#16 - RW 271
Argumenty i Fakty
August 19, 2003
Weekly mulls Russia`s foreign policy choices
Text of commentary headlined "Foreign Policy" published by the Russian weekly Argumenty i Fakty on 19 August [Subheadings: Vladimir Putin in the USA. Which is more important - Japan or China?]

It is understandable that the main domestic political fuss is connected with the forthcoming elections. But people have enough work even without them, in particular, the president [Vladimir Putin]. Intensive preparations for his speech to the UN General Assembly in September are being made in his apparatus and at the Foreign Ministry. Vladimir Putin's speech will be devoted to the problems of establishing a new world order.

Then our president will spend three days with [US President] George Bush on his ranch in Texas and will return home via Washington. Even now it is known that the main subject of the talks will be the American president's attempt to bring Russian foreign policy priorities closer to American ones. The main topics can be listed.

Iraq. The positions of the sides on this are sufficiently close anyway. But Bush is trying to persuade us to send a military contingent to Iraq. NATO. Owing to the USA's efforts this organization is increasingly becoming a global one rather than a north Atlantic one. Washington quietly handed over to it the command of the international military contingent in Afghanistan. Plans for the near future include sending NATO units to Georgia and Azerbaijan. We should be understanding with regard to this...

Belarus. The USA very much wants a change of power in Minsk. To be more specific about it, [it wants] [Belarusian President] Alyaksandr Lukashenka to leave his post. But in Washington they are well aware that this cannot be done without the participation of Moscow. One can only hazard a guess at the reasons why we have become tougher in our demands with regard to Belarus.

At the same time, a knotty situation is taking shape in the Far East. We are faced with a choice because of our desire to expand our exports of raw materials. Whom should we give preference to - China or Japan? We have already promised the Chinese that we will extend the branch of the oil pipeline from eastern Siberia to Daqing [China]. But we have to pay for the building of it ourselves. But the Japanese are willing to pay out their own 20bn dollars for the construction of the pipeline as far as Nakhodka.

[Russian] Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov is going to Beijing in September to sort the situation out, and Vladimir Putin is to meet the Japanese prime minister [Junichiro Koizumi] in October. Everyone is well aware that we should not offend the Chinese - they are major customers for and consumers of our industrial goods. But it is a shame to miss out on the Japanese offer.

Just a few words about Mikhail Kasyanov. He is most likely to become the main target in the gathering information war. It has fallen to the prime minister's lot to take all the bad things upon himself on the eve of the presidential elections. He may even find himself "figuring" in criminal cases, such as Far Eastern fish controversies or shady deals in Krasnaya Polyana in Sochi.

Another thing is that the president will be out of the country five or six times before the elections. All that time Kasyanov will be in charge of the economy. He will be the one to answer for it if something happens. God forbid, naturally. [Endall]

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