#16 - RW 275
Moscow Times
September 25, 2003
Zero Consensus on WMD
By Pavel Felgenhauer

Terrorism and loose weapons of mass destruction are the worst nightmare of the modern world. Terrorists might grab nuclear, chemical or biological WMD and attack a major city. A rogue state might sell WMD to terrorists or use them in some stupid local war over a patch of barren land that some half-insane person believes to be "an indispensable part of the national heritage."

These fears dominated a nonproliferation conference in Moscow last week that gathered an exotic bunch of people: Israelis, Iranians, Russians, Indians, UN officials, U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, Russian Nuclear Power Minister Alexander Rumyantsev, think tankers and researchers from all over world. One could see Iranian and Israeli officials sharing the same table during panel discussions.

All present at the conference agreed the situation is really bad. But that seemed to be the only point of agreement.

Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh, the deputy director general of political affairs at the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated: "We are threatened by Israel -- an enemy that has nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, along with long-range missiles." The Israelis replied that Iran is developing WMD, long-range missiles and does not recognize Israel's right to exist.

Almost everyone present denounced the United States for double standards in not punishing Israel for having nukes, while chasing Saddam Hussein out of Baghdad, persecuting Iran and North Korea just for aspiring to have some.

U.S. speakers at the conference agreed that one could not solve the Middle East problem while applying double standards in dealings with Israel. But these statements did not reflect any imminent change in U.S. policies, since most Americans present were liberal Democrats. As one of them told me: "Our Republican colleagues are now all in government, ruling the world and too busy to attend conferences in Moscow."

Many of these Democrats were ranking officials in Bill Clinton's administration and have now become think tankers. When in government the same people -- as far as I can recall -- were rather tight-lipped about the issue of U.S. "double standards." How much of their present foresight will survive when, and if, the Democrats take over government in 2004 or 2008?

Russian government officials attending the conference did not mince their words in denouncing the West. Natalya Kalinina, an aide to Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, and Anatoly Antonov, ambassador-at-large at the Foreign Ministry, told the audience that Western nations are doing virtually nothing to make good on their pledges to increase help to Russia in destroying WMD and keeping dangerous nuclear and radioactive materials safe.

The United States, Japan and EU countries are today providing assistance in dismantling Soviet-era WMD, but Russian officials claim that all this aid is a leftover of programs announced in the 1990s. Nothing has materialized of the "$20 billion in 10 years" that the G-7 countries offered to spend on making safe WMD in the framework of the Global Partnership. Russian officials also state that large chunks of the aid that is being provided is squandered on paying lavish fees to worthless Western consultants.

General Gennady Evstafyev from the Foreign Intelligence Service told the conference that the U.S. use of nonproliferation problems as a pretext for attacking Iraq has backfired and created even more instability and intensified attempts by North Korea and Iran to acquire WMD. Evstafyev also accused the United States of designing a new generation of low-yield nukes for possible use in local conflicts, a development that is unnerving Russia.

Russian intelligence services believe that terrorist groups are not likely to be able to use regular nukes anytime soon. But such nongovernmental groups may make substitute WMDs -- such as so-called dirty bombs -- using highly radioactive materials that are inadequately stored or guarded all over Russia and in other former Soviet republics.

The conference in Moscow reflected the total disarray in the international community over terrorism and WMD. The term "community," in fact, does not reflect the reality of the situation.

The absence of any meaningful consensus will surely lead to more unchecked terrorism and proliferation that in turn will precipitate more unilateral military action by the present U.S. administration.

Pavel Felgenhauer is an independent defense analyst.

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