December 2, 1999    
This Date's Issues: 3656 • 3657  • 3658

Johnson's Russia List
#3658
2 December 1999
davidjohnson@erols.com


[Note from David Johnson:
1. Carnegie Endowment Duma Election Resources.
2. Bloomberg: Russia Duma Sets Presidential Elections Date for 
June 4, 2000.
3. Interfax: PUTIN, FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA REACH NO 'GLOBAL AGREEMENTS'
4. Interfax: UNITY LEAVES FATHERLAND BEHIND IN RUSSIAN ELECTION RACE.
5. Interfax: YELTSIN'S STAFF WANTS FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA OUT OF DUMA
RACE -YASTRZHEMBSKY.
6. Kennedy School of Government panel discussion: CHECHNYA: WHAT NEXT?
By Peter Rutland.
7. Moscow Times EDITORIAL: Belarus Ties: No Bargain For Russia.
8. Reuters: Kremlin's early Christmas gift-Nutcracker on Net.
9. Rossiyskaya gazeta: Irina KRASNOPOLSKAYA, Hunter after AIDS.
10. Itogi: Galina Kovalskaya, YOUNG PEOPLE BOYCOTT ELECTIONS.
11. Boston Globe: David Filipov, For many Chechens, no safe way out.
12. New York Times: James Risen, Yeltsin's Pneumonia Barely Raises 
an Eyebrow in Washington.
13. Interfax: CHUBAIS AGAINST BARRING FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA FROM 
ELECTIONS.] 


********


#1
Date: Wed, 01 Dec 1999
From: Elizabeth Reisch <lreisch@ceip.org>
Organization: Carnegie Endowment
Subject: Duma Election Resources


Dear David,


Duma election watchers on JRL might be interested in several new
resources that the Carnegie Endowment has put together in advance of the
December 19 elections.


1. Primer on Russia's 1999 Duma Elections, edited by Michael McFaul,
Nikolai Petrov, and Andrei Ryabov, with Elizabeth Reisch. 153 pages, in
English.
2. A series of pre-election bulletins, the first of which ("Comparing
Party Platforms") will be available on December 2.


To request free copies of these new publications, please visit our web
site, "Russian Duma Elections 1999: News, Views, and Resources," which
will be updated frequently in these weeks before the election.
http://www.ceip.org/programs/ruseuras/Elections/elections.htm
The site also contains summaries of election-related events held at the
Endowment's offices in Washington and Moscow, polling information, and
links to other useful Russian election resources.


Regards,
Elizabeth Reisch
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Russian and Eurasian Program


*******


#2
Russia Duma Sets Presidential Elections Date for June 4, 2000


Moscow, Dec. 1 (Bloomberg)
-- Russian legislators approved a law on presidential elections in a third 
and final vote and set the elections date for June 4, 2000. 


Russia's lower house of parliament, the Duma, voted to approve a law on 
presidential elections that sets out election procedures and set June 4, 2000 
as the date of the first round. The Duma also set a run-off election for June 
25 in the event no candidate wins a majority in the first round. That extends 
the gap between the rounds to three weeks from two weeks in the 1996 
elections. 


Russian presidential contenders who have said they intend to run in 2000 
include Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Yabloko Party Leader Grigory 
Yavlinsky. Other potential candidates include Communist Party Leader Gennady 
Zyuganov, Former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor Yuri 
Luzhkov, though they have yet to make final decisions or receive approval 
from their parties, as the communist candidate has. 


Primakov said he would decide on whether to run after December parliamentary 
elections, based on how many his alliance Fatherland- All Russia wins, as 
well as on other considerations. 


Luzhkov has said he would consider running if he thought there were no 
suitable candidates for the presidential post, thought he later said he 
wouldn't run. Luzhkov is seeking reelection as mayor in Moscow's elections in 
December. 


If President Boris Yeltsin remains in his post until June and elections are 
held on time -- the inauguration of the new president will take place on Aug. 
9 -- a first democratic transition of executive power in Russia, Agence 
France-Presse reported. 


Yeltsin is being treated for suspected pneumonia at Moscow's Central Clinical 
Hospital where he was taken on Monday. Kremlin officials said it's not clear 
how long he will remain in the hospital. 


Yeltsin named Putin as his choice for the next Russian president when he 
appointed him Prime Minister in August. 


According to the Russian Constitution, if Yeltsin resigned early or became 
incapable of fulfilling his duties, the prime minister would take over for 
three months until presidential elections are held. 


******


#3
PUTIN, FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA REACH NO 'GLOBAL AGREEMENTS'


MOSCOW. Dec 1 (Interfax) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin,
former prime minister and current leader of the Fatherland-All Russia
election alliance Yevgeny Primakov and Moscow Mayor and Fatherland
movement leader Yuri Luzhkov did not reach any important agreements at
their Wednesday meeting.
"No global agreements that would crucially change the situation
were reached," Putin's press secretary Mikhail Kozhukhov told
journalists. The Fatherland-All Russia leaders had initiated the
meeting.
Putin, Primakov and Luzhkov focused "on the situation and
cooperation parameters both before to the election and afterward,"
Kozhukhov said.
Such contacts "fully correspond with Putin's methods. He is
prepared to cooperate with all forces also prepared to do so," he said.
Other concrete economic issues were also addressed, including
construction work on the Moscow city subway system.
Putin assured the other two men that the issue of Moscow Interior
Department head Nikolai Kulikov's dismissal "will be resolved within the
framework of the law."
Regarding Russia's electricity monopoly Unified Energy Systems CEO
Anatoly Chubais' remark to the effect that professionals work in Putin's
electoral headquarters, Kozhukhov said that Chubais probably meant the
people who oversee contacts with the media."
"The elections have not been announced yet. [Putin's] election
headquarters have not yet been formed either within or outside the
government," he said.


*****


#4
UNITY LEAVES FATHERLAND BEHIND IN RUSSIAN ELECTION RACE


MOSCOW. Dec 1 (Interfax) - The last nation-wide poll in Russia has
shown that a new situation is shaping up on the election playing field.
The Inter-Regional Association Unity, known by its Russian abbreviation
Medved or Bear, has confidently moved to second place after the Russian
Communist Party KPRF, pushing the Fatherland - All-Russia bloc [OVR]
back to the third spot.
The Public Opinion Foundation made this known to Interfax
Wednesday, following a representative poll [November 27-28] of 2,000
respondents in 56 urban and rural communities in 29 territories of all
of Russia's regions. The margin of error in the poll was 2.2%.
According to the results, over the last week of November, Unity's
electorate nearly doubled from 8% to 14%.
The ratings of the other leading parties and blocs actually
remained unchanged: KPRF - 21% [the same 21% a week ago], OVR - 10%
[previously 11%], Yabloko - 8% [also 8%], the Right-Wing Forces Union -
4% [prior to the poll, 5%], Zhirinovsky's bloc - 4% [4% before].
None of the rest of Russia's public associations running got more
than 2% of the vote.
Fund experts link such a boost in Bear's ratings with the support
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin voiced for the association last week.
Sociologists believe that in the minds of the public, there has
been a projection of massive support for the premier in his team, with
which Putin will have to work in the State Duma.
In free interviews throughout November, sociologists noticed that
Putin's numerous supporters expected a signal from the Prime Minister to
tell them whom they should vote for at the State Duma elections. The
last poll pointed to the electoral effect of such a signal.


******


#5
YELTSIN'S STAFF WANTS FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA OUT OF DUMA RACE -
YASTRZHEMBSKY


MOSCOW. Dec 1 (Interfax) - Fatherland-All Russia leaders have the
impression that Russian President Boris Yeltsin's staff has decided to
take the bloc out of the parliamentary race, deputy head of the
alliance's election headquarters Sergei Yastrzhembsky said.
Attempts were made to bribe Fatherland-All Russia candidates
running for the State Duma, Yastrzhembsky said at a briefing on
Wednesday. "Very lucrative proposals" were made to them so that they
would withdraw from the race. Several candidates were offered large
amounts of money, apartments in Moscow and St. Petersburg and career
promotions. Candidate Konstantin Zatulin rejected a $700,000 bribe, he
said.
Yastrzhembsky denied that the Fatherland-All Russia Political
Council held a closed meeting in Moscow and blamed Moscow Mayor Yuri
Luzhkov for the bloc's crisis. The alliance will release an official
statement in relation to "this forgery," he said.
The mass media campaign against Fatherland-All Russia and its
leaders "has not yielded results," he said. Between 16% and 18% of
voters support the alliance, he said.


******


#6
Date: Wed, 01 Dec 1999 
From: Peter Rutland <prutland@mail.wesleyan.edu> 
Subject: Chechnya


Dear David
here is a report of a panel discussion at the Kennedy School of Government
that may be interesting for your readers.
Peter


CHECHNYA: WHAT NEXT?
By Peter Rutland


Peace is not in sight for the hard-pressed inhabitants of the troubled
Russian province of Chechnya. That was the conclusion of a panel discussion
at the Kennedy School of Government on 17 November, held under the auspices
of the Caspian Studies Program.


Russia's aims in this second Chechen war, and the likelihood of their
reaching them, were discussed by three distinguished panelists: Igor Rotar,
a journalist who writes for Nezavisimaya Gazeta; General John Reppert,
executive director of the Kennedy School's Belfer Cente for Science and
International Affairs, and the former head of the On Site Inspection Agency
who completed three tours of duty at the US Embassy in Moscow; and Dr.
Michal Libal, currently German ambassador to Kazakhstan and formerly head
of the OSCE mission to Georgia.


Igor Rotar stressed the political importance of the Russian military action
in Chechnya to the future stability of the entire North Caucasus. He
recalled that the current round of military action began with the Chechen
attack on neighboring Dagestan in early August. After those attackers were
repulsed, and in the wake of a wave of terrorist bombings in Moscow and
Volgodonsk of unknown origin, Russia decided to start military operations
against the rebel province. 


Rotar underlined that the political situation across the whole North
Caucasus is highly unstable. The region is inhabited by a multitude of
ethnic groups with many grievances from times past, put together in
republics with borders that cut across ethnic communities. In addition the
region suffers from economic stagnation and an explosion of crime,
including a veritable kidnapping industry. Tensions have been rising in
Dagestan, North Ossetiya, Ingushetiya and Karachaevo-Cherkessiya. The
injection of a new element - militant Islamic groups operating out of
Chechnya - threatened to destabilize the entire region, and triggered the
Russian action. 


Rotar was asked whether he was convinced that radical Islam is a factor in
the region, or if this is merely an excuse used by Russian hardliners
anxious to reverse their humiliating defeat in the first Chechen war
(1994-96). Rotar said that he had personally been told by Chechen field
commander Shamil Basaev during meetings in 1995-96 that he had visited
Afghanistan and was motivated by a desire to drive out the "unbelievers"
from his native land. However, Rotar did say that he thought it unlikely
that Basaev had been behind the Moscow bombings, although he did not rule
out the possibility that they could have been the work of another Chechen
commander. Rotar suggested that financial support from the Islamic world
may be an important factor behind the rise of the radical Chechen commanders.


Ambassador Libal, who was speaking in a personal capacity, echoed Rotar's
analysis of the potentially destabilizing effects of the state of
near-anarchy which has prevailed in Chechnya in recent years. Chechnya's
government had "ruined the chance they had gotten after the 1996 accords"


which ended the first war by allowing warlords to flourish. The province
turned into "a sort of black hole dominated by armed bands and a kidnapping
industry." It represented "a danger to its neighbors," since some Chechen
leaders were trying to exercise a sort of "mini-imperialism" over the north
Caucasus. Libal concluded that "no power can replace the Russian Federation
to restore stability in the North Caucasus." The breakdown of Russian power
in the region would have "catastrophic consequences," leading to "chaos and
a war of all against all." 


Libal argued that Russia should stop accusing the West of interference and
should instead "live up to its responsibilities" to impose order, which may
involve negotiating with moderate Chechen leaders. The international
community has legitimate concerns over the fate of civilians in the region
- concerns which are not merely an "internal affair" of Russia, given
Russia's obligations as a member of the OSCE. The West could also play a
constructive role in helping to devise a lasting peace for the region,
including helping to rebuild its economic and social infrastructure. 


John Reppert noted that the Russian military has rethought its tactics in
light of its failure in the first Chechen war, and seems determined to
press for victory the second time around. In contrast to the past they have
implemented what seems to be a measured escalation of force. The first
stage involved heavy air strikes while some 50,000 troops were massed to
seal off the borders of the rebel province. With that accomplished, on 30
September they moved forward to seize the plains north of the Terek river.
On 21 October Russian forces moved into central Chechnya, preceded by heavy
bombardment from artillery, missiles and aircraft. Their goal was to
surround and seal off the major cities and persuade the civilian leaders to
surrender. This having been accomplished in Chechnya's second city,
Gudermes, they are now turning their attention to Grozny. 


At the start of the fighting the population of Chechnya was around 400,000.
Of that number, some 200,000 have fled the province, mainly into
Ingushetiya. Reppert estimated that the Russians aim to kill or capture
some 10,000 of the roughly 50,000 Chechen men of military age.


Reppert thought that this strategy had a reasonable chance of success, at
least in the short term. By avoiding street fighting, the Russian forces
may escape the humiliating defeats inflicted on them in 1994-96 by the
mobile and highly-motivated Chechen fighters. By sealing off Grozny and
driving the guerillas into the mountains, the Russian army hopes to starve
them into submission during the winter. 


The Russians now face a difficult decision: whether to try to take Grozny,
or instead try to keep up a blockade of the city through the winter.
Terrorist attacks could push the Russians to try for a quick solution. As
time goes on, the political balance in Russia could shift against the war
if there are no victories to report and guerrilla raids cause Russian
casualties to mount.


An important difference from the first Chechen war is that the government
has mounted a skillful media campaign, which seems to have convinced the


Russian public that the military operations should be supported. Just how
long that consensus can be sustained if the war, like its predecessor,
turns into a messy and protracted affair, remains an open question. 


Peter Rutland
Government Department
Wesleyan University
Middletown CT 06459
tel 860 685 2483
fax 860 685 2781


*******


#7
Moscow Times
December 2, 1999 
EDITORIAL: Belarus Ties: No Bargain For Russia 


According to everyone concerned, plans to sign a Russia-Belarus treaty are 
moving full steam ahead, President Boris Yeltsin's health apparently being 
the only hurdle. Yeltsin is scheduled to discuss the matter with his team as 
early as Friday, and Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko has put in 
his bid for a pre-election signing, fearing the loss of "locomotive" power 
the outgoing State Duma has put behind the union. Last week's scuttling of 
the Nov. 26 signing date could be mended as soon as Dec. 7 if Lukashenko has 
his wish. 


But considering the two individual countries, one gets the sensation of 
looking at a mismatched couple on the verge of eloping: Shouldn't they take 
just a little more time to think about it? 


Public opinion is reputedly as gung-ho on the unification issue as it seems 
to be on other hot topics like Chechnya and the political appeal of Prime 
Minister Vladimir Putin. But it's unclear what, besides a nostalgic dance 
with Soviet-style teambuilding, such a wedding would hold in store for the 
citizens of either Belarus or Russia. What does each side bring to the match? 


It's not an irresistible package from either side of the aisle. Russia's 
economic problems grow daily deeper, and its policy concerns are intensely 
focused on a difficult military campaign that could come to employ 
Belarussian soldiers. Belarus also risks simply being dwarfed by its much 
larger partner - a partner who should demonstrate a commitment to taking care 
of itself before taking on a weaker, smaller sidekick. 


Russia, too, has reason to hesitate. Lukashenko may run a tight ship in 
Belarus, but his methods are so brutish that Russia should think twice before 
embracing them on a collective resume. Since his election in 1994, Lukashenko 
has modified the Belarussian Constitution in order to extend his own term. He 
dissolved his country's Supreme Soviet, cracked down on media diversity and 
used violence to battle opposition rallies. What he has taken away in civil 
liberties he has failed to return in social security - Belarus remains bogged 
down in a poverty more crippling than Russia's. 


Last but not least there is the recent spate of high-profile "disappearances" 
- an alarm that shouldn't be dismissed. Three former members of Lukashenko's 
inner circle have vanished without a trace this year; a fourth, the country's 
former prime minister, was thrown in jail on unsubstantiated charges and just 
as arbitrarily released on Tuesday. The Kremlin isn't exactly a charm school 
itself, but does it really want to join forces with a Stalinesque eliminator 
like Lukashenko? 


*******


#8
Kremlin's early Christmas gift-Nutcracker on Net

MOSCOW, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The Kremlin dipped into the sack to produce an 
early Christmas present on Wednesday, saying it would broadcast Pyotr 
Tchaikovsky's Nutcracker ballet live on the Internet this month for the first 
time from Russia. 


The Kremlin is an ancient fortress that contains many buildings including 
churches, President Boris Yeltsin's offices and a vast Soviet-era concert 
hall once used for Communist Party gatherings and now known as the State 
Kremlin Palace. 


``It is a Christmas gift to the entire world,'' the State Kremlin Palace said 
in its announcement. ``The best New Year extravaganza of the 20th century!'' 


The live performance of the traditional ballet about a magical guest at a 
Christmas gathering will be broadcast on the Internet at www.kremlin-gkd.ru 
on December 13 at 1600 GMT. 


The Kremlin said it would be the first live ballet broadcast from Russia on 
the Internet. Many Russians who have Internet access may find it difficult to 
view the show because of poor-quality telephone lines. 


Highlights will be available free for a month, covering Western and Orthodox 
Christmas -- December 25 and January 7 -- and New Year, a particularly 
important holiday for Russians. 


The State Kremlin Palace is owned by the presidential administration and has 
its own established ballet company. 


******


#9
Rossiyskaya gazeta
1 December 1999
Hunter after AIDS
By Irina KRASNOPOLSKAYA


The first of December is universal date of fight against AIDS. In Russia 
AIDS appeared in 1985: then the first sick man - citizen if South African 
Republic was discovered. It was unknown at that time bachelor of medical 
science Vadim Pokrovsky who discovered him. Almost fifteen years lasted and 
now Vadim Valentinovich Pokrovsky is a corresponding member of Russian 
Academy of Medical Science. He speaks about AIDS problem. 


Prostitutes from Tverskaya HIV-infected


Figures released by UN show more than 50 million people are 
HIV-infected. 16 million have already died. In USSR and then in Russia there 
were no AIDS and HIV-infected. Only in February 1987 the first Russian 
citizen AIDS-infected was discovered. Since then the Russian science 
methodical center on prophylactic measure and fight against AIDS headed by 
Vadim Pokrovsky has registered 23509 HIV-infected and for eleven months of 
present year - 12 425 new HIV- infected (three times as high as the same 
period of last year and more than all previous years beginning since the 
first case). In Russia epidemic of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS, has begun.
Period of infection to development of death disease - AIDS lasts from 
three to fifteen years. And most HIV-infected feel normal and are not 
examined on HIV-infection. It means that real figures of infected could be 
ten or twenty times as high as this. Really in Russia there are more than 100 
thousand infected.
If epidemic spreads so quickly the number of infected will double year 
by year on the words of Vadim Valentinovich. In three years there will be one 
million of HIV-infected in Russia and in five years - ten million. As most 
infected are youth so childbirth declines. We see that epidemic of AIDS 
threatens demographic catastrophe.
Still the most part of HIV-infected are drug addicts. They are 90 per 
cent. In the present year 500 men were infected having a sex. They were 
normal men and women. Women-drug addicts work as prostitutes earning money on 
drugs. Recently doctors examined prostitutes on Tverskaya street in Moscow 
and discovered that 14 per cent were HIV-infected.
People not having harm habits and predilection can be HIV-infected. Many 
women were infected from her only sexual partner - husband which once had a 
sex with another woman. 


"I'm a HIV-infected. Embrace me!"


At the Center headed by Pokrovsky there is moderate picture on a wall - 
a smiling boy saying: "I'm a HIV-infected. Embrace me!" It is a necessary 
picture. From one hand we do not want to hear about AIDS. From the other hand 
we run away from HIV-infected turning them in this way into outcast persons.
It is obvious HIV-infected is not dangerous for the rest of people in 
case if no sex, blood pouring to another person. All talks that it is enough 
to shake hands with HIV-infected or to drink with him from the same glass to 
be infected are full rubbish. 


President's son


When Vadim discovered the first sick man AIDS-infected his father 
Valentin Ivanovich Pokrovsky had not become the president of Academy of 
medical science yet. In one reference book the "Who is who" we can read Vadim 
"was born in family of high medical officer" that never reflected reality.
Valentin Ivanovich was a specialist at clinical researches in areas of 
infectious disease. Mother of Vadim also is a doctor - child nerve 
specialist. Choice of profession was predictable. It is clear that son 
decided to become a doctor specialist at infectious disease as his father.
Father of Vadim was a success in science and became a famous expert at 
infectious disease in the world. First of all his son was engaged in 
researching malaria disease and salmoneleoz. Salmoneleoz is a very dangerous 
food infection that often drive to patient's death. Vadim had been looking 
for a vaccine against this awful disease. It took him five years. Day by day 
Vadim went to the laboratory and examined mice and rats." The number of rats 
we destroyed is not comparative with cats do." - says Vadim. And when it 
seemed to be success scientists failed : this cure does not suit everyone. 
But failure is also result. In this case it became clear that this approach 
to creation vaccine against salmoneleoz failed. There was the other result of 
five years work - bachelor's dissertation. In it Vadim Pokrovsky proved on 
base of experimental data : vaccines can be created in chemical way. 


One in three faces:


After graduating from his institute Vadim entered clinical house-surgery 
and went to work at the Central science research institute of epidemiology. 
Since then he has been working there. All research and clinical work of Vadim 
Valentinovich is connected with immunology infectious diseases and 
epidemiology. And when AIDS appeared it was namely Vadim who is one in three 
faces to be engaged in soling this problem -itch of XX century.
By 1985 when in the USA there had been hundreds of AIDS-infected the 
question: is there AIDS in USSR? arose. Four Moscow science institutes began 
working at it. Almost during a year nobody discovered something. Now we know 
that AIDS virus only began to appear in Soviet Union. But then…
Once Vadim was asked to examine a sick man which had been taken to the 
second Infectious hospital: 30 years old guerrilla from the Southern African 
Republic had a unusual case of pneumonia. He was treated in common hospital 
room. His blood was examined and it was the first time Vadim saw blood of 
HIV-infected.
But by that time when results of analyses were received the sick had 
recovered, gone away from hospital and begun studying at high school of trade 
union movement. The hospital nurse which wrote out the sick had committed 
mistake: in papers she wrote high party school instead school of trade union 
movement. It took for a long time to find a dangerous patient. When he was 
found it was a large panic at school. Because there were other two students 
from Burundi studying at school which also were infected. All students were 
examined. But fortunately HIV can not be spread by living way.
The first "native" AIDS-infected man was discovered only in February 
1987. But every chance is regularity. All year long Vadim Pokrovsky delivered 
lectures about AIDS to doctors. And one day the young student woman came to 
the professor and said that she had come to the conclusion one of his patents 
was AIDS-infected. At first she was laughed at. But she insisted on examining 
blood of suspected patient. Result - she was right.
That time there were no separate hospital rooms for infected. When Vadim 
Valentinovich discovered epidemic of HIV-infection among children in Elista 
AIDS became a real problem. State was shocked. It resulted authorities began 
form system of fight against AIDS. Now there are centers engaged in solving 
this problem in all regions. 


Nuriev can be alive now


We know that next cure against AIDS "Armenikum" failed. But are 
HIV-infected and more over AIDS-infected doomed to death?
On the words of Pokrovsky we have entire set of cures which are capable 
to stop process. But HIV-infected must use it regularly. These medical 
preparation are very expensive - $7-8 thousand per year course. Though under 
our laws state should pay for treatment of HIV-infected we have no money for 
it now. Since 1987 we have lost 441 patient including 102 children.
I acquainted with Vadim Valentinovich when he had discovered the first 
AIDS-infected and know that since then he had a problem; where can he get 
money for treatment? He dislikes that none program of politicians taking part 
in elections to Duma concerns this problem.
Last year Moscow region came the first on HIV-infected - more than 4000 
cases were registered there. Real figures are five - ten times as high as 
this. But neither of candidates to governors of Moscow region notices it. May 
be they do not know.
Such ignorance can bring about large trouble. In North Europe state 
purposeful fight against AIDS have been taken place for ten years. Result 
they could see only during last five years: reduction of infected. If we lose 
a moment in five years we'll understand that we had lost entire generation.
All doctors of the world tried to save great Nuriev. All was in vain.
- That time we had no new medical preparations. If it happened now I 
think we would manage to save him. One of his Russian colleagues being 
infected for more than ten years continues dancing. And it is not the only 
example.
- Valentin Valentinovich. Have you ever been desperate?
- Yes. In our state nobody cares about AIDS. Our specialists work for 
very small wages. I'm ashamed to admit but even thousand roubles per month is 
dream for most part. Almost a year ago Ministry of Health presented us 
building near Kotelnicheskaya embankment. But we can not find money to repair 
it. Everyone thinks he will get away with AIDS. But last months high 
officials asked me for help their children HIV-infected.
All in all I'm not sorry about my choice. Someone must make this hard 
work otherwise there is no way out.
- Are you interested in something besides AIDS?
- Yes. I verse. I did not publish it nowhere but in the beginning of new 
century I'll certainly try to issue a book. Besides it I'm fond of 
mushrooming.
- Are your relatives afraid that once you'll bring AIDS home?
- My wife Galya also is a doctor and work nearby. My eldest daughter 
Anastasiya is a student of medical institute. The youngest daughter Luba is 
going to enter medical institute after school . Both of them want to fight 
against AIDS. 


P.S. By November 22 of current year the most number of HIV-infected had 
been registered in Moscow region - 4012 cases, Moscow - 3308 , Kaliningrad 
region - 2589, Krasnodarsky region - 2160, Irkutskaya region - 2191 , 
Rostovskaya - 1549, Tverskaya - 1446, Tumenskaya - 1262, Nizegorodskaya - 
668. There are 77 per cent men of 22 881 all adults infected. More than a 
half in age of 20 - 30 years old. 
*******


#10
Itogi
#46, 1999
[translation for personal use only]
YOUNG PEOPLE BOYCOTT ELECTIONS
Neither Party Sure to Rally Support of the Young
By Galina KOVALSKAYA

The article is compiled on the basis of the materials of
focus groups, commissioned by the magazine Itogi to the
sociological firm Valideita held in Moscow and Voronezh.
In each city, one group was comprised of young people who
work, another of college students and the third, of young
people who believed they have achieved success in life.

Every party seems to rally the support of the young.
True, what is important, is the number of votes, whether old
or young, male or female - it can hardly be figured out inside
the ballot-box. But it is the young voters like no other group
raises a party's prestige because promises it future
victories.
The first major campaign for the young unfolded in 1996,
when the presidential election headquarters devised the action
"Vote or Lose." After Yeltsin's victory, an opinion took on
among politicians and their teams that the action was a great
success, although strictly speaking, there are no specific
calculations available. No one can tell, whether young voters
were more active in 1996 than, say, in 1991, and to what
extent their eventual showing-up at the polls can be
attributed to the rock-concerts as part of the action. 
Whatever the case, no election campaign does without song
and dance.
This fall, the competition for the young people's votes
has acquired a larger scale. The right-wingers were the ones
who started. Even in summer, their Right Forces' Union (SPS)
not yet fully shaped, the right leaders toured Russia's big
cities accompanied by pop-stars and rock-groups.
Sociologists poll the audience upon exit from the concert
venue. After a week or two, the impressions of the event get
erased by new ones.
The summer 1996 youth events were at least subject to a
single logic. The "Vote or Lose" ideologists set themselves a
clear goal to "lure" the young to the polls. If they only show
up, they will not vote communist for sure. This time, the
general picture is far more complicated. Neither party can be
sure of having rallied the young.
The communists are not popular with the young. All
surveys (save those conducted by the communists themselves)
suggest that the percentage of those under thirty willing to
vote communist is seven or eight at best (the average figure
for all ages is 20 to 25 percent). Only once a girl appeared
on one of our focus groups who defended the communists, but
even she was not going to vote for the KPRF. "I would have
voted for them had there not been Primakov." The majority is
convinced that "they will hardly do anything good." The degree
and motives of non-acceptance of the communists vary greatly.
Every survey reveals that the young account for the
greatest support of Zhirinovsky's party. The latest opinion
poll by the Public Opinion Foundation confirmed this trend:
eight percent of the young would like to vote for Zhirinovsky
at the presidential elections and nine for LDPR at the
parliamentary ones. On average across the country, only four
percent support Zhirinovsky. According to VTSIOM (National
Public Opinion Center), young people with no education largely
account for Zhirinovsky's high "young" rating. With this
group, he ranks second in the list of preferences, even though
shares the second place with SPS.
The great-power and patriotic moods are characteristic of
the young no less than of the thirty-to-forty group. In any
case, according to the Public Opinion Foundation's polls,
young people hold harsher positions both with regard to NATO
and to Chechnya.
Most young people want stability and predictability just
like their parents. That is why they make their choice in
favor of the Fatherland-All Russia bloc (OVR). This party is
most associated with stability: "One cannot say it is a party
of the future, but it is surely one of the present. They are
for stability and order." According to the foundation's data,
17 percent of the young are going to vote for OVR, which is
more than for any other party. Yabloko ranks second, 11
percent.
Despite the wide-spread opinion, there are no less active
voters among the young than among their parents. In Kolomna,
27 percent of the young and 30 percent of older people said
they will vote for sure; while 27 and 24 percent,
respectively, will "sooner vote than not." The young can be
apolitical, but it means not so much absenteeism, but an
amazing discrepancy between the declared principles and
behavior.
It would certainly be an exaggeration to say that the new
generation is an exact copy of the previous one. On average,
the young are more compliant with regard to private property.
For example, 18 percent of the young and 36 percent of their
parents checked the box "private land ownership needs to be
abolished" (the Kolomna survey), while 23 and 12 percent,
respectively, agreed that "the right to private property
should not be limited." The biggest number in both groups
supported the statement "private land ownership needs to be
preserved with government control of the use of the land": 55
and 47 percent, respectively. A similar picture outlines the
choice of the path of development Russia should take. While 14
percent of the young and 24 of the middle-aged would like the
Soviet rule back, 50 and 51 percent would prefer "the
orientation of reforms changed, government role in the economy
enhanced, and social protection ensured," 12 and 7 percent
advocate "further reforms, with the government role gradually
lowered," and 15 and 12 percent, "faster and more radical
reforms."
In the mid-nineties, when the public disappointment with
the reforms seemed to have reached its peak, the right
parties' supporters were consoled by the hope that the new
generation of voters was already knocking on the door, one
grown-up in this regime and burdened not with Soviet bias and
stereotypes; and it will bring change. It is clear now that no
revolutionary changes can be expected. True, the young are a
little "more right" than their parents. However, the hopes
pinned by SPS on the young electorate are not backed by
surveys. In this category, there are no more supporters of the
Right Cause than on average across ages -- 3-4 percent. The
young want stability, security and government protection just
like older people do. They do not want a return to the past,
but seek to correct the present adding more reliability and
certainty of the future, rather than broader choices and
possibilities.

******


#11
Boston Globe
2 December 1999
[for personal use only]
For many Chechens, no safe way out 
By David Filipov


OMALO, Georgia - When the Russian bombs, shells and rockets had flattened
every house, wrecked most cellars, and made it too dangerous to bury the
dead, members of the Aslayev family realized they would have to flee their
village in southeastern Chechnya.


What they did not realize was that the worst part lay ahead - a treacherous
journey up a steep, narrow gorge leading to the mighty Caucasus Mountains
that form the border with the former Soviet republic of Georgia. Russia,
insisting that only separatist militants are using the road, conducts air
and artillery attacks on it constantly.


The steady barrage has turned the only escape route out of southern
Chechnya into a road of death, according to accounts of refugees who have
risked the journey and survived.


They say tens of thousands of civilians are too frightened to try to flee
and remain trapped in dozens of villages in the foothills, which, like the
Aslayevs' hometown, are under heavy bombardment.


Those who do make it out of Chechnya find that Georgian border guards are
letting in women and children - but turning back all men except the elderly
and sick.


''They told the others to go back to Chechnya and fight the Russians,''
said Kurzhan Aslayeva, a former schoolteacher, who fled Chechnya with her
family two weeks ago. ''Now we don't know where our husbands and brothers
are.''


She spoke yesterday in her family's new home - an unlit, unheated room in
an abandoned office building in Omalo, a village on Georgia's mountainous
border with Chechnya where some 4,000 people have sought refuge from the
fighting.


Most of the more than 230,000 refugees from the fighting in Chechnya have
fled to the Russian region of Ingushetia west of the combat zone, and that
is where most reporters, international observers, and humanitarian aid have
gone, too.


Omalo, in a remote and poverty-stricken part of Georgia that has been
settled mainly by Chechens for generations, has received little attention
since the fighting began in September. Aid agencies have delivered plastic
sheets for windows, sponge mattresses for beds, blankets, and flour, but
that is all. The area, which has had no heat, hot water, or electricity for
years, can hardly handle its new residents.


Here, gaunt children shiver and cough in the dark, small rooms. Some of
them are suffering from shellshock and exposure. They show signs of
malnutrition. Aishat Nashikhayeva, a mother of three who has breast cancer,
said the local hospital can provide neither care nor medicine. Her
neighbor's son, Mogamed, suffered a concussion and has lost the ability to
talk. Another woman, Khedi Almadova, has gone blind. Everyone fears that
sickness and disease will arrive with the coldest winter months.


Meanwhile, the refugee flow to Ingushetia has slowed, leading Moscow and
many outside observers to assume that there are, as Russia's representative
to Chechnya, Nikolai Koshman, said this week, ''no more civilians left in
Chechnya, only fighters.''


In fact, refugees say, many towns in southern Chechnya are brimming with
people who cannot get to Ingushetia. Some of these towns - Chiri-Yurt,
Stariye Atagi, Alkhazurovo, and Goiskoye - have come under heavy
bombardment this week, according to both refugees and the Russian military.


Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, responding to Western criticism, has
expressed regret for the civilian casualties, calling them an unfortunate
side-effect of the campaign to eradicate the separatist rebels Moscow
refers to as ''bandits'' and ''terrorists.''


But Chechen civilians fleeing the fighting describe a different picture:
They say only the occasional rebel fighter is killed in the constant and
systematic aerial and artillery barrage, but it has flattened entire
villages and killed or maimed hundreds, if not thousands, of civilians as
they tried to flee or take cover.


''The Russians are bombing everything that moves,'' said Umar Isabayev, 45,
who said he escaped to Omalo by walking over mountain paths for three days.
''I'd look up and see planes dropping bombs in front of me, planes dropping
bombs behind me, and wondered how it is that I lived.''


On the way, Isabayev said, he saw two small children die in air raids, and
a woman suffer a heart attack when the planes came. As they reached a
Chechen village near the Georgian border, more people died in a nighttime
air raid. Two men traveling with him suffered frostbite. Now, Isabayev, his
family, and the family of his ethnic Russian sister-in-law are among 25
refugees crowded into a house in Omalo; his brother stayed in one of the
foothill villages of southern Chechnya.


''People in these towns realize that at any moment they will be hit by a
strike of terrible force,'' Isabayev said. ''Do you understand the state
they are in?''


Told that the Russians had announced a ''humanitarian corridor'' for
civilians wishing to leave the besieged rebel-held regions south of the
capital city of Grozny, Isabayev said: ''I haven't heard of this corridor,
and I haven't seen it.''


Russian leaders have been forecasting the rapid collapse of the militants
since Moscow sent troops into the territory more than two months ago, but
the rebels have put up increasingly fierce resistance in recent days,
claiming to have retaken several towns in the east.


The Russian military was similarly upbeat when it sent troops into Chechnya
in 1994, but was forced to withdraw from the region two years later.


Now the army is back. Most Russians support the official view that the
government had to act to protect its citizens from attacks by
''terrorists'' who invaded the southern Russian region of Dagestan from
Chechnya in August, and from a wave of deadly apartment bombs that Moscow
blames on Chechens.


With national elections scheduled Dec. 19, few Russian politicians dare to
speak out about the military's use of massive force against civilians;
those who do have been accused of ''betraying Russia's national interests.''


The war has brought unease to Georgia, a small, impoverished nation that
borders on Chechnya and still has Russian military bases on its territory.
Fearing Russia's wrath, Georgian leader Eduard Shevardnadze has offered
support for Moscow's ''antiterrorist'' operation, and Georgian border
guards have stepped up their vigilance by refusing passage to men fleeing
Chechnya.


''No one can believe that Georgia, a country which has experienced so much
trouble in the past, is able to give shelter to terrorists,'' Shevardnadze
told a radio interviewer this week.


Some Chechen fighters do apparently get through the mountain route. Some of
the young men who live in the region around Omalo express a desire to
travel to Chechnya and fight.


But Moscow's charges that Georgia is aiding and abetting ''terrorists''
brought a weak, sardonic grin to Khasan Bibbulatov, a refugee in Omalo.
Bibbulatov, 50, has already paid dearly once for such accusations. He said
he spent much of 1995 and 1996 in a Russian concentration camp in Chechnya,
where he said he was repeatedly tortured by troops trying to get him to
confess to being a fighter.


One favorite tactic, he said, was to use a file to grind away his teeth.
Another was to take him outside naked in the winter cold, sit him on a
train track so that his body stuck to the metal, and beat him senseless.
The experience left him a cripple with no teeth and a chronic cough. His
mistake, he said, was being in Grozny when the Russians got there.


Last month, Bibbulatov fled Grozny for the road of death. He spent two days
avoiding bombs. Then he spent his last $100 bribing Georgian border guards
to let him in. Then he limped 40 miles until a car picked him up and
brought him to Omalo.


''That just goes to show,'' he said, ''that there are good people
everywhere.''


*******


#12
New York Times
December 1, 1999
[for personal use only]
Yeltsin's Pneumonia Barely Raises an Eyebrow in Washington
By JAMES RISEN


WASHINGTON -- Not long ago, whenever Boris Yeltsin caught a cold, the more 
nervous Kremlin watchers in the Clinton administration reacted with alarm. 
But this week, Yeltsin caught pneumonia, and Washington stifled a yawn. 


That casual response offers a revealing glimpse of how Washington apparently 
believes that Yeltsin's health is no longer critical to the relationship with 
Moscow. 


It is not just that officials have grown skeptical or callous about the 
Russian president's troubled health. It is also that they now apparently 
believe that Russia's fledgling democracy is becoming stable enough to 
outlast him. 


The latest announcement that Yeltsin has been hospitalized with pneumonia for 
the fourth time in less than two years was made as the Russian people and 
U.S. officials have come to accept his erratic behavior, periodic 
disappearances and chronic health problems as par for course. 


The CIA has been reporting to the administration this year that the periods 
when Yeltsin disappears have been increasing and that his ability to function 
in his job appears to be eroding. 


Administration officials acknowledge that Washington does not have good 
information about some closely guarded aspects of Yeltsin's health. "There is 
not much openness on everything that ails him," one official said. "I don't 
think we have a good sense of everything that may be bothering him." 


But officials stress that they do not need the CIA to tell them that Yeltsin 
is disengaged, for health as well as other reasons. That report is all over 
the Russian press. "His disengagement is not news," one official said. 'It's 
not a secret that he is less involved than he used to be." 


Officials said they were confident that Yeltsin's problems did not threaten 
his life. 


President Clinton told reporters Tuesday that he had been informed that 
Yeltsin had a simple case of pneumonia. "I checked on it yesterday, and they 
believe that he will be all right," Clinton said. 


Yeltsin's spokesman said he was spoke by telephone from his hospital with 
Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, , who is on a visit. 


Yeltsin, 68, had a heart bypass in 1996, and his health, reportedly worsened 
by drinking, has been a recurring problem. He had a bout of pneumonia last 
November and a bleeding stomach ulcer this year. 


After each health crisis, however, Yeltsin has re-emerged. In fact, he can 
still display a burst of energy for important meetings with foreign leaders, 
as he did in Istanbul at the 54-nation conference on European security in 
mid-November. Administration officials said Clinton had commented on the fact 
that Yeltsin had a firm handshake and a steady gaze and talked in an animated 
rapid-fire style. 


But U.S. officials recognize that Yeltsin appears to have only sporadic 
involvement in the day-to-day running of the Russian government. 


"His involvement now seems to be mostly in significant international events," 
noted one administration official. "There is a trend in which he has reduced 
his involvement in national affairs." 


But with Yeltsin's term winding down and next year's election to name his 
successor looming, administration officials believe that even Yeltsin's 
declining condition would not derail the Russian political process. Direct 
challenges to his presidency no longer seem likely. 


"His health isn't as sensitive an issue in Russian politics as it used to 
be," said an administration official. "It now looks more likely than not that 
the constitutional processes would be followed if he passed from the scene. 
There has been a steady institutionalization of the constitutional rules." 


Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's popularity -- coming after Yeltsin's practice 
of firing a succession of prime ministers -- also has suggested that new 
leaders are emerging in Moscow, and that they plan to fight for power through 
the electoral process. 


"It is a great achievement today that nobody in Russia seems to be thinking 
about taking power in any other means than by the ballot box," said Keith 
Bush, a Russian analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies 
in Washington. "I think we often lose sight of how big an accomplishment that 
is." 


*******


#13
CHUBAIS AGAINST BARRING FATHERLAND-ALL RUSSIA FROM ELECTIONS


MOSCOW. Dec 1 (Interfax) - The CEO of the Russian electricity
monopoly Unified Energy Systems, Anatoly Chubais, has confirmed his
readiness to work on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's campaign staff on
the condition that the staff is led by someone else, and that he is
against the idea of barring the Fatherland-All Russian coalition from
the upcoming parliamentary elections.
At a press conference at Interfax's main office on Wednesday,
Chubais said that he would work on Putin's campaign staff if asked. "But
there was no talk of my being chief of the campaign staff," he said.
He said that as far as he knows the staff leadership is comprised
of "absolutely professional, strong and energetic people who are quite
fit for their jobs."
The press conference given by Chubais and ex-prime minister Sergei
Kiriyenko was devoted to the parliamentary future of the Union of Right-
wing Forces, for which Chubais heads the campaign staff and Kiriyenko
tops the federal electoral list. Both of them said that the names of
their posts and who is subordinate to whom do not matter much to them.
"For me and for Sergei it's not the post or subordination that matters.
What is important is understanding what the country needs and what
should be done," Chubais said.
"Our goal is to implement the program of the Union of Right-wing
Forces," Kiriyenko said. "To do so, we must win power in the 2003-04
elections, or in 2007-2008," he said.
He said he is categorically against the hypothetical possibility of
barring the Fatherland-All Russia coalition from the December 19
parliamentary elections. "We may have disagreements with representatives
of the nomenclature capitalism. But no one has the right to deprive
those supporting nomenclature capitalism of their right to have their
representatives in parliament," said Kiriyenko.
In further comments on the election theme, Chubais said that Russia
"still lacks a mechanism for objective vote counting" and that there are
many examples of this, including the Primorye territory, "where the
local authorities are half-bandit," and, unfortunately, his native St.
Petersburg, where the local authorities are violating the rights of the
Yabloko party.
"Democracy is a bad method of management. But the other methods are
even worse. Our task is to minimize mistakes," he said.


*******