#40 - JRL 2008-25 - JRL Home
RIA Novosti
February 4, 2008
Russia to stop using Ukrainian radars
MOSCOW. (Military commentator Nikita Petrov for RIA Novosti) - The Federation
Council, the upper house of Russia's parliament, has approved the January 25
decision of the lower house to denounce the agreement with Ukraine on the use of
its early warning radars.
The bill will be forwarded to the president for approval. If he signs the
relevant decree and the document is published in the official press, the
agreement will be sent to Kiev along with notification that the Kremlin will
stop using its Dnepr radars in Beregovo near Mukachevo, and Nikolayevka near
Sevastopol.
Six to 12 months later, as specified in the intergovernmental agreement, the
Ukrainian radars will stop supplying Russia with information about the launches
of strategic missiles in the southwestern and western zones.
General of the Army Nikolai Pankov, state secretary and deputy defense
minister of Russia, said one of the reasons for the decision was Kiev's
intention to join NATO.
But that is not the main reason. First, Ukraine may join the bloc only after
holding a national referendum to learn public opinion, which does not seem to
support the intention of the incumbent president, prime minister and
parliamentary speaker.
And second, the Kremlin cannot stop its early warning cooperation with
Ukraine, allegedly because Ukraine wants to join NATO, and at the same time
advocate mutually beneficial relations in the missile sphere.
The January 25 parliamentary session, which approved the termination of the
radar agreement with Ukraine, also decided to prolong the agreement with Kiev on
the warranty servicing of Russia's largest strategic missiles, the R-36M (NATO
classification SS-18 Satan) and the subsequent R-36M2 Voevoda missile.
Satan, which can carry 10 independently targeted nuclear charges, was
designed at the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Dnepropetrovsk, in the south of
central Ukraine. Under the 1992 Lisbon agreement between Russia, Ukraine,
Belarus, Kazakhstan and the United States, Ukraine may not produce such missiles
or have other types of strategic weapons.
This is why it partly scrapped the Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95MS Bear
strategic bombers and turned the rest over to Russia as debt repayment.
The Dnepropetrovsk plant, where the Voevoda was made in Soviet times, now
produces trolleybuses, but its missile designers still provide routine
maintenance to and repair Satans, when and if necessary, under the agreement
prolonged by the Russian parliament. Russia has only 75 such missiles now, but
they form the core of its strategic deterrence force.
The decision to stop ABM cooperation with Ukraine was made for pragmatic
reasons. Colonel General Vladimir Popovkin, commander of the Russian Space
Forces, said that the Dnepr radars, for whose information Russia pays $1.3
million annually, exhausted their service warranty in 2005 and their
modernization would cost at least $20 million. Is it worth it?
Unlike the radars in Azerbaijan, Belarus and Kazakhstan, the Ukrainian
systems are not manned by Russian officers. Both the qualifications of the
radars' civilian Ukrainian personnel and the data they provide to Russia are
questionable.
The Sevastopol radar is the largest of the two problems because unlicensed
radio stations of vessels fishing in the Black Sea use the same frequency. If
not for information from the satellites monitoring the region, the data from
Dnepr could be interpreted to indicate an incoming live missile. Russia's Space
Forces have to recheck information from that radar, losing time and money, which
is crucial for organizing a reply strike in a war.
Russia will also stop using the Ukrainian radar because it now has a radar
supplying the same type information, but better. Last year, the Voronezh-MD
radar, which is cheaper to maintain, was put on test duty at the Lekhtusi
village near St. Petersburg. The Ukrainian radars are manned by 80 specialists,
while a crew of 15 is enough for the Voronezh.
Moreover, the range of the Dnepr is 4,000 km (2,486 miles), while the
effective range of the Voronezh is 6,000 km (3,729 miles).
When another Voronezh radar, under construction near Armavir in southern
Russia, is put on combat duty, Russia will no longer need the Ukrainian radars.
The Russian Foreign Ministry will most likely send the notification terminating
the use of the Mukachevo and Sevastopol radars when the Armavir radar is put on
test duty.
Colonel General Popovkin said Russia would eventually stop using the radars
in Belarus (the Volga radar in Gantsevichi, near Baranovichi), Azerbaijan (the
Daryal in Gabala, near Mingechaur), and Kazakhstan (the Dnepr, Daryal-U and
Dnestr radars near Lake Balkhash), although not in 2008 or 2009.
The Gabala radar has recently caused quite an uproar. First, its service life
is nearly exhausted, and Russia pays Azerbaijan $7 million a year for leasing
the station manned by Russian officers, whose families live in a nearby
settlement. The Armavir radar will cover Gabala's zone of operation, and so
Russia could stop using it.
But the Kremlin has proposed that the Pentagon use the Gabala radar to
monitor air and missile launches in the Middle East, primarily from Iran, on the
condition that Washington renounces its plans to deploy ABM elements in Eastern
Europe.
If Washington accepts the offer, the Gabala radar would be modernized and its
service warranty prolonged.
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