#5 - RW 271
Russian Political Scientist Doubts North Korean Negotiations Will Be Successful

MOSCOW. Aug 25, 2003 (Interfax) - It is impossible to solve the North Korean nuclear problem until the authorities in P'yongyang and Washington change, the head of the Carnegie Moscow Center for Non- Proliferation Aleksxandr Pikayev said.

"The situation will not be fully resolved as long as North Korea has its incumbent regime and the Bush administration remains in office in the United States," he said at a press conference in Moscow on Monday.

Pikayev "is pessimistic" about the prospects of the future negotiations on the North Korean nuclear problem, which will take place in Beijing from August 27-29 with the participation of China, Russia, North Korea, South Korea, the United States and Japan.

"Under these circumstances it is more important to prevent unconsidered actions rather than to achieve some solid results," Pikayev said.

He defined as "unconsidered actions" North Korea's possible nuclear tests in September or total inspections of North Korean vessels, which are an idea of some members of the US administration.

Still, "the very fact of the negotiations is a great success," Pikayev said. "Russia's participation in the negotiations is a great success for Russian diplomats."

Yet he thinks, "Russia has a very limited influence on North Korea and Washington at the negotiations. The maximum effect it can aspire for is some mediating functions," the political scientist said.

He thinks the United States will not agree to give security guarantees to P'yongyang.

"Washington is not ready to sign a non-aggression pact with North Korea, because that would mean the loss of face for Bush," he stressed.

"If no agreement is reached before spring, and that is quite possible, the North Korean issue will be delayed until early 2005 when the United States elects a new president," Pikayev said.

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