#6 - RW 273
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
September 9, 2003
DIPLOMACY OF STRENGTH: A NEW SEASON
Its dawn may degenerate into decline soon
Time for the United States to change its aggressive foreign policy
Author: Aleksei Bogaturov, director of the International Relations Forum
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

IT SEEMS THAT AMERICA WILL EASE ITS BULLYING TACTICS IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WITH ELECTIONS COMING UP IN THE UNITED STATES, THE DEMOCRATS ARE CALLING BUSH'S FOREIGN POLICY INCOMPETENT, DOOMED TO FAIL, AND LACKING IN CLEAR AND REALISTIC OBJECTIVES.

This summer has brought only problems for advocates of the diplomacy of strength.

Firstly, despite optimistic forecasts and unlike Afghanistan, Iraq has become an arena of terrorist warfare against the occupiers, military and civilian alike.

Secondly, despite all the efforts of the British government, scandal is flaring in London over the involvement of top civil servants in misleading Parliament over Britain's decision to join the war on Iraq. Tony Blair is already sacrificing Cabinet ministers.

Thirdly, elements of tension between leading politicians are undeniable in the US Administration.

Rumors about disagreements between Secretary of State Colin Powell and his "official opponents" Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and National Security Advisor Condolleezza Rice may have failed to have any practical effect on politics in the United States. All the same, they are extremely significant. Powell is sending a message: Congress elections are coming up, followed by the presidential race, and the time has come to change policy in order to take into consideration opponents' maneuvers and voter attitudes.

This is a senior official, not the president himself, advocating the smart maneuver. Either Powell is not afraid of showing that he is more farsighted than the president, or Bush is determined to go into the election with pugnacious slogans, or Powell and Bush are playing the same game with the old good cop - bad cop scenario.

In general, all this looks like preparations for a change of tactics. It seems that America will ease its bullying tactics in international affairs in the near future.

North Korea remains a fly in the ointment. Chinese and Russian diplomats spared neither time nor effort in persuading North Korea to agree to multilateral negotiations over the quasi-nuclear crisis of the North Korean nuclear program. The governments of Japan and South Korea performed miracles in convincing Washington to forgive Pyongyang its hostile gestures and initiate a dialogue with North Korea again. All to no avail.

It might have occurred to Kim Jong-Il that Bush's team would be easier to handle closer to the election, and that it would benefit North Korea not to agree to American demands for the time being. Kim Jong-Il's obstinacy is even irritating China.

All over the world, the so-called arc of instability has transformed into a specific conflict line, from Palestine via Iraq and Afghanistan to North Korea. To a considerable extent, all four conflicts may be attributed to lengthy authoritarian rule in these countries. In only one of them (Palestinian) is US diplomacy a peacekeeping factor rather than an irritant. In the other three conflicts, the deterioration of the situation can to some extent be attributed to Washington's aggressive policy.

The Democrats are attacking the Republicans in the United States. They are calling Bush's foreign policy incompetent, doomed to fail, and lacking in clear and realistic objectives.

It seems that Bush is getting nervous, for the first time since he took office. Rumsfeld has been urgently dispatched to Baghdad. Reshuffles are underway in the upper echelons of security structures. Will US foreign policy be amended as well?

(Translated by A. Ignatkin)

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