#20 - RW 273
Argumenty i Fakty
September 10, 2003
QUEENS AND PAWNS ON THE KREMLIN CHESSBOARD
The Duma chess game: liberals playing white, Communists playing black
Author: Vyacheslav Kostikov
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

THE RUSSIAN POLITICAL FORCES ARE CHECKING THEIR POSITIONS AS THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS APPROACH. SINCE THE MAIN RIVALS - UNITED RUSSIA AND THE COMMUNIST PARTY - MAY WIN AN APPROXIMATELY EQUAL NUMBER OF VOTES, SINGLE-MANDATE DUMA MEMBERS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT AFTER THE ELECTION.

In signing the decree to launch the election campaign late last week, the president made his first move: e2 to e4. Thus, the election game has started off. Speaking in chess terms, who will be the queens, bishops and pawns? What will the opening game be like? What will happen in the end-game? This is a matter of great importance for President Putin. The composition of the next Duma will be to a great degree responsible for political stability in the country as well as efficiency of executive authorities. We have undertaken an analysis of the election game. Extending the chess metaphor, liberal forces and reformers are the white, communists and national patriots - the black.

THE CURRENT POSITIONS OF THE WHITE SIDE ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Establishing the United Russia party, Kremlin instructors supplied it with huge administrative and information resources. Vladimir Putin, the white king, has every opportunity for strong game, the outcome being quite predictable.

Boris Gryzlov, the queen, is another strong player in the ranks of the white. He can move about freely, backed up by the Kremlin administration and police. But if the campaign named "Operation Werewolves in Uniform" fails, the queen may be sacrificed. Apart from the said above, Gryzlov is responsible for actions on the Chechen flank which has been the scene for a not very advantageous middlegame recently. Nonetheless, analysts consider that Gryzlov may assume the post of speaker in the Duma of the next convocation, provided he relinquishes the office of minister of internal affairs.

Emergencies and Natural Disasters Minister Sergei Shoigu and Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov could possibly claim the role of the queen too. But there can be only one queen, so they will have to content themselves as rooks. By the way, this piece can be blocked by pawns, if necessary.

Among the white side is Federation Council speaker Sergei Mironov. His status allows him to be designated as bishop (he is the third senior official in the state who has immediate links to the white king). Alas! His influence proved too weak by the start of the game. His Party of Life is a novice in a political arena well-trodden by alien pawns. The bishop needs to be discreet in order not to become a pawn.

Despite his old "pink" coloring, Duma speaker Gennadi Seleznev is in fact a white player. He has failed to fulfill the task set before him: to draw as many pawns away from the Communists as possible. The first few moves put his Russia's Renaissance party into fatal time- trouble. Surely enough, Seleznev will take a set in the next Duma. But it is a question whether he will remain the speaker. So far he seems to be a bishop.

The white have such experienced players as leaders of Yabloko and the Union of Right Forces, Grigori Yavlinsky and Boris Nemtsov respectively. In the previous games they were considered to be heavy- weights. But the over the past three years they have only been losing pawns. They are staying afloat due to contributions from oligarchs, who promote them in the media and provide them with effective PR consulting. Their current rating (5-7%) reduces them into pawns. But the king will definitely want to have in his entourage some smart knights who are well-known in the West. The Kremlin stable will most likely grant the king's horses to them. Nemtsov will be given a light chestnut mare, Yavlinsky - a dappled trotter. They will ride into the Duma on these horses. Still, it is never very comfortable to ride somebody else's horse.

As the game draws to an end, it will be interesting to observe the moves of Anatoly Chubais, the knight who has taken a risk in positioning himself on the flank of the URF. Undoubtedly, he will be able to afford shining armor. But what if the URF horse collapses under his weight? For it is equal to a horse carrying an elephant.

Now the pawns, of which there are eight, of course. One or two may obtain seats in the parliament. These will be Agrarian Party leader Mikhail Lapshin and sexual morality watchdog Gennadi Raikov.

A group of six pawns stands out against the forty-four parties admitted to the election race. It includes Iosif Kobzon (the Party of Peace), Mikhail Prusak (the Democratic Party), Ivan Grachyov (Promotion of Entrepreneurship), Yelena Panina (the United Party of Industrialists), Dmitry Rogozin and Pavel Borodin (the Eurasian Party). The latter is a match for a number of bishops, though.

THE CURRENT POSITIONS OF THE BLACK KING AND OTHER PLAYERS

The black king Gennadi Zyuganov is holding the strong position on the left flank. In the opinion of analysts, his chances are even improving against the previous elections. But his rating, which is estimated at 28-30% by the Russian Center for Public Opinion and Market Research, may harm his position. The white may start regarding him as too dangerous and attacking him violently in the center and on the flanks. They have already restricted his access to television. The next step may be defamation.

Sergei Glaziev was supposed to be the black queen. He had enjoyed the great favor of Communists. But he got accustomed to it so quickly and easily, that Communists began to fear lest he should outpace them. Consequently, he was refused membership in the party. Besides, the white offered some alluring prospects. Anyway, Glaziev was quick to learn to move cornerwise and jump over heads. It is hard to predict whether he will be able to make a new king in the course of time. It depends on the feed.

Sophisticated chess player Boris Berezovsky would like very much to try on the mantle of the bishop. But the black king is very concerned about his proneness to various intrigues and plots in the king's court. However, everybody loves money and Berezovsky can be made a knight altogether. If he has TV bishop Sergei Dorenko as outrunner, they are sure to cause a lot of turmoil, hopefully in their own camp.

LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovksy has been pretending to be an independent player. However, analysis of previous games shows that at crucial points he takes the side of the white after beneficial bargaining. He has done good preparation for the game and may obtain some 3%-4% of votes more than at the previous election. He will never be the queen, of course. But he makes a good knight.

It is not ruled out that some yet unknown figure will appear on the ranks of the left-wing forces. Considerable funds will be provided to this end. This player is going to be a match for bishop. But he will act according to oligarch's instructions.

The black have at their disposal not only Marxist-Leninist theory, but also several powerful figures. Apparently, these are Valentin Kuptsov and Aleksander Lukyanov. They act discreetly and quietly but are capable of rebuffing their opponents sharply and even associates, if necessary. Unfortunately for them, Zyuganov knows that they are prepared for castling.

As far as black pawns are concerned, Natalia Kharitonova and Nikolai Kondratenko may get into the Duma. Nikolai Gubenko is also prepared for a fight. The rest of the pawns including Victor Ampilov, Vasily Shandybin, Victor Tyulkin, Tatyana Astrakhankina and Yelena Drapeko are not less valuable.

PECULIARITIES OF THE RUSSIAN END-GAME

There are a lot players on both sides of the political chessboard who will pretend to be bishops or knights. These are different parties which claim they look after people's interests, justice and promote patriotism. But people have little confidence in such disguised bishops and knights. In order not to be ousted from the chessboard, some of them will be faced with very close competition in the end- game. They will make a great deal of trouble and quarrels, but get few seats in the Duma.

Since the main rivals - United Russia and the Communist Party - may win an approximately equal number of votes (25%-30%), single- mandate parliamentarians will be of particular importance. There are 187 such members in the present Duma. It is their votes that will be giving advantage to this or that party. It is possible that some single-mandate pawns will be valued as knights.

This is how the situation may develop in future, but different combinations are possible as well.

(Translated by Sergei Kolosov)

CDI Russia Weekly #273 ~ Contents