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ANALYSIS-Ukraine breaks with leftist past, fails to
move on
By Elizabeth Piper
KIEV, April 3 (Reuters) - Ukrainian reformers broke the Communists' grip on parliament and reminded President Leonid Kuchma of his unpopularity in Sunday's general election, but the resulting hung parliament rules out rapid reforms, analysts say.
The vote underscored Ukraine's division between an industrial, Russian-speaking east that backs the Communist Party and the president, and a Ukrainian-speaking, nationalist west that supports reformist ex-Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko.
Analysts said the election brought enough nationalists and reformers into parliament to end the Communists' stranglehold on the legislature but left Kuchma able to thwart pressure for rapid change and stick to his conservative approach.
Ukraine's veteran leader, widely accused of failing to take robust action to stop widespread corruption and end economic stagnation, will be unable to fulfil his goal of changing the constitution to secure a third term in office.
But because the current constitution gives the president the upper hand over parliament, he will be able to stay in power for two more years, while legislators position themselves for the next presidential race rather than set a radical agenda.
"Despite tremendous pressure on the part of the authorities, the people of Ukraine demonstrated their choice for honesty, professionalism and patriotism," said Boris Tarasyuk, a former foreign minister and director of the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation.
Many of Ukraine's 49 million people voted for change, showing they were unhappy with the status quo. "But until Kuchma has gone, change will be gradual," Tarasyuk said.
Policies that waver between integration with the expanding European Union, and close ties to Russia, Kiev's former imperial and Communist master, between reform and vested business interests, will continue to define Ukrainian politics, he added.
HUNG PARLIAMENT
Western officials had expressed the hope that Ukraine, a fertile, mineral-rich state the size of France, would move to combat corruption, implement stalled reforms and create a stable buffer zone for the European Union.
But the pro-Western reformers fell short of their goals, and Yushchenko could do no better than equal the number of seats won by Kuchma's allies.
"There will be interest in reforms, but the oligarchs (powerful business interests) still have representation," Tarasyuk said.
Kuchma, who won his first term in 1994 when he promised a closer relationship with Moscow, is expected to keep a firm grip on the levers of power.
"With the president still in charge of foreign policy, we will continue to see more pro-Russian policy," Tarasyuk said. "But the Communists no longer hold the trump card. So today one can definitely say that the parliament is more pro-European."
Analysts said Kuchma was likely to escape the threat of impeachment as the opposition had failed to secure a parliamentary majority.
But because his allies had also fallen short of a majority, he would be unable to change the constitution to extend his mandate and might fail to secure future immunity from prosecution.
"The worst is yet to come for Kuchma. He can still block the impeachment procedure, but he did not get a majority and has got the same parliament that irritated him last time," said Mykhailo Pohrebynsky, head of Kiev Institute for Political Research.
"He has no chance of getting a third term."
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