#25 - JRL 2008-174 - JRL Home
Moscow Times
September 25, 2008
War Puts Russia on U.S. Vote Agenda
By Nikolaus von Twickel / Staff Writer
When U.S. Senators Barak Obama and John McCain go live on air to battle over
foreign policy in their first presidential debate Friday, last month's conflict
with Georgia might mean that Russia will feature more prominently, the
candidates' top advisers said.
Viewers should not expect a fiery debate on this point, however, as the topic
is still likely to be overshadowed by the drama of the global financial meltdown
and attention to places like Iraq and Afghanistan, where U.S. troops are on the
ground.
"I think Russia is a secondary issue in foreign policy in this campaign,"
Frederick Kagan, a Foreign Policy adviser to McCain, said in a telephone
interview this week.
"The United States is at war [in Iraq and Afghanistan], and these theaters
are not within Russia," Kagan, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise
Institute, said from Washington.
Michael McFaul, Obama's adviser on Russia, said foreign policy was still a
secondary issue for most American voters. "After last week's events [on Wall
Street], this is even more so," McFaul said in a telephone interview from
Stanford University, California, where he is a professor of political science
and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
"The economic debate has wiped out" U.S. media attention on Russia, he said.
"It will come up again Friday, but whether it is still alive next week, I am not
sure."
Worse, there might be boredom ahead, as there is not much separating the
candidates' when it comes to relations with Moscow, and the war in Georgia has
not done much to change opinions.
"There is no disagreement between me and Michael about the nature of the
current Russian regime and that has been true for some time," Kagan said.
But both agreed that the conflict had pushed the issue further up the agenda.
"The Russian invasion of Georgian territory was a pretty fundamental turning
point in international history," Kagan said, adding that the debate about Russia
would have been even milder without the conflict over South Ossetia.
McFaul said the present discussion was already markedly stronger than in the
primary debates, where Russia "was really an afterthought."
McFaul offered another reason why Russia might not be such a tame topic after
all.
While the candidates' positions on Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan were
quite well known, Russia was a relatively new issue.
"People don't know much about their positions," McFaul said. "It can be more
volatile."
As might be expected, his opinion of McCain's position that some of his
statements in the past have been "reckless bluster" was lower than his take on
Obama's position, which he described as more "nuanced."
McFaul scoffed at the notion that McCain was tough on Moscow while Obama was
soft.
"I just hate those terms to be honest. I don't know what hard-liner,
soft-liner means," he said, suggesting that the more interesting question is who
has the more effective strategy for defending American national interests.
The problem with McCain, he argued, was not so much that he was taking a hard
line but that he had no strategy for Russia.
As an example, he singled out McCain's demand to expel Russia from the Group
of Eight.
"I don't know whether this is hard line or soft line, I just think it is bad
policy," McFaul said.
Obama's has said the move would pose a greater risk by isolating Russia.
Not surprisingly, perhaps, Obama appears to be more popular among Moscow's
political elite than McCain.
"McCain would simply be a catastrophe for the whole world," said Sergei
Markov, a State Duma deputy in the Kremlin-friendly United Russia party.
He called the Republican candidate a "mad pensioner" and described his
running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, as a "housewife, chosen by mere
chance."
Markov also accused McCain of warmongering and put him in the neoconservative
camp, which had "organized the war in Iraq, was the catalyst for the war in
South Ossetia, is ready to go to war with Iran and might lead to World War III."
He echoed earlier comments by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, calling the
conflict in Georgia "a Cold War campaign against Russia" that helped McCain
catch Obama in the polls.
McCain has a record of critical comments about Putin, having described him as
a "a dangerous person" and said he looked into his eyes he saw three letters "a
K, a G and a B" in reference to U.S. President George W. Bush's statement
after his first meeting with then-President Putin that he had looked into his
eyes and "got a sense of his soul."
While McCain is sticking with an extremely critical approach, Obama may yet
to have made up his mind.
Christopher Preble, director for foreign policy studies at the CATO
Institute, cautioned against labeling the Illinois senator as the more "liberal"
foreign policy maker. While McCain had indeed taken a tough stance toward
Moscow, "Senator Obama just does not have the same long track record as McCain,"
he said.
Preble pointed out that Democratic officials like Madeleine Albright and
Richard Holbrooke had been "pretty hard line" vis-a-vis Moscow.
Nicolai Petro, a political science professor at the University of Rhode
Island, argued that campaign rhetoric was not necessarily a strong indicator for
what policies would be adopted after a new government is in office.
"Much depends on personal relationships," he said in a telephone interview,
adding that regardless of who wins, their foreign policy team won't be clear
before next spring, when the relevant positions in the new presidential
administration have been filled.
The debate, to be held at the University of Mississippi, begins at 8 p.m.
local time, 11 a.m. Moscow time, and will be carried live on CNN and the
Internet.
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