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Eastern approaches: Ukraine's slim hopes
By Eric Johnson
PRAGUE, Czech Republic, Aug. 12 (UPI) -- Unlike the Ukraine military's air catastrophe last year, plenty of photographers were on hand to record all the gory details of the recent air-show disaster near the city of L'viv. They captured images of a flaming jet crashing into a crowd, body parts on a bloody runway, and faces of shocked survivors.
The images snapped July 27 at the world's deadliest air-show disaster focused international attention on Ukraine's air force and rekindled doubts about competency raised last fall when, unseen by photographers, a Ukrainian missile, fired accidentally, downed a Russian passenger jet over the Black Sea.
Now, those raw color photos and lingering doubts are haunting Ukraine leaders as they knock on the door of the West.
Eleven years after emerging as an independent offspring of the dissolved Soviet Union, Ukraine is seeking full-fledged membership in the NATO military alliance. The Kiev government announced earlier this year a commitment to a "European way of development" and, in the aftermath of Sept 11, tying its security interests to the West.
But if, as it seems, the military's international image has been tarnished by competency questions and civilian deaths -- 85 Ukrainians killed at the air show, 78 mainly Israelis dead in the jet shoot-down -- the NATO door could remain closed for years to come.
The latest tragedy was incredibly ill timed for the Kiev government's aspirations. Just three weeks before the Su-27 jet crashed during an aerobatics maneuver at Sknyliv airfield, NATO Secretary General Lord George Robertson had visited the Ukraine capital to discuss the membership bid. He met with officials including Defense Minister Volodymyr Shkydchenko and Foreign Minister Anatoliy Zlenko.
Robertson displayed cautious optimism, praising Ukraine's military brass for cooperating with NATO in destroying land mines and taking steps toward modernizing and reforming its 400,000-strong army.
In a speech, Robertson said talks with Kiev over the past five years have progressed from "declarations to frank and, at times, tough exchanges." He said that was proof of a "mature and constructive" relationship, and that Ukraine would be invited to the alliance's summit in November, where enlargement with Eastern countries will be discussed.
Ukraine President Leonid Kuchma pledged to do "everything possible" to join the alliance and integrate with the West. Foreign minister Anatoli Zlenko said Ukraine "considers NATO as a basis of the future European and global system of collective security. We want to contribute to this system, and we are ready to assume the burden of responsibility."
But is the Ukraine military trustworthy?
One voice of doubt comes from Oleksandr Sushko, an analyst with Ukraine's Center for Peace, Conversion and Foreign Policy, which is supported by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung foundation, the German Free Democrat party think tank. He argues that "a lack of trust" by the West toward the Kiev government will keep Ukraine out of NATO for at least the next decade.
"Those in the West who have seriously thought about Ukraine's (NATO membership) proposal are concerned with the question if Ukraine becomes a 'Trojan horse' of NATO," Sushko said. "Decisions in NATO are taken by consensus, whereas cooperation is based on mutual trust of the member-states.
"What is the present-day level of mutual trust between Ukraine and NATO countries?" he asked. "It is evidently low."
Last week in Moscow, commentator Alexander Golts wrote in the Ezhenedelny Journal that the air-show crash, the missile disaster and the 2000 sinking of Russia's Kursk submarine, which claimed 118 Russian sailors' lives, all stem from the same problem: The inability of post-Soviet countries to "sensibly maintain the giant arms legacy bestowed on them by the Soviet Union."
Golts also noted that, just over a decade ago, the Soviet countries were prepared to wage simultaneous wars against NATO and China.
Even before the air-show crash, Robertson diplomatically expressed doubts about Ukraine's worthiness. He said if the government is "not serious about sustained reform, NATO's efforts will simply be a waste of everybody's time, energy and money."
Robertson wants big reforms before Ukraine joins, including the downsizing the bloated armed forces, improving staff training and upgrading equipment to western standards.
Presumably, a reformed military would contain adequate protection to prevent future missile mistakes and air-show tragedies.
Officially, Kiev leaders blamed the air-show crash on pilot error. But one of the two pilots who safely ejected before the jet plowed into spectators defended himself on television last week, citing faulty equipment as the real cause.
No matter who or what deserves blame, though, the fact remains that 163 civilians were killed in Ukrainian weapons mishaps in less than a year. It's not a track record that engenders trust.
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