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RIA Novosti
October 28, 2004
WHAT WILL CHANGE IN THE US AFTER PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov) - Many people in Russia think that John Kerry represents a more restrained and cautious policy and, if he wins the elections, will smooth over and change the results of many actions of George Bush's aggressive administration, which tended to act without regard for the global opinion.

I do not think so. In my opinion, US foreign policy will not change under Mr. Kerry. Most importantly, Mr. Kerry will hardly withdraw from Iraq. The US is not simply bogged down there; it is striving to control global processes.

In the past, the Democrats did not differ much from the Republicans in their desire to dominate international affairs. The bombing of Yugoslavia, ordered by Democratic President Bill Clinton, was a forerunner of the Republicans' military campaign in Iraq. In this sense, both Mr. Kerry and Mr. Bush express the same philosophy: the world is bound to bow to American democracy.

This is why Kerry has chosen to criticize not the Iraq campaign but its accompanying factors, such as the far-fetched thesis of weapons of mass destruction, America's isolation in the international community, inordinate spending, and - the latest news - the disappearance of 380 tons of explosives from Iraqi warehouses, which are now possibly being used in terrorist attacks against the Americans.

This encourages Russian analysts to assume that US foreign policy under Kerry will change only in nuances and details, but not in essence.

On the other hand, the man in the White House is more important for Russia than for many other countries. The reason is the close and even confident relations that have developed between George Bush and Vladimir Putin, mostly on the basis of a common assessment of the terrorist threat. The mysterious personal chemistry emerged in Bush's comment, "I looked the man [Mr. Putin] in the eyes. I was able to get a sense of his soul."

Mr. Bush and his team regularly criticize Moscow for what they view as ineffective attempts to settle the problem of Chechnya. But this does not change their view of Mr. Putin as a loyal ally in the struggle against the global evil of terrorism and of Russia as a country where democracy is growing stronger, although slowly and painfully, and with detours.

It is interesting, in this sense, what Secretary of State Colin Powell said in an interview with the editorial board of USA Today: "I do not see Russia sliding back down into the abyss of the Soviet Union. But they may not be moving as quickly or in as steadied a manner as we might like to see toward ...democracy, but I think they are moving in the correct direction. ...The Russian people came out of the post-Soviet era in a state of total chaos - a great deal of freedom, but it was freedom to steal from the state, and President Putin took over and restored a sense of order in the country and moved in a democratic way."

Many Russians think Mr. Kerry has a somewhat shallow view of this country. The Democratic candidate may say "Treblinka" instead of "Lubyanka," and his team presents Mr. Putin as a politician who is leading Russia back to autocracy and the imperial past.

Anyway, Moscow believes that if their man wins, the Democrats will try to make US-Russian relations more dependent on internal processes in Russia. Russians remember the American Democrats' disappointment over the defeat of Russia's right-wing parties at the Duma elections, their outrage over the Yukos affair, and their recent initiative for a letter signed by 112 global politicians and intellectuals who criticized Russia and President Putin.

But Russian observers do not think Mr. Kerry will proclaim a new cold war against Russia. The most unpleasant thing he may do is provoke a new period of uncertainty in US-Russian relations. But eventually the imperatives of the joint war on terror, and energy cooperation will dispel mistrust and the Democrats' illusions about developments in Russia, say local political scientists.

Most of them believe that a Kerry victory will not lead to major changes in US foreign policy. But there is an interesting theory that is popular these days among the Russian political elite: If re-elected, George Bush might show the world his hidden potential for changing American foreign policy and, possibly, for partially revising his team.

A new attitude to foreign policy is gathering momentum in the Republican Party. Some influential party members may recommend Bush, if he is re-elected, to pursue a more traditional US policy in global affairs. In this case, Bush may become a president who can unite America split over Iraq better than he is doing now.