Johnson's Russia List #6148 21 March 2002 davidjohnson@erols.com A CDI Project www.cdi.org [Note from David Johnson: 1. The Scotsman (UK): Magnetic North Pole heads west for Russia. 2. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review. 3. Moscow Times: Nabi Abdullaev, Top Court Refuses to Release Sutyagin. 4. Reuters: Russia needs time to fill U.S. poultry gap. 5. Parlamentskaya Gazeta: Leonid Chirkov, NEW PASSIONS: FINANCIAL-INDUSTRIAL GROUPS ASPIRE TO POWER. Industrialists coming to power in the regions. 6. Kommersant: Yelena Vansovich, LIFE IS BETTER, LIFE IS HEALTHIER. The Heath Care Ministry sums up 2001. 7. AP: Deaths Outstrip Births in Russia. 8. Moscow News: Funds Vanishing in Chechnya. German journalists look into the theft of budget allocations for the rehabilitation of Chechnya. 9. Moscow News: Lenin Library To Go Digital. 10. William Flemming: Correction re. 6145-Yanov/Correction. 11. Financial Times (UK) letter: Padma Desai, Gerashchenko successor's hard choices. 12. strana.ru: Michael Stedman, Charting a Course for Mighty Volga's Future. International project seeks to keep the river Russia's "lifeblood." 13. Vremya Novostei: Viktor Khamrayev, We Have Survived. Now We're Going to Live. The government needed growth in consumer demand. 14. Wall Street Journal: Guy Chazan, Foul Cartoon Slacker Masyanya Takes Young Russians by Storm. 15. eurasianet.org: Jeffrey Silverman, KIDNAPPING OF CIS PEACEKEEPERS RIVETS ATTENTION ON ABKHAZIA VOLATILITY. 16. Los Angeles Times: Robyn Dixon, A Matzo Airlift and More. Religion: Importing the kosher bread is part of one ultra-Orthodox group's efforts to revive Judaism in the former Soviet Union. 17. Conference announcement: Wilson Center's Kennan Institute to Hold Conference on the U.S. Assessments of the Soviet and Post-Soviet Russian Economy.] ******* #1 The Scotsman (UK) 21 March 2002 Magnetic North Pole heads west for Russia THE North Magnetic Pole could soon leave Canada, swing north of Alaska and eventually wind up in Russia, according to a Canadian scientist. While the magnetic pole hassteadily drifted for decades, it has speeded up in recent years and could exit Canadian territory as soon as 2004, Larry Newitt, of the Geological Survey of Canada, told CNN. If the pole keeps to its present course, it will pass north of Alaska and arrive in Siberia in a half century, but Mr Newitt cautioned that such predictions could prove wrong. "Although it has been moving north or north-west for 100 years, it is not going to continue in that direction forever. Its speed has increased considerably during the past 25 years," he said. The pole can jump around considerably each day, but migrates on average about six to 25 miles each year. The daily movements are caused by charged particles emitted by the sun. The annual drift is due to the constantly fluctuating currents in the earth's molten core, which produces the magnetic field. The North Magnetic Pole is distinct from the North Terrestrial Pole, the fixed point that marks the axis of the turning planet. At present, the magnetic pole is 600 miles from the geographic one. Because the magnetic pole lies in the Arctic Ocean, scientists trying to pinpoint its exact location must visit in spring. "We always do this kind of work in May. We need frozen conditions so that we can land an airplane anywhere on ice or snow, but not so cold that it is impossible to work outdoors," Mr Newitt said. ******* #2 ORT Review www.ortv.ru Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu) Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy at Boston University HEADLINES, Wednesday, March 20, 2002 - Crimea's Court of appeals has postponed the decision on the verdict of the Simferopol Court to reject Leonid Grach's registration for the parliamentary elections until March 27th, 4 days before the elections. In the meanwhile, Grach can continue his campaign. - Ukraine's Ivano-Frankov City Court has declared that the veterans of the SS Galich fascist division are heroes of the war for freedom and independence. Ukrainian Prime Minister Anatoly Kinakh supported the decision. - The four Russian peacekeepers who were kidnapped in Georgia's Zugdidi region last week have been freed. In return, the kidnappers demanded the release of two rebels, Georgian residents. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov ordered Russian soldiers to prevent such incidents in the future. - State Duma deputies approved the appointment of Sergei Ignatiev as the new Chairman of the Central Bank. - The Pobeda [Victory] Committee met in Moscow to discuss plans for the celebration of the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II. - Minister of Trade and Economic Development German Gref announced that some progress has been made in the discussions of the US tariffs on imported steel. Russia's quota for imports will be increased to 26 percent. - In Moscow, the development of the television serial genre was discussed at today's plenum of the Union of Cinematographers. - Large-scale disturbances organized by the supporters of parliament deputy Azimbek Baknazarov, who is in prison on charges of abusing his privileges, continue in Southern Kyrgyzstan. A number of local policemen have been wounded in the clashes. - Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov met with directors of the national oil enterprises. After the meeting he announced that Russia will not increase oil exports over the next three months. - In Grozny's Leninsk region, unidentified men shot two local residents -- a mother and a daughter -- as well as a policeman who rushed to their aid. Five other policemen and a prosecutor were wounded by a landmine that exploded when they came to investigate the scene of the crime. A second landmine exploded later; no one was injured. - President Putin met with Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to discuss military reforms and the armaments program through 2010. - The Supreme Court of the Russian Federation is reviewing scientist Igor Suryagin's appeal of the espionage sentence he received from the Kaluzhsky Oblast Court. - President Putin will chair the discussion of the development of science in Russia at today's joint meeting of the State Council, the Security Council, and the recently established Council on Science. No less than 4 percent of the national budget will be allocated for science and research by 2010. ******* #3 Moscow Times March 21, 2002 Top Court Refuses to Release Sutyagin By Nabi Abdullaev Staff Writer The Supreme Court on Wednesday rejected an appeal to release researcher Igor Sutyagin while he waits for the FSB to reinvestigate his spying case. Sutyagin's lawyers said they would file a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights. Igor Sutyagin, a researcher at the prestigious U.S.A. and Canada Institute, was charged with treason in October 1999 for allegedly divulging classified information about the readiness of Russian nuclear arms to British company Future Alternative. The company was closed shortly after Sutyagin's arrest. Sutyagin and his colleagues at the institute say he had no access to secret documents and obtained his information from publicly available sources. The Kaluga regional court ruled in December that the indictment presented by the Federal Security Service was too vague and sent it back to investigators. Supreme Court Judge Zyamil Galiullin threw out the request to free Sutyagin after a one-hour-long closed hearing. Sutyagin's head lawyer, Boris Kuznetsov, slammed the decision. "Hypocritically, the court defends Sutyagin's rights and at the same time keeps him in prison," Kuznetsov told reporters. "The Kaluga court could summon enough conscience not to sentence Sutyagin and, in the meantime, couldn't collect enough courage to acquit him." Sutyagin, held in a Kaluga prison for more than two years, refused to travel to Moscow to attend the trial Wednesday because of his poor health, Kuznetsov said. He said Sutyagin would find an easy victory in the European Court of Human Rights. Sergei Kovalyov, a liberal State Duma deputy and former ombudsman, said more Russians needed to file complaints to the European court. "Russian justice will only change when the number of European court decisions on complaints from Russian citizens reaches a critical mass," he said. Sutyagin has six months to appeal to the Strasbourg-based court. Both Kuznetsov and Kovalyov said the Supreme Court's refusal was politically motivated. "There may have been little politics in the Sutyagin case at the beginning, but these days purely political decisions are being made because the very prestige and dignity of the FSB depend on them," Kuznetsov said. "It is easy to influence post-Soviet courts -- they understand the smallest hints from above," Kovalyov said, referring to President Vladimir Putin and his former career as a KGB spy. Galiullin could not be reached for comment, and nobody picked up the telephone at the Supreme Court's press office Wednesday afternoon. Courts will no longer be able to send cases back for further investigation after July 1. Under the new Criminal Procedural Code, which goes into effect then, a court will have to acquit the defendant if it deems the prosecution's evidence insufficient. ******* #4 Russia needs time to fill U.S. poultry gap By Aleksandras Budrys MOSCOW, March 21 (Reuters) - Russia will find no immediate substitute for currently banned poultry meat imports from the United States, Russian producers and importers said. "We can increase output, but we will not be able to feed all Russia immediately," Andrei Lapkin, general director of the Yaroslavsky broiler plant in the central Russian Yaroslavl region told Reuters. Nikolai Galitsky, executive director of the Petelinskaya poultry plant near Moscow, said: "To have sufficient poultry meat, we all must double our output, but I can't see how we can do it soon without strong government support." Russia was the largest importer of U.S. poultry, taking nearly 40 percent of shipments from the United States, until Moscow imposed a ban from March 10, citing food safety concerns. Last year Russia imported 1.36 million tonnes of poultry meat, including around one million tonnes from the United States, while domestic producers supplied only 860,000 tonnes, according to the Agriculture Ministry. U.S. producers deny their chicken is unsafe and have lobbied hard to have the ban lifted, but more than a week of talks in Moscow have brought little progress so far. The trade row has coincided with U.S. tariffs on steel imports, although neither side has linked the two issues. Importers of U.S. poultry said meat produced by Russia or imported from countries other than the United States could not compete with their own supply. "Our meat is sold mainly in the regions where people can't afford buying more expensive Russian or Brazilian poultry," said Albert Davleyev, head of the U.S. Poultry and Egg Export Council office in Moscow. BUSH'S LEGS U.S. producers consider chicken breasts their main product on the domestic market. Chicken legs and thighs are treated essentially as by-products and are sold in Russia at prices below those of Russian poultry. Cheap U.S. poultry, sold frozen from cartons at outdoor street markets, is known in Russia as "Bush's legs" because the trade began in the early 1990s under President George Bush. Other countries will aim to boost exports to Russia, where their share of the market is tiny, with Brazilian poultry exports a meagre 34,000 tonnes in 2001. Romania's farm ministry has advised producers to try to sell their 60,000 tonne poultry meat surplus to Russia. Davleyev of the U.S. export group said he saw little chance of Russia producing sufficient poultry in the near future. "Simple arithmetic shows that even if Russia keeps raising its poultry output by 15 percent a year, as in the last two years, it can meet its demand only sometime around 2010," he said. "And thbat doesn't take into account other factors...like high profit taxes which, in our opinion, do not favour the development of the sector." Russia has introduced a 24 percent profit tax on poultry plants from this year. Russian producers say they want protection from cheap imports, but favour quotas and tariffs rather than a ban. The Agriculture Ministry has suggested raising import tariffs and imposing quotas, but such measures would take time. The government pannel responsible for customs tariffs has not yet decided when it will examine a ministry proposal to raise the poultry import tariff to 30 percent from 25. Setting import quotas would require legislative changes as Russian law permits import quotas only for developing countries. ******* #5 Parlamentskaya Gazeta March 21, 2002 NEW PASSIONS: FINANCIAL-INDUSTRIAL GROUPS ASPIRE TO POWER Industrialists coming to power in the regions. Author: Leonid Chirkov [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] MOSCOW IS NO LONGER THE CENTER OF LARGE-SCALE BUSINESS IN RUSSIA. REGIONAL ECONOMY IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING, AND AT THE SAME TIME MORE AND MORE FORMER ENTREPRENEURS AND INDUSTRIALISTS BECOME POLITICIANS. To all appearances, over the past several years Moscow has stopped being the center of Russian business. Of course, oil and gas were produced in Siberia, but all the questions connected with them were solved in the capital. Other industries were either in deep crisis, or languished in poverty, which did not interest businessmen. When the economic situation improved, it turned out that provincial industrial objects also had value, and then a class of new regional magnates. Not only Muscovites, but also heads of large local plants were among them. At first, their economic interests were represented by "pure politicians", which satisfied local businessmen. However, the situation has started changing. For example, in the Novosibirsk region two previous governors, their deputies and deputies of the Duma did not manage to get into the number of local law-makers. This means a lot: renewal of regional bodies of power is not declarative. And this is not always prompted by situational election considerations, as, for example, change of all deputies of the governor in the Krasnoyarsk region. The matter concerns deeper processes. In many regions, all politics is concentrated around questions of economic interaction of these or those financial-industrial groups, and in the end - around distributing property. For instance, in the Irkutsk region they have to look for a balance of interests between YUKOS, RusAl, MDM-Group and TNC; in the Krasnoyarsk region between Norilsk Nickel, RusAl, MDM-Group and the alliance of Rusneft and Mezhprombank. But in the Lipetsk region the opposition between representatives of the older generation of politicians, headed by the present governor, and heads of the largest plant of the region - the Novo-Lipetsk Metallurgical company - has been postponed yet. However that may be, the situation in the regions leads to active exchange of staff between economic and political "circles" of power. For example, in the Perm region the largest faction in the Legislative Assembly represents a union of local entrepreneurs. It is noteworthy that governor Alexander Khloponon of the Taimyr region and governor Boris Zolotarev of the Evenkia region used to be entrepreneurs. How does the fact that industrialists and managers are coming to power influence life of this or that region? In a number of cases this leads to improving the social situation. Tax revenues increase, since people who have achieved success in business know how to gather taxes, as well as how to secure development of local enterprises. Meanwhile, the situation is not always like this. When balance of forces changes often, regions suffer crisis after crisis, and even qualified crisis- managers cannot control them. In the Krasnoyarsk region the elections to the Legislative Assembly last year created a harsh polarity in the local parliament. The movement "Ours", the blocks of Anatoly Bykov and Alexander Lebed, the Northern Party of Alexander Khloponin look like battlefields for fighting for the post of governor at next year elections. Even the bravest political scientists cannot predict who will win. Beside the acting gvernor and head of the Legislative Assembly Alexander Uss, someone of the financial-industrial group may also run for the post. The attitude of financial-industrial groups toward the political future of their regions did not avoid attention of the federal center. Not everywhere the situation is taken by voters and regional authorities in the same way. We still remember the scandalous elections in the Primorye region with lots of contradictions. The central power is now making a placatory impact on regional passions. Russian voters firmly believe that the leaders of the country can establish order in each region. However, this is not always true. It is clear that financial-industrial groups, if they want influence political life in their regions, should aspire to grater transparency of their actions, proving that they are not just pumping out resources. In this respect, shift toward public politics will make many financial-industrial groups treat their image more seriously. Especially since there is enough mud-slinging in the provinces. Besides, we should take into account the risk of weak governors appearing, and weak regional legislatures, trying to maneuver between different groups. Especially when regional leaders do not have an overwhelming majority in elections, as in the Irkutsk region and Chuvashia, for example. Nevertheless, it is clear that the process of changing regional power is picking up speed despite all obstacles. And gradually party- economic assets, which regional power was reminiscent of some two- three years ago, are turning into a cohort of political managers, rather alike top-managers of leading companies. Is it good or bad? It is hard to say. Perhaps, this is just another stage of the development of the Russian state system. And the very notion "politics in the regions" is acquiring new meaning, while the stage of intrigues is passing into the stage of concrete actions. (Translated by Daria Brunova) ******* #6 Kommersant March 21, 2002 LIFE IS BETTER, LIFE IS HEALTHIER The Heath Care Ministry sums up 2001 Author: Yelena Vansovich [from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html] THE BOARD OF THE HEATH CARE MINISTRY MET YESTERDAY. SUMMING UP 2001, HEALTH MINISTER YURI SHEVCHENKO ANNOUNCED THAT THE YEAR "WAS A TURNING POINT FOR THE RUSSIAN HEATH CARE SYSTEM." HE MEANT THAT THE HEALTH OF RUSSIAN CITIZENS HAD FINALLY IMPROVED. Health Care Minister Yuri Shevchenko reports some relative success THE BOARD OF THE HEATH CARE MINISTRY MET YESTERDAY. SUMMING UP 2001, HEALTH MINISTER YURI SHEVCHENKO ANNOUNCED THAT THE YEAR "WAS A TURNING POINT FOR THE RUSSIAN HEATH CARE SYSTEM." HE MEANT THAT THE HEALTH OF RUSSIAN CITIZENS HAD FINALLY IMPROVED. BUT WHETHER OR NOT IT HAS IMPROVED, THE DEATH RATE IN RUSSIA HAS BEEN DOUBLE THE BIRTH RATE OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS. According to the data compiled by the Health Care Ministry, over 2 million Russian citizens die every year. The death rate has fallen somewhat in only 19 regions. Deaths from accidents and poisoning are particularly frequent. Since 1993, Russia has been recording 200 accidental deaths per 100,000 citizens. Accidents and poisoning account for 50% of male deaths and 30% of deaths among women in their prime. According to Shevchenko, the state of health of health of Russian citizens leaves much to be desired, first and foremost because citizens do not take proper care of themselves. Only 12% regularly take part in sports and athletic activities. About 30 million are alcoholics; almost 2 million are drug addicts; and over 45% (almost 60 million people) are smokers. Shevchenko said that beer commercials were "quite disgusting, urging young men to lead a disgusting way of life"; but consumption of hard liquor in Russia has fallen by 13%. At the same time, there is more and more heart disease, alcoholism, drug addiction, and AIDS. Shevchenko likes the fact that young people have a healthier lifestyle than their elders (in terms of food and alcohol consumption). The minister calls drug addiction "an extension of international terrorism" and says that it was introduced to Russia in order to weaken Russia. Shevchenko commented on a number of positive trends as well. According to the Health Care Ministry, deaths in childbirth declined by 24% in 2001, and 52,000 more children were born than the year before. The minister attributes all these positive trends to improvement of the economic situation in Russia, and to the fact that "the amount of funding from the federal budget allocated for health care rose by 68% against in 1999." Unfortunately, wages in this sector remain "humiliatingly low". The Health Care Ministry says its major problems are the prices of pharmaceuticals and shortages of personnel. According to the minister, rising prices are just an attempt by pharmaceutical producers and distributors to put pressure on the government, ino order to get the 10% VAT cancelled. He advised Russian citizens to invest in proper meals, not in pharmaceuticals, because it is easier to prevent illness than treat it afterwards. In conclusion, Shevchenko outlined several strategic directions. The program of medical-social insurance has to be developed, and health care funding should be increased. (Translated by A. Ignatkin) ******** #7 Deaths Outstrip Births in Russia March 20, 2002 MOSCOW (AP) - Deaths in Russia dramatically outstrip the number of births, the country's health minister said Wednesday, blaming heavy smoking and alcohol abuse for low life expectancy rates. Health Minister Yuri Shevchenko said Russians' ``way of life'' is at fault for the country's demographic decline, according to the ITAR-Tass and Interfax news agencies. More than half of Russian adults smoke, and as many as 30 million Russians abuse alcohol, ITAR-Tass reported. Russia has seen one of the world sharpest peacetime population drops since the 1991 Soviet collapse, losing half a million people or more every year for a total of 144 million as of earlier this year. Demographers blame the decline on shriveling birth rates and lower life expectancy linked to crime and worsening health care. Of the more than 2 million Russians who die every year, 600,000 are of working age, according to Health Ministry materials released Wednesday at a news conference. The death rate surpasses the birth rate by 70 percent, Shevchenko said. He urged parliament to pass a bill restricting tobacco and alcohol advertising. ``I don't have anything against beer itself, but the advertising of beer is the advertising of a disgusting way of life, which can lead young people God knows where,'' Shevchenko was quoted as saying. ******* #8 Moscow News March 20-26, 2002 Funds Vanishing in Chechnya By Dmitry Balburov German journalists look into the theft of budget allocations for the rehabilitation of Chechnya The influential German newspapers Frankfurter Allgemeine and Suddeutsche Zeitung have run a series of articles on the current situation in Chechnya. Besides "violations of civil rights" in that Russian region, the articles expose the continuing misappropriation of funds designated for the rehabilitation of Chechnya. One of the German journalists who wrote the articles, FLORIAN HASSEL, talks to MN's Dmitry Balburov. Did you find many "black holes" in Chechnya? Quite a few. But we focused mainly on the public health system - a highly sensitive sector. Uvais Magomadov, who was the republic's health minister in the Koshman administration, was sued on several counts of embezzlement. It seems that the cases have been dropped, for the present head of the Chechen administration Akhmad Kadyrov has decided against replacing the minister. The misappropriation scheme is simple and efficient. Different enterprises in the same sector file requests for funds. Then all the requests are summed up and sent to Moscow. The money received is "put to use" in nonexistent projects. Here is one example. In 2000, the Chechen administration's capital construction directorate applied for 107 million rubles to rebuild healthcare facilities. But a request made several months earlier was for 55 million rubles, supposedly to be used for the same purposes. I have copies of all the documents confirming the requests. Deputy Health Minister Isa Dudayev told us that the minister had forced him to sign the 107 million rubles request. We checked the documents and discovered that the extra 50 million had gone to construction site SU-105 in the town of Salsk. Incidentally, the firm in charge of that site had previously pocketed 25 million rubles intended for the Chechen Ministry of Education. I called Salsk and was told that SU-105 had long been closed. What other interesting things have you found out? Last October, an audit of the state-owned pharmaceutical company Chechenfarmmedtekhnika revealed that the firm had misused a sum equivalent to 1.5 million euros. I made a round of several hospitals and medical centers in Chechnya which, according to documentary evidence, had received large sums to carry our repairs and purchase equipment. I saw for myself that nothing had been done there. We also learned that the Health Ministry had bought 20 ambulances at 470,000 rubles each. (I was told in Grozny that one such vehicle cost 200,000 rubles at most). I looked inside one of them and saw no medical apparatus, which was supposed to have been paid for. The head physician of a hospital told me in private that a medical institution that wanted to get an ambulance from the Health Ministry had to produce a 10,000 ruble bribe. As for other sectors, here is an example. A dry cleaning and laundry service is to be opened in downtown Grozny. The building for it is quite good, but the machinery inside is ancient, imported ages ago from former Czechoslovakia and East Germany. From a private talk with one of the service's executives I learned that the service had had modern equipment, but it had been stolen and sold. The thieves are now waiting for the building to be destroyed or burnt down in the next mopping-up operation, so that they won't have to account for the money earmarked for buying up-to-date equipment. Do you know what astounded me most? The indifference of Russian journalists in Grozny whom we told about our findings. Amazingly, they were not in the least interested. As if the money stolen in Chechnya belonged to Germany and not Russia! ******** #9 Moscow News March 20-16, 2002 Lenin Library To Go Digital By Alexander Korobov Vremya MN Last week a project, Development of Electronic Reader Servicing System, was presented at the Russian State Library (RGB) The U.S.-based Andrew W. Mellon charity foundation donated $1.5 million to the project that will be managed by the British Council Russia office. The project sets ambitious goals. First of all, an electronic catalog of all books published in the past 20 years is to be created. It will comprise approximately one million entries from the 1980-1998 archives of the Russian Book Chamber plus an additional 800,000 from the RGB electronic catalog, maintained since 1998. At stage two, an automated reader service system will be put in place. Over time, anyone will be able to order books through the Internet using the same electronic catalog. Moreover, the reader will know immediately whether the book he needs is currently available at the library. There will also be a music catalog with 380,000 entries. According to the project's authors, it will provide access to a unique collection of music publications. Furthermore, the RGB is converting books into digital format. At present there are approximately 2,000 publications available at the electronic storage facility, which are daily read by 1,200 visitors. Given that the whole library services not more than 5,000 readers a day, the figure is fairly impressive. Against the backdrop of such far-reaching plans, day-to-day operation of the legendary Lenin Library is far more modest. Renovation that began about two years ago has yet to be completed. Recently a part of the hitherto inaccessible stock became available to readers. Progress is impeded by logistical problems. Say, to automate the issuing of books, 249 computers will need to be installed at various sections of the library. Although this year's budget is 40 percent higher that last year's, it is barely enough to keep the library going with no funds left for development. So management has to appeal to charity. ******* #10 Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2002 From: William Flemming Subject: Re: Correction re. 6145-Yanov/Correction I would like to offer a correction to the correction by Alexander Yanov posted on JRL 6145. His comment "A United States of Europe?" may well have been badly mistranslated, but not by The Moscow Times. Indeed the comment never appeared in The Moscow Times. The author seems to have confused Moscow News, which I believe is the English-language partner of Moskovskie Novosti, with The Moscow Times, which is in no way related. Best regards, William Flemming Opinion page editor The Moscow Times ******* #11 Financial Times (UK) 20 March 2002 LETTERS TO THE EDITOR: Gerashchenko successor's hard choices From Prof Padma Desai. Sir, The resignation of Viktor Gerashchenko, the chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, will probably usher in much-needed and long-delayed banking sector reforms in Russia. But difficult policy choices face his successor. The high oil prices in world markets have conferred an embarrassment of riches to the Russian economy in the form of a positive trade balance of Dollars 50bn in 2001 and foreign exchange reserves estimated at Dollars 32bn in January 2002. The central bank has found it difficult to counter the inflationary impact of the foreign exchange inflows by issuing bonds for sterilising the money supply growth because the domestic short-term interest rate, at annualised 25 per cent, is far higher than foreign rates. Such soaking up of cash would therefore be costly. Nor are investors in search of high returns likely to pick up the bonds in view of their experience of the government having unilaterally defaulted its rouble debt in August 1998. As a result, inflation running at a current annualised rate of 18 per cent has contributed to the real appreciation of the rouble, which has cut into the competitive advantage of Russian goods. Does a real devaluation, evidently preferred by the reformers in the government, provide an answer for restoring that advantage? The collapse of the rouble from six to the dollar to 26 on August 17 1998 transformed the relative price advantage in favour of domestic industries contributing to a high gross domestic product growth rate of 8 per cent in 2000. Currently, it will accentuate the inflationary pressures generated by foreign exchange earnings. It will also prevent Russian industry from undertaking genuine cost-cutting measures via efficient energy use, for example. In fact, the continuing surge in Russian oil production has flooded domestic markets with oil supplies, contributed to lower oil prices for domestic users and stalled the pressure for its efficient use. So it is not clear that creating a price advantage by manipulating the exchange rate provides the answer to the urgent problem of the overhaul of Russian industry. Padma Desai, Harriman Professor and Director, Centre for Transition Economies, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, US ******* #12 strana.ru March 20, 2002 Charting a Course for Mighty Volga's Future International project seeks to keep the river Russia's "lifeblood" By Michael Stedman Scientists are preparing to launch a major visionary study of what Russia's greatest waterway may be like a generation from now and how the mighty Volga can best be protected for the good of those living in its basin lands. The 2,300-kilometre artery has fed, watered, moved and powered the lives of more than 40 percent of Russia's population down the years. And to nurture the future of this unique natural resource, multi-disciplinary teams of experts are being assembled for a scientific study of an eco-system effectively linking the northern Baltic and White Seas with the southern Caspian, washing the shores of Iran. It's to keep the great river the "lifeblood of Russia" for those still unborn that the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNESCO has spent the last two years planning a project to plot the waterway's most positive course up to the year 2030. Experts in social and environmental sciences, demographics researchers, legal experts and representatives of cultural organizations are poised with others in associated fields for the launch of a study planned as a blueprint showing how the river and its lands can best be developed. The go-ahead is likely to be announced by a top UNESCO official in May at the Great Rivers 2002 international scientific and industrial forum in Nizhny Novgorod. This will prime the pumps for a science-based study slated for completion by the end of next year and viewed by those behind the plan as a stimulus for potential development projects by big-money investors such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank, and international agencies such as the United Nations Development Program. "This will be a holistic view elaborating compromise," UNESCO science and ecology expert Uli Grabener told The Russian Observer at the agency's Moscow office. "It's looking at balance for best results- how much water is needed for transport, ecology, drinking and energy. It's a science-based vision of what the Volga River Basin should be like for the generation to come, a view of what science can do to facilitate sustainable development." Researchers will be studying a watercourse discharging between 28,000 and 30,000 cubic meters of water every second through a delta of 275 channels covering some 12,000 square kilometers into the landlocked Caspian Sea. This is the end of a journey starting northwest of Moscow in a series of springs rising in the Valdei Hills. As it flows through 33 political and administrative territorial "subjects" of the Russian Federation, the Volga connects by canal to two major bodies of water - one to the Baltic by the Volga-Baltic Waterway and the second linked to the Don River, thence to the Black Sea, the Adriatic and the Mediterranean. It's fed by the Moskva, Oka and Kama rivers as it travels through forests, steppes and arid zones - drainage land in which half of Russia's farmers live and where more than half of Russia's industry is located. And it's the human influence on the river that will most pre-occupy the experts from Russia and abroad during their investigations. They'll be studying waters that have been used through history principally for fishing and navigation, recreation and transport purposes and in modern times for generating electricity via a series of reservoirs and dams down its length. For the river is no longer as nature intended, and books on the Volga speak today of a drop of water now taking months instead of weeks to travel the river's now interrupted course. The water flow is highly-regulated, UNESCO's Grabener notes. "The system's been changed already and we don't plan to turn the clock back," he says. "It doesn't seem realistic to think about removing the dams, but we are looking to make the river work better." Like tackling erosion, sedimentation and inadequate farming methods which have silted up the reservoirs, he says. And massive interference in the lives of the river's prized sturgeon where the river's lower reaches are harnessed by the huge hydro-electric power complex near Volgograd. "The water level is governed by energy demands, not ecological needs," Grabener says. Since Soviet dam builders made their first impressions on the river, he says, sturgeon have been cut off from all but the lowest reaches, their river-long spawning grounds now things of the past. As they may remain. Still, the project planners have set their sights on defining a far better environment for the peoples of the Volga. And the river's unique characteristic of lying within one single country gives the project a special chance of realizing dreams that would be far-fetched if it crossed national borders. It's powered, too, by Russia's massive high-level scientific talent, Grabener says. That talent looks like being tasked now to help deliver community-based results beyond science for the sake of science, or research ending up on a bookshelf. ********* #13 Vremya Novostei March 20, 2002 We Have Survived. Now We're Going to Live The government needed growth in consumer demand By Viktor Khamrayev (therussianissues.com) Russia's social system no longer has any need for the "survival strategy" that the government had been pursuing over the past decade. What is needed now is a social policy that "creates an environment enabling a person to realize him- or herself." This was the objective that Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov defined yesterday (March 19) at a conference of deputy governors overseeing social problems. However, no one at the conference yesterday ventured to guess how many years and how much money would be needed to create such an environment. The conference limited itself to summing up the results of the past year and discussed plans for 2002. In the opinion of Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko, 2001 was "the most stable year" [in recent history]. The average per capita income increased by a third, totaling 2,900 rubles a month. The average salary last year increased by 20% and stood at 3,200 rubles per month. The average pension (throughout the whole of Russia) grew by 21% and practically reached the minimal subsistence level for a pensioner, according to Matviyenko. Besides that, the unemployment level dropped substantially and the strike movement hit a record low. However, Mikhail Kasyanov focused on other statistics. What does not suit him is the following: although Russians' real incomes grew by more than 15% over the past two years, they have still not reached the 1997 level. The proportion of the population with incomes lower than the minimal subsistence level has dropped from 28.1% in 2000 to 27.6% in 2001. But even this, in the prime minister's opinion, is "unacceptably high." Kasyanov is also dissatisfied because the wage arrears problem has come up once again in a number of regions, even though the government steps in quickly with the necessary assistance and is keeping a close eye on the problem. Matviyenko pointed out that only 30 of the 89 regions do not have a wage arrears problem. On his part, Labor Minister Alexander Pochinok gave assurances that his ministry intends to carry out spot checks "to determine and punish those enterprises that were not paying their employees wages and salaries on time." The new Labor Code that became effective on February 1 allows for such "punishment." For each day salaries are delayed, the employer can be subjected to a fine of 1/300 of the sum of the debt. In the event of a 15-day delay, employees have the right not to report to work without declaring a strike. But judging from what is going on, employees are not yet aware that they have such rights. Matviyenko announced that the government had yet to push through another 42 legislative acts before the Labor Code started working at full force. In order to implement the pension reform, the Duma has to pass one single law - on the investment of money earmarked for accumulating pensions. The Duma is expecting to examine the draft of the law in its second reading. Since such a law does not yet exist, the Pension Fund will temporarily invest money in state bonds with a nominal value designated both in rubles and hard currency. The prime minister signed a government decision on this matter yesterday. "We are coming closer to understanding that we must expand our social policy," declared Mikhail Kasyanov, who holds that "the standard of living and consumer demand" now constitute "the chief factor of economic growth." ******** #14 Wall Street Journal March 20, 2002 Foul Cartoon Slacker Masyanya Takes Young Russians by Storm By GUY CHAZAN Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL For years, Russia's corporate elite was haunted by fears of devaluation, default and raids by the tax police. Now, they have something else to worry about: "Masyanya," an Internet cartoon that is the distraction of choice for millions of bored young office workers. A foul-mouthed, pot-smoking slacker living in St. Petersburg, Masyanya has become Russia's answer to "Beavis and Butthead." The cartoon, or multfilm, is a big hit on the Net: Less than five months after the two-minute episodes started appearing online, the creator's Web site, Mult.ru, has been getting 22,000 hits a day. Crudely drawn, with fruity teenage slang, a maniacal giggle and a penchant for drink, drugs and sex, Masyanya commands a large following among Russia's version of Generation X, the 20- and 30-somethings known for their free-wheeling cynicism and total alienation from politics. "They're mainly white-collar workers in Moscow illicitly surfing the Net during office hours," says Oleg Kuvayev, Masyanya's 35-year-old creator. "She reflects the spirit of the times," says Alexander Pliushchev, a newspaper columnist who writes about the Internet. "It's this couldn't-care-less attitude. Like when Masyanya and her boyfriend are stuck in a lift at midnight on New Year's Eve, and the boyfriend says: 'Well, at least let's have sex, then.' That just about sums it up." Masyanya's best lines -- like "Barman, a pint of cognac!" or "Who's this? The boss? Go to hell, boss, I can't deal with you right now" -- are now bandied about in bars and at water coolers. The appearance of a new episode, usually on a Monday morning, can bring office work to a grinding halt. "We all gather round my computer and have a good laugh," says graphic designer Anastasia Samokhina. "We call the bosses, too, but they don't seem to get it. They don't speak her language." That's for sure. Mr. Kuvayev says the director of one St. Petersburg television station will fine any of his staff he catches watching Masyanya at work. For people like Ms. Samokhina, 32, the appeal is simple. "Her slang, her lifestyle, her stupid habits -- she's like a caricature of me, or at least a part of me," she says. Masyanya also symbolizes a lot of what has taken place in Russia since the end of communism, especially the blossoming of youth culture. "Ten years ago, all we did was go to friends' houses and drink tea or vodka," Ms. Samokhina says. "Now we have money to spend, places to go -- like Masyanya." Others have been quick to pick up on the character's commercial potential. Political candidates with an eye on the youth vote have asked to use Masyanya in their campaign videos. Businessmen want her to sell condoms. With a video miniseries tentatively planned for Russian MTV in April, Masyanya looks well positioned to arrive in the mainstream. But the character is likely to meet with disapproval from Russia's political establishment. The country has a long tradition of state censorship, and leaders are quick to condemn things they view as corrupting the nation's youth. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin, bemoaning the lack of educational programs on children's television, called on the cultural elite to create role models that would "squeeze out squalid characters from the media." (Mr. Putin couldn't immediately be reached for comment about his views, if any, on Masyanya.) Guests on TV talk shows already have condemned Mr. Kuvayev for "promoting drug use" among Russia's youth. Even some other Web designers are critical of Masyanya. "It has no artistic value whatsoever," says Sergei Ledokolov, director of VDLabs, a Moscow Web-design firm. "The fact so much fuss is being made about her just shows how primitive the Russian Internet is." With her matchstick body, oversized blob head, bulging eyes and crooked grin, Masyanya is certainly no work of art. She doesn't really walk, but just jerks across the computer screen like a child's paper cutout. The St. Petersburg where she lives is a wasteland of flyblown, cockroach-infested apartments, rain-swept streets, smashed windowpanes and low-life dives full of drunks. When she meets her Prince Charming on a deserted tropical beach, his first words are: "Give me 100 bucks till the weekend." But it's this dark humor that has made Masyanya a hit. In one cartoon, she calls up a friend to make plans for her birthday party, and reels off a list of controlled substances such as cocaine, Ecstasy and "magic mushrooms" that she procured for the event. Her friend asks if she wants beer. "Oh no," Masyanya says. "Everyone'll get drunk, turn the place upside down. No, don't bring beer, I'm a respectable girl." Mr. Kuvayev says creating Masyanya was an "act of hooliganism." He dreamed her up last year to relieve the boredom of work at a St. Petersburg Web-design studio, Totem, where his clients included a mail-order bride firm called "Russian Beauty." He created her on a regular PC with cheap, off-the-shelf software such as Macromedia Flash, modeling the characters on himself and his friends, and taking plots and dialogue from life. "I just wanted to give my friends a laugh," he says with an eerily familiar giggle. The cartoon has good timing, tapping into the tremendous popularity of entertainment Web sites in Russian workplaces. In homes, dial-up connections are hostage to the poor quality and capacity constraints of Russia's creaky public-phone network. In offices, cable systems allow around-the-clock, high-speed Internet access. Besides, it's free. Masyanya isn't the only thing people watch at work. Anekdot.ru, an anthology of jokes, and Krovatka.ru, a chat room, are almost as hot as the search engine Aport and news site Gazeta.ru. "I'm horrified at how Russian office workers use the Internet," Mr. Pliushchev, the writer, says. "Only 50% of the time it's work-related. The rest is chat, e-mail and cartoons." At first, Masyanya's popularity came as a shock. "Every Monday, when a new cartoon appeared, the server would crash," Mr. Kuvayev says. He had to switch his host server four times, and now pays around €1,200 a month for more reliable hosting, compared with about €70 when the project kicked off. Now, Mult.ru is beginning to pay for itself. Mr. Kuvayev is earning money from banner ads, and orders for multimedia presentations using Flash -- the software with which he created Masyanya -- are trickling in from companies such as cellular operator OAO Mobile TeleSystems. He has hired a manager and an extra animator; in Moscow, a two-man team handles merchandising and other commercial spinoffs. The MTV deal will vastly increase Masyanya's audience. Russia , a country of 144 million, has only around four million Internet users. Already, plans are afoot for a talking Masyanya doll -- something sure to offend the nation's youth guardians. But Mr. Kuvayev dismisses claims that Masyanya is a bad influence. She's the latest in a long line of Russian literary heroines, he says. "OK, she's a freak," he adds. "But she's not as stupid as she looks." ******** #15 eurasianet.org March 20, 2002 KIDNAPPING OF CIS PEACEKEEPERS RIVETS ATTENTION ON ABKHAZIA VOLATILITY By Jeffrey K. Silverman A hostage crisis in Georgia ended March 20 with the release of four CIS peacekeeping troops by Georgian guerrillas operating in the separatist region of Abkhazia. The incident is helping to refocus international attention on the issue of separatism in Georgia. Many local experts warn that, given the overall political turmoil in Tbilisi, the long-simmering conflicts involving the separatist-minded regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia could boil over once again. The four Russian troops, members of the CIS peacekeeping force in Abkhazia, were kidnapped March 19 during an ambush in the Gali District. A Georgian guerrilla group claimed responsibility, and demanded that Abkhaz leaders release two captured cohorts. When Abkhaz leaders met the demand, the four CIS troops were freed unharmed, and apparently in good health, local media reported. Abkhaz leaders have accused President Eduard Shevardnadze's government of preparing for a new round of fighting to try to reestablish Tbilisi's authority in the separatist areas. Abkhazia and South Ossetia secured de facto independence by defeating government forces shortly after Georgia gained independence in 1991. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. On March 6, an Abkhaz security official said Georgian forces were plotting to kidnap UN observers in order to provide a pretext for Tbilisi's military intervention, Caucasus Press reported. On March 12, another Abkhaz leader accused the Georgian government of funding guerrilla groups active in Abkhazia. The Abkhaz leadership also maintains that US military advisors will help train Georgian troops that are destined to be deployed by Tbilisi in operations to reconquer the separatist territories. US and Georgian officials insist American advisors will train troops for anti-terrorist operations in the crime-ridden Pankisi Gorge. US officials have said Chechen separatists and possibly al Qaeda fighters are active in the Pankisi area. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Meanwhile, Russian officials have portrayed conditions in the Kodori Gorge region of Abkhazia as "explosive," due mainly to the ongoing presence of Georgian troops and their Chechen insurgent confederates. On March 12, a Russian foreign ministry spokesman lambasted Tbilisi for failing to comply with accords signed in early 2002 on the withdrawal of Georgian forces from the area. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russia and Georgia have wrangled for months over security-related issues. Moscow has insisted that Tbilisi prevent Chechen separatists from using Georgian territory as a rest and resupply base for guerrilla operations in Chechnya. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. Local media reports allege that elements of the Georgian political and military leadership have joined forces with Chechen separatists in an alliance of convenience against common enemies. On March 17, the independent Rustavi-2 television station aired a report that provided details of an arms trafficking operation in which the Georgian military supplied Chechens with weapons. Some local observers worry that the Georgian government has been emboldened by the arrival of US advisors to the point that Tbilisi is delusional about its own military capabilities. "We must stop trying to solve the problem in Abkhazia and South Ossetia by force. The problem in Abkhazia is not the problem of Russia or the United States," said Naira Gelashvili, president of the non-governmental organization Caucasian House. "It [Abkhazia] is a domestic problem, which cannot be eliminated unless the problem of endemic corruption is brought under control." Gelashvili and others suggest the US presence is lulling Shevardnadze and other government leaders into a false sense of security. They add the Georgian leadership could decide that with the US military helping to address security concerns, there is no longer a need to address structural problems, including corruption, that are the root causes of instability. "Neither the United States nor any other country will be capable of helping Georgia with its internal problems," Gelashvili continued. "If the representatives of the Georgian government themselves are incapable of self-realization and building a normal nation, then it is not excluded that these people [Georgian guerrillas or Chechen separatists] will be used to somebody else's advantage." Despite the evident folly of resuming the Abkhazia conflict, one expert indicated that Shevardnadze's administration might find such a move politically expedient. "These events serve as a useful short term distraction from larger problems facing Shevardnadze," said Gia Nodia, chairman of the board for the Caucasus Institute for Peace Democracy and Development. Editor's Note: Jeffrey K. Silverman is a freelance journalist based in Tbilisi. ******* #16 Los Angeles Times March 21, 2002 A Matzo Airlift and More Religion: Importing the kosher bread is part of one ultra-Orthodox group's efforts to revive Judaism in the former Soviet Union. By ROBYN DIXON, TIMES STAFF WRITER MOSCOW -- At age 8, Itzak Kogan was up to his arms in illegal flour, helping his mother bake matzo, which was banned in the Soviet Union. Even after it became legal in the 1960s, supplies were short. As a rabbi in Leningrad in the 1970s, Kogan traveled to the Soviet republic of Georgia to bake 1,100 pounds of the flat, unleavened bread, because Russian flour was unsuitable for making kosher matzo. To get the large cargo home without risking difficulties with police, family members split it up and flew it to Leningrad, now St. Petersburg.Bread Abounds Today But in Moscow today, the bread abounds. Billboards urge Russians to buy genuine Israeli matzo. The campaign is sponsored by the ultra-Orthodox Chabad Lubavitch movement, which is importing 1.2 million pounds of it into the former U.S.S.R. for the coming Passover holiday. The matzo airlift is just one part of the group's efforts to revive Judaism in the former Soviet Union, where even practices such as kosher butchering were once seen as threats to the state. After becoming a rabbi, Kogan had to learn the complicated rituals of kosher slaughtering--which was illegal--because there was no kosher meat available in Leningrad. He killed chickens secretly in his house or at his country cottage. He and his followers would slaughter cows in rural fields among high grass, where no one could see them. But the KGB knew everything. Kogan's KGB minder, Alexander Belayev, was warned by his superiors to watch Kogan closely because of his strong "anti-Soviet" activities. Kogan worked at a military plant, and Belayev informed management there that Kogan was involved in underground kosher slaughtering. But the rabbi had softened up his bosses by bringing them cheap chicken whenever he failed to follow the correct ritual in killing a bird. His superiors took no action against him. He set up an underground butcher school to teach men the rituals so that cities all over Russia could have kosher meat. Kogan, now a leading Chabad rabbi, also performed circumcisions, weddings and other rituals in secret. Risking prison, he ran an underground Jewish school. Chabad Lubavitch is the fastest-growing movement promoting the revival of Judaism in the former U.S.S.R., marking its progress not only in pounds of matzo sold but also in the dozens of schools, community centers and orphanages it has opened. It has 3,200 workers in the former Soviet Union, plus 70 kindergartens, 64 schools, three orphanages and community centers or synagogues in 70 cities. This year, the movement is holding public Seders for 250,000 Russians. The feast commemorates the exodus of the Jews from Egypt, and it is celebrated on the first night or the first two nights of eight days of Passover. The unleavened matzo is eaten to commemorate the Israelites who fled quickly into the desert with no time for their breads to rise and were forced to bake the dough into hard crackers in the sun. Because the matzo is often bought by non-practicing Jewish families, the box includes an explanation of Passover and instructions on which blessings to pronounce upon the matzo, what foods should be prepared for Passover and what each symbolizes. Reviving an Identity Russia is fertile ground for the Lubavitch movement. The nation is home to an estimated 600,000 Jews, most of whom had no spiritual connection with Judaism during the Soviet years, nor an appreciation of the nuances of Judaism and the differences among ultra-Orthodox, Orthodox or Reform strands of the religion. In Soviet times, most Jews were either non-practicing, atheists or converts to the Russian Orthodox Church, and the majority remain so. But being Jewish was an inescapable part of their identity, emblazoned on their passports under "nationality." Jews faced barriers in higher education and the workplace. Lubavitchers insist that their motive in the former Soviet Union is not to attract Jews to their own ultra-Orthodox movement but to revive people's Jewish identity. However, they focus on young people and are eager to enroll children in Lubavitch schools. The movement takes its name from Lyubavichy, near Smolensk, west of Moscow, the village where the movement was based from 1813 to 1915, spreading to other nations. On Sunday, the group will mark 100 years since the birth of the last Lubavitch rebbe, the charismatic Rabbi Menachem Schneerson, who died in 1994. The Chabad push back into Russia since the collapse of communism has generated controversy and split the nation's Jewish community. The Lubavitch-dominated Federation of Jewish Communities of Russia sparked bitterness and anger when it elected Berel Lazar as chief rabbi of the country in 2000 to compete with Russia's existing chief rabbi, Adolf Shayevich, from a broader Jewish organization, the Russian Jewish Congress. The Kremlin has embraced Lazar as though he represented all Russian Jews, further exacerbating the tensions. Lubavitch Rabbi Avraham Berkowitz of Moscow contends that one reason the movement has been successful in Russia is that Lubavitchers are willing to give up the comforts of a Western lifestyle for a harsh life in the provinces of Russia, Ukraine and other former republics. "A Lubavitcher looks at a privileged life as being not about how luxurious his car is but about his spiritual life and how much he can accomplish," he said. "We're not afraid to go into the trenches. It doesn't bother us that in summer there's no hot water in the shower." Kogan's story typifies the values of the movement. He spent 14 years trying to escape from the Soviet Union, only to return three years after he succeeded in emigrating. 'Terrifying' to Return He had been forbidden to emigrate because of his job as an engineer on systems for nuclear submarines, but his "anti-Soviet activities" were another factor. When he was finally allowed to emigrate to Israel in 1986, he lived there only a year before Schneerson urged him to return. Coming back two years later was "terrifying," Kogan recalled. Kogan came back to violence in Russia, where there have been numerous attacks and bombings targeting Jews. The 56-year-old rabbi keeps several thick black pipes in his office--pieces of a homemade bomb found in his synagogue in 1999. At the time, the rabbi and an assistant moved the bomb out onto the street. Police were called and the device was detonated under controlled conditions. An explosion had occurred at the synagogue in 1993. No one was hurt in either incident. Soon after Kogan settled in Moscow, he was invited for a meeting with his old KGB minder, Belayev, the man who had devoted his life to tracing Kogan's every step. Belayev was a broken man, living in poverty in a small apartment. He told Kogan that his superiors always exhorted him to be vigilant against Kogan. They vowed that Kogan would never be allowed to leave the country. When Kogan got his exit visa, Belayev felt that his entire KGB career had been wasted. He resigned and went back to the job he was originally trained for, a lathe operator. "He apologized to me and asked for my forgiveness," Kogan said. "He told me he quit his work after I left because for him that symbolized the failure of everything he had worked for." ******** #17 Date: Wed, 20 Mar 2002 From: "JOSEPH DRESEN" Subject: Conference Announcement NEWS RELEASE Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Wilson Center's Kennan Institute to Hold Conference on the U.S. Assessments of the Soviet and Post-Soviet Russian Economy WASHINGTON, D.C.The Wilson Center's Kennan Institute and the Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment will hold a conference titled, "U.S. Assessments of the Soviet and Post-Soviet Russian Economy: Lessons Learned and Not Learned" on March 27-28, 2002. The conference will examine how the United States developed assessments of the Soviet and Russian economy, the mistakes that were made, and the lessons to be drawn that will improve future assessments. The Honorable James R. Schlesinger, former Secretary of Defense and Energy and former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), will deliver the keynote address. The event will be held in the Center's 6th floor auditorium. The Woodrow Wilson Center is located in the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center at 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, D.C. "The U.S. government over the last half-century has expended billions of dollars and tremendous human resources on trying to understand what takes place in Russia. Now that we are at a moment of change in the U.S.-Russian relationship, it seems prudent to review past experience with an eye towards finding lessons for the future," said Blair Ruble, Director of the Kennan Institute. The Agenda and Speakers The conference will be divided into three panel discussions and will conclude with the keynote address by the Honorable James R. Schlesinger. The speakers and discussants represent widely different points of view on the accuracy of U.S. estimates of the Soviet and Russian economy -- from Soviet growth rates and percentage of military spending to the economic impact of Russia's transition from the command economy. The underlying social aspects of Russian society during this tumultuous period will also be examined. Attendance at the conference will be by invitation only. For registration, please contact Mr. Joseph Dresen at (202) 691-4245 or (dresenjo@wwic.si.edu). Panel One: "Revisiting the Estimates and Analyses of the Soviet Era" Speakers: Nikolai Petrakov was an economics advisor to Mikhail Gorbachev. In 1990 he was one of the drafters of the unimplemented "500 Days" Soviet economic reform program. He is now Director of the Market Economy Institute in Moscow. Abraham Becker of RAND is a leading specialist on Soviet economics. He served for eighteen years on the Military-Economics Advisory Panel to the Director of the CIA. The discussants for the panel will be Igor Birman, a former consultant to the Department of Defense and other U.S. government agencies and Robert Campbell, Distinguished Professor of Economics, Emeritus, at Indiana University. Panel Two: "Assessments of Russian Reform Programs" Speakers: Mikhail Zadornov, is a Deputy in the Russian State Duma and was Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation from 1997-99. Prior to his service as Minister of Finance, he was Head of the Committee for Budget, Taxes, Banks, and Finances. Zadornov also participated in drafting the "500 Days" program. Mark Medish served in the Clinton administration as special assistant to the president and senior director of the National Security Council (NSC), where he assisted the president and the National Security Advisor in forming and implementing U.S. foreign policy toward Russia and the NIS. He is now a partner in the public law and policy practice group of Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld, L.L.P. in Washington. The discussants for the panel will be Peter Reddaway, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs at George Washington University, and Anders Åslund, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Panel Three: "Understanding the Underlying Social Aspects of Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia" Speakers: Yuri Levada, Director of the All-Russian Center for Public Opinion (VTSIOM), Russia's equivalent to the Gallup Organization, is a leading Russian sociologist and pollster. Judyth Twigg, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Virginia Commonwealth University is an expert on Russian health and social welfare. The discussants for the panel will be Arthur Miller, Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa, and Richard Dobson, Research Analyst in the Office of Research, U.S. Department of State. Keynote Speaker The Hon. James R. Schlesinger, chairman, MITRE Corporation, and senior advisor, Lehman Brothers currently divides his time between the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where he serves as counselor, and the investment banking firm of Lehman Brothers. In March 1969, Schlesinger began his government service as assistant director of the Bureau of the Budget (later the Office of Management and Budget) and served for a period as acting director. In August 1971 he was selected by President Nixon to become chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and in February 1973, was named director of the Central Intelligence Agency. From July 1973 to November 1975, he served as the Secretary of Defense. In 1976, President-elect Carter asked Schlesinger to become assistant to the president, charged with the responsibility of drafting a plan for the establishment of the Department of Energy and a national energy policy. From August 5, 1977-1979, Schlesinger was the nation's first Secretary of Energy, taking the oath of office one day after President Carter signed the legislation creating the new department. The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is the official, national memorial to Woodrow Wilson, the 28th U.S. president. Established by Congress in 1968 to commemorate Wilson's service to the nation, the Center is a nonpartisan institution of advanced study that promotes scholarship in public affairs. The Wilson Center convenes the thinkers and the doers, scholars and policymakers, in the confident hope that through shared research and dialogue, better understanding and wiser policy will emerge. ### Location: 6th Floor Auditorium Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC Directions to the Center and instructions for entering the building can be found at (http://wwics.si.edu/FORTHCOM/septcal.htm). To register for the conference, please complete the following: Name: Address: Telephone: Fax: E-mail: Please indicate which panels you are interested in attending: Panel 1 ("Revisiting the Estimates and Analyses of the Soviet Era") Yes ______ No ______ Panel 2 ("Assessments of Russian Reform Programs") Yes ______ No ______ Panel 3 ("Understanding the Underlying Social Aspects of Soviet and Post-Soviet Russia") and Keynote Address Yes ______ No ______ ********