September 28, 2001

This Date's Issues:   5465 • 5466

Johnson's Russia List
#5465
28 September 2001
davidjohnson@erols.com

[Note from David Johnson:
1. AFP: As US and Russia converge on terror, seed of 'new world order' seen.
2. Financial Times (UK): Judy Dempsey, Nato mulls new shift in Moscow on membership.
3. The Independent (UK): Stephen Castle, Putin sets sights on historic first visit to Nato HQ.
4. Reuters: Paul Taylor, RUSSIA IN NATO? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.
5. Carnegie in Washington: McFaul Book Launch & Farewell.
6. Dmitri Glinski-Vassiliev: Brief Note for the JRL Readers.
7. Luba Schwartzman: ORT Review.
8. Clifford Grammich: RAND publication on Russian demographics.
9. Moscow Times: Boris Nemtsov, Russia Can Teach the World.
10. UPI: Russia: Chechen rebels make contact.
11. Financial Times (UK): Andrew Jack, Moscow plays down prospects of Chechnya breakthrough.
12. RFE/RL: Kathleen Knox, Chechnya: Is Western Support For The Republic Eroding?
13. Itar-Tass: Russian computer users struggle with Nimda virus.
14. RIA: Russian parliament faction drafts new farmland sale bill.
15. Itar-Tass: "Russia's European way" stressed as Putin details economic reforms.
16. AFP: Uzbek militant's terror threat to former Soviet republics.]

*******

#1
As US and Russia converge on terror, seed of 'new world order' seen

WASHINGTON, Sept 27 (AFP) -
Terror attacks in the United States this month instantly thrust Washington
and Moscow into common cause on a top strategic priority, a historic shift
presaging a genuine realignment in world order, according to US and
European experts in geopolitics.

In the days since jets plowed into the World Trade Center in New York and
the Pentagon in Washington, both countries have made dramatic shifts that
put them strikingly in sync on the US-declared war against terrorism and,
some experts say, on other global objectives too.

This abrupt convergence of interests between the two Cold War-era
superpower rivals will have important consequences in the immediate
campaign to eradicate terrorism and could also yield fundamental and
long-term shifts in the northern hemisphere's balance of power.

"Yes, the Russians are open to proceding more in cooperation with the
United States, to building a new world order of which they are a part,"
said Celeste Wallander of the Center for Strategic and International
Studieshere.

"The reality is they have common interests and central Asia is important
among them," explained Wallander, director of the CSIS Russia and Eurasian
program.

While the two countries do not agree fully on who constitutes a terrorist
-- Washington has not accepted Russian President Vladimir Putin's
description of rebels in Chechnya as "terrorists" -- the September 11
attacks have generated a strong synergy of views between them that
terrorism in general is the biggest danger facing each.

And that synergy, the experts say, has the potential to rearrange radically
the ways in which the United States, Russia and Europe work together in
areas ranging from defense and trade to access to natural resources in
central Asia, the Caucasus and elsewhere.

"Fundamental changes in security policies are, as a rule, made as a result
of crisis situations and that is the case here," said Adam Rotfeld,
director of the respected Stockholm International Peace Research
Institutebased in the Swedish capital.

"When the United States said it wanted to organize a global anti-terrorism
coalition, Russia was an obvious partner to help do that and we are now in
the process of a dramatic redifinition of strategic priorities," he said.

In particular, Rotfeld and other experts said, the momentum to continue
expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), regarded by
Russia as a serious threat to its security, has virtually halted in its
tracks.

"Who is talking about NATO enlargement now?" Rotfeld said. "It's still
important, but has gone way down on the US list of priorities."

At the same time, the US-led alliance seems to be rallying to an argument
advanced by Putin for the past two years that it should focus not on Russia
but instead on areas south and east of Europe including the Caucasus and
central Asia.

"The Russians have been saying for some time that 'you guys aren't focusing
on the real security threat'," Wallander said.

"And that's legitimate. NATO finally invoked Article 5 for the first time
in its history and it invoked it to deal with a terrorist threat."

While no one denies that there has been a sudden and pronounced convergence
of goals between the United States and Russia, some reject the notion that
it might have repercussions beyond the immediate efforts to combat terrorism.

The two countries still have many points of contention and will compete
more intensely on many fronts -- notably for control of the vast oil and
natural gas reserves of the Caspian Sea basin -- in the future,
complicating longer-term pursuit of common objectives, experts say.

"Russia and the US have a shared interest in fighting the organized,
international aspects of terrorism," said Thomas Keaney, executive director
of the Foreign Policy Institute at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies in Washington.

He and other experts agreed that US President George W. Bush's claim
Wednesday of links between Chechen rebels and Osama bin Laden, Washington's
prime "terrorist" suspect in the September 11 attacks, was clear evidence
of that common goal.

"But this new cooperation won't go beyond that. There are so many other
things that they disagree on and this cooperation continues to be hampered
within Russia by a basic anti-US influence," he said.

Moscow's assent to basing US warplanes in central Asia, opening of Russian
airspace, offer to assist US military operations with search and rescue and
sharing of intelligence, he said, was merely a tactical marriage of
convenience.

Others who have studied or been directly involved in the making of US
policy on Russia disagreed.

They said the Moscow-Washington warming marked a tectonic strategic shift
that many had anticipated could occur when the Soviet Union collapsed and
the then-US President George Bush first evoked the emergence of a new world
order.

It will result not just in acceleration of a more inclusive security scheme
for Europe, possibly through Russian membership in NATO, but could also
speed Moscow's admission to the World Trade Organization and full
integration into the security, commercial and political institutions of the
West.

"We are in the process of establishing totally new rules in the game,"
Rotfeld said, saying that moves in central Asia by Russia, the United
States and other countries would determine how that game shapes up.

Both the United States and Russia have rapidly-growing interest in the
resources of the Caspian Sea basin and any cooperation between them in
establishing control over those resources would present a formidable
geostrategic juggernaut.

"We should focus on that region: it is the new area of possible conflict
and new kinds of cooperation also," Rotfeld said.

*******

#2
Financial Times (UK)
28 September 2001
Nato mulls new shift in Moscow on membership
By Judy Dempsey, Diplomatic correspondent, in Brussels

When Sergei Ivanov, Russian defence minister, stood on the podium at Nato
headquarters on Wednesday, he was asked if Russia wanted to join Nato.

For a split second, Mr Ivanov was stunned. He tried to pass the question to
Lord Robertson, Nato secretary-general, who declined. Then Mr Ivanov
replied: "I never exclude anything as a possibility. The world changes 10
times faster than 15 years ago. Practically, we have not yet discussed it.
But my presence here confirms that I never exclude anything."

Mr Ivanov had chosen his words carefully, particularly ahead of the visit
next week to Brussels by Vladimir Putin, Russian president. It is still
unclear if he will visit Nato headquarters. Even if he did, Lord Robertson
said, too much should not be read into it.

But a close reading of Mr Putin's own remarks in Germany this week shows
how he has managed to throw the question of Russia's membership into the
alliance's own court. "Everything depends on what is on offer," Mr Putin
told reporters. "There is no longer a reason for the west not to conduct
such talks."

The last time Nato considered such a request was shortly after Stalin's
death in 1953, when Nikita Khrushchev asked to join. The US and Britain
replied on May 7 1954. It was a categorical "no".

This time, Nato is in disarray over how it would respond if Mr Putin asked
to join a military alliance established at the height of the cold war in
April 1949 but now seeking a new role that includes combating terrorism.

Some officials say that because the US desperately needs the support of
Russia in its global fight against terrorism, it will be Washington, not
its European allies, that will decide if Russia should join.

"The US is now establishing a new relationship with Russia," said a Nato
diplomat.

"My gut feeling is that the Europeans will be sidelined to the extent that
it will be Washington who will set the terms over Russia's membership," he
added.

Other Nato officials say Russia is far from ready in terms of even
considering membership. Russia, they say, does not meet any of the
membership criteria. There is no rule of law. It has yet to reform its
armed forces. It continues to bomb Chechnya - which the US has now chosen
to treat as a strictly internal Russia affair in the interests of bringing
Moscow into its global coalition against terrorism.

"Even if we said yes, we can talk about membership, Russia would not be
ready to join for at least 10 years," said another diplomat.

Other Nato officials believe the prospect of Nato membership could prevent
Russia from feeling isolated, especially if Nato decides to offer
membership to the Baltic states next year. They also say it could push
Russia towards reforms and create a new security environment stretching
from Washington to Vladivostock.

If that was the case, "Nato would be a completely different kind of
alliance," said George Schopflin, political science professor at the London
School of Slavonic and East European Studies. "And the east Europeans would
be very uneasy. Joining Nato was their security guarantee against Russia."

More crucially, added Mr Schopflin, if Russia were to join, Mr Putin would
almost certainly request the same privileges enjoyed by the current 19
members. The most important privilege is the right of veto. "If Russia was
granted that, could we honestly say we could have another Kosovo-type war
which Russia opposed. I doubt it. A Russian veto would end Nato as we know
it."

*******

#3
The Independent (UK)
28 September 2001
Putin sets sights on historic first visit to Nato HQ
By Stephen Castle in Brussels

Russia's pledge to fight global terrorism and its rapidly warming relations
with Nato should be strengthened next week when President Vladimir Putin
meets the alliance's secretary general, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen.

The encounter has been given added importance by reports that President
Putin may become the first Russian or Soviet leader to visit Nato's
headquarters in Brussels. Quoting Ivan Ivanov, Russia's Deputy Foreign
Minister, the Novosti news agency said the President intended to make an
historic visit to the alliance's offices. That took Nato by surprise. The
alliance has been preparing for the meeting to take place on neutral
territory in the centre of Brussels, after discussions with the EU, but it
does not rule out a change of venue.

No Russian president has set foot inside Nato headquarters. When Boris
Yeltsin visited the Belgian capital, the alliance's secretary general met
him at the Russian diplomatic residence.

However, Mr Putin said on television two weeks ago that he was intending to
visit Nato headquarters. And the new mood of collaboration is growing so
fast that, based on the Russian President's comments in Germany this week,
the main headline in the Suddeutsche Zeitung newspaper read yesterday:
"Putin wants Nato membership for Russia".

In any event, next week's meeting – the third between President Putin and
Lord Robertson – comes in what one official described as a "new climate".

On Wednesday, Sergei Ivanov, Russia's Defence Minister, impressed Nato
officials with a 20-minute briefing on terrorism in central Asia.

One source said that his frankness prompted Paul Wolfowitz, the United
States Deputy Defence Secretary, to share more information with the
Russians than he had done at an earlier meeting with his 18 Nato allies.

Naturally, Russia is not acting from altruism. In return for the pledge to
help the US combat terrorism, the West has toned down its rhetoric over
human rights abuses in Chechnya. Gerhard Schröder, the German Chancellor,
said world opinion should have a "differentiated evaluation" of crack-downs
on Chechen separatists and spoke of an "elevated threat" around Chechnya.

Russia can also expect that two policies it fiercely opposes – the
expansion of Nato, possibly to include the Baltic states, and an American
missile defence shield – will now be put on the back burner.
Search this site:

*******

#4
RUSSIA IN NATO? DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH.
By Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor

BRUSSELS, Sept 27 (Reuters) - A decade after the collapse of the Soviet
Union, could Russia join NATO?

Despite tantalising comments from President Vladimir Putin, most Western
and Russian experts say: "Don't hold your breath."

In the wake of the September 11 attacks on the United States, Putin has
offered sweeping anti-terrorism cooperation with the West and approved
closer cooperation with the 19-nation Western military alliance, long seen
as a bogeyman in Moscow.

Against that background, Putin made the latest in a series of intriguing
comments on the possibility of joining Russia's Cold War nemesis on a visit
to Berlin on Wednesday.

Asked whether Moscow sought NATO membership, he told German newspaper
editors: "All depends on what is offered. There are no grounds any more for
the West not to hold these talks."

NATO Secretary-General George Robertson, who meets Putin in Brussels next
Wednesday, sidestepped the question diplomatically, noting that the
alliance does not invite countries to join. They first have to apply.

U.S. President George W. Bush, like his predecessor Bill Clinton, has been
careful to avoid ruling out the possibility of eventual Russian membership.

But cynics in both East and West have tended to regard such "open door"
talk as little more than a sop to Russia as it grudgingly watches former
Warsaw Pact allies - and perhaps soon the ex-Soviet Baltic states -
admitted to NATO.

NOT SERIOUSLY CONTEMPLATED?

Privately, Russian and Western officials doubt Moscow is seriously
contemplating seeking membership.

They argue that Putin may be signalling goodwill towards an organisation
still regarded with visceral mistrust by many in Moscow, but also
challenging the West to explain why NATO should admit other east European
democracies but not Russia.

"In reality, I don't see Russia putting in an application. Russia still
wants to be equal with the United States, and certainly not with individual
NATO countries. They still believe the U.S. runs NATO completely," a senior
NATO official said.

A Kremlin official accompanying Putin told Reuters: "The expansion of the
alliance at present is a second stage problem, about which one should not
make excessive noise."

There are strong arguments for questioning the practicality of Russian
membership.

Admitting Russia would stretch NATO's land borders across central Asia to
China and oblige the alliance to extend its Article V mutual defence clause
to any attack on the sprawling Eurasian giant.

Given that NATO takes all its decisions by consensus, many fear it would
become politically neutered and turned it into a U.N.-style talking shop
subject to vetoes from Moscow.

A senior NATO officer spoke with horror of the alliance being transformed
into "the OSCE with an integrated military command" - a reference to the
largely toothless, 54-nation Organisation for Security and Cooperation in
Europe.

Yet Russian troops already serve alongside NATO peacekeeping forces in
Bosnia and Kosovo, and there are Russian diplomats at NATO headquarters,
staffing a Permanent Joint Council created in 1997 under a Founding Act
that established special relations.

THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE

Even before the attacks on New York and Washington shook up the global
strategic picture, some Western analysts were starting to think the
unthinkable.

Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King's College, London,
argued that the logic of NATO's transformation from a Cold War defence pact
into a pan-European security organisation was that it would eventually
embrace Moscow.

NATO's admission of Spain in the 1980s and Poland, Hungary and the Czech
Republic in 1999 had established it as a community of democracies with
common values.

"The logic of this process leads to the position where it can only be
completed by including Russia," Freedman wrote in the Financial Times in
August.

Since September 11, some see that process being accelerated by growing
cooperation in fighting terrorism.

"People will have to start thinking seriously about Russian membership of
the alliance. It becomes much more relevant now," said Simon Lunn,
secretary-general of the consultative NATO Parliamentary Assembly, which
includes Russian lawmakers.

"Of course, some people will say it would be the end of NATO. But NATO is
already changing in reality in ways that no one could have predicted," he
said.

Putin could breach a powerful taboo if he becomes the first Kremlin leader
to visit NATO headquarters next week, though Russian foreign and defence
ministers have done so before.

Robertson played down that possibility on Wednesday, saying he could see no
"ideological or theological" grounds why the Russian leader would not want
to enter the grey NATO building, but he was happy to meet him elsewhere in
Brussels to spare him the drive and the security problems.

Many experts believe that seeking NATO membership could prove
psychologically unacceptable to Moscow as it would mean accepting a greatly
diminished role in Europe and the world.

"It will be a very long time before Russia applies, if they ever do," a
U.S. diplomat said. "The mindset of most Russian officials is a visceral
and archaic hostility to NATO and all it stands for because of their
current diminished position."

Russian analyst Vladimir Baranovsky said attitudes in Moscow towards the
alliance were changing, but there were good grounds to promote practical
cooperation rather than membership.

"Russia is a big country with lots of security challenges, not just in
Europe," Baranovsky said. "Nobody would ever want Russia in NATO. The
United States would not want an alternative nuclear pole within the
alliance and no one in NATO wants to border on China."

*******

#5
From: "Julie Shaw" <jshaw@ceip.org>
Subject: 10/2 McFaul Book Launch & Farewell...
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Russian and Eurasian
Program Presents
RUSSIA'S UNFINISHED REVOLUTION: POLITICAL CHANGE FROM GORBACHEV TO PUTIN

A BOOK LAUNCH RECEPTION AND FAREWELL GATHERING FOR MICHAEL MCFAUL

Please join us for a cocktail reception to celebrate the launch of a new
book, Russias Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to
Putin (Cornell University Press, 2001), by Michael McFaul, senior
associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Released
before the tenth anniversary of the Soviet Unions collapse, this book
provides an in-depth analysis of modern Russian politics from the Gorbachev
period to the present.

We will use this opportunity to bid farewell to Michael, who is also an
associate professor of political science at Stanford University, as he
relocates to Stanford to teach full-time. He will maintain his Carnegie
affiliation as a non-resident senior associate.

The book launch reception and farewell gathering will take place on
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 2 FROM 5:30-7:30 PM at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace at 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Please respond by
noon, Monday, October 1st, by calling Ann Stecker at (202) 939-2282.

Sincerely,
Andrew C. Kuchins
Director, Russian and Eurasian Program

******

#6
From: "Dmitri Glinski-Vassiliev" <dmitri_glinski@mtu-net.ru>
Subject: Brief Note for the JRL Readers
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001

Dear friends,
those who are interested are welcome to see the text of my last week's talk
in Moscow, at http://dmitriglinski.narod.ru/BOOKTALK_rus.htm. The English
version may be provided soon, depending on the demand.
There is also a discussion page on the same site. You are invited to
participate, either in Russian or in English.

Dmitri Glinski-Vassiliev
Senior Associate, IMEMO
Russian Academy of Sciences

*******

#7
ORT Review
www.ortv.ru
Compiled by Luba Schwartzman (luba7@bu.edu)
Research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and
Policy at Boston University

HEADLINES,
Thursday, September 27, 2001
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is finishing his state visit to Germany
with an informal meeting with German Chancellor Gerhard Shroeder and a
two-hour canal tour on the Elbe.
- Retired Army Reserve Colonel George Trofimoff, has been found guilty of
spying for Moscow and sentenced to life in prison.
- A freight ship and an oil tanker collided last night in the Tagonrog bay
of the Azov Sea. There were no casualties, but some of the 4,300 tons of
oil carried on the Volgoneft-138 tanker spilled out, forming a 2 by 6
kilometer oil slick. Emergency workers explain that they have all of the
necessary technology and the weather is favorable, so the clean-up can be
completed within several days. A special ecological commission will be
created to examine possible damage to nearby towns and settlements.
- State Duma deputies reviewed a number of social and economic laws today.
In addition, much of the conversation revolved around tomorrow's vote on
the 2002 draft budget.
- The Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation has resumed its work
after the summer recess.
- Large-scale military exercises of the Pacific Fleet marines have been
completed. Fleet commander Admiral Gennady Suchkov expressed satisfaction
with the performance.
- A description of president Putin's statement concerning voluntary
disarmament has been printed up on 120,000 flyers and distributed
throughout the republic's regions. Only seven weapons -- all from
civilians -- have been turned in so far.
- Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov discussed the problems of the
fight against international terrorism with NATO Secretary General Lord
George Robertson.
- About 120,000 thousand Afghan refugees have gathered in the border
regions.
- The Russian border troops service does not plan on sending
reinforcements to the Afghan-Tajik border.
- Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has welcomed Pakistan's decision to stop
aiding the Taliban.
- Pope John Paul II will conduct a service at Yerevan's Khor-Viral -- one
of the oldest holy Christian churches.
- Russia participated in an official conference of the ministers of OPEC
Nations for the first time.
- For the first time, American President George W. Bush has acknowledged
that there are terrorists in Chechnya who are connected to Osama Bin
Laden.
- The problems in Chechnya will be discussed at the PACE (Parliamentary
Assembly of the Council of Europe) meeting in Strasbourg.
- The operation to raise the Kursk nuclear submarine is in its last stage.
- An exhibit dedicated to the work of French abstract painter Pierre
Soulages has been opened at the Tretyakovskaya Gallery.

******

#8
Date: Thu, 27 Sep 2001 13:09:38 -0500
From: Clifford Grammich <grammich@rand.org>
Subject: Publication on Russian demographics

The RAND Population Matters project is pleased to announce the publication
of Dire Demographics: Population Trends in the Russian Federation, by Julie
DaVanzo and Clifford Grammich. This report, written for a general
audience, reviews available statistics on population trends in the Russian
Federation and interpretation of their implications. In reviewing this
work, Cynthia Buckley of the University of Texas praised it for
“provid[ing] the opportunity for individuals without any specific
background to quickly gain a grounded understanding of the complex
demographic processes at work and [for] present[ing] a comprehensive
English-language bibliography for those interested in pursuing further
reading.” Sergei V. Zakharov of the Center for Demography and Human
Ecology at the Russian Academy of Science noted in his review of the
document that “the authors’ style is easy to understand for a wide audience
. . . [their] conclusions are always formulated clearly.”

We would greatly appreciate an announcement on the Johnson Russia List of
publication of this work. Interested readers may view its PDF files at
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1273. Hard copies of the manuscript
may also be ordered for free direct from the RAND web page. In coming
weeks, the Population Matters project will be publishing three policy
briefs on this manuscript, summarizing overall research points and
implications as well as those specifically related to abortion and
contraception and to health and mortality. I will notify you when these
are available.

The Population Matters project seeks to synthesize and communicate the
findings and implications of existing research in ways that policy analysts
and others will find accessible. For further information on the project
and its publications, readers may visit our web site,
http://www.rand.org/popmatters.

Thank you for your consideration. Please let Julie DaVanzo
(julie@rand.org) or myself (grammich@rand.org) know if you have any
questions about this work or the Population Matters project.

******

#9
Moscow Times
September 28, 2001
Russia Can Teach the World
By Boris Nemtsov
Boris Nemtsov, former first deputy prime minister of Russia, is leader of
the Union of Right Forces. He contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

Russia has taken absolutely the right decision in joining with Europe and
the United States to fight against terrorism. President Vladimir Putin made
a very important statement on Sept. 11, when he said "We are with you" --
having in mind the United States and indeed the whole of the civilized world.

We, unfortunately, have a lot of experience of terrorism in this country --
considerably more than the Americans have -- and I believe that there is
much that we can teach the United States. The most important lesson we have
learned from the war in Chechnya is that there is no such thing as an
exclusively military solution, and that only a combination of military and
political measures has a chance of success. This holds equally for Chechnya
and Afghanistan.

I hope that cool heads will prevail in the White House, in the Congress and
in America at large, and that the political component of resolving the
conflict will not be neglected.

I reiterate the formula that I have expounded on a number of occasions: We
must destroy the terrorists and open dialogue with the people. This is a
universal formula which applies as much to Afghanistan as it does to
Chechnya.

I am not saying we should negotiate with terrorists -- the only language
they understand is the language of the Kalashnikov. However, it is
extremely important to prevent a war against terrorism from turning into a
war against a whole nation.

Furthermore, I believe that we need to form a broad coalition against
terrorism, which includes countries of the Moslem world. There is,
unfortunately, a great deal of misunderstanding about Islam.

Islam is a peaceable religion and is essentially incompatible with
terrorism. It is a misnomer to equate jihad with terrorism. A jihad is in
defense of the Moslem faith and does not have anything to do with blowing
up apartment blocks in Moscow or skyscrapers in New York.

It is incumbent upon prominent Moslem figures and the leaders of Islamic
states, including the Arab states, to come out and say this. If, for
example, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt and Jordan come out in
support of this position, I think this would be a very important step in
the right direction.

Russia now has a unique opportunity to put its domestic situation on the
right track and to make a major contribution to the international fight
against terrorism.

We are prepared to fully support the anti-terrorism coalition, the only
proviso being that we will not send our soldiers into Afghanistan. We
suffer from "Afghan syndrome" analogous to what the United States suffers
vis-a-vis Vietnam, and President George W. Bush and others must understand
that it is neither politically nor morally possible for us to commit troops
to Afghanistan.

New Political Season

As the new parliamentary season kicks off, we must build on the successes
of the previous session and redouble our efforts to pass legislation
conducive to improving the investment climate. Russia needs to present an
"asymmetrical response" to the world to demonstrate that it is serious.

It is crucial that we continue the tax revolution that was started last
year. The Union of Right Forces is supporting legislation to reduce VAT to
16 percent from the current level of 20 percent. Furthermore, we are
seeking to abolish sales tax completely. Customs legislation must be
brought into line with WTO standards as far as possible. And we must push
hard for the adoption of sensible legislation on production sharing
agreements.

Land reform must be broadened to encompass the sale and purchase of
agricultural land, not just the 2 percent of land covered in the Land Code
at present. And we must continue reform of the country's judicial system.

Another much-needed reform is modernization of the Russian army. SPS is
calling for the reduction of military service from two years to six months.
This would be an important first step in converting to a fully professional
army, with professional soldiers being recruited from among those that wish
to continue serving after the six-month period.

We commissioned a survey this summer (conducted by VTsIOM), according to
which 75 percent of young people said they would do military service if it
was only half a year, while only 7 percent said they would voluntarily do
two years of military service. This would additionally have the positive
effects of radically altering the social composition of the army and
reducing the problem of hazing.

Another important area is center-regional relations and local government.

We must close the loophole that allows certain regional governors to run
for a third term. This is absolutely vital to prevent stagnation of the
country and to reverse the prevailing trend toward feudalization of Russia.
This loophole only serves to weaken the state and encourages regional
governors to behave like feudal lords ruling over their own private fiefdoms.

Legislation must also be passed to improve the financial foundations of
local government. The federal government heaps expenditure responsibilities
on municipalities while not providing them with adequate funds to finance
them.

Local government, as in the United States, should have an independent
revenue base. Certain taxes, such as income, property and land taxes,
should be wholly local. In this way, municipal authorities would also
acquire a direct stake in the economic prosperity of their municipality, as
their tax revenues would depend directly on the health of the local
economy. At the moment, most of a local government's budget is made up of
funds handed down to it from above.

Putin's Performance

Assessing the record of the Putin administration over the last year and a
half, there have been major successes in the area of economic reform and in
the international arena. There have been major breakthroughs in
de-bureaucratization, in liberalization of foreign currency laws and in the
area of pension reform.

However, more remains to be done to reduce the number of government
agencies that can conduct checks on businesses and/or to reduce the
frequency of these checks. This would assist in curbing bureaucrats'
appetites for bribes.

Insufficient progress has been made in reforming the banking sector and
stock markets. Furthermore, attempts to reform the state service have been
weak. I don't think that Putin has enough friends in St. Petersburg to
replace the whole state machine. Of course, a lot of work needs to be done
to raise civil servants' salaries, to raise the prestige of state service
and to reduce incentives for corruption.

However, at the end of the day it is a question of political will, i.e.
does the president want to undertake serious reform of the state service or
not?

Freedom of speech and the growing state monopolization of the media remain
issues of considerable concern. In fact, this is much more of a problem at
the regional level than it is at the federal level.

According to data from the Glasnost Defense Foundation, as much as 90
percent of regional media outlets are controlled -- directly or indirectly
-- by regional administrations.One way of tackling this would be to apply
anti-monopoly legislation to the media. Thus, for example, if the state
controls more than 25 percent of the television market (and this can be
measured using Gallup polls etc.), then it should be made to dispose of
some of its media assets.

The federal government controls something like 70 percent of national
television. Surely one channel -- RTR for example -- is sufficient for the
state to get its message across. The absence of diversity and pluralism in
the media is very dangerous. Furthermore, greater media diversity would
have a positive impact on reducing corruption.

One of Putin's problems is that as a former intelligence officer he pays
far too much attention to the media and is extremely sensitive to media
criticism.

Regarding NTV, however, I think the doomsayers, who predicted that the
channel would completely come under Kremlin control and become nothing more
than an official mouthpiece of the administration, have been proven wrong.
The channel's main problem is financial and connected with the drop in its
ratings.

The picture is somewhat mixed with regard to the institution of
presidential representatives introduced by Putin last year, immediately
after his inauguration.

On the positive side, they have reversed thousands of unconstitutional
acts, have done much to create a single legal space in the country and to
halt regional separatism.

The presidential representatives also serve as a counterbalance to
overbearing governors and mayors. However, the fact that there is no law on
presidential representatives -- only a presidential decree -- is a major
problem, as legally their position is weak and their formal powers limited.
They can still be a positive force for change, but their main resource is
their access to the president and their ability to control governors'
access to the president.

Overall, my assessment of Putin and the performance of his administration
is positive, with the most important successes in the area of economic
reform and the main failure being the administration's policy on Chechnya.

As far as my prognosis is concerned, I believe that Putin's fate is in the
hands of OPEC. Unfortunately, the main factor influencing political
stability in the country is the price of Urals crude on world markets.

As long as the oil price remains high, Putin's popularity ratings will
continue to be high, reforms will be continued and nothing too bad will
happen. If the price of oil falls, there could be problems -- although it
will be the government that will experience them first.

*******

#10
Russia: Chechen rebels make contact

MOSCOW, Sept. 27 (UPI) -- As President Vladimir Putin's 72-hour deadline
for the start of disarmament talks with Chechen rebels expired Thursday
night, a senior Russian official announced that a representative of Chechen
rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov had made contact.

Viktor Kazantsev, Putin's special representative in the southern region,
told Russian television networks that "a representative came from Maskhadov,
we had discussions and explained ... that, if the conditions announced by
the president are met, negotiations are possible."

Kazantsev said the negotiating process was in the very early stages, but
added that he was "sure of a result."

Meanwhile, Maskhadov's representatives dismissed the reports and insisted
that their side had not made contact with the federal authorities in
response to Putin's ultimatum, which was made Monday night.

Putin's ultimatum, largely ignored in Chechnya, gave the rebels three days
to disarm and walk away free, Russia's state-controlled RTR and ORT networks
said Thursday. Toward the end of the 72-hour deadline, only seven Chechens
gave up and handed over their weapons, Moscow's independent Ekho Moskvy
radio station reported.

The weapons were turned in by Chechen civilians who wanted to avoid
charges of illegal possession of firearms, a criminal offense in Russia.
Four grenade launchers, two handguns and a submachine gun were recovered,
Ekho Moskvy reported.

A spokesman for the Interior Ministry's North Caucasus division said
weapons were handed over in the Shelkovsky, Nozhai-Yurt, Itum-Kale and
Grozny districts of Chechnya.

"We have not registered any handovers of the weapons by the rebels,"
spokesman Vladimir Matyushkin told NTV television network. "Nonetheless,
there is still time."

Earlier, Kazantsev's office released a statement which said the
president's ultimatum was aimed at getting rebels to establish contacts with
federal authorities to discuss terms of their surrender, not to have them
disarm within that deadline.

Ekho Moskvy reported Thursday that the rebels were trying to establish
contacts with authorities through their relatives who live in the
state-controlled areas of the province.

Russian warplanes dropped more than 100,000 leaflets all over Chechnya
advising rebels to surrender, the station reported.

With the rebels apparently ignoring Putin's plea, political analysts were
speculating what consequences the guerrillas faced after the deadline
passed.

Chechnya's Prime Minister Stanislav Ilyasov told the Interfax news agency
Thursday that "no large-scale military action or arrests will take place
(after the deadline)."

"Many local residents ask me with anxiety what is going to happen after
these three days," he said. "I convincingly reply -- an ordinary day."

Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov hinted in a newspaper interview Thursday
that intensification of Russia's crackdown on the rebels could be expected.
"There are no adversaries left there to conduct an active (large-scale)
operation," Ivanov told the Trud daily. "As regards the degree of
decisiveness and intensity of addressed operations against the terrorists, I
think that they will be stepped up in the coming days."

Speaker of Russia's upper house of parliament Yegor Stroyev agreed. He
said federal troops "will intensify their activities."

"In particular, the borders with Georgia, Azerbaijan, as well as the
borders of the CIS countries with Afghanistan, will be shut more tightly to
cut off Chechnya from the channels of arms supplies," Stroyev said.

Meanwhile Thursday, police in the Chechen city of Argun uncovered a cache
with 12 tons of saltpeter in a ruined concrete factory on the city's
outskirts.

*******

#11
Financial Times (UK)
28 September 2001
Moscow plays down prospects of Chechnya breakthrough
By Andrew Jack in Moscow

Russian officials have played down the likelihood of any rapid change in
the conflict in the breakaway Russian republic of Chechnya as the deadline
set by President Vladimir Putin for rebels to lay down their arms expired
on Thursday night.

Mr Putin on Monday offered rebel forces 72 hours to surrender their weapons
and to return to civilian life, while breaking links with international
terrorist groups, in a speech announcing his decision to support the US
calls for a coalition against terrorism.

His co-operation appeared to trigger a softening in western criticism of
Russia's handling of the conflict in Chechnya, with words of support this
week from the US, German and Italian administrations.

Russian officials have increasingly stressed the role of foreign Islamic
fundamentalists in supplying funds and fighters to Chechnya during the past
two years, although others suggest that such contributions are modest.

Mr Putin's deadline on Monday triggered fears that an intensification of
military attacks would follow, capitalising on a higher international
tolerance of tough action at a time of widespread fear about terrorism.

Some Russian government officials argued that there was no ultimatum,
although Sergei Ivanov, the defence minister, called it "the last chance
for bandits", warning that after the deadline expired "if someone does not
hide in time after that, I am not to be blamed".

However, there have also been some signs that the Kremlin is increasingly
interested in finding a political solution in Chechnya, at a time of
growing public frustration with the conflict, which has claimed thousands
of lives.

Mr Putin said at the start of September "we are ready for talks with
anyone", and his remarks on Monday spurred Aslan Maskhadov, the elected
president of Chechnya, to appoint Akhmad Zakayev, the deputy prime minister
of his separatist government, as a negotiator with the government.

"We see Vladimir Putin's speech as the first possibility to establish
contact after two years of war," a spokesman for Mr Maskhadov told press
agencies. "I think that after the Russian president's new offer, there are
real chances to start negotiations so as to end military action."

Frank Judd, joint head of Council of Europe's working group on Chechnya,
said there was "a dynamic which will hopefully lead to a negotiated polit
ical settlement" between the Russian government and rebel forces. But he
added: "Human rights violations [in Chechnya] are still awful and a lot of
things are very disturbing. Disproportionate and indiscriminate action
drives people into the arms of the extremists."

*******

#12
Chechnya: Is Western Support For The Republic Eroding?
By Kathleen Knox

In the wake of the devastating terrorist assault on the United States,
Germany and the U.S. have softened their tone on Russia's handling of the
war in Chechnya. The U.S. has also toughened its stance towards the
separatists, calling on them to cut all contacts with terrorist groups.
RFE/RL correspondent Kathleen Knox explores how much sympathy the Chechen
cause has outside Russia and if it's on the wane following the 11 September
attacks.

Prague, 27 September 2001 (RFE/RL) -- Throughout the breakaway republic's
two wars of the last decade, "Chechnya" in many Western minds has conjured
up images that evoke sympathy: squalid refugee camps, innocent civilians
caught up in fighting, a burned-out capital.

Though it slipped off the international agenda in recent months, human
rights organizations and the occasional Western government official still
took the Russian government to task over allegations of human rights abuses
in the breakaway republic.

Human rights activists say Russia has used excessive force in what the
nation calls its own war against terrorism, and directed much of it against
the wrong people.

But what a change a few short weeks can make.

On 11 September, extremists brought terror to the United States in horrific
attacks that left almost 7,000 dead.

Russian President Vladimir Putin -- instead of having to deflect criticism
of Russia's human rights record in Chechnya -- is now describing the
conflict as a necessary part of the broader war on terrorism.

Former critics are adopting a new, softer stance on Russia's handling of
the war. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder went so far this week as to
suggest that the world re-evaluate its opinion of the situation in Chechnya.

The attacks didn't just put Russia's war in the breakaway republic in a new
light. They also sparked a hunt for the orchestrators and their associates,
with one of the trails leading to Chechnya. Some of the separatist fighters
have long been suspected of receiving training and funding from
international terrorist associations. That link is now receiving greater
attention with the claim that these associates include Al-Qaeda, a group
headed by Osama bin Laden, the prime suspect in the U.S. attacks.

U.S. government officials yesterday said there's no doubt this link exists,
and urged the Chechen leadership to cut all contact with such groups. U.S.
President George W. Bush said yesterday, "To the extent that there are
terrorists in Chechnya, Arab terrorists associated with the Qaida
organization, I believe they ought to be brought to justice."

If proof of this link with international terrorist organizations is firmly
established, will this erode all international sympathy for Chechen
separatists?

RFE/RL put this question to Alexander Rahr, program director at the German
Society for Foreign Affairs in Berlin.

He says there's always been a certain degree of sympathy among what he
called the European elite for the Chechen desire for greater autonomy. He
says the view goes like this:

"[Russia] has to find at least a 'modus vivendi' with not only Chechen
forces but maybe in the future with other ethnic nationalities in the
Russian federation who would like to leave the federation. Otherwise, they
believe, Russia would not be able to keep these ethnic minorities peaceably
in its state."

He also says sympathy for the Chechen cause is strong in parts of the
Muslim world.

"There is sympathy with the cause of Chechnya, with their aims to get
political and cultural autonomy within Russia. But in the majority of
Islamic countries there is no sympathy with terror because they must
understand that this kind of terror as practiced in Chechnya will not serve
the general Islamic cause and will create new hot spots in this area, which
will turn against Islamic states later as well as against Russia."

He says the conflict is likely to be regarded differently in the post-11
September world.

"The outside states like the U.S. and EU...[were] more -- not on the side
of the separatists -- but were urging Russia to keep the fight within a
civilized framework and fight terrorists with specific methods and not
doing things against human rights. Those forces will calm down now and have
to admit that in the global fight against terrorism, some Chechen forces
are directly involved. The former sympathy will change towards more radical
demands, also towards the leaders of Chechen separatists, to separate
themselves away from open terrorism which will be linked to bin Laden."

Frank Judd co-chairs the joint working group on Chechnya at the Council of
Europe's parliamentary assembly.

He says the 11 September attacks may color the debate over Chechnya.

"Obviously, people are worried about international terrorism and that does
affect the overall situation. There's no argument about that. But I think
you'll find that the feeling of solidarity with the people of Chechnya will
be as strong as ever."

Rahr says one good thing for Chechnya could come out of the global
antiterror campaign.

"I could guess that when bin Laden is finally caught, arrested or his
terrorist camps eliminated, the world or those who will do this -- the
U.S., NATO -- will find out what he really had done in Afghanistan, and
whether he was planning attacks not only on the U.S. but maybe also in
Chechnya against Russia. With the elimination of that organization in
Afghanistan, the terrorist structures that exist among Chechen rebels will
also be eliminated and some terrorists that still hide there, among the
separatists, would be arrested or liquidated or flee back to Saudi Arabia
or Jordan or elsewhere, because they wouldn't get the support from
Afghanistan, or from the Taliban."

He says this could then pave the way for a resolution to the conflict
between Chechens opposed to terror tactics and Russians fed up with the war.

*******

#13
Russian computer users struggle with Nimda virus
ITAR-TASS

Moscow, 27 September, ITAR-TASS correspondent Natalya Slavina: More than
500 calls for help to "cure the computer" of the Nimda virus are received
every day at the Kasperskiy Laboratory, the leading Russian company
developing anti-virus protection. Your ITAR-TASS correspondent was told
this today by company expert Svetlana Trofimova.

The Nimda virus was first discovered in the USA more than a week ago, and
in the course of three hours the number of infected computers throughout
the world topped 11,000. According to Trofimova, the epidemic in Russia
started after 21 September, when up to 1,000 computers were being infected
each day.

The expert put the rapid spread of the epidemic down to the fact that the
virus has no characteristic features and that it can enter computers via
the most diverse routes. Firstly, it hides in electronic mail, which only
needs to be opened in "preliminary view". Another way in which it spreads
is through many Internet sites.

"No decline in the global computer epidemic can be anticipated at present,"
the expert states. However, Trofimova stressed, protection against Nimda is
possible. You need either to update the database, or to "download" a
special anti-virus programme from the Kasperskiy Laboratory site, or to use
similar "fixes" from the Internet.

At the same time, Kasperskiy Laboratory experts have been warning Russian
internet users of the appearance of a new virus, which, unlike Nimda, can
be identified. It enters computers "attached" to the e-mail message, "Let
there be peace between America and Islam!", which asks recipients to vote
for or against war between the USA and Islamic terrorists.

*******

#14
Russian parliament faction drafts new farmland sale bill
Russian news agency RIA

Moscow, 27 September: If its climatic potential is used skilfully and
effectively Russia could not only meet all of its internal demand for grain
but could export up to 100m tonnes of cereals a year, according to Viktor
Semenov, a member of the Fatherland-All Russia faction in the State Duma
and a former agriculture minister, speaking at a news conference in Moscow
on Thursday [27 September].

The RIA-Novosti correspondent reports him as saying that Russia could not
only earn up to 15bn dollars a year from grain exports but could also earn
up to 12bn dollars a year in addition by exporting quality and
environmentally safe livestock products.

Semenov said the Fatherland movement supports agricultural producers,
whatever the form of ownership. He said he was in favour of the development
both of large-scale vertically integrated holding companies and of small
and medium business in agriculture. "We will support any efficient
landowner," the former minister said.

Answering journalists' questions, Semenov said that the Fatherland-All
Russia faction is currently engaged in drafting its own version of a bill
to regulate the sale of agricultural land. He refused to be drawn on the
details of the bill but said that the main point was "not to spark off
artificial speculation in land". Semenov spoke in favour of a "measured
approach" to the possibility of selling agricultural land to foreigners. He
said he opposed "agricultural xenophobia". "Foreigners do not have the
money to buy up all our land," Semenov insisted.

*******

#15
"Russia's European way" stressed as Putin details economic reforms
ITAR-TASS

Essen, 26 September: Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the doors for
reforms in Russia have never been opened as wide as they are now.

Meeting German business and political circles on Wednesday [26 September],
the Russian president said "the process of strengthening statehood should be
closely linked with the development of public and civilian institutions".
"This is Russia's European way," he added.

Putin said that Russia's own economic measurement is also of great importance
because Russia should take part in creating an all-European economic space.

He recalled that EU countries account for up to 40 per cent of Russia's trade
and EU investments in Russia amount to 64 per cent. "This proves of mutual
complementariness of our economies," he added.

Commenting on the situation in the Russian economy, the president said that
"what has been done for the economic development for the last 1.5 years is
considered as practically impossible".

Putin noted the importance of tax reform, the essence of which is to reduce
the fiscal burden. The abolition of tax benefits made the tax system more
transparent, he said.

The president spoke about a package of laws on de-bureaucratization of the
Russian economy. He described it as "liberalization of business activities"
and noted that from 1 July 2002, it will take five days in maximum instead of
three months to register a new business in Russia.

Putin stressed that "the licence procedure has been streamlined and
codified". The quantity of businesses requiring licences falls to 104. The
president believes that "their number is rather big, but we see what we will
do".

Putin said that the 2002 budget was drafted in such a way as to provide for a
surplus. "This is the budget of a really liberal economy because it is
drafted on a strongly renovated legislation base," he said.

The budget envisages foreign debts payments. "We are accurately paying debts,
but almost alone without any refinancing," he noted. "Only for the first half
of this year our foreign debt is reduced by more than 2.6bn dollars," the
Russian president said.

******

#16
Uzbek militant's terror threat to former Soviet republics

TASHKENT, Sept 27 (AFP) -
The Islamist Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which Washington has singled out
as a target in its anti-terrorist war, is one of former Soviet Central
Asia's most feared violent Islamist organizations.

One of 29 "designated foreign terrorist organizations" listed by the US
State Department, it has signaled its presence through hostage-takings and
armed incursions in Uzbekistan and into neighbouring states.

IMU achieved notoriety during the summer of 1999 when it held four Japanese
geologists hostage in Kyrgyzstan for more than two months, and the
following year it kidnapped several American mountain climbers.

Uzbek authorities also blame the organizations for a series of bomb blasts
which killed 16 people and wounded over 100 in Tashkent in February 1999.

Six Islamist militants were sentenced to death following the attacks.

Last November, the Uzbek supreme court sentenced the IMU's founder and
leader, Jumaboy Namangani, 32, to death following a trial in absentia.

Namangani's ultimate aim is to establish an Islamic state in the Fergana
valley, divided between Kirgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

An ally of the Taliban and an implacable foe of President Islam Karimov's
authoritarian regime, he is currently based in the northeastern Afghan city
of Talogan where he commands between 2,500 and 5,000 Uzbek, Uigur and Arab
guerrillas, Tajik military sources said.

The man who now goes under the name of Namangani was born June 12, 1969, as
Jumaboy Khajiyev, in the eastern Uzbek Namangan region.

In 1987, he was called up for for military service in the Soviet army and
fought in Afghanistan as a paratrooper.

After returning to Uzbekistan following the Soviet pullout, he became
acquainted with Islamist circles, particularly the strongly puritanical
Wahhabite movement.

In 1992, as a civil war erupted in Tajikistan between the former communists
and the Islamist opposition, he left Uzbekistan to fight there on the
Islamist side.

At the height of the war, which ended in 1997 with many Islamists joining a
coalition government, Namangani commanded over 1,000 men.

After the fighting ended, he remained in Tajikistan, launching armed raids
into Uzbekistan via Kyrgyzstan in 1999 and 2000.

Dozens of people were killed in these actions, both in Namangani's ranks
and among Kyrgyz and Uzbek forces.

As tensions mounted between Dushanbe and Tashkent, he was forced to leave
Tajikistan in May 2000 and crossed into Afghanistan with 500 of his men and
their families.

However he has retained strong supports and trusted friends in Tajikistan,
including Emergencies ministry and former Islamist commander Mirzo Zioyev.

Uzbek authorities say Namangani's movement is funded by the Saudi-born
Islamist millionaire Osama bin Laden, whom Washington believes to have
masterminded the September 11 suicide attacks in New York and Washington.

*******

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