#19 - JRL 7278
Azerbaijan's crown prince must prove his mettle:
analysts
August 5, 2003
AFP
Azerbaijan's fading President Heidar Aliyev crowned his son as heir-apparent this week but Ilham Aliyev must move fast to stamp his own authority on the fractious clans which are the real kingmakers in the former Soviet republic, analysts said Tuesday.
From his hospital bed in Turkey, 80-year-old President Aliyev appointed his son prime minister on Monday, in a move seen as a precursor to Ilham Aliyev running for the presidency in his own right.
But insiders said Ilham, a 41-year-old oil executive who has never held high government office, cannot sit back if he is to realise his father's ambition of creating the former Soviet Union's first political dynasty.
The first challenge is to win in presidential elections scheduled for October 15, though with the opposition vote split and most of the media under the control of the ruling elite, this is a realistic target.
But the toughest test will be whether Ilham can hold together the coalition of political, financial and tribal interest groups built up by his father during his almost 30 years in control of Azerbaijan.
Ilham Aliyev's appointment as prime minister is the result of a "consensus between the political and the financial groups within the ruling elite," said Rashad Rzaquliyev, a political analyst.
But he added: "Sooner or later that consensus will be broken up. I think that will happen a few months after Ilham Aliyev is elected president."
"Sooner or later Ilham Aliyev will have to make changes and get rid of some elements of the old system, which has shown itself to be anachronisitic, and that, without doubt, will lead to a conflict."
"There are figures in the ruling regime who have close ties to the opposition. We have a clan system which is very strong in Azerbaijan and these things could lead to confrontation."
Ilham's problem is that he has always been in his father's shadow and he is still dogged by a reputation as a playboy and political lightweight.
His official functions have been modest: as vice-president of the state oil company, President of Azerbaijan's National Olympic Committee, and head of Azerbaijan's delegation to the Council of Europe in Strasbourg.
Now this unproven politician could find himself in a test of wills with members of his father's ruling circle who are older and wilier than him and have huge resources behind them, say analysts.
These circles include groups which control the police, army, customs revenues and huge commercial monopolies and figures like Ramiz Mekhtiyev, the influential head of the presidential administration.
With his authority and mastery of political intrigue, Aliyev senior kept these groups in line, but his son is not known for possessing these qualities.
Anar Mamedkhanov, a deputy in Azerbaijan's parliament and long-standing associate of Ilham's, said he is up to the job.
Ilham Aliyev's successes in the tasks entrusted to him -- achieving sporting success, successful co-operation with western oil companies and representing the country in Strasbourg -- speak for themselves, he said.
"What more is there that you can do to prove that you are an able politician?," he said. "Ilham Aliyev has not made a single political mistake or miscalculation."
"(Russian President Vladimir) Putin, in the course of three months, when no one even knew who he was, became the most popular politician in Russia and beat his opponents in the elections with a landslide."
"I see no reason why Ilham Aliyev can't do the same here. And unlike Putin, he has already been very well-known here for years now."
But Rasim Musabekov, another political analyst, said he was not convinced.
"The elite has settled on Ilham Aliyev as necessary to prevent a split and possible chaos but how that will work out we cannot say," he said.
"Until now he has not had any major government responsibility entrusted to him. There is a lot of doubt that Ilham Aliyev will want to devote as much time to state affairs and to securing power as his father did."
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