#16 - RW 270
Moscow News
August 20-26, 2003
Demagoguery Comes with a Big Price Tag
By Dmitry Babich
MN foreign desk editor

Last week Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Russia had no plans to move Black Sea Fleet headquarters. The fleet is not going to leave Sevastopol although there is a plan to build another Black Sea Fleet base in Novorossiysk.

News agencies immediately front-paged the minister's statement even though the minister did not seem to have said anything new: Under the 1997 Treaty, the Black Sea Fleet is to remain in Sevastopol until 2017. Why, then, such a keen interest in the matter?

Probably because no other FSU fleet has been involved in so complicated a political game. By trading on the issue's propaganda potential, Russian and Ukrainian politicians seem to be vying with one another in the absurdity of projects that are being proposed on either side. In this context, a sensible assessment of the situation and an attempt to keep in place what there is are seen as a sensation.

Absurdities are being demonstrated on either side. One RF State Duma deputy who recently visited Sevastopol urged the Black Sea Fleet to protect Russia by establishing hegemony in the Mediterranean. Another deputy never tires of repeating that Sevastopol is not part of Ukraine. In response, the Shliakh Peremohi daily described the Black Sea Fleet as the fifth column, proposing that a U.S. naval base be deployed in the Crimea.

Meanwhile, NATO experts are working on a plan to shift the Ukrainian Navy to North Atlantic standards. The NATO project, however, will most likely be scuttled by the passage about "optimizing the numerical strength of the Navy?s command personnel." Ukrainian admirals did not fight through the 1990s privatization battles to let themselves be optimized by a former adversary. So "Western" demagoguery could easily be dismissed. As for the race of Ukrainian and Russian patriots, it can cause the Black Sea Fleet real damage.

Lets face it: If Russia does not recognize Sevastopol as a Ukrainian city, our fleet will have no hegemony not only in the Mediterranean but even in the Black Sea - if only because under the 2000 Ukrainian Law on Procedure for Access and Conditions of the Presence of Units of the Armed Forces of Foreign States on Ukrainian Territory, warships and military units of states that do not recognize Ukraines independence and territorial integrity are simply not allowed into its territory. Furthermore, the ban is extended to troops of those countries that "make territorial claims on Ukraine." Incidentally, since Ukraine is a neutral state, in the event of outbreak of hostilities it can, under the Geneva Convention, intern or order Russian warships out of its territory within 24 hours. It so happens that advocates of the idea of declaring Sevastopol a "Russian city" are working toward the liquidation of the Black Sea Fleet.

Ukraine's bellicose law clashes with Soviet-era regulations, and this clash could sink more than just one squadron. Say, Ukrainian law provides for "a possibility of conducting no-notice checks of compliance by units of the armed forces of other states with the conditions of the Treaty." Meanwhile, under the Russian Navy regulations, foreigners are not allowed on RF Navy installations in principle. Since Ukrainians are foreign citizens, the scene is set for conflict.

What is to be done then? For starters, it should be understood that both the 2000 Ukrainian law and the dreams of restoring Soviet order are simply unrealistic. For the fleet to operate normally, we need allied relations between Ukraine and Russia. But this is a matter for the future. In the meantime, pressing problems need to be dealt with. The Russian-Ukrainian Sub-commission on the RF Black Sea Fleet and Its Presence on Ukrainian Territory has 20 outstanding problems to address. The Russian side, headed by Minister Ilya Klebanov, is looking for a compromise. Instead of "no-notice checks," an institution of liaison officers is being created. Instead of the demand that all beacons be immediately turned over to Ukraine, it is proposed to set up "interaction in facilitating shipping in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov."

Wording has to be precise: The Ukrainian side does not care for the word "joint." The alternative is to move the entire Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk. But then billions of dollars will be lost, as will be warships, aircraft, and, most important, personnel that may prefer to stay on in the Crimea. Might it not be a better idea to come to terms? Demagoguery Comes with a Big Price Tag

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