November 1, 2000   

This Date's Issues:   4612 • 4613 • 4614

Johnson's Russia List
#4613
1 November 2000
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. Washington Post: Sarah Schafer, E-mail Fosters Misunderstandings at the Office.
2. RFE/RL: Ron Synovitz, OECD Praises Putin For Signs Of Advances In Economy.
3. Reuters: Russian official sees no big change to media law.
4. The Straits Times (Singapore): John Helmer, RUSSIA DEFIES US EMBARGO BY SUPPLYING AWACS TO CHINA.
5. Interfax: RUTSKOI SAYS PUTIN HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ELECTION SCANDAL IN KURSK REGION.
6. Moscow Times: Yulia Latynina, Rutskoi a Fine Example of Russia's 'Best'
7. Curtin Winsor: Forget Russia?
8. John Hansen: Forget Russia.
9. Valentine Smith: On the question of "ascendency of forget Russia in Washington...,"
10. Andrew Miller: JRL #4612 Invitation.
11. Segodnya: DO WE NEED POWER IN STRIPES? (Interview with Yuri KOBALADZE "who had been head of the PR bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service")
12. Rossiiskaya Gazeta - Biznes v Rossii: Goskomstat Reports: BASIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS.
13. The Independent (UK): Charles Arthur, One giant leap, three astronauts and two days to turn a page in space history.
14. Wall Street Journal: Andrew Higgins, Anti-American Song 'Kill the Yankees' Develops a Strong Following in Russia.]


******


#1
Excerpt
Washington Post
October 31, 2000
E-mail Fosters Misunderstandings at the Office
By Sarah Schafer


The problem, say those who have studied online communication, is that the
rapid-fire e-mail message arrives without all the facial expressions, body
language and vocal cues that richly color most human conversation. Humor,
sarcasm and double entendres--best delivered with a smile, a raised eyebrow
or smirk--often fall flat or are taken literally in e-mail exchanges....


The anonymity people feel behind a screen and keyboard often exacerbate
e-mail miscommunications. Simple note exchanges often devolve into venomous
sessions of e-mail ping-pong.


"The overall effect [of e-mail] makes for a kind of disinhibition, and people
say things that they would not normally say face to face or any other way and
it gets some people in trouble," said Kerry J. Sulkowicz, a New York
psychiatrist and president of the Boswell Group, a consulting firm on the
psychology of management.


******


#2
Russia: OECD Praises Putin For Signs Of Advances In Economy
By Ron Synovitz


Russia is a long way from attaining membership in the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). But the Paris-based institution
is praising talks yesterday between its chief and Russian President Vladimir
Putin as a good sign for Russia's economic reforms.


Prague, 31 October 2000 (RFE/RL) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin's talks
in Paris with the head of the OECD today are seen by the institution as a
signal Moscow is ready to move forward on economic reforms.


The OECD groups 29 economically developed countries, with the aim of
promoting stable growth by sharing economic data. Russia is not a member, but
Moscow has cooperated with OECD researchers even before Russia's formal
request for membership in 1996.


The talks today between Putin and OECD Secretary-General Donald Johnston are
the highest level of contact since Putin became president this year.


Eric Burgeat, who directs the OECD's Center for Cooperation with Non-Members,
also attended the meeting. Burgeat told RFE/RL that the momentum of
cooperation with Russia has been renewed.


"It is very important for the secretary-general of the OECD to hear
[directly] from President Putin...to hear from him what are Russia's main
priority policy issues. It shows a commitment by the [Russian] government to
speed up the process of reform. And also, it can help us to better target our
program of cooperation on the really critical issues."


Putin is in the middle of a three-day visit to Paris with a focus on
improving economic cooperation with the European Union and institutions like
the OECD. Putin said yesterday he is happy about progress in talks with
French President Jacques Chirac. France currently holds the rotating post of
the EU presidency.


"I greatly appreciate the fact that President Chirac has demonstrated a firm
political will to develop relations between the European Union and Russia in
all directions, and more importantly, in the sphere of economics and
ecological safety."


For their part, officials from the EU and the OECD have been eager to hear
more from Putin about his economic reforms. Burgeat says the Russian program
looks good on paper. But he tells RFE/RL that more information was sought on
the implementation of the plans.


"We see it as a very ambitious program. A key element there will be how it is
implemented and how the Russian government will establish the capacity in the
public administration, both at the center and in the regions, to implement
that very ambitious program."


Despite the optimism expressed by Burgeat, the OECD still has a long list of
recommendations for Moscow that must be followed before Russia can join the
elite group. But once a member, Russia can expect investor confidence to rise
and risk assessments by international credit rating agencies to be upgraded.


The OECD says Russia's failure to collect taxes efficiently and fairly
continues to be one of the greatest obstacles in the transition to market
economics. Russia has adopted some tax policy recommendations from the OECD
in an attempt to bolster the budget and reduce the amount of money illegally
sent abroad by tax evaders. But the OECD says the Kremlin needs to reinforce
the rule of law by improving public governance.


Protection for foreign investors also is high on the list of OECD priorities.
OECD research shows that potential investors have little confidence in
Russia's legislative environment. The lack of adequate property and
contractual rights, as well as sufficient bankruptcy laws, are just a few
examples of the legislation being urged.


The organization says it wants to see regulatory agencies created to oversee
private pension funds, capital markets, and institutional investors.


The OECD says the reliability of economic statistics in Russia needs to be
improved, despite nearly 10 years of work on the issue. Russia now uses the
internationally accepted system of national accounting. But the OECD says
statistics remain unreliable because so much economic activity in Russia is
clandestine.


OECD agriculture reports say the emergence of profitable private farming in
Russia has been blocked by problems with the market infrastructure --
including the lack of land ownership rights and short-term credits for small
farmers.


Under a joint project between the OECD and the World Bank, a roundtable on
Russian corporate governance is planned for Nov. 15 and 16 in Moscow. The
panel is preparing research that the OECD expects will boost internal reforms
as well as international efforts to help with those reforms.


Members of the OECD include the United States, the European Union and other
advanced industrial countries. Three of the leading EU candidate states in
Central Europe -- Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic -- became OECD
members in 1996. Slovakia's application has been approved and is expected to
formally take effect in a few weeks.


*******


#3
Russian official sees no big change to media law
By Mike Collett-White

LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The head of Russia's Security Council, which
drafted an information doctrine seen by critics as a clampdown on newspapers
and television, said on Tuesday he saw little need for new laws to regulate
the media.


President Vladimir Putin signed the doctrine in September amid accusations
from Russian journalists that his administration was keeping in check media
critical of Kremlin policies.


But Sergei Ivanov, secretary of the increasingly powerful Security Council,
told reporters in London that Russian authorities would not encroach on press
freedom as long as national security and individuals' rights to privacy were
preserved.


"The Security Council is for the full freedom of speech, people's right to
access to information and even the punishment of those deliberately
concealing information from people," he told a news briefing at the Russian
embassy.


One of the authors of the doctrine, Anatoly Streltsov, has said it might
require changes to a liberal media law dating back to the heyday of
"glasnost," the opening up of Russian society, under Soviet leader Mikhail
Gorbachev.


But Ivanov appeared keen to play down such a possibility.


"My personal opinion is that I do not see the need for a major change to
legislation on mass media which is already in place," he said.


Russian political analysts have interpreted the doctrine as a move towards
more authoritarian rule under Putin.


They say its stress on building up state media and countering perceived
threats to "national interests" from foreign news organisations highlighted
the growing role of the security services under Putin, a former KGB agent.


Ivanov said that there must be "compliance with the law to protect state
secrets" as well as individuals' right to privacy.


He quoted the example of Britain, where newspapers have entered into an
industry self-regulation agreement aimed at protecting celebrities and
royalty from intrusion.


Putin's adoption of the doctrine followed a series of bruising feuds between
the Kremlin and media magnates like Boris Berezovsky and Vladimir Gusinsky.


Gusinsky, owner of Russia's only independent television network NTV, was
jailed briefly this year on embezzlement charges in what he said was an
attempt by the authorities to intimidate his media outlets.


He said last month he had agreed to sign over his NTV shares to state-owned
gas monopoly Gazprom, but denied the deal was valid, because it was made
under pressure from the authorities.


Berezovsky, the one-time Kremlin insider turned vocal Putin critic, has also
said the Kremlin was forcing him to give up his 49 percent private stake in
ORT public television.


*******


#4
From: "John Helmer" <helmer@atom.ru>
Subject: RUSSIA DEFIES US EMBARGO BY SUPPLYING AWACS TO CHINA
Date: Wed, 1 Nov 2000


The Straits Times (Singapore), November 2
RUSSIA DEFIES US EMBARGO BY SUPPLYING AWACS TO CHINA
>From John Helmer in Moscow


It has taken a little more than three months for the Chinese and Russian
governments to agree on a substitute for a major military
technology deal, which Washington blocked in mid-July.


Russia agreed this week to supply China with the A-50 airborne radar system,
according to reports in Moscow. They confirm a statement in Beijing this week
by Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov, who is preparing for the
visit on Friday and Saturday by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov.


Speculation that China would turn to Russia for the air control technology
began in July, after Israel agreed to a United States demand that it cancel
the sale to China of several Phalcon radar systems worth at least US$250
million.The
cancellation was announced by Israel on July 13.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing four days later,
and promised President Jiang Zemin to consider supplying the Russian-
made version of the radar system.


Comparable to the US-built Advanced Warning and Air Control System (AWACS),
the Israeli Phalcon and Russian A-50 would give China's airforces the
capability to monitor a large number of attacking aircraft, and coordinate
an attack of its own.


The Israeli offer of the Phalcon included installation in the Russian-built
Ilyushin-76, a four-engine jet with a range of about 3,000 kilometres.


Russian sources claimed this week that China is seeking at least five of the
aerial command posts. Two models are to be leased for immediate operation.
Five more will be fitted with new equipment for the advanced A-50E version
by the Moscow Scientific Research Institute of Instrument Engineering.


Prime Minister Kasyanov will also agree this weekend on the construction of
new vessels for the People's Liberation Navy, to follow the two that
have just been completed by a St. Petersburg shipbuilding yard, and a third
that has been ordered.


According to Svetlana Yermolayeva, spokesperson for Northern Shipyard,
the yard is dependent on the Chinese naval orders for most of its work.
"At the moment 20% to 30% percent of the production capacity is in use,"
she told Straits Times. "A considerable part of our production site is
standing idle. We are building one ship and repairing three Russian
submarines. In the days of the Soviet Union, up to 17 ships used to be under
construction in our shipyard simultaneously. Last year only two ships were
under way."


"At the moment," Yermolayeva added, "we are finishing the second
torpedo-boat for China. The first one was done last year. Al in all, the
contract calls for three boats."


*******


#5
RUTSKOI SAYS PUTIN HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH ELECTION SCANDAL IN KURSK REGION


MOSCOW. Oct 31 (Interfax) - Governor of the Kursk region Alexander
Rutskoi told Interfax on Tuesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin
has nothing to do with the decision made by the Kursk regional court to
exclude him from the gubernatorial elections.
"I'm 100% sure that Vladimir Putin has nothing to do with this
decision. Really, has he any time to think about all this nonsense?,"
Rutskoi said.
He stated, however, that he is "expecting the Supreme Court to
reach a positive decision, guided by the Russian law."
"The arguments of the Kursk regional court which excluded me from
the elections have been utterly destroyed by the proof [I have
provided]. The court ruling was absolutely unfounded," Rutskoi said,
adding that he is ready to attend the hearings of his case at the
Supreme Court on November 2.
Regarding recent publications about the Kremlin's "black list of
objectionable governors", Rutskoi said, "These materials are leading to
many questions and doubts, and they are alarming."


*******


#6
Moscow Times
November 1, 2000
INSIDE RUSSIA: Rutskoi a Fine Example of Russia's 'Best'
By Yulia Latynina


The Kremlin's war against the governors has finally begun in earnest. On the
eve of voting in the Kursk region, local election authorities removed the
clear favorite, incumbent Governor Alexander Rutskoi, from the ballots. This
action was taken in response to complaints from rival candidates, including
Federal Security Service, or FSB, General Viktor Surzhikov.


Even against the background of Russia's idiotic governors, Rutskoi stood out
as a particularly primitive case. It is still nearly impossible to believe
that he managed to install so many of his relatives in leadership positions
in his region.


Rutskoi's son Dmitry, for example, was named the director of the company
Kurskfarmatsia, the only organization authorized by the Rutskoi
administration to supply medicine to local pharmacies.


The governor's father-in-law, Anatoly Popov, was appointed deputy governor
and his son's wife's father, Yury Donchenko, was made head of the State
Property Fund.


And it doesn't end there. Rutskoi's brother Mikhail is the director of a
company called Faktor, which combines most of the agricultural concerns in
the region. Another son is the deputy director of Kurskneftekhim, a private
company co-founded by the local administration and a Moscow-based company
called RUA (which is wholly controlled personally by Governor Rutskoi).


Obviously, such a determined effort to centralize local financial activity
met with harsh opposition from other local businessmen. They joined together
against Rutskoi, choosing as their leader Surzhikov.


The Kursk prosecutor charged the governor with malfeasance and filed a
criminal case against his brother. Two of Rutskoi's deputies spent time in
prison charged with stealing from the local budget.


In response, Rutskoi ran straight to the pro-Kremlin Unity party and, thanks
to his friend Boris Berezovsky, became practically the first supporter of
future president Vladimir Putin.


Rutskoi's support was amply rewarded. Putin spent the day after his
inauguration in Kursk. Immediately after this visit, the Kursk prosecutor was
fired and opposition leader Surzhikov was sent to Volgograd. In exchange,
Rutskoi supported Putin's reform of the Federation Council. He even argued
that governors should not be popularly elected but appointed by the Kremlin.
"Let them represent the president," he told the council on June 7.


However, Rutskoi's joy was short-lived. Implementing his "divide and conquer"
strategy, Putin returned Surzhikov to Kursk as a federal inspector. Rutskoi
was shocked by the president's ingratitude and was unable to restrain himself
during the Kursk submarine disaster in August. Putin was still vacationing in
Sochi when Rutskoi showed up in Murmansk.


The Rutskoi story is really about the incompetence of the FSB as it takes
over from the all-too-competent team of Berezovsky. That team would have
taken just days to expose the corrupt and incompetent Rutskoi regime. But
even this simple task was beyond the ability of Surzhikov. Instead, he chose
to put himself between Rutskoi and Putin.


Now, instead of being revealed as a corrupt petty dictator, Rutskoi is a
victim of an oppressive regime. Only an FSB general could pull off such a
"victory."


Yulia Latynina is the creator and host of "The Ruble Zone" on NTV television.


*******


#7
From: Ambcurt@aol.com (Curtin Winsor)
Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2000
Subject: forget Russia?


I would take issue with this assumption. The election will determine the
course of future US policies, but either way Russia cannot help but be
important. Admittedly not overwhelmingly important, but a major player. Her
various arsenals (nuclear, cbw) will preoccupy an arms control oriented Gore
Administration. Russia's potential for mischief in China and elsewhere, plus
trade possibilities will sustain the interest of a Bush Administration.


*******


#8
From: "John M. Hansen" <jmhansen@erols.com>
Subject: Forget Russia
Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2000


Forgetting Russia would probably be the best policy, at least if
Bush wins, as it will take them some time to realize that they have
to do something real in terms of converting over to either a
capitalist or a totalitarian state. At present, there is a total
lack of focus and direction in all of the changes coming out of the
former USSR. Until they decide where they are headed, and looting a
country is not a direction, they will have to swing in the breeze.
Under these circumstances, the more money pumped in, the more will
be sucked out.
Loaning money to a gambling addict is as quick a way to throw
money away as is known to man.


*******


#9
Date: Tue, 31 Oct 2000
From: Valentine Smith <cedell@earthlink.net>
Subject: On the question of "ascendency of forget Russia in Washington...,"


[DJ: This is a message sent by Valentine Smith to his own list.]


The question posed today by David Johnson to his excellent list, David
Johnson's Russia List, that I have been primarily a passive reader of
these past few years. Some of the great heavyweights of Soviet and
Russia studies are participants on this list, and I'm but a rank amateur
on the sidelines compared to almost all of them. I don't even speak
Russian! All I have is a BA in Russian history, two two month visits in
1993 and 1994, and a thirty year passion about Russia to go on. With
those caveats offered, I would proffer some thoughts anyway.


I think Russia represents for most analysts a quagmire so complex, and
with so many facets, that most 'laymen" are overwhelmed, and most
specialists tend to focus on one or two aspects, unable (like most of
us) to get a good handle on the whole. In the nine years since the
attempted putsch, Russia has slowly been sliding into the dual abyss of
more and more criminality (with its accompanying violence) and
increasing corruption. The economy is in tatters, and perhaps as much as
$200 billion has vanished into Switzerland, the Caribbean banking system
and elsewhere since 1989. A very few have gotten rich, while most of
Russia gets poorer and poorer. The IMF and World Bank bailouts appear to
have been mostly stolen.


Leadership at the top appears to be shaky at best (Yeltsin's last four
years appear to been mostly an exercise in how _not_ to do anything
positive and still get by while things got worse), or by non-entity or
crony politics. The Berezovskys and their ilk have gotten away with
grand theft on a scale only matched by the narco-terrorists of South
America, and their counterparts, the Russian mafiya (see Paul
Klebnikov's 2000 book, Godfather of the Kremlin, Boris Berezovsky and
the Looting of Russia).


So, why would anyone in Washington _want_ to dip themselves into this
cesspool of sewage? Unfortunately, this attitude, which I agree
prevails, ignores the dangers of China encroaching on Russian natural
resources in the Far East, the potential fragmenting of Russia itself,
the horrible (and racist) Second Chechen War, which runs on and on
without "victory" for _anybody_, or the export of stolen nuclear weapons
finally getting by the so-far alert Western intelligence and police
apparats to be used in some gruesome act of terrorism somewhere in the
world (I still believe New York City remains the top of such a target
list).


Yet, media coverage of the Chechen conflict is almost non-existent, save
on DJRL, and occasional articles elsewhere, but rarely to any effect.
The corruption/crime issues are the subject of books, such as
Handelman's 1995 Comrade Criminal and the afore-mentioned Klebnikov
book, but it seems that the Russian mafiya's growing influence in
American financial affairs raises no great questions in the American
Congress or the White House (or is that they have corrupted some of them
too?). If the CIA or the FBI is concerned about such things, they sure
haven't voiced such in public to any great degree.


What _appears_ to be going on is to, bluntly speaking, is "let the
bastards sink or swim on their own." One senses a great deal of
hostility about Russia in the higher layers of American government,
perhaps because many see the aid money we have given has having been
thrown down a rat hole with no results save enriching a _very_ small
group of very corrupt folks (the oligarchs, that mysterious - to most
Americans save those of us interested - group of individuals who have
served their people quite rottenly while enriching themselves
immensely). also, when a former Lieutenant Colonel of the KGB can rise
in less than three years to the Presidency (and whose first act was to
"pardon" Yeltsin and his thieving family from all past "crimes"), things
are not right in that ailing country at all.


I, for one, albeit an outsider and an amateur, have not "forgotten"
Russia. I stay in touch with my few really close friends there by
e-mail, periodically (not often enough, I know) write about what I see
going on (or not) there, and despair for the basically suffering general
populace of that fascinating, dark and incredibly Byzantine place that I
love so dearly and find such a mystery in so many ways. I read as much
as I can, pay attention to the disasters (plane crashes, oil and
radiation leaks, fires, and submarine sinkings) that seem to be on the
increase as time passes, and worry about what _would_ happen if Russia
came apart, or China decided that Russia was weak enough to snatch
pieces of its territories.


Can we, the Americans, or the West more generally, afford to "forget
Russia?" I don't think so, which makes the current atmosphere in the US
capitol David refers to all that much more ominous. It would seem, from
strategic considerations alone, that the deteriorating military and
economic situation in Russia would be of _great_ concern in washington
and elsewhere, but an awful lot of "official" Washington seems locked
into NIMB (Not in My Backyard, so why worry about it?).


Admittedly, Russians do not want "Western solutions." I heard this over
and over when I was there, along with continual defenses about the
absence of the rule of law there. I suspect that most Russians see "law"
as part of the problem, not any solution, as most law is _still_ used
against the masses, and for the benefit of the few (such as the tax
laws, which may be why 60% of Russians don't pay their taxes most
years). Things like work shirking, lying and stealing, always a problem
in the past 80-300 years (depends on degree), continue unabated as I
suspect most Russians see no other path that makes sense given the
layers and levels of corruption and "official thievery" they see every
day, or hear about, or are subjected to. At least four times since 1991,
one currency action or another has wiped out large segments of the
population's savings or monies in hand (I was there for two of them; the
banning of all pre-'93 currency that July, and "Black Tuesday" on 11
October, 1994). The tax police, customs, the police and the mafiya, not
to mention corrupt government officials at all levels and areas of
governance, are rapacious jackals, feeding on a carcass that doesn't
have much more to give.


This indifference in the West only feeds the growth of further
disintegration, I do think that there is very little that the West can
do, however. What we _should_ do is keep awareness high, get more folks
to paying attention, analyzing and publicizing, and not letting the
Russian government off the hook about its criminals, its corruption, the
theft of so much Western money, and the Chechen war (I thought that
about China too - in terms of not letting off the hook about their theft
of intellectual property, US nuclear secrets, the continued
occupation/repression of Tibet and their incredibly bad human rights
record - and here the US went and gave them "permanent" MFN status, a
total error to my thinking).


So, Russia will keep on being ignored, and I believe it is a terrible
error on the part of the United States and the West. "VMS"


*******


#10
From: "Andrew Miller" <andcarmil@hotmail.com>
Subject: JRL #4612 Invitation
Date: Wed, 01 Nov 2000


In reply to your query about the ascendancy of the "forget Russia" school
in Washington I think the answers are: 1) yes, it's true that the U.S.
has adopted a "forget Russia" attitude; (2) this is good; (3) the
consequences will be positive for all concerned.


First, let's just remember that the government in Washington has exactly
one purpose: to serve the American people. Based on the objective facts
of Russia's behavior over the last ten years, can anyone articulate any
reason at all that the average American should want to remember Russia,
believe anything he is told by a Russian leader, or hope for any democratic
activity from his Russian counterpart? How could it possibly serve his
interests for the government to walk back into the casino and plop down
more money on the wheel of fortune, the pole chudes?


The only really significant idea I've heard on Russia in the post-Soviet
era, as far as US-Russian relations are concerned, is the thrilling idea of
Condoleeza Rice that a Bush administration would write off the Kremlin
entirely and conduct it's foreign policy with Russia directly, on a
business-to-business, person-to-person level. The only success stories
that can be told of Russia in the last decade are such examples, where
foreign money and support has gone directly to Russian entrepreneurs and
public activists. Forget Russia! But remember the Russians.


Because the salient reality concerning the Kremlin and all that is official
Russia is twofold: (1) it is bankrupt; (2) it is evil. Furthermore, it is
bankrupt because it is evil, and because it is bankrupt its evil is, except
so far as Russians themselves are concerned, simply silly and not worth
worrying about.


Per capita Russian production is perhaps $5 per day. What if it suddenly
quintupled? Would Russia be really scary then? Well, the U.S. for example
is around $100 per day, and the US has many allies. Russia has North
Korea, maybe Iraq. Russia is economically insignificant as a market, yet
it is a member of the G-8. Russia's military is falling apart, publicly
and literally, yet it is a member of the UN security council. Why isn't
Brazil in the G-8? Because it lacks nuclear weapons? Does this mean by
admitted Russia to the G-8 we encourage Brazil to go nuclear? Why isn't
India in the security council? It's population and GDP dwarf that of
Russia, and it has nukes. Our previous policy of "remember Russia" simply
doesn't make sense.


And the salient reality about the Russian people is that they don't get the
salient reality of the Kremlin. Germans have realized that they went wrong
with Hitler, and they are doing much to avoid any repetition. Americans
see that they betrayed civilization when they took black slaves and wiped
out tribes of Indians. Now they try to atone. Russians are doing nothing
at all, and neither constructive engagement nor cold war confrontation has
had any effect on that reality. "Forget Russia" is the option that's left.


By its every act and word over the last ten years, from Vladimir
Zhirinovsky on Alaska to Yuri Luzhkokv on foreigners in Moscow, from the
KGB spokesman Primakov to the KGB president Putin to the Communist
legislator, Russia has unambiguously said to the world: "We don't disavow
our past. We don't like foreigners, and couldn't care less what they think.
Please go away and leave us alone."


It's time we did that. It's time we took the only logical and reasonable
step that can be taken toward Russia, an addict nation hooked on lies and
illusions. Let them hit bottom and ask for help, really decide, for
themselves, to do something new, or destroy themselves. Meanwhile, try to
make some kind of coherent plan as to how we would deliver that help if it
were asked for. This could be a fascinating occupation of the JRL. Any
professional counselor would tell you that this is the only way to deal
with an addict. Let's try it. Having lived four years in Russia, I feel
confident in saying that the Russians won't be able to stand being ignored.
It will get to them. So will the economic debacle that is speeding toward
them, and the endless struggle of Chechnya. And then who knows what might
happen.
Andrew Miller
St. Petersburg, Russia


*******


#11
Segodnya
November 1, 2000
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
DO WE NEED POWER IN STRIPES?
How justified is the growing number of representatives of
special services in power? Yuri KOBALADZE, who had been head of
the PR bureau of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Russia for
a long time, answers this and other questions in an interview
he granted to Avtandil TSULADZE of Segodnya.

Question: What do you think about the "march of generals
into power"?
Answer: This is not a new problem for us. Russia is
probably the only country of the civilised world where
servicemen play such a major role. In Soviet times, the
military were kept back by the party and its Central Committee.
A year ago, when Primakov brought two intelligence men to the
government, the press shouted that the KGB was snatching power.
The situation is completely different now. We are again losing
a sense of proportion and common sense.
I can understand the logic of Vladimir Putin: he inherited
a country in a dramatic situation and is trying to resolve
problems facing him by relying on those whom he knows well. But
the question is, how competent they are to fulfil these tasks?
This is a question of fundamental significance. Stripes do not
matter.
The main thing is for them to be the right men for the job. Why
did the president appoint as his plenipotentiary
representatives in federal districts men who are loyal and
patriotic, but who do not have requisite economic knowledge or
experience of working with production staff? Kiriyenko is the
most qualified of them all.
The main thing now is to prevent this trend from leading
us into a dead-end.

Question: The drafts of reforms were frequently hatched in
the special services. Why?
Answer: Indeed, liberal ideas could appear in the special
services, and this is not paradoxical. Those who headed
repressive structures were bound to see that the methods used
by special services to rule the country would not help us surge
ahead. My generation, those who worked in the intelligence
services and abroad, saw the gap between the words and the
deeds.
We saw that the Soviet Union was losing the main race, the
economic one, and how far it lagged behind the West in terms of
living standards.
Naturally enough, liberal ideas dawned on our intelligence
men, who saw that something much be changed in their home
country. No wonder that perestroika was welcomed so heartily in
the special services, too. But the appearance of generals in
politics must be limited and determined by their professional
qualities.

Question: But nobody seems to put to doubt the fact that
the authorities are relying on the power structures...
Answer: I feel certain discomfort because this trend is
growing. New elections bring more generals to the bodies of
power. But one must have certain knowledge to be able to head a
region that is several times larger than France. It is not
enough to be loyal, to share the policy of the party and to
fluctuate together with it. The economy is completely different
today. I doubt very much that they will succeed.

Question: The FSB is being actively involved in politics
now.
Answer: This is very bad. The FSB must do what it is
designed to do, namely catch spies, combat terrorism, the drug
business, and so on. Otherwise we will never enter the
civilised way. Courts are impotent in this country, and the
law-enforcement system is not working. The law must be
effective.

Question: That is, we keep rushing from one extreme to
another?
Answer: Extremes are our national sport. We must somehow
survive this period. We need managers, independent, thinking
and educated people. The main task now is to avoid revolutions
and shocks. It is of interest that more people came to mark the
day of victims of Stalin's persecution campaigns this year than
in the past few years. If this is a spontaneous trend, the
Kremlin should think about what goes on. Are we again provoking
the revival of fear?

Question: Is dictatorship technically possible in Russia
now?
Answer: No, this would be very difficult to do
technically, because there are no requisite resources. Besides,
I don't think Putin has set himself this goal. But it is
possible to restore the atmosphere when the people would be
afraid to openly discuss problems.

Question: Some political technologists, who stand close to
power, believe that such psychological pressure will benefit
the country.
Answer: If so, this is truly horrible. Short-term tasks
can be fulfilled but this will not benefit us in the long run.
I am working for an investment company now and feel especially
strongly how badly we need political stability, responsible
statements by politicians and practical government decisions in
order to attract investments into Russia. Investments go down
when individual [negative] episodes merge to form a certain
picture and planned anti-Russian actions are taken abroad.
Now is the time of waiting. I see positive trends in this
country. And I sincerely want the next president to inherit not
ruins, but a certain bridgehead from which we would be able to
continue our movement ahead.

******


#12
Rossiiskaya Gazeta - Biznes v Rossii
No. 42
[translation from RIA Novosti for personal use only]
Excerpt
Goskomstat Reports: BASIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INDICATORS
BETTER FEWER BUT BETTER
By Yevgeny VASILCHUK

According to the State Statistics Committee (Goskomstat)
of Russia, in January-September 2000 industrial production
index was 109.7 percent, as against the relevant last year's
figure, and in September 2000 - 107.2 percent, as against last
September.
In September, compared to August, the seasonally adjusted
index of average daily production was 100.7 percent. Both the
government and independent economists predicted a slowdown in
industrial growth rates. In particular, forecast estimates of
the Ministry of Economic Development for 2001 envisage a
slowdown in industrial growth to 4-5 percent.
The exhaustion of the "import-replacement" effect due to
the strengthening of the real exchange rate of the rouble and
the declining competitiveness of domestic goods is usually
blamed as the main inhibitor. In the opinion of Sergei
Prudnikov, an analyst with the Troika-Dialog investment
company, the August upsurge in industrial growth by 10.2
percent was an extraordinary event caused, probably, by the
fulfilment of a large contract. According to his forecast, in
October-December, production will grow at an annual 5-7
percent; the overall industrial growth for 2000 will reach
8.5-9 percent, compared to last year's growth of 8.1 percent.
This forecast fits well into the scenario of a "cooler"
industrial and economic situation projected in the estimates of
the Ministry of Economic Development, which are supplemented to
the draft 2001 budget. However, the real picture of the current
production growth and its forecast scenarios and factors looks
somewhat different.
Despite considerable seasonal fluctuations, this year
Goskomstat has registered a fairly stable industrial growth
rate in a running total, i.e., a no less than 10 percent annual
growth, though with a clear-cut tendency towards a slowdown.
So, it would not be correct to speak of any August "upsurge" in
this situation.
Apart from this, dynamics of the cycle of general economic
activity follows its own laws at all stages, i.e., depression -
revival - upsurge - recession. Industry is not an exception
here, but rather a nearly textbook proof of mid-term unevenness
of development, largely linked to the quarterly principle of
planning production programmes and submitting enterprises'
financial reports.
The import-replacement hypothesis is also a controversial
issue as it is not confirmed by statistical data. True, the
autumn 1998 devaluation of the rouble spurred domestic
producers on to action. However, industrial growth continued
with a stable exchange rate of the rouble, and even during its
real strengthening. If industrial growth had depended only on
the devaluation or import-replacement, it would have stopped by
the end of last year, or in 4-6 months after the start of the
rouble stabilisation period in the middle of 1999.
Moreover, the share of imports in retail trade turnover
increased from 38 percent in the first half of 1999 to 46
percent now. What kind of import-replacement is this?
Therefore, the main regulating factors of industrial
growth are, undoubtedly, the laws of development of the
internal Russian market, the enhancement of financial
discipline, and the start of an active structural reform in
industry. This is evidenced by a surge in imports, growing
investments in fixed capital, and the revival of interregional
cooperation and economic contacts. Economic growth is not
petering out, but becoming stable and balanced, based not on
the squandering of natural resources, but on the production of
new commodities. Such growth could be stopped only by an
unfavourable turn in the foreign economic situation and errors
in economic regulation.
As is known, the most unpleasant tendency in the economy
is the growing weakness of the investment base, i.e., the
people's savings. Whereas in spring and the June-July period,
savings grew at a rate of 17-19 percent of incomes (by 50-58
billion roubles a month), in August this indicator dropped to
11.9 percent (37 billion roubles, according to the data of
Goskomstat and the Bank of Russia). The savings growth
structure had also worsened sharply: the share of deposits and
financial investment fell from 5.5 percent in May-June to 2.7
percent in August. Moreover, despite the strengthening of the
real exchange rate of the rouble, the purchase of hard currency
over the same period increased from 6 to 7.5 percent of
incomes, respectively. Which means that industry can rely only
on its own funds and profits.

*******


#13
The Independent (UK)
1 November 2000
One giant leap, three astronauts and two days to turn a page in space history
By Charles Arthur, Technology Editor


Some time tomorrow, Bill Shepherd, Yuri Gidzenko and Sergei Krikalev will
swing open a hatch 240 miles above the Earth and begin a race against time.
As the first people to live on the International Space Station, a
work-in-progress whirling around the Earth, they have the responsibility of
getting it operational before the air they have taken with them runs out ­
in about two days.


It is a genuine drama, the first that has actually mattered on the space
station in an already long history (although the first components were only
launched two years ago).


For the trio of astronauts ­ an American and two Russians ­ the deadlines
will be very real. Although virtually everything they need is already on
board the structure, having beendelivered by supply flights since the
living quarters were added in July, it will need Captain Shepherd's
expertise to create a habitable space. The first tasks will be just like
arriving in any home: turn on the lights, the heating and air controls,
take a look at the toilet and bedrooms (actually just bunks), start a meal,
make a phone call ­ or, more precisely, get in touch with Mission Control
(a responsibility shared between the Baikonur Cosmodrome in central Asia,
and the Johnson Space Centre in Houston).


If it goes wrong, though, and the station refuses to start up, they will
have to scramble for the lifeboats and return to Earth ­ which will put yet
another delay into a project that has suffered repeated setbacks since it
was first suggested by Ronald Reagan in 1984.


Assuming the astronauts are successful in starting the station, their
four-month mission will herald a new era in space travel: there will be
someone continuously on board the space station for at least 20 more years.
"If all goes well on this and future missions," said the US space agency
Nasa, even more optimistically, "then October 30, 2000, will go down as the
last day on which there were no human beings in space."


The Mir space station, launched in 1986, was occupied for most of its life
­ though it was left empty from August 1999 until April this year, when a
relief crew went up to investigate what needed to be repaired. Mir's
longevity grew out of Russia's inability to conceive of giving up its place
in space, especially once the Americans brought down their own Skylab space
station when it reached the end of its life.


When Capt Shepherd swings open the hatch 90 minutes after arrival tomorrow,
it will begin a new era in which humans will assert their occupation of
space. Capt Shepherd, known for his expertise in getting systems working,
had been training for the flight for five years. He blew kisses to his wife
before he left and kept flashing a thumbs-up to his colleagues, and shouted
"Let's go do it!" before he climbed into the Soyuz, only the second
American to launch in a Russian rocket.


There was no Nasa-style countdown at the cosmodrome, only occasional and
curt reports blaring from loudspeakers. Several seconds before lift-off,
the command "Zazhiganiye" (ignition) was given and the 20 engines burst
into flames. Clouds of dark smoke rolled across the desert. The huge rocket
whizzed into the air ­ departing from the same place that had seen other
milestones in the human exploration of space, including the launch of
Sputnik in 1957 and Yuri Gagarin, the first person in space, in 1961.


The Nasa administrator, Dan Goldin, waited until Capt Shepherd and his crew
were safely in orbit before hugging top Russian officials and giving a
high-five to Joe Rothenberg, his deputy. The deputy director general of the
Russian Space Agency, Valery Alaverdov, pressed a goblet into Goldin's
hands and poured scotch from a bottle. "Success," Mr Alaverdov toasted.
"Here's to a great space programme," Mr Goldin replied.


A great one, or a late one? The International Space Station (ISS) has been
delayed and delayed. When the first parts of the ISS blasted into space,
they were already two years late. Russia has delayed providing its parts
because of budget cuts and through the stubborn streak among some of its
planners, who even now want to keep Mir in operation.


Every time you look, the ISS schedule has slipped again, and its budget has
ballooned. In November 1998, the expected completion date was 2003, and the
budget about $50bn (£34bn). Now it is 2006, and nobody is talking about the
costs.


Once built, the ISS will be the size of a three-bedroom house, with solar
cells covering the area of two football fields. Indeed, one of the first
supply missions will bring up more solar cells to provide power for the
growing needs of the astronauts.


Mr Goldin has seen Nasa's existence threatened by cutbacks, but fought back
through instituting a credo of "better, faster, cheaper". Even as the
rocket with Capt Shepherd and his Russian colleagues sped upwards, he was
defending the ISS: "There are so many people who felt maybe we couldn't do
it. But it's happening," he said. "We're going to be in space for ever with
people who are circling this globe and then we're going on to Mars, back to
the Moon and with bases on asteroids."


One of the first questions people ask about the ISS is what are they going
to do there?Michael Foale, the British-born astronaut who was on board Mir
when it was holed by a cargo ship, and is now in charge of the space
station crews for Nasa, said: "This flight is the keystone for all future
explorations from this planet."


Initially, however, it will be a laboratory for microgravity experiments
which would be hard (though not impossible) to carry out on Earth. Critics
say it would be just as cost-effective to do the latter and it would not
entail living in an environment where a stray piece of space junk could
destroy everything.


But that is just the worst that could happen. In all likelihood, the ISS
will continue whizzing overhead, visible at night as a bright, moving
light, which children will be able to recognise as our colony in space.


******


#14
Wall Street Journal
November 1, 2000
[for personal use only]
Anti-American Song 'Kill the Yankees' Develops a Strong Following in Russia
By ANDREW HIGGINS (andrew.higgins@wsj.com)
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


MOSCOW -- After a concert in the basement of a museum dedicated to a dead
Russian poet, a group of earnest young music fans parse the lyrics of their
favorite song, which rails against U.S. power and Russian poverty.


"It reflects our true reality, the burning issues of the day," says
Konstantin Kudryachev, the event's organizer and an aficionado of Russia's
underground music scene. "This is music for the intellect."


But this brain food is served very raw.


It's called "Kill the Yankees" and exercises the mind with verses like this:
"Burn the shop with the Americans! Advertise the hard-currency store with a
brick. Blow up with a grenade their pretty Chevrolet. Scrawl the word p on
their sales logo! Kill the Yankees! Kill the Yankees and all who love the
Yankees!"


The song hasn't made pop-music charts -- some radio stations have banned it
-- but it has struck a chord among an eclectic bunch of devotees: bookish but
bitter students, rebels in leather, and shaggy-haired dropouts. United by
their youth, they are a new market for anti-Americanism.
Such sentiments are hardly mainstream: Opinion polls show scant ill will
toward Americans among most Russians. But the hostility is breaking out of a
ghetto of old-timers wistful for Soviet power and for the stirring strains of
the Red Army chorus.


"I think it's perfectly clear what the song means," says Alexander Shalimov,
a student at the Moscow State Academy of Information Technology, who attended
the recent concert at the Mayakovsky Museum, just across the road from the
Lubyanka, headquarters of Russia's secret police.


He takes the words literally. Others, including the songwriter, offer more
figurative interpretations. "I'm not sure it's necessary to go out and
physically kill Americans," says Dmitri Nechayev, an undergraduate at the
Moscow State Institute of Economics. "First of all, one has to kill the
Yankee inside oneself."
The debate has left the man who wrote the song, a soft-spoken veteran of
Russia's musical underground, feeling a little uneasy. "No one should get
killed at my concerts," says the singer-songwriter and self-styled
philosopher Alexander Nepomnyashchy. "I've got lots of other songs, but they
always want 'Kill the Yankees.' "


When he declined to perform his anti-American anthem at a recent concert, he
was jeered by foot-stomping fans. They calmed down after he agreed to play a
different, marginally less incendiary ditty from his repertoire. "Buy Tampax
tampons, chew Spearmint gum, eat Snickers bars, drink Hershey's," he wailed.
"No matter what, a bullet will be found for you. No matter what, a bullet
will be found for you." The audience loved it and joined him in a lusty
chorus.


For some young Russians, killing Americans is boffo at the box office.
"Brat-2," a movie hit this year, features a baby-faced Russian hit man called
Danila who goes from New York to Chicago blowing people's brains out. The
film has spawned a Web site -- and a counter Web site was launched by
appalled critics. Internet chat rooms froth with polemics on the pros and
cons of xenophobic homicide.


"It's so cool the way Danila ices blacks, Ukrainians and dumb Americans. We
need more movies like this," writes a Brat-2 enthusiast from Ulyanovsk,
Lenin's home town. That draws an angry online response from Moscow: "You
clowns are overwhelmed with pride for scum who kill Americans. You are all
imbeciles. If it weren't for Americans, we'd have been under Hitler's rule."
Another Muscovite jumps in to root for revenge: "I like this film because it
shows Americans as they really are -- freaks ... Missiles must be sent to the
U.S. free of charge!"


Boris Barabanov, a director of Nashe Radio, a popular Moscow music station,
calls it the "pendulum effect." As recently as the early 1990s, he says,
American popular culture and icons of success reigned supreme. "Today, young
people see ordinary Americans as dolts chewing gum and hamburgers. This
stereotype has replaced the old stereotype of the successful young
businessman."


The shift has been a big boost to Mr. Nepomnyashchy's career, and it has also
helped his rage-filled rivals -- groups with names like Mental Depression,
AK-47 and Spleen. Mr. Kudryachev, the underground music aficionado, says Mr.
Nepomnyashchy has a firm lock on the market: "He's found his niche in this
type of art."


Impetus for Inspiration


The artistic seeds that blossomed into "Kill the Yankees" were first planted
during the 1991 Gulf War with Iraq. Mr. Nepomnyashchy has been tinkering with
the lyrics ever since. The song crystallized into its current feverish form
during last year's U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization bombing
campaign against Yugoslavia.


A series of demonstrations were held outside the U.S. embassy after air
strikes began in March. Protesters hurled paint, threw rocks and screamed Mr.
Nepomnyashchy's lyrics and other anti-American abuse through bullhorns.
Police shut down the protests after a man in fatigues drove up and tried to
blast the embassy with a rocket-propelled grenade. When the weapon jammed, he
opened fire with a Kalashnikov rifle. (Nobody was hurt, but the embassy
facade was peppered with bullets.) Mr. Nepomnyashchy says that he attended
some of the embassy rallies but missed the gunfire.


The songwriter says he has nothing against Americans personally and cites
Jimi Hendrix, Jim Morrison and Kurt Cobain as heroes. But he has trouble
naming a living American he likes. The lyricist himself is a partisan of the
kill-the-inner-Yankee school of musical interpretation. "It's necessary ...
to kill the values of liberal, postindustrial society," he says.


But subtlety is lost on wilder concertgoers with a taste for skull-motif
jewelry. During intermission in a club near Moscow State University, Mr.
Nepomnyashchy tries to explain what he refers to delicately as his
"problematic relations with America." Nearby, an angry youth howls: "I loathe
all you Americans." Another babbles obscenities and shakes his fist between
gulps of beer. Mr. Nepomnyashchy tells them to shut up.


Truly Uncommercial


The musician hasn't made much money from his underground celebrity.
Mainstream music shops don't stock his crudely recorded tapes, and his mostly
cash-strapped fans tend to make their own bootleg copies. On tour, he sleeps
with friends, often on the floor. His favorite hangout in Moscow is the Metro.


Contemptuous of what he calls "supermarket mass culture," he says he wants to
stay true to an unsullied tradition of artistic protest dating back to the
Soviet Union, when dissidents wrote samizdat books and alternative musicians
recorded homemade tapes known as magnitizdat. All that has changed, he says,
is the target.


In the Soviet Union the enemy was the suffocating conformity of communism.
Today, says Mr. Nepomnyashchy, it's the shallow orthodoxy of American-style
capitalism. "You call it the 'American dream.' I call it the values of a big
supermarket. You enter it and select whatever you want: the Gospel, the
Bhagavad-Gita, Russian dumplings or the collected works of Faulkner."


He warms to his theme. "The more we consume, the more we depend on what we
consume. I think asceticism is the main perquisite for human freedom," he
says, and lights up a Marlboro Light.


*****

CDI Russia Weekly:  http://www.cdi.org/russia

Johnson's Russia List Archive (under construction):  http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson