#9 - RW 11-19-04 - RW Home
Moscow Times
November 18, 2004
Tougher Approach But No Surprises With Rice
By Anatoly Medetsky
Staff Writer

As the United States' new top diplomat, Condoleezza Rice might toe a tougher line on issues such as Russian democracy and Iran, but there will be no significant shift in relations between Washington and Moscow, foreign policy experts said Wednesday.

U.S. President George W. Bush nominated Rice, who studied the Soviet Union, speaks Russian and has expressed an admiration for Dostoevsky, to succeed Colin Powell as secretary of state on Tuesday. The U.S. Senate is expected to confirm her nomination.

Rice played a key role in defining the White House's Russia policy as Bush's national security adviser in his first term, making her a familiar face among Moscow officials.

The leader of the nationalist Rodina party, Dmitry Rogozin, said Rice is pragmatic and would be difficult to work with. "We will find a difficult partner in her, but still a partner," he said, Interfax reported. But "we don't expect any surprises with her in this post."

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the official who would be Rice's Russian counterpart, said Russia is ready to work with Rice.

"Condoleezza Rice is an experienced politician, and she is up to date on all issues regarding U.S. foreign policies in her capacity as national security adviser to the U.S. president," he said on a visit to Lisbon, Itar-Tass reported. "We are looking forward to cooperating with her."

"Foreign policy will remain a 100 percent the same," Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the State Duma's Foreign Affairs Committee, said when asked about her nomination Tuesday, Interfax reported.

"It has to be remembered that foreign policy during President Bush's first term was conducted with Rice's active participation," said Mikhail Margelov, head of the Federation Council's Foreign Affairs Committee.

Russia and the United States are close allies in the struggle against terrorism, a partnership that began after President Vladimir Putin quickly called Bush to express his condolences about the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington. Bush and Putin have also developed a warm personal friendship.

However, Rice could be more outspoken on areas where Washington and Moscow disagree and have less patience than Powell in tackling protracted negotiations over those differences, political analysts said.

"As a person who has deeply studied Russia, she can't but notice what is happening in Russia," said Yevgeny Volk, head of the Heritage Foundation's Moscow office. "Some issues that are unpleasant for the Russian authorities will be raised more acutely and persistently."

Those issues could include Putin's plan to scrap popular elections for regional leaders in favor of a system under which he submits names to regional legislatures for their confirmation, as well as freedom of speech and the politically tinged legal assault on Yukos, Volk said. New frictions could include Russia's cooperation in Iran's nuclear power program, he said. Russia is helping Iran build a nuclear power plant despite protests from the United States, which says Tehran is trying to obtain knowledge and material to build nuclear arms.

Margelov said other contentious issues include the transit of Caspian oil, the inclusion of post-Soviet countries in NATO's orbit and a rivalry for influence in other former Soviet republics.

The ongoing war in Chechnya, however, is unlikely to become an issue under Rice. Bush has been accused of avoiding mention of the conflict in exchange for Putin's support in the U.S. war on terrorism. The Kremlin says the fighting in Chechnya is part of the global war on terrorism.

"Replacing Powell with Rice would not lead to any significant changes," said Ivan Safranchuk, an analyst at the Center for Defense Information. "The policy would only change if the president had changed."