#6
Rossiyskie Vesti
July 25, 2002
BONAPARTISM A LA RUSSE
The center-left and nationalist political niches are vacant
Author: Igor Dmitriev
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
AN INTERVIEW WITH VYACHESLAV IGRUNOV, LEADING POLITICAL CONSULTANT, DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE DUMA COMMITTEE FOR CIS AFFAIRS, AND DIRECTOR OF THE HUMANITIES AND APPLIED RESEARCH INSTITUTE. HE DISCUSSES THE OVERALL DISTRIBUTION OF VOTER PREFERENCES AMONG RUSSIA'S EXISTING POLITICAL PARTIES.
Question: What is the overall distribution of voters among political parties: how many of them support the Communist Party, how many prefer social-democratic, right liberal, centrist or nationalist ideology?
Vyacheslav Igrunov: There are two major groups: left wing communist electorate, which is about 30% of voters. Apparently, currently it is splitting and if Seleznev's Rossiia movement manages to find a bright and charismatic leader, they would be able to take 5- 6% of votes away from the Communist Party.
As for centrists, Russian people have always liked traditional czar and subordination to a strong leader. Russians require a master - this is a fair description of another 30%, who will always vote for the party identified with the incumbent regime.
Question: Could you be more specific? In my opinion, United Russia badly lacks color. Do you think the Kremlin is ready to replace it with recently formed Party of Life?
Igrunov: I do not think it will be a replacement. Despite the fact the Putin personally supports the Party of Life, it will be rather difficult to explain to the majority of voters why they should leave United Russia. It seems rather to be a competition between those who was timely able to join that party and those who lost their chance. These two parties are representatives of the same bureaucratic class, which is trying to distribute the electorate. That is why the Party of Life is unlikely to substitute for United Russia, although is they work well, they will be able to take 5-6% of votes away from them.
Question: Well, it is clear about two major parties, the communist and the party of power. What party is third?
Igrunov: Left centrists - this group is considerable smaller and it involves 15-20% of voters. The Unity tried to take the left centrist niche, later it was taken by Gorbachev's SDPR party, at present the Yabloko is gradually returning there. Nonetheless, this niche is still vacant: today there is not a single political leader or a serious political party, which could mobilize these 15% of voters and represent their interests in the parliament. Appearance of a bright leader in left centrist wing could create a new political force in Russia.
Question: I still want to get more specific. Are Russian left centrists the same as European social democrats?
Igrunov: We should not compare the Russian and European political schools: our issues are too different although over the past decade we have become closer to Europe. Russian left centrist wing involves not only people congenial to European social liberals, but also intelligentsia, which is concerned about national issues but at the same time pose global super-tasks to themselves.
This is the philosophical essence of Russia which is so much spoken about.
Question: Is a coalition to be formed on this broad and open left centrist field or are all players are to play against one another? If so, who will win?
Igrunov: I think the Russia party is the most interesting player on this field. However, I suppose new players are likely to unexpectedly appear here, for instance, Seleznev, who is connected with the communists but is too left wing for Gorbachev and other competitors.
Question: How many Russians support right-wing liberal ideology?
Igrunov: Approximately 15%. Beside the Union of Right Forces and a considerable part of the Yabloko electorate, these voters are either not engaged at all or support smaller parties. For example, the Liberal Russia takes about 1% of votes.
Question: Which party has most of the 15%? Is Yabloko able to compete with the Union of Right Forces?
Igrunov: Much can change here. Current low ratings of the Union of Right Forces made their sponsors change tactics. Recently, people were so greatly disappointed with Yabloko than none of Russian "money bags" was ready to support this party. At present the situation has changed: disappointment with the Union of Right Forces enabled Yabloko to improve its financial position.
At the same time, Yabloko's ideology greatly faded. Although it is moving in the left direction, it has lost much of its brightness of seven to eight years ago.
Question: Do you think the Union of Right Forces, Yabloko, and Liberal Russia will never come to an agreement?
Igrunov: The Union of Right Forces and Liberal Russia will become serious rivals. There could be an alliance between Liberal Russia and Yabloko, but the former is founded by Berezovsky, who is too great a burden for the not very stable Yabloko. I do not think this alliance is possible.
An alliance between Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces is also unrealistic, as Yavlinsky and his team are most unlikely to agree to play second or third fiddle. Besides, Yabloko is moving to the left, as it would be unable to reach the necessary 5% of votes during the elections without picking up some voters on the left. That is why Yabloko is obviously uninterested in an alliance with the Union of Right Forces.
Question: Finally, are the remaining 10% of voters are nationalists? If so, are they still to follow the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia?
Igrunov: So far there are no radical nationalist parties. In fact, much more than 10% of the population are nationalistic. However, simultaneously, some of these people support either the communist ideology or the present power. Pure 10% may be conditionally called pro-fascist.
Growth of aggressive xenophobia has been very intensive lately: over a half of the population are xenophobic. Before, Zhirinovsky attracted most of them, however, at present he has lost his charisma and is able to collect no more than 5-6% of votes. Appearance of a new bright political leader could cause appearance of a radical nationalist party, which would attract all electorate at this flank.
Question: Regional elections provide clear evidence of "managed democracy". Naturally, during federal elections the Kremlin will try to control the situation even more strictly. How many victorious parties do you think the Kremlin will want to have?
Igrunov: I agree that currently Russian democracy is easy to manage. This way or that the Kremlin radically influences the course of elections and the number of parties will greatly depend on the Kremlin's decision.
At the same time, top-level politics still resists being managed. I know some tycoons who do not like the simplicity of the scheme and oppose the Kremlin in order to increase political diversity. I suppose there are quite a few politicians who would like to use this opposition.
Question: What is the range between demands of minimalists and pluralists?
Igrunov: Extreme minimalists think Russia needs three to four political parties: communists, the pro-government, and the right wing. As for the fourth party, there are different opinions: some believe it should be a puppet party in order to accumulate nationalist votes; others think it may be some intermediate party.
I do not think there are pluralists in our country, while serious political scientists think that seven to nine political parties would be enough.
Question: Are you optimistic about development of political democracy in our country?
Igrunov: Undoubtedly. I think the current period of managed democracy is inevitable. It should be taken into account that we are emerging from a society without any traditions of political participation. Bonapartism is the only state of such a society, and can be a transition period either to further dictatorship or democracy. I believe Russia is more inclined to a democratic system.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )
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