#11 - JRL 7301
Kommersant-VLAST
No 33
August 25 - 31, 200
RUSSIAN JOINT STOCK COMPANY UNION OF RIGHT FORCES
Future may be determined by candidate's position on election list
Author: Konstantin Smirnov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
OBSERVERS ARE PERPLEXED BY ANATOLY CHUBAIS' DECISION TO RUN FOR DUMA ON THE PARTY LIST OF THE UNION OF RIGHT FORCES. WILL CHUBAIS ABANDON HIS POST WITH THE RUSSIAN JOINT ENERGY SYSTEMS? ACCORDING TO WHAT INFORMATION THIS MAGAZINE HAS COMPILED, HE IS NOT GOING TO ABANDON THE COMPANY OR THE PARTY.
To a considerable extent the success of Russian political parties and movements in the upcoming parliamentary election will depend on their attack trios - politicians on the top three lots of the election lists. Voters never bother to scan the whole list. That is why some popular persons are usually included on top of the list in the hope that the famous name will help the party or movement in question scale the 5% barrier. The Union of Right Forces, for example, seriously contemplated offering hockey player Pavel Bure the third position on the list but something must have interfered.
Meanwhile, the latest opinion polls gauge the party rating at only 4%, and that is dangerous. Besides, right parties and movements cannot reach an agreement. The Union of Right Forces and Yabloko have never formed an alliance that would have assured them seats on the next Duma. Instead, the right are involved in a bona fide informational war with threats of litigation and mutual accusations.
In short, the Union of Right Forces needed something special for the top three slots on its party list. At first sight, making Anatoly Chubais number three on the list is not special at all. He is one of four chairmen of the Union of Right Forces after all. Indeed, nobody is surprised that Boris Nemtsov is number one, Irina Khakamada number two, and Yegor Gaidar number four. On the other hand, all of them are politicians in their own name, except for Chubais. Should the Union of Right Forces scale the 5% barrier, Chubais will have to choose between the seat on the Duma and his position of RJES CEO.
According to what information this newspaper has compiled, Chubais has already made up his mind. He is not going to leave RJES. It means that Chubais will give his seat to number four, Gaidar. It also means that the Russian Joint Energy Systems has officially joined the election battle to help its party make it to the next Duma. According to the rumors, Chubais was ready for it in 1999 and was prevented only by the complicated situation within the company itself. The major (political) difficulties are over now, and sources close to Chubais say that he can work both for the company and for the party all at the same time. There are even the rumors that Chubais' decision to run for the Duma was approved by the president. It goes without saying that the RJES CEO may find himself under fire of his numerous critics during the election but insiders maintain that he does not fear criticism. This is expected because he will be criticized anyway.
Well, everything appears to be fine and dandy. Right voters are supposed to vote more actively now that the party list is also headed by a renowned reformist. Advocates of the idea even refer to results of an opinion poll showing that 8% of respondents approve of Chubais in the capacity of the RJES CEO. This is more than the 4% of what the Union of Right Forces has, but nobody cares to mention that 54% respondents disapprove of Chubais.
In other words, at this point it is impossible to say whether Chubais' presence on top of the party list is going to help or hinder the Union of Right Forces. In any case, its results will be somewhere near the coveted 5%. Actually, Chubais' involvement should not damage the party or its rating. Electorate of the Union of Right Forces is more or less stable and used to Chubais.
But what does Chubais himself need all of that for? He was a public politician once. He remains an oligarch. As a rule, oligarchs do not strive for a seat on the Duma. Unless the Prosecutor General's Office is after them, that is. And what if the Union of Right Forces lost the election? Voters will be bitterly disappointed. On the other hand, voters may be disappointed in any case. It is therefore better for Chubais to show the country that he is prepared to run the risk and does not fear a failure. Moreover, unofficial sources say that major businessmen supporting the Union of Right Forces insisted on seeing Chubais number three on the party list.
Even if the Union of Right Forces lost the election, it is all right. A new right party may be formed. When reorganization of the Russian Joint Energy Systems is over, Chubais may even become number one on some new party list.
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