#6570 #6571
#7 - JRL 6569
From: "J. Rohozinska-Michalska" <joanna.rohozinska@ipgate.pl>
Subject: Re: 6565-The Prague Racket
Date: Sun, 24 Nov 2002
J. Rohozinska-Michalska
Historian/Former Director Belarus Programme for Freedom House
(N.B. The opinions expressed are the writer's and in no way reflect those of
Freedom House)
Mr. Laughland rather misses the point when he suggests that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenka should be alternately pitied and applauded for having the gumption of standing up to the Western bullies. There is little new in the statement that big western powers frequently coerce smaller, weaker states to do their bidding - or buy their military hardware. It is also true that Russia is far from being a model of democratic virtues while the West casts a blind eye what can most delicately be called Russia's shortcomings. True too is that President Lukashenka is a popular leader in his country; the OSCE not recognising the 2001 presidential elections as free and fair notwithstanding. However, a little perspective is in order.
President Lukashenka is simply a dictator. Since being popularly elected in 1994 he has systematically dismantled the mechanisms of checks and balances to presidential power and concentrated all power in the hands of the executive - essentially his own. His policies may have spared Belarus from the severe shocks and hardships that rocked other post-Soviet states but the question is at what cost? The relative stability has been achieved by maintaining the country in a state of suspended animation, which cannot continue indefinitely. And it is doubtful that additional hardships, such as heating fuel shortages, will chill the air in the presidential palace.
Since Lukashenka is such a man of the people then there is no reason he shouldn't share the burdens experienced by his co-nationals. Belarusians need visas to travel to almost every European country. They are frequently denied visas because there is a high risk that they will not want to return home, since cleaning toilets with a doctorate degree abroad is more profitable and has a greater future than working in one's specialisation at home. Of course this is assuming that one can raise the money needed to travel to the capital and apply for a visa. The majority of Lukashenka's citizen cannot.
If various human rights and opposition groups tend to exaggerate the level of oppression it is because the very plain truth is often not sexy enough for anyone to pay attention to. Given the fact that most westerners have no idea where Belarus is it is unlikely that the country would get any attention at all. Wages, which in the countryside are approximately USD 7, being paid in potatoes, if at all and lack of running water in homes don't quite tend to grab international headlines. And, contrary to Mr. Laughland's assertions, the charges levelled against the President aren't quite that absurd - just because they are unsubstantiated. Hitler never signed any orders either.
The point remains that opposition figures have disappeared without a trace and given the level of control the President exercises (of which he is very proud) it is not a far stretch to suspect he had a hand in it. This is aside from testimony directly implicating the president. Whether it was four or fourteen who disappeared seems less important than the fact of their disappearances. Recently passed legislation regulating religions is hardly the model of tolerance and speaking Belarusian to a policeman can indeed result with a knock on the head since it is considered politically provocative. There is a low, constant buzz of oppression, though perhaps more difficult to pinpoint is no less destructive to the social fibre.
It is said that people get the leader they deserve. True that Belarus' citizens chose their President but choice implies that there were clear options. Lukashenka's core supporters are over 50, live in rural areas and have a low level of education - as elsewhere their votes are conservative and they fear change. Moreover, the second World War continues to be used as a benchmark for the quality of life. In response to the question: "How is life?" a common is answer is: "Bad, bad - but it was worse during the war". Though independent media does exist state-controlled media, which is little more than propaganda for the regime, penetrates everywhere. After several years (not counting the preceding decades of Soviet propaganda) people who have only the faintest notion of the concepts of market economy, democracy, etc. have learned to fear them.
Most importantly one must remember that President Lukashenka does not subscribe to any ideology. He just as readily bans demonstrations by the Communists as by the nationalists. It is not a matter of being anti-NATO or pro-independent but of survival by any means necessary and at whatever costs - mainly at the cost of Belarus' citizens. As a consequence of his policy of retaining the status quo Belarus has become an impoverished isolated pariah in the middle of modern Europe. In the long run President Lukashenka is a destabilising element. When he eventually leaves power he will be leaving a country in shambles, one facing far more serious reforms and social dislocation and with no native force capable of taking over. The removal of the dictator will not solve Belarus' problems, but it will at least give the country a chance to start collecting itself. Any support for this regime and its leader(s) is reminiscent of reports from the Soviet Union over seventy years ago praising the true workers' paradise. It is a dangerous fiction and one particularly perilous for the citizens of Belarus.
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