#5 - RW 10-22-04 - RW Home
RIA Novosti
October 20, 2004
PUTIN'S CONUNDRUM: BUSH OR KERRY?
Moscow, (RIA Novosti political commentator Vladimir Simonov)

Who can protect America better from terrorist attacks: George Bush or John Kerry?

The positions of the presidential candidates on this issue have been clear for a long time. The incumbent is convinced that his Democrat challenger has boxed himself into a dangerous position, which is tantamount to a withdrawal from Iraq. This would immediately become the greatest defeat in the war on terror.

Senator Kerry has fended off these accusations by promising to wage a smarter, more effective and more consistent war on international terrorism. The implication is that his opponent's policy lacks these qualities. Mr. Kerry also criticizes the current president for allegedly failing to mobilize the international community in America's support and leaving the country in a degrading isolation in the midst of the war on terror.

Counterarguments emerged on Tuesday from an expected source: Russia. While speaking at a press conference in Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, President Vladimir Putin made it clear that America was playing such an important role in the international coalition that electoral defeat for George Bush could engender a surge in terrorism across the world.

According to Mr. Putin, the attacks of international terrorism in Iraq are not so much targeted against the international coalition forces deployed there, as they are against Mr. Bush personally.

"International terrorism has set itself the task of doing as much damage to Mr. Bush as possible during the election campaign," the Russian leader stated. "International terrorism has set itself the task of preventing Mr. Bush's reelection for a second term."

In Mr. Putin's opinion, if President Bush fails to win reelection, the terrorists would interpret this as an important tactical victory both over America and the international anti-terrorist coalition, bearing in mind the significant role America plays in it. In the Russian leader's view, anything other than a Republican victory would give al-Qaeda and its accomplices "additional forces" to launch new attacks in various parts of the world.

Mr. Putin's statement, made as it was only two weeks before voting on November 2, is a gift for President Bush. Most newspapers around the world gave it copious coverage, with European analysts inclined to view it as a signal that Mr. Putin would prefer a Bush victory.

In this case, crucial political considerations, which are clearly guiding the Russian leader, have been relegated to a campaign cliche: if Putin is in favor of this candidate, it means he is against the other one.

However, in point of fact, the Russian president seems less inclined to believe that his words will prompt millions of Americans to enter their vote on the touch screen monitors in favor of one particular candidate. This is all the more true given that, as Mr. Putin himself pointed out at the same press conference, the electorate will be voting on more issues than Iraq alone.

The Russian leader seems to have been motivated more by pragmatic politics than pro-Bush PR. Mr. Putin least of all wants to change partners in the middle of the war on terror. He knows his current partner well, enjoys friendly relations with him and is accustomed to his strengths and weaknesses. As the phrase goes, don't change your horses mid-stream...

Having said this, Vladimir Putin is in no way neglecting every possible development in America after November 2. American voters will decide who they trust to lead their country and the Kremlin, as the Russian president said, "will respect any choice of the American people."