#6334 #6335
[Second Issue of the Day]
#5
Vremya MN
July 2, 2002
A FAMILY SCENE
Putin versus Yeltsin's Family: who will win?
Author: Leonid Radzikhovsky
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
WHAT DOES PUTIN HAVE AGAINST ANATOLY CHUBAIS, THE SMARTEST AND MOST CYNICAL POLITICIAN IN RUSSIA? SURELY HE DOESN'T BELIEVE THAT NONSENSE ABOUT CHUBAIS AIMING FOR THE PRESIDENCY IN 2008 OR INTENDING TO SUPPORT MIKHAIL KASIANOV IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE OF 2004.
"Are you smart or just cynical?" This phrase of Vladimir Putin's is going to be remembered. It isn't hard to see that the question was not asked of Rapoport, second in command at Russian Joint Energy Systems (RJES). The barb was aimed at Anatoly Chubais.
Several days ago the Duma turned down the Cabinet's bill on restructuring the electricity monopoly. In other words, Putin's latest words are the second strike at Chubais.
What does Putin have against the smartest and most cynical politician in Russia? Surely he doesn't believe that nonsense about Chubais aiming for the presidency in 2008 or intending to support Mikhail Kasianov in the presidential race of 2004. Everyone knows that Putin is destined to remain president until 2008. That is clear. What is not clear is what kind of powers this president has and will have in future.
Chubais' problem is that he is one of the central players on the team that supports Putin to such an extent that sometimes observers get the impression that the team holds the president by the hand. Objectively, Chubais is one of the centers of the so-called "Yeltsin's Family". Chubais has the "father of the Family" to blame for his troubles; it is nothing Chubais himself did or said. The matter concerns Boris Yeltsin's recent statements in Belarus. When Yeltsin opened his mouth, Putin found himself facing a choice: let it pass, or make a response.
Putin responded. At his news conference. Unfortunately, cold politeness is a poor weapon against Yeltsin - and no weapon at all against the Family. Yeltsin, the father of Russian capitalism and a former secretary of a Communist Party regional committee, knows that personnel and finances decide everything. The Family (i.e. a group of oligarchs plus a group of politicians with the right connections) is the real second center of power in Russia. The center remains intact. Putin is not going to wield real power as long as that center remains.
When everything is tranquil, the problem is not noticeable. Yeltsin, however, decided to play rough - and Putin had to react.
Yeltsin's guard is considerable. Oleg Deripaska and Chubais are not business allies, to put it mildly. The guard also includes the absolutely unnoticeable Valery Okulov, the notorious Roman Abramovich, liberal ministers... and Alexander Lukashenko. All this doesn't worry the old advocate of the system of checks and balances. He knows one thing, the thing that counts - these men need him because all together, they are a force. Individually, each of them is nothing or close to nothing. As always in politics, they are united by one consideration alone - they have something (or someone) to be allies against. Against Putin, of course.
In the Family, Chubais plays the part of the eldest and smartest son. He is more independent of Yeltsin than anyone else. At the same time, Chubais is too independent a figure - which automatically generates friction, which in its turn doesn't make him a suitable component of the power hierarchy. It means that he is objectively against the hierarchy. It follows that he needs support to be able to withstand the pressure. Outwardly, this support is provided by the Union of Right Forces. In fact, it is provided by the Family.
This is the tragedy of the Union of Right Forces. This liberal party is inseparable from Yeltsin's oligarchy, from the wildest period of the Yeltsin era. Hence its constant reminiscences about its happy "boyhood" under Yeltsin, of the feudal liberty of the past - remembered as the time of democracy and free speech. Hence Nemtsov's comical attacks on Putin, when he calls the president "a mixture of Prokhanov and the Union of Right Forces".
The stand-off between Putin and the Family will continue. Sharp blows are not Putin's style. Whom should the people support - Putin or the Family? From the point of view of the national interest, that is. The answer should be clear. The nation needs a draw. This stand-off (when it is tranquil) is one of the guarantees of democracy in Russia. To be more exact, this stand-off is what plays the role of democracy, division of powers, and civil society. We do not have any other substitutes, for the time being.
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