#6010
[Second Issue of the Day]
#9
BBC Monitoring
Russia Plays the Waiting Game With Tajikistan, Says
Tajik Newspaper
Source: Biznes i Politika, Dushanbe, in Russian 4 Jan 02
DUSHANBE--Relations between Russia and Tajikistan are in a delicate state.
The military operation in neighboring Afghanistan has set some testing questions for the architects of Tajikistan's foreign policy, while Russia seems content, according to Iskander Asadullayev of the Simura information and research center, to play a waiting game in the region. But will Russia's recent decisiveness in the region, he asks, be extended to the country's economic cooperation with Tajikistan? The following is the text of Asadullayev's article in Tajik newspaper Biznes i Politika on 4 January. Subheadings have been inserted editorially.
Forcing the pace of events
Great powers are cautious in the face of impending events, and are similarly cautious in helping other countries. Sometimes, admittedly, they "expect" situations such as the tragedy of 11 September. One saying fits this instance pretty well: "Until the thunder rumbles, the peasant won't cross himself". In the course of independent Tajikistan's brief history, that sort of thing has happened on more than one occasion. For example, at the start of 1992, when Russia and the Atlantic countries were waiting for events to unfold in Tajikistan, Rahmon Nabiyev, the former president of Tajikistan, decided to accelerate the "resolution" of the country's indeterminate international status and arranged a visit to the Islamic Republic of Iran. At more or less the same time, the central newspaper published an article outlining the possibility of the construction of an Islamic atom bomb. It would seem that the authors of the article had in mind Tajikistan's nuclear industrial potential, which could be linked up with an appropriate area of manufacturing in any leading Islamic country. As a result, [then] U.S. Secretary of State James Baker urgently flew to Dushanbe, and President Rahmon Nabiyev's visit to Iran did not take place.
A distinct lack of Turkish delight
To take another example. During the summer of 1995, there was a lot of talk in the press about the forthcoming visit of [former] Turkish President Suleyman Demirel. The media had strong hopes that the visit would lead to Turkish involvement in hauling Tajikistan out of its crisis. The visit took place on 10 September. But, literally on the eve of the visit, a Tajik government delegation was invited to Moscow, where a series of agreements was signed on 6-7 September. Under these agreements, the Russian Federation became Tajikistan's main partner in many areas of its national economy. And incidentally, the media didn't pay much attention to the visit to Moscow. The attention came later, after the agreement had been signed. The period which followed saw Tajikistan and the Russian Federation sign more than 100 agreements and treaties, which are unfortunately no longer in operation, either because of economic problems in Russia, or because the Russian Federation had not fully established its position on Tajikistan, leaving itself some time in hand before the onset of a possible crisis in the future.
The vagaries of foreign policy
Political scientists noted Tajikistan's notoriously contradictory foreign policy: on the one hand, military and political orientation towards Russia, on the other hand, a foreign economic orientation towards the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other international financial institutions in which Western countries play the leading role. Since Russian President Vladimir Putin's arrival in the Kremlin, it cannot be said that Russia's policy towards Tajikistan has been indeterminate. Moreover, the spilt blood of Tajiks and Russians has delivered stability in Central Asia over the last decade, and it is Russia itself which is making the main contribution to the defense of Tajikistan's border with Afghanistan. However, only during meetings between the Tajik and Russian presidents at the CIS 10th-anniversary summit in Moscow was it stated in earnest that Russian specialists are due to arrive in Tajikistan shortly to resolve our country's energy problems. The question remains: what will be the next step, and when will it be taken?
Making use of some "time in hand"
In the meantime, as far as the antiterrorist orientation is concerned, it needs to be said that the same principle was operating in Central Asia and in Afghanistan. Amid the rapprochement between Russia and the Atlantic countries, the countries of Central Asia and the Northern Alliance found themselves in a geopolitical dilemma. In our opinion, it seems possible that Russia, in order to avoid aggravating a [word missing from original text] of this nature, stepped up its policy in Afghanistan, and the Northern Alliance was able to launch an attack on the Taleban. Can it be said that, in this case as well, Russia used its time in hand to maximum effect, and forestalled the onset of a critical situation for itself and for others?
The answer to this question lies in the future. It is possible that, on the issue of Tajikistan as well, certain Russian circles believe that there is some time in hand until the country is faced with an economic crisis.
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