#17 - RW 272
Russkii Kurier
September 2, 2003
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FUTURE DUMA WILL HAVE THREE PARTIES ...
Experts see three evident favorites in the Duma election campaign
Author: Zoya Svetova
[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]

ACCORDING TO POLITICAL SCIENTISTS, IF THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WERE HELD THIS SUNDAY, ONLY THREE PARTIES WOULD MANAGE TO GET OVER THE 5% THRESHOLD. THEY ARE THE COMMUNIST PARTY, UNITED RUSSIA, AND THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA.

Human rights advocates and political scientists gathered yesterday at the Media Development Institute to sketch the portrait of the future Duma, as it appears several days before the presidential decree that will launch the election campaign.

"Carrying out the monitoring on the regional level, we observe how the election technologies of xenophobia and nationalism are used very often," said Alexander Brod, the director of Moscow Bureau for Human Rights.

The human rights advocates noticed some extremist and nationalist manifestations in the propaganda materials of Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR), Communist Party (CPRF), Eurasia, Integration, Union of Patriots of Russia and Eurasian Party. They fear that the future Duma will be more dun than the previous one.

Moscow Bureau for Human Rights made a proposal to the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) two months ago to create supervisory boards, which would keep track of different manifestations of xenophobia, react upon them during the election campaign and file their respective petitions to the Prosecutor's Office. The CEC sent its answer on August 7, where it was proposed to present such an application to ... Ministry of Education, because these questions are outside the competence of the CEC.

Valery Borschev, a member of Presidential Commission for Human Rights, says the appearance of anti-Semitic and xenophobic slogans during the election campaign is not a coincidence.

Borschev: "I don't think that this case concerns some lost politicians. Some people from the state structures support this direction. As long as the CEC didn't respond to the proposals of human rights advocates, it means that it takes on responsibility for instances of the Criminal Code being violated during the election."

He thinks that some representatives of the authorities have an interest in nationalist chauvinists being present in the Duma. It would be easy then to pass such laws as the law on citizenship, which was passed at the last session.

Dmitry Olshansky, the head of the Center of Strategic Analysis and Forecasts (CSAF), stated that the present situation in Russia developed in such a way that the appearance of some serious nationalist force in the near future was quite possible. It is difficult to say if it is a party or bloc. There were ratings of political parties, which will go into struggle for places in the Duma, in the research that was presented to journalists. According to the CSAF expert survey of August 18-26, among 59 experts concerning 10 parameters: the power of the regional party structures, creative potential of the "staffs", administrative resource, financial resource, charisma of leaders etc.

These studies showed that if the election were held this Sunday, only three parties would manage to take places in the Duma: the CPRF, United Russia and the LDPR. Dmitry Olshansky comments on the situation: "The CPRF is leading on total potential. However, its rating doesn't increase. One senses that this party profits by its past achievements. The communists have a powerful inertial voting resource - 30%. United Russia, on the contrary, has some increase in its rating but there are some problems: weak creative resources of the party campaign team."

Judging by the results of the poll, the increase in the LDPR's potential became "a sensation of this summer". In opinion of the experts, "charisma" of Zhirinovsky is beyond comparison. Zyuganov takes the second place and Yavlinsky - the third position. The leaders of United Russia are at the fourth place. The outsiders of this list are the leaders of Union of Right Forces (URF). If to believe in the experts' appraisals, the anti-rating of the latter, taking into account the participation of Kokh and Chubais in their election campaign, is increasing more quickly than the rating of their attractiveness.

Olshansky explains: "Liberal trends become less and less popular. There is a question: whom will the state-sector intelligentsia vote for? They would hardly vote for the LDPR or communists. So, a reserve ruling party, the People's Party, appears. Clever regional, who are afraid of excessive centralization of government, wouldn't mind having the eggs in different baskets. That's why they are looking at the People's Party, which is on friendly terms with the Kremlin."

Dmitry Olshansky wouldn't consider it a bad thing if the URF and Yabloko didn't make it into the next Duma. In his opinion, the present attitude of the public toward the democratic parties is "compensation for the August 1998 default." As for the authorities, in opinion of Olshansky, "it is preferable for them to see Glaziev in the Duma, not Yavlinsky. The face is fresher."

Nevertheless, the political soothsayers will be able to make a real prediction of the election results only in late October. When all are registered, and when "large-bloc" party building is over. The political alliances can not only exert influence upon the results of the election, but also change the present party and political system for the sake of some specific interests of a specific election.

(Translated by Gregory Malyutin)

CDI Russia Weekly #272 ~ Contents