#7 - RW 274
Moskovskiye Novosti
September 16, 2003
THE NATION'S CHIEF VOTER MAKES HIS CHOICE
Elections in Russia are becoming alternative-free
Author: Dmitry Furman
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE KREMLIN IS SEEKING TO ENSURE VICTORY FOR THE LOYAL AKHMAD KADYROV AS PRESIDENT OF CHECHNYA. THE GOVERNMENT IS OPPRESSING POLITICAL ACTIVITY AMONG THE PUBLIC BY ALL POSSIBLE MEANS - BUT ANY OUTLET FOR THIS BUILD-UP OF ENERGY MAY HAVE UNPREDICTABLE CONSEQUENCES.

After a conversation with Vladimir Putin, Aslanbek Aslakhanov made the painful decision to withdraw from the race for president of Chechnya. He must have been appointed to a very lucrative position for that. Hussein Djabrailov made a similar decision after a talk with Alexander Voloshin. A third quite serious contender for the supreme office, Malik Saidulayev, has bowled out too.

It is clear that the Kremlin seeks to ensure victory to one whom the nation's chief (if not the only) voter - Vladimir Putin - has chosen for the post of Chechnya's president. This can be done any time and through different means. Probably, the election would seem more democratic if Kadyrov won by a majority of some 60% of the vote. Nonetheless, the Kremlin has chosen the most radical method, which leaves practically no room for competition in the election race. Why has the Kremlin been doing this?

Evidently, Putin and his administration are afraid of debate and reciprocal accusations between candidates and their supporters rather than a failure to ensure victory for Kadyrov. For the candidates are likely to argue over sensitive issues (and Chechnya is one big sensitive issue). They may talk too much and agitate the public. The president and his administration fear that the people of Chechnya may be too politically active. If they feel they are free to speak and, even more, believe that their voting is of decisive importance, the consequences may be unpredictable. Should there be any alternative, then separatism would gain the upper hand, as was the case in the Baltic Republics of the former USSR.

Just like the former Baltic Republics used to be part of the USSR, though part of some particular kind, Chechnya is part of Russia. Liberal presidential election in Chechnya might become a reason for concern of all Russia. In the meantime, the current election in Chechnya is a model for Russia. Apart from the desire to ensure victory to its candidates, the Kremlin wants the election campaign to run smoothly and inconspicuously without disturbing the order in the country and presenting any difficulties. By carrying into effect new regulations for the mass media for coverage of the election campaign the Kremlin has tried to block all possible outlets for public outcry.

Elections in Russia have been tending to be a kind of fiction and rite since 1991 when Belovezhskaya Pushcha agreements that established the CIS were signed and it became a concern of vital importance for the ruling party not to let the opposition win elections. Russian has no options, it must continue to follow this line. But as there being ever less room for the alternative, the public's suppressed desire to declare its will is building up, which makes any outlets it may find more dangerous. That is why each subsequent election is bound to offer less alternative that the previous one (in 2004 Putin is to obtain more votes than in 2000).

In all respects Russia is repeating the way of the Soviet one- party system's evolution. In the beginning the Soviet Party which was supposed to be in power for ever allowed some limited multi-power system and freedom of speech, and the relations within the party were really democratic. But eventually it ruled out any slightest deviation from the ritual procedures, like total "for" votes and agreed speeches. When the government decided to turn off this way, it was too late: the first liberal election in the USSR proved the last one.

Trying to exclude alternatives and unpredictability the government is making them inevitably recoil, the impact being thousands times as powerful. It is more or less clear what is building up in Chechnya. The situation may develop in different ways but in any case is some 20-30 years streets in Chechen cities will be getting their names after Jahar Dudayev and Aslan Maskhadov. The situation in Russia is less clear. But there can be no doubt that sooner or later the present calm and absence of alternative will give way to absolute unpredictability.

(Translated by Sergei Kolosov)

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