). While
that may be
something of an exaggeration, another
source reported
that Chernomyrdin's nomination was "lobbied"
by two
Kremlin insiders believed to be among
Primakov's main
ill-wishers--former Kremlin chief of staff
Valentin
Yumashev, who is said to retain a strong
influence in
Yeltsin's inner circle, and Tatyana Dyachenko,
the
president's daughter and "image" adviser
(Segodnya,
April 15).
YUGOSLAV CONFLICT TO HAVE SPILLOVER EFFECT
ON RUSSIA? The
Federal Security Service (FSB) is concerned
about the
domestic effects of the increasing number
of volunteers being
recruited in Russia to serve in the Kosova
conflict (see
"RFE/RL Russian Federation Report," 14
April 1999),
"Kommersant-Daily" reported on 14 April.
According to a FSB
source, "radical organizations are setting
up illegal
paramilitary formations on the pretext
of recruiting
volunteers for Yugoslavia--either for
the propaganda effect
on the eve of the State Duma election
campaign or for use in
street clashes should the domestic political
situation
deteriorate." The daily also cited the
fear voiced by
Tatarstan President Mintimer Shaimiev
that participation by
Russians on both sides of the front line
could destabilize
the situation in Tatarstan and elsewhere.
In addition to some
Tatarstan residents, a volunteer battalion
from the Congress
of Peoples of Dagestan and Ichkeria are
also planning to go
to aid the Kosovar Albanians, the newspaper
reported. JAC
Divided Russia sent out conflicting signals
on its Yugoslav strategy
yesterday, as President Boris Yeltsin
put a pro-western politician at the
head of his peace efforts and more Russian
warships prepared to sail to the
Mediterranean.
The mixed messages reflect two deep and
genuine fears among Russians that
Nato presents a threat to them, and that
Russia risks being dragged into
the conflict.
In a snub to his rival for power in Moscow
the prime minister Yevgeny
Primakov Mr Yeltsin named an ex-premier,
Victor Chernomyrdin, as his
special representative to make peace in
the Balkans.
Mr Primakov, the former foreign intelligence
chief who until now has
supervised Moscow's attempts to mediate
between Belgrade and the West, has
taken a friendly line towards Slobodan
Milosevic and criticised Nato harshly.
Although few rate Mr Chernomyrdin's diplomatic
skills highly, his
appointment sends an important signal
to Mr Milosevic that Russia wants him
to make concessions.
Turkey reported yesterday that Russia had
notified it of plans to send nine
warships through the Bosporus from the
Black Sea to the Mediterranean in
the coming weeks. So far Russia has sent
just one unarmed reconnaissance
ship, the Liman, to the Adriatic.
With Nato's operations now entering their
third week, the Yugoslav conflict
has slipped down the Russian news agenda,
partly because the wealthy
proprietors of television and newspapers
fear the political consequences of
the surge of patriotic indignation the
bombing provoked. Some coverage of
the Kosovo Albanian cause and the refugee
crisis has belatedly crept into
view.
But two abiding concerns remain. The first
is an overwhelming opposition to
any involvement of Russia in the war,
including the supply of weapons to
the Serbs. The second is a deep conviction
that the United States is bent
on world domination, and that Nato is
as likely to attack Russia as it is
to attack Serbia.
'I used to laugh at all the communist talk
that the US wanted to dominate
the world,' said Natalya Platonova, a
Moscow school secretary. 'Now I'm
starting to believe them.' But she went
on: 'We mustn't get involved in war
under any circumstances. There should
only be negotiations.'
The most comprehensive attempt to poll
Russians on their attitudes, from
peasant villages to Moscow skyscrapers,
among scores of different ethnic
groups and across 11 time zones, found
that 63 per cent of those polled
blamed Nato for starting the conflict,
while only six per cent blamed
Yugoslavia.
Before, 57 per cent had positive feelings
towards America, 28 per cent
negative. After the bombing began, 72
per cent described themselves as
hostile towards the US. Almost as many
Russians, 70 per cent, saw Nato's
actions as 'a direct threat to Russian
security'.
Despite the hostility and fear, 86 per
cent said Russia should not allow
itself to be drawn into the fighting 'in
any circumstances'.
Russians interviewed by the Guardian confirmed
the Public Opinion
Foundation poll's findings. 'I think the
US is pursuing this war to expand
its sphere of influence in Europe,' said
Lyudmila Titova, an executive in
the railway workers' union. But 'we shouldn't
send the Serbs arms. If we
send them arms, that means war.'
Even Vladimir Kolesnik, deputy editor of
a newspaper in the Kuban, southern
Russia's Cossack heartland, was cautious.
Calling Yugoslavia a US test site
for new weapons, he said Russia should
try to stop the fighting through the
United Nations. 'Russian troops could
keep the peace without Nato troops,'
he said. 'If Nato agreed to this, Russia
could keep the peace.'
NATO's 50th anniversary had been expected
not only to celebrate its
successful contribution to keeping the
peace throughout the Cold War, but
also to herald its expanded role, as U.S.
Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright said, in keeping the peace for
its next 50 years. The Washington
summit, on April 23 to 25, will display
all the pomp befitting the occasion.
It will reflect the enlargement of membership
in Central Europe and reaffirm
an open-door policy to more expansion.
It will issue a new "vision statement"
for the post-Cold War world.
What had not been expected was that the
fireworks for the 50th would pale
beside a month of NATO's nightly bombing
of Yugoslavia. The question is
whether NATO is to remain an alliance
for collective defense or be
transformed into a collective security
"enforcer," initiating military action
against other countries deemed to threaten
"the interests and values" of
member states. Before the last NATO summit
in December, Washington proposed
an explicit statement declaring NATO's
intention to act, when "possible," in
fulfillment of a Security Council mandate.
Agreement was not reached; whether
such a formal statement will be made at
the Washington summit is not clear.
In any case, NATO has decided to take
military action against Yugoslavia
without a UN mandate - for it could not
obtain one.
Its actions over Kosovo, for better or
worse, herald the new NATO. The
alliance initiated military action not
in defense of its 19 members, but of
their "interests and values." This makes
a mockery of arguments only recently
made to Russia that it had nothing to
fear from NATO enlargement, because,
after all, NATO was merely a defensive
alliance. Little wonder, too, that
some Russians see a potential threat if
NATO viewed a Russian internal crisis
- for example, a renewed conflict in Chechnya
- as creating a challenge to
its members' interests. That may be far-fetched,
if only because Russia has a
nuclear arsenal - not the message we want
Russia, or potential nuclear
proliferators, to draw.
The new NATO clearly has constructive aims
and a laudable new "vision," but
it has not resolved some fundamental issues.
If it assumes the right to place
limits on the sovereignty of non-members,
without a mandate from the UN or
consensus of the world community, it should
at least have a clear
understanding of the repercussions of
its actions.
In initiating military attacks on Yugoslavia,
the justification was partly
self-determination for the inhabitants
of Kosovo and partly humanitarian.
NATO's own prescribed settlement called
for accepting the sovereignty of
Yugoslavia over Kosovo, while demanding
a grant of self-determination for the
Kosovars short of independence. Why give
precedence to self-determination
that does not lead to independence? Moreover,
NATO presented Yugoslavia with
an ultimatum, under threat of bombing,
not only to accept that redefinition
of its own sovereignty, but also to accept
NATO's peacekeepers, not those of
the United Nations or the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in
Europe, another sharp diminution of Yugoslav
sovereignty.
Bombing Yugoslavia was NATO's action of
choice, not because it was most
likely to succeed, but because it was
the easiest to undertake. The initial
explanation was that it would push Yugoslav
President Slobodan Milosevic to
accept the NATO-proffered settlement.
This improbable, but apparently
genuine, explanation was quickly supplemented
by claims that it would
"degrade" Yugoslav capability to suppress
the Kosovars.
The bombing campaign not only failed to
shake Milosevic, it has rallied all
Serbs around him. Its second objective,
to prevent instability in the region,
has failed spectacularly. The support
of Montenegrins for their liberal and
pro-Western government has been shaken
by the bombing, including bombing in
Montenegro. The outflow of half a million
Kosovo Albanians into Albania,
Macedonia and Montenegro has created a
serious humanitarian problem. It also
threatens to destabilize Macedonia, whose
minority Serb population has become
anti-NATO and pro-Milosevic as a direct
result of the raids, and whose
Macedonian majority is threatened by the
possible increase of its own restive
Albanian minority.
Another potentially serious kind of collateral
damage is occurring within
NATO itself. Only Britain has supported
the United States with any enthusiasm
in the air war. The Germans and others
have been uncomfortable with
unilateral NATO efforts at "broadening"
international law, and the French at
sidestepping the UN Security Council.
There have been objections in Italy and
Greece to the extent of the bombing campaign.
Russia's official reaction to the bombing
of Serbia has been sharp but
measured. Far more significant is a decisive
increase in underlying popular
distrust and hostility toward the United
States and NATO, with parliamentary
elections in Russia only months away and
a critical presidential election in
little more than a year.
Many countries have been uneasy at the
U.S. air attacks on Iraq, but that was
viewed as an exceptional case, with a
clear UN mandate and against a palpable
threat to other nations. The NATO attacks
on Yugoslavia, without a UN mandate
and with no claim of a Yugoslav threat
beyond its own borders, suggest to
many a more ominous pattern of hegemonic
military initiative by the United
States and NATO to serve their own "interests
and values" rather than those
of the world community.
NATO, the old NATO, made a major contribution
to maintaining peace through 40
years of the Cold War by credible and
reliable readiness to defend its
members. For 10 years, it has been seeking
a new role. The Washington summit
is supposed to consolidate and celebrate
the new NATO. Happy Birthday, NATO,
on your 50th. But it is a little premature
to celebrate the next 50.
MOSCOW, April 11 (Tanjug) -- Chief of the
General
Staff of the Russian Strategic Forces,
Gen. Anatoly Perminov, who is in
command of units with 1,500 inter-continental
missiles with 6,600 nuclear
warheads, has said that up to 11 minutes
are needed to target the Russian
missiles at NATO countries which participate
in aggression on Yugoslavia.
Gen. Perminov said that Russian ballistic
missiles needed 5 minutes to
get to Turkey, 7-8 to reach Germany, France
and Italy, and less than 12
minutes to hit Great Britain.
[Description of source: state-owned news
agency; reflects views of Milosevic
regime]
Prague, 14 April 1999 (RFE/RL) -- The conflict
in Kosovo continues to
dominate selected recent commentary from
the press of nations in transition
from communism.
RUSSIA
NEZAVISIMAY GAZETA: Kosovo could become
the Cuban missile crisis of the
Balkans
Writing in Russia's Nezavisimay Gazeta,
Dmitry Gornostayev warns that
Kosovo could become the "Cuban missile
crisis of the Balkans." Gornostayev
says that an announcement by President
Boris Yeltsin last week that he
favored Yugoslavia's bid to join the union
of Russia and Belarus
constituted a "sharp change" in Russian
policy. Gornostayev says Yeltsin's
comment was greeted as "sensational news."
The Yeltsin announcement along with press
reports that Russia was
considering retargeting its nuclear missiles,
Gornostayev writes, "very
much resembles the Cuban missile crisis
of 1962." The writer adds: "So far
we cannot say whether the acting leaders
will have enough common sense to
avoid the catastrophe into which the U.S.
administration is drawing the
international community."
IZVESTIA: As usual, Yeltsin has played his game
In Izvestia, writers Svetlana Babaeva and
Alexander Sadchikov note that the
retargeting and Yugoslav union pronouncements
came as the State Duma was
preparing to debate four impeachment counts
against Yeltsin. They write:
"Yeltsin has mixed up all the current
issues of the Russian political
establishment."
Izvestia's commentary says: "Yeltsin's
statements were followed first by
cautious disclaimers" from sources who
declined to be identified, then by
responses from the Russian Missile Forces
"which neither confirmed nor
denied" the retargeting reports. The writers
say: "As usual, the president
has played his game. What exactly this
game is we cannot yet say, but it is
clear that the political situation in
Russia, complicated as it is, is
still mixed and uncertain."
Babaeva and Sadchikov write: "Embassies
of foreign countries in Moscow are
starting to show interest in both the
new would-be union of three states
and the retargeting of Russian missiles.
Now they will have to be told what
exactly it was that Yeltsin and (Duma
Speaker Gennady) Seleznyov wanted to
say in reality."
IZVESTIA: US prefers Moscow's mediation
Another Izvestia writer, Melor Sturua,
reported on April 9 what Sturua
claims were "previously unknown details
of a telephone call between
(Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny) Primakov
and (U.S. Vice President Al)
Gore." He said Gore asked Russia to mediate
in new attempts to find a
diplomatic solution in Kosovo.
The writer said: "The U.S. administration
has no desire whatsoever to
negotiate with Milosevic eye to eye. We
should emphasize that the
Yugoslavian president likewise is not
ecstatic about the idea of direct
negotiations with Clinton, the American
Hitler, and also prefers Moscow's
mediation."
NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA: Events point to imminent ground operations
Also from Russia, two writers in Nezavisimaya
Gazeta predict the imminent
invasion of Yugoslavia by NATO ground
troops. One, Dmitri Gornostayev
(quoted earlier) even predicts the date.
His prediction, he says, is based
on "certain political and military indications."
The writer cites a number
of events, and adds: "All of these events
form a logical chain based on
which one can conclude that a planned
political and military campaign is
being waged to prepare the public for
the idea of a possible ground
operation against Yugoslavia." He says:
"Against this background, rumors
have been circulating in certain NATO
member states that the NATO summit in
Washington may be rescheduled for a later
date. It is likely (therefore
that NATO) plans to launch an offensive
before April 23-24 (when) the
summit was supposed to be held."
TATARSTAN
KAZANSKOYE VREMYA: Islamic theologians
of Russia support Kosovar Albanian
Muslims
In the Russian republic of Tatarstan, Kazanskoye
Vremya describes the
difficulties of Muslim religious leaders
in Russia, Moscow and Kazan in
formulating views on Yugoslavia. The newspaper
says that Russian chief
mufti Talgat Tajutdin and Moscow mufti
Ravil Gaynutdin support the
positions of Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny
Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri
Luzhkov concerning Serbia and Kosovo.
The newspaper says that Tatarstan's
mufti Gosman Khazrat also expressed his
solidarity with these statements.
The newspaper continues; "Meanwhile, many
of the influential mullas and
Islamic theologians of Russia directly
speak for supporting Kosovar
Albanian Muslims. Turkey participates
in the air strikes against Serbia.
Arab countries positively assert the position
of NATO, and, reportedly,
Arab Islamic circles criticized the statements
of the mufti in Russia."
MOSCOW, April 15 (Itar-Tass) - Russia is
able to boost export of
advanced weapons and military hardware,
offering new samples unmatched
in the world for international markets.
Prospects for development of
military cooperation between Russia and
foreign states as well as
measures to increase export of military
goods were discussed on
Thursday at a meeting of the scientific
council at the federal
state-owned Rosvooruzheniye company, Itar-Tass
learned at the
Rosvooruzheniye public relations centre
here.
The meeting was attended by general designers
and executives of leading
factories and organisations of the military-industrial
complex as well
as officials from government structures
and the Russian Security
Council.
The scientific council was set up last
January at the initiative of
leaders of the military-industrial complex
as well as of
Rosvooruzheniye to improve cooperation
between factories and bodies of
state power. It is called upon to hammer
out measures for stepping up
export of weapons and military hardware.
Radiostantsiya Ekho Moskvy
13 April 1999
[translation for personal use only]
The aim of the United States and a number
of
European countries to move the problem
of atomic energy only in the
direction of the nonproliferation of technology
deprives this industry of
the opportunity to develop. This is what
Minister for Atomic Energy
[Yevgeniy] Adamov said at the meeting
of the World Energy Council in
Moscow today. Our correspondent reports:
[Correspondent] There is a surplus
of atomic energy in the USA and Europe
today and these countries have made nonproliferation
their main priority. Yevgeniy
Adamov is, however, convinced that a significant
advance in security
will, in the final instance, lead to an
increase in the cost of
electricity. If the entire problem of
nuclear energy is reduced to only
nonproliferation, then in only 10 years
time Europe will be unable to
offer anything to the countries of Asia,
Africa and South America. This
is a potential energy market where there
is a serious shortage of energy
resources today.
Speaking at the latest session
of the World Energy Council, the Russian
minister said that Russia is prepared
to offer a way out of this
situation and to discuss the problems
of energy provision, the problems
of security and the utilization of nuclear
waste without disturbing the
earth's radioactive balance.
Clearly the Russian minister was
offended by the fact that Russia was not
on the list of those invited to speak
at this summit meeting. However, (?the
chairman of WEC, Mr Jusset) assured the
minister that nobody is ignoring
Russia and it will undoubtedly be allowed
to speak at the Zurich summit.
Larissa Moksina from the President Hotel.
MOSCOW, April 15 (Itar-Tass) - Patriarch
Alexy II, head of the Russian
Orthodox Church, is planning to set out
on a peace mission to
Yugoslavia on Tuesday, a source in the
Moscow Patriarchy told Tass on
Thursday.
Alexy II is expected to meet Yugoslav leaders
and the head of the Serb
Orthodox Church, Patriarch Pavle, to discuss
ways to have NATO's
bombings stopped.
The final programme of the visit is still
to be drawn up. Talks are now
under way on provision of air passage
for his plane, the source said.
Alexy II has been on peace missions in
the Balkans before. In May 1994,
he visited several republics of the former
Yugoslavia and was the only
head of a denomination to visit Sarajevo
in the height of the armed
conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina. He
even crossed a mine field in a
tank.
Back in 1994, Alexy took on the difficult
task of intermediary to
prepare a meeting of the heads of Bosnia's
Orthodox believers,
Catholics, and Muslims.
That meeting took place at Sarajevo airport
under the protection of
U.N. troops.
http://www.russiajournal.com
Russian Military Presence Remains Strong
in Former Soviet Union
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
Russia has stationed soldiers and
built bases in a number of CIS states
and other foreign countries. These
forces are intended to protect Russia's
national interests and undertake
peacekeeping missions. International treaties
and agreements regulate the
activities of these forces, and the Russian
Constitution gives the
Federation Council, Russia's upper house
of parliament, authority over them.
Ukraine
The Black Sea Fleet and ground troops are
stationed in Sevastopol and
several other sites in Crimea. A 1997
agreement with Ukraine allows Russia
to rent 18,500 hectares of Crimean land
over the next 20 years, including
3,500 hectares in Sevastopol. Russia's
Black Sea Fleet consists of about
25,000 soldiers. Auxiliary personnel and
servicemen's family members bring
the total to between 65,000 and 75,000.
The fleet comprises some 100
battleships and supporting vessels, sufficient
to guarantee the security of
Russia's national interests in and around
the Black Sea. Around 500
personnel also operate several Russian-Ukrainian
anti-ballistic missile
facilities.
Transcaucasia
No more than 10,000 Russian troops are
stationed in Transcaucasia,
including Georgia and Armenia. The National
Assembly of Armenia has
ratified a treaty providing for a Russian
military base in the republic for
the next 25 years. Yerevan has a good
relationship with Moscow; currently
Russian military units are deployed both
there and in Gyumri, close to the
Armenian-Turkish border, the location
of Russian military headquarters and
the army's main forces. A mechanized infantry
regiment and the commanding
cluster are located in Yerevan. A MIG-29
squadron and S-300 anti-missile
complex are also stationed in Armenia.
In Georgia, Russia maintains military formations
in the cities of
Akhalkalaki, Batumi and Vaziani. It also
has two peacekeeping forces: 1,600
men in the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict
area and 500 men in the
Georgian-Ossetian conflict area. Georgia
has not ratified a treaty on
Russia's military presence in the republic,
and Georgian leadership has
more than once raised the subject of closing
Russia's military bases in the
republic and replacing them with NATO
or UN peacekeepers.
But Tbilisi lacks control of its provinces
and has no power in Abkhazia.
The mostly Armenian population of Akhalkalaki
is against the withdrawal of
Russian troops, and the leader of Adzharia,
Aslan Abashidze, has more than
once said that the Russian military must
remain the guarantor of peace and
stability in Transcaucasia.
Abashidze recently agreed to finance Russian
military exercises in
Adzharia. Aware of the positive attitude
toward the Russian military from
local governments inside Georgia and the
high probability of internal
conflicts flaring up again, Tbilisi officially
tolerates Russian presence
in the republic.
Russia also has economic leverage in Georgia.
In March, Russia halted its
supply of natural gas and electricity
to Georgia due to unpaid debts. A
"warming" of relations between Moscow
and Tbilisi immediately followed the
act.
In Azerbaijan, Russia has an early warning
system located near the city of
Gabala. Negotiations on the status of
the facility have been underway for
several years now, but no positive results
have yet been achieved.
Moldova (Transdnestr)
Under international treaties and Russian-Moldovan
agreements, the
Operational Group of Russian Troops in
the Transdnester Region of Moldova
has fewer than 3,000 men. Its headquarters,
located in the city of
Tiraspol, oversee peacekeeping tasks.
The group also guarantees the
security of the huge stores of arms and
ammunition inherited by
Transdnester from the Soviet Union.
Russia has military or quasi-military infrastructures
in other countries.
In Kazakstan, Russia oversees the Baikonur
Cosmodrome which it leases, as
well as several air-defense testing ranges
and the Balkhash early warning
system. Russia runs the Baranovichi early
warning system in Belarus, a
naval repair base in Kamran, Vietnam,
and several intelligence units in Cuba.
Russia's peacekeeping force in Bosnia and
Herzegovina numbers about 1,500
men. Until recently, it operated within
the framework of the NATO
Stabilization Force. But after NATO began
bombing in Yugoslavia, Russia
withdrew its force from NATO subordination
and may recall it to Russia.
Tajikistan
The CIS Joint Peacekeeping Force stationed
in Tajikistan includes Russia's
201st Motorized Infantry Division, which
has about 7,000 men and remains
under an existing Russian-Tajik agreement.
Division commander Major General Valentin
Orlov says his force guards
eleven segments of the Tajik-Afghan border,
numerous vital objects and
facilities in the republic (airports,
bridges, roads, etc.) It is also
responsible for the security of Russian
infrastructure, including the
Embassy, schools, cantonments, and compounds.
In addition, the Russian military takes
part in the delivery, protection
and distribution of humanitarian aid and
other relief supplies coming into
the republic. Units of the 201st infantry
are stationed in Dushanbe,
Kurgan-Tyube and Kulyab.
In the Tajik city of Nurek, a station monitors
satellite activities over
the CIS. This facility houses some 800
Russian servicemen and their
families. A military command group of
100 officers and generals also
operates within the framework of the Tajik
Defense Ministry.
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