#6 - RW 11-19-04 - RW Home
RIA Novosti
November 18, 2004
MODERNIZATION OF RUSSIAN ARMY DOES NOT THREATEN THE WEST

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti military commentator Viktor Litovkin) - The address of President Vladimir Putin at an annual conference with the top leaders of the Russian armed forces created a stir in the Western media. Some media interpreted the president's words that "Russia will soon have unique nuclear systems that have no counterparts in the other nuclear powers" as a resumption of the arms race and, worse still, as a threat to the West, in particular to the US. Even the State Department had to react to this supposition.

We do not view Russia's efforts for nuclear strengthening and modernization as threatening, Deputy Spokesman of the State Department Mr. Adam Ereli said at a briefing in Washington. Russia's efforts in this sphere fully comply with our mutual obligations within the Moscow treaty.

But what are these obligations? The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, signed by Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush in May 2002, stipulated the reduction of the aggregate number of deployed nuclear warheads on both sides to 1,700-2,200 by 2012, and confirmed the two countries' obligations under START-1 signed in July 1991. According to START-1, the sides pledge to notify each other in due time about their new research on nuclear missiles and to provide the requisite information about the said studies.

As far as we know, both sides have honored this provision faultlessly so far. This means that Washington, the White House and the Pentagon have been informed about the new strategic missiles which the Russian army and navy are to receive soon, the mobile ground-based Topol-M and the naval strategic missile Bulava-30, to which President Putin referred in his speech at the above conference.

Likewise, the US administration knows that these new systems do not threaten the US and its allies, but were created to replace the strategic missile systems whose service life has expired or is expiring.

It is difficult to believe that all weapons to be supplied to the Russian armed force next year can threaten the US. Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov mentioned four strategic missiles, nine spacecraft, and five boosters designed - read carefully - for orbiting spacecraft and satellites, two patrol ships, two Tu-160 strategic bombers, and seven modernized Su-27SM frontline fighters, as well as two launchers for the Iskander-M tactical missile system, 17 T-90 tanks and 92 BTR-80 armored personnel carriers.

Taken together, this "formidable arsenal" cannot disrupt Russia's balance with the US or NATO. These weapons are merely a drop in the ocean for the requirements of the Russian armed forces, which have not received new weapons for over ten years.

In addition, Russia's military budget next year cannot compare with its American counterpart. The former is roughly 528 billion rubles (just under $20 billion), while the latter is $450 billion. If one proceeds from "confrontation logic", which is seen by serious military experts as fallacious and outdated, the question "who threatens whom" may be turned on its head. No one in Russia is concerned about it, not even the most virulent critics of Mr. Ivanov and the Kremlin administration. Meanwhile, the problems of modernizing the Russian army mentioned at the conference by both Mr. Putin and Mr. Ivanov are indeed highly critical. And the most important thing here is the minimum level of funding needed for the armed forces, which prevents the country's leadership from making a qualitative leap in the development of the security-related component of the state organism. "More and more money," says the defense minister, "is being allocated, but real resources are becoming scarcer." Why?

The answer is self-evident: the Kremlin administration, government and defense ministry cannot agree on top military planning priorities. Although, paradoxically, these priorities are clearly outlined both in a defense white paper - Current Problems of the Development of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation - and in a report by Sergei Ivanov at the latest conference of the top military brass.

These priorities are: maintaining the potential of the strategic deterrence, improving the quality of the army and naval response to repel present and likely threats, creating scientific, technological and production groundwork for rearming units with state-of-the-art weapons and implementing social measures to boost the prestige of military service. Unfortunately, each of these areas calls for massive, rather than minimal, financial injections.